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Perfect Storm 2.0 – Will The Auto Industry Ever Be The Same Again?

zerohedge.com / by Daniel Ruiz via Blinders Off blog / Jun 25, 2017 1:25 PM

To better understand why the automotive industry is in the middle of a perfect storm, first go back and consider the also perfect set of events that led to a robust recovery and a record setting 2016 sales year.

[…]

Credit-Card Debt Slaves Move to Top of Fed’s Bank Worries

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Jun 23, 2017

Projected losses at the top 34 banks in a “severely adverse scenario.”

The comforting news in the results from the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test is that the largest 34 bank holding companies would all survive a recession.

Based on this glorious accomplishment, the clamoring […]

Greenback Goes Nowhere Quickly, While Yen Remains Bid

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / June 22, 2017

The summer doldrums begin early. The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. Bond yields are mostly one-two basis points lower, and equity markets are mixed but with a downside bias. Oil prices slump more than 2% on Tuesday and again […]

100% Chance of Recession Within 7 Months?

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Brian Maher via The Daily Reckoning / June 20, 2017

We asked this question one week after Trump was elected:

“What does history predict for the Trump presidency?”

The answer we furnished — based on over a century of data — was this:

A 100% chance of recession within his first […]

‘Hawkish’ Dudley Sparks Bond, Stock Selling With Puzzling Comments

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jun 19, 2017

With two comments this morning that seemingly fly in the face of all common-knowledge, Fed’s Dudley offered a hawkish tone that sparked selling pressure in stocks and bonds even as USDJPY spikes.

Dudley proclaimed first that an inverting yield curve is not a problem…

[…]

When Will The Fed Tighten Enough To Cause The Next Recession?

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jun 18, 2017 4:00 PM

In addition to the wildly popular topic of the market’s record low volatility, coupled with speculation what could break the current spell of “endemic complacency” and what its impact would be on asset prices (yesterday we posted a fascinating take by DB’s Aleksandar […]

We Are Getting Very Close To An Inverted Yield Curve – And If That Happens A Recession Is Essentially Guaranteed

theeconomiccollapseblog.com / By Michael Snyder / June 15th, 2017

If something happens seven times in a row, do you think that there is a pretty good chance that it will happen the eighth time too? Immediately prior to the last seven recessions, we have seen an inverted yield curve, and it looks like it […]

The Chinese Trilemma

wallstreetexaminer.com / by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning / June 12, 2017

The trilemma, also known as the “impossible trinity” is a fundamental thesis of international economics. I’ve covered in detail previously, so this is a short overview.

It was developed by economists Robert Mundell and Marcus Fleming in the early 1960s.

In […]

Is the Chain-Restaurant Recession Becoming Structural?

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Jun 12, 2017

A 15-month downturn, longest since 2009, and no end in sight.

There’s simply no respite for chain restaurants. Industry-wide, same-store sales fell again in May. The last time, same-store sales actually rose year-over-year was in February 2016. On that basis, the chain-restaurant recession is now […]

“Historic” Chinese Yield Curve Inversion Flashes Recession

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jun 8, 2017 9:35 PM

A month ago, China 5s10s curve inverted for the first time ever, flashing warning signs of an imminent recession (but technical, liquidity factors were offered as excuses for this shift in the belly of the curve). The curve then double-inverted (with 3s10s inverting) seemingly […]

When I Said The Lowest-Ever Inflation Adjusted Gold Price, I Meant It!

milesfranklin.com / by Andrew Hoffman / Jun 7, 2017

So you understand just how dire – and global – the “Greatest Depression” is becoming, here’s a sampling of the “PiMBEEB,” or Precious-Metal-bullish, everything-else-bearish headlines of the past 24 hours alone. Which cumulatively, tells you all you need to know about how all Central banks […]

“Stressed” Australians Struggle With Record Debts As Housing Market Overheats

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jun 7, 2017

Australians are dialing back their spending on everything from clothes to cars as sky-high housing costs, the result of a housing bubble fueled by Chinese buyers, threaten to finally derail the country’s twin asset bubbles – housing and stocks.

But rising mortgage debt isn’t the […]

South Africa Unexpectedly Plunges Into Recession

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jun 6, 2017 3:25 PM

Despite expectations (among 19 ‘economists’) that growth would be up 1.0% in Q1, South African GDP tumbled 0.7% (the second drop in a row) pushing the nation back into recession after eight years.

The median of 19 economists’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey […]

Greyerz – Whether People Believe It Or Not, A Massive Global Collapse Is About To Unfold

kingworldnews.com / June 05, 2017

As we move through what promises to be a rowdy month of trading in June, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, told King World News that whether people choose to believe it or not, a massive global collapse is […]

Celente – The Next Big War Is About To Erupt

kingworldnews.com / June 04, 2017

On the heels of the Dow breaking back above 21,000, today the top trends forecaster in the world spoke with King World News about the true state of the economy and where the next big war is about to unfold.

People Are Broke Gerald Celente: “Take a trip to […]

Here Are The Seven “Black Swans” SocGen Believes Could Shock Global Markets

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 31, 2017

As part of its periodic Global Economic Outlook, SocGen traditionally includes a discussion of what it views are the biggest “black swans” both to the upside and the downside, and the latest just released edition titled “On a Plateau”, which took a rather grim […]

We Now Know “Who Hit The Brakes” As Loan Creation Crashes To Six Year Low

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 21, 2017 5:00 PM

The wheels are falling off the US bank loan market.

After we first showed in early March the steep drop in bank loan creation for both Commercial and Industrial, auto and total loans – all traditionally leading indicators to economic contraction and recession […]

State of Denial: The Economy No Longer Works As It Did in the Past

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / MONDAY, MAY 15, 2017

There’s no Plan B for a state-corporate form of central-planning capitalism that is no longer functioning. If there is one reality that is denied or obscured by the Status Quo, it is that the economy no longer works as it did in the past. […]

#Carmageddon Now: Ford to Slash 10% of its Workforce

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / May 16, 2017

“According to people briefed on the plan.”

Ford’s shares have gotten hammered as it struggles with plunging car sales, and in April even with weak truck sales, mired as automakers are in the US “car recession.” At $10.94 at the close on Monday, shares […]

No…You Can’t Have Your 90’s Back

zerohedge.com / by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com / May 15, 2017 8:14 AM

As I was writing the newsletter this past weekend, the following email rolled into my inbox:

“The S&P will double. And not just eventually. But over the next 5 years (or sooner). Sounds like a Herculean task on the surface, […]

Job Openings Hit 8 Month High Despite First Two-Month Drop In Hiring Since The Recession

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 9, 2017 10:37 AM

Tracking the disappointing, and downward revised March jobs report, when as a reminder the US added only 79,000 jobs, today’s JOLTS report showed a decidedly more benign labor market in the month of March, with good news on the job openings front, offset by […]

Jobless Claims Crash To Multi-Decade Lows

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 4, 2017 8:53 AM

Continuing Jobless Claims plunged to 1.962mm last week – the lowest since April 2000

(right before the Nasdaq started to collapse and the US fell into recession).

While ISM surveys show employment tumbling (and ADP was weak)…

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GM Auto Inventory Hits 10 Year High: Most Since November 2007, One Month Before The Recession Started

GM inventories now at 9.5-year high. 935,758 units (100-day supply) is most since Nov. 2007, 1 month before the recession officially began.

— Nick Bunkley (@nickbunkley) May 2, 2017

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 3, 2017 3:49 PM

When we summarized yesterday’s disappointing monthly car sales report, which badly […]

Angst in America, Part 6: Middle Class Blues

mauldineconomics.com / BY JOHN MAULDIN / APRIL 30, 2017

“We of the sinking middle class may sink without further struggles into the working class where we belong, and probably when we get there it will not be so dreadful as we feared; for, after all, we have nothing to lose.”

– George Orwell

“A […]

What Is the “Correct” Growth Rate of the Money Supply

mises.org / Frank Shostak / April 20, 2017

Most economists believe that a growing economy requires a growing money stock, on grounds that growth gives rise to a greater demand for money, which must be accommodated.

Failing to do so, it is maintained, will lead to a decline in the prices of goods and […]