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Yawning Debt Trap Proves the Great Recession is Still On

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news.goldseek.com / By David Haggith / 24 October 2017

While David Stockman stated early this year with resolute certainty that the debt ceiling debate would blow congress up and send the nation reeling over the financial precipice, I avoided jumping on the debt-ceiling bandwagon. While I was convinced […]

Low Interest Rates Subsidize Wealthy Households

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mises.org / Hal Snarr / October 22, 2017

When the economy begins to sink into recession, politicians, mainstream economists, policy wonks, and the Federal Reserve begin beating the economic stimulus drum.

Politicians, however, disagree over the type of stimulus to implement. The center-left party proposes greater expenditures on […]

Key Charts: Gold is Cheap and US Recession May Be Closer Than Think

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goldcore.com / By Mark O’Byrne / October 21, 2017

by Dominic Frisby of Money Week

Every year, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J Valek of investment and asset management company Incrementum put together the report In Gold We Trust – 160-plus pages of charts and thoughts, mostly gold-related, on […]

Low Interest Rates Subsidize Wealthy Households

mises.org / Hal Snarr / October 22, 2017

When the economy begins to sink into recession, politicians, mainstream economists, policy wonks, and the Federal Reserve begin beating the economic stimulus drum.

Politicians, however, disagree over the type of stimulus to implement. The center-left party proposes greater expenditures on public assistance programs. The center-right party […]

Staggering Chart Shows Your Personal Share Of Your State’s Underfunded Pension

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 18, 2017

Back in March we shared the staggering results of a Bankrate survey which found that the average American household couldn’t afford to write a measly $500 check in the event of an unexpected emergency (see: “The Reality Is, Half Of Americans Can’t Afford To Write […]

Hooray! Discretionary Services Spending Finally Back to 2007 Level

themaven.net / by Mike Mish Shedlock / October 17, 2017

The current economic expansion is now the third-longest expansion in U.S. history. It’s also extraordinarily weak. It took 10 years for consumer discretionary spending to reach the level hit in 2007.

Depth of Decline and Extent of Recovery

Liberty Street Economics, a publication of […]

Recession Red Flag Rears Its Ugly Head – Treasury Yield Curve Crashes To Post-Crisis Flats

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 16, 2017

Probably nothing…

The last two times the spread between 30Y and 5Y Treasury bonds was below 90bps, the US economy entered recession…

***

And the 2s10s curve is tumbling too – to its flattest since the crisis…

READ MORE

Be Patient, the Fed Will Screw You Eventually (With Media Praise All The Way)

themaven.net / by Mike Mish Shedlock / October 12, 2017

Policymakers at the Fed are growing increasingly concerned about lagging inflation rates. Mainstream media and most academia pundits are on board preaching the benefits of what in reality is theft.

Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan says the Low 10-Year Yield is an ‘Ominous’ Sign.

[…]

Africa’s Richest Man: Oil Is Not The Way Forward

zerohedge.com / by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com / Sep 26, 2017

The richest man in Africa says crude oil prices would do Nigeria a favor if they stay lower for longer.

***

Last week at the UN General Assembly, Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote, whose main business is in cement but also holds interests […]

Is There a Way Out of This Financial Mess?

armstrongeconomics.com / by Martin Armstrong / Sep 25, 2017

We need to open the door to the future but that is only possible by understanding the past. Paul Volcker back in 1979 in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle “Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, […]

Yield Curve Flashes Recession Warning In Collapse To 10 Year Lows

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Sep 21, 2017 2:46 PM

Since The Fed unveiled its cunning plan to unwind the balance sheet ever so gradually and in an ever so well-telegraphed manner, the US Treasury yield curve has collapsed!

READ MORE

[…]

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed May “Kill The Business Cycle”

goldcore.com / By Mark O’Byrne / September 21, 2017

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed Likely To Create Next Recession

– Is the Fed about to kill the business cycle? – 16 out of 19 rate-hike cycles in past 100 years ended in recession – Total global debt at all time high – see chart […]

Running Out The Clock; They Really Don’t Know What They Are Doing

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Jeffrey P. Snider / September 20, 2017

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Alhambra Investments. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.

If it wasn’t perfectly clear before, and it really was, there is no way it isn’t now. The Fed is not in any way data dependent. The […]

Rate Hike Cycles, Gold, and the “Rule of Total Morons”

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / September 21, 2017

In response to Janet Yellen’s everything is OK speech following today’s balance sheet reduction notice by the FOMC committee, I received an interesting set of comments from Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog regarding rate hike cycles, gold, and stock market peaks.

“Rule of […]

“This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Sep 19, 2017

In an extensive, must-read report published on Monday by Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, the credit strategist unveiled an extensive analysis of the “Next Financial Crisis”, and specifically what may cause it, when it may happen, and how the world could respond assuming it still […]

Riding the ‘Slide’: Is This What the Next Bear Market Looks Like

financialsense.com / FF WILEY / 09/18/2017

Even as the Fed’s decision makers are beginning to worry less about a recession and morea bout bubbly stock prices, we’re not yet moved by their attempts to curb the market’s enthusiasm. After all, the fed funds rate sits barely above 1%, which not too long ago qualified […]

“Bad Options” Regarding 2% Inflation Targets (And Other Silly Notions)

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / September 14, 2017

The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg both posted ridiculous articles regarding today regarding inflation.

The former was on “bad options” the latter on “inflation expectations”.

Let’s take a look at both articles because both represent widely believed nonsense.

***

In Bad Options for Addressing Too-Low […]

The Schizophrenic Yield Curve: The Post 2008 Recession Curve Slope Unlike Previous Post Recession Curves

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Anthony B Sanders via Snake Hole Lounge / August 24, 2017

The US Treasury yield curve has exhibited relatively smooth decays following recessions in 1992 and 2001. But not from the 2008-2009 recession. It almost looks schizophrenic.

SOURCE

Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?

mises.org / Daniel Lacalle / August 25, 2017

The FT recently ran an article that states that “leading central banks now own a fifth of their governments’ total debt.”

The figures are staggering.

Without any recession or crisis, major central banks are purchasing more than $200 billion a month in government and private debt, […]

More Noise Than Signal

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Joseph Y. Calhoun, Repost Courtesy of Alhambra Investments / August 24, 2017

A number of people have forwarded this Bloomberg article – Wall Street Banks Warn Downturn Is Coming – to me over the last couple of days. That fact alone is probably a good argument to ignore it but I can’t […]

Here’s how the next recession begins

sovereignman.com / Simon Black / August 22, 2017

In 1886 there were only 38 states in the United States.

Electric power was still cutting edge technology that few people had ever seen.

The Statue of Liberty hadn’t even been dedicated yet.

But it was that year that a man named Richard Sears founded a […]

Rogoff Tells Central Banks More Negative Interest Rates Will Be Needed

armstrongeconomics.com / by Martin Armstrong / Aug 19, 2017

Kenneth Rogoff, the Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is stuck in a time warp where he cannot think out of the box even once. He is telling the central banks that the next recession they will have to resort to negative interest rates and they […]

Current AI Recession Forecast: June 2019

financialsense.com / FS STAFF / 08/18/2017

Earlier this year, FS Insider discussed a new machine-learning “forecasting engine” developed by San-Diego-based Intensity Corporation used for economic and revenue forecasting, large-scale investing, supply chain optimization, and a wide range of other areas.

The current forecast their platform is giving for a US recession is June 2019, which […]

With recession looming, central banks better make peace with negative rates

gata.org / By Sid Verma and Cecile Gutscher via Bloomberg News / August 14, 2017

Negative interest rates are back in the spotlight.

Investors and analysts are redoubling their warnings that with global borrowing costs already so low, central banks will need to be prepared to cut interest rates deep into negative territory in the […]

Negative Interest Rates Are Almost Certainly in Our Future

schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD / AUGUST 15, 2017

With interest rates still at extremely low levels, what will central bankers do when the next recession comes along?

Just take those interest rates negative.

Iain Stealey serves as Head of global aggregate strategies at JPMorgan Asset Management in London. He raised the specter of negative rates […]