zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jan 11, 2017 10:12 AM
As Vicent Cignarella, FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg, writes overnight, the “Dollar Rally May End If Dow Fails to Pass 20,000″ and the one variable that might determine if it does, is Donald Trump. Here’s why:
President-elect Donald Trump’s first press conference in six months will need to include some policy specifics if U.S. stocks and the dollar are to continue their post-election rallies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has led the dollar higher since the November election with a correlation above 0.85, but a potential problem for dollar bulls has emerged as two technical indicators show the blue-chip index’s recent surge will leave it short of the 20,000 milestone.
Tom DeMark’s TD Sequential is signaling a pullback in the Dow at the same time mean reversion technicals are flashing caution. The indicator is a trend-reversal technique designed to predict a turn in a market using exhaustion points to determine peaks and troughs. “If everyone anticipates 20,000 will be broken they are already in the market awaiting that breakout, so what impetus is left to move the market above that level,” DeMark said in a Jan. 6 Bloomberg TV interview.