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Revolver Maps

Here’s how the next recession begins

sovereignman.com / Simon Black / August 22, 2017

In 1886 there were only 38 states in the United States.

Electric power was still cutting edge technology that few people had ever seen.

The Statue of Liberty hadn’t even been dedicated yet.

But it was that year that a man named Richard Sears founded a […]

Rogoff Tells Central Banks More Negative Interest Rates Will Be Needed

armstrongeconomics.com / by Martin Armstrong / Aug 19, 2017

Kenneth Rogoff, the Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is stuck in a time warp where he cannot think out of the box even once. He is telling the central banks that the next recession they will have to resort to negative interest rates and they […]

Current AI Recession Forecast: June 2019

financialsense.com / FS STAFF / 08/18/2017

Earlier this year, FS Insider discussed a new machine-learning “forecasting engine” developed by San-Diego-based Intensity Corporation used for economic and revenue forecasting, large-scale investing, supply chain optimization, and a wide range of other areas.

The current forecast their platform is giving for a US recession is June 2019, which […]

With recession looming, central banks better make peace with negative rates

gata.org / By Sid Verma and Cecile Gutscher via Bloomberg News / August 14, 2017

Negative interest rates are back in the spotlight.

Investors and analysts are redoubling their warnings that with global borrowing costs already so low, central banks will need to be prepared to cut interest rates deep into negative territory in the […]

Negative Interest Rates Are Almost Certainly in Our Future

schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD / AUGUST 15, 2017

With interest rates still at extremely low levels, what will central bankers do when the next recession comes along?

Just take those interest rates negative.

Iain Stealey serves as Head of global aggregate strategies at JPMorgan Asset Management in London. He raised the specter of negative rates […]

Worst Restaurant Recession since 2009 Digs Inflation

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Aug 14, 2017

Households at lower 80% of income scale are maxed out.

“July proved to be a tough month for chain restaurants,” the report said.

Foot traffic at chain restaurants fell 4.7% in July year-over-year. Same-store sales fell 2.8%, the 17th month in a row of year-over-year […]

Are We Already in Recession?

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / SUNDAY, AUGUST 13, 2017

If we stop counting zombies, we’re already in recession.

How shocked would you be if it was announced that the U.S. had just entered a recession, that is, a period in which gross domestic product (GDP) declines (when adjusted for inflation) for two or […]

As Stocks Decline, Consumer Comfort Hits a 16-Year High

financialsense.com / FS STAFF / 08/10/2017

According to the latest data, Americans are feeling very good. In fact, the best they’ve felt in 16 years!

This aligns with the message coming from a variety of leading economic indicators and, as we showed last month, the LEIs are currently not warning of an imminent market […]

What Happens If We Get a Recession?

mauldineconomics.com / BY JARED DILLIAN / AUGUST 10, 2017

If you are in the business of forecasting the stock market, you have to think about a concept known as spot-dependency.

You might have heard of skew, where out-of-the-money put options are more expensive than out-of-the-money call options.

That’s (partly) a function of spot-dependent volatility—if […]

U.S. Rent Growth Flatlines As Massive Flood Of New Apartment Supply Finally Takes Its Toll

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Aug 8, 2017

After a slow and steady march higher in the wake of the ‘great recession’ nearly a decade ago, a note today from Rent Cafe shows that average rents in the United States may have finally stalled in July at $1,350 per month after posting a […]

The Everything Bubble And Stagflation Are About To Create Skyrocketing Gold & Silver Prices

kingworldnews.com / August 08, 2017

On the heels of the recent warning that a period of major stagflation is going to take place in the United States, the “everything bubble” and stagflation are about to create skyrocketing gold and silver prices.

“A speculator is a man who observes the future, and acts before it occurs.” […]

MAULDIN: One Of These 3 Black Swans Will Likely Trigger A Global Recession By End Of 2018

mauldineconomics.com / BY JOHN MAULDIN / JULY 28, 2017

Exactly 10 years ago, we were months way from a world-shaking financial crisis.

By late 2006, we had an inverted yield curve steep to be a high-probability indicator of recession. I estimated at that time that the losses would be $400 billion at a minimum. […]

Does the Mainstream Have the Definition of Recession All Wrong?

schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD / JULY 24, 2014

Pundits and government officials keep telling us the economy is strong. Everything is great. After all, GDP is growing.

But a lot of people recognize things aren’t all that great. Some prominent economic analysts have said a major crash is looming. Nobel Prize winning economist Robert […]

Leading Indicators Not Suggesting Imminent Market Peak, Recession

financialsense.com / FS STAFF / 07/24/2017

Several skeptics responded to our piece last week looking at the yield curve as a leading indicator (see Yield Curve Not Suggesting Imminent Market Peak, Recession) by saying that the yield curve is no longer reliable because of the Fed’s distortions on the market.

This was essentially the same […]

Secular Disinflationary Trend Hits New Highs: Deflation on Deck? What’s That Mean for Gold?

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / July 20, 2017

Wage and CPI inflation, even core inflation, has surprised to the downside four consecutive months. If a recession hits, and that is just a matter of time, outright price deflation is likely.

Via email, Albert Edwards of Societe Generale discusses the subject in Global Strategy […]

Yield Curve Not Suggesting Imminent Market Peak, Recession

.financialsense.com / FS STAFF / 07/19/2017

One of the most frequently cited predictors of a recession is when short-term interest rates rise above long-term interest rates. This is referred to as an “inversion of the yield curve” and typically happens when bond investors have a negative outlook on the economy. If you’re not familiar with […]

Here’s the True Definition of a Recession — It’s Not About GDP

mises.org / Frank Shostak / July 20, 2017

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the institution that dates the peaks and troughs of the business cycles,

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, […]

The Plural of Anecdotes Is Beige

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Jeffrey P. Snider via Alhambra Investments / July 19, 2017

As noted before, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book collection of local bank district anecdotes are fascinating for all the wrong reasons. What is revealed is not the state of the economy, but rather the state of how policymakers perceive or often […]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Attention Shoppers

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Joseph Y. Calhoun via Alhambra Investments / July 16, 2017

The majority of the economic reports over the last two weeks have been disappointing, less than the consensus expectations. The minor rebound in activity we’ve been tracking since last summer appears to have stalled. Retail sales continue to disappoint and inventory/sales ratios […]

KKR Predicts U.S. Recession By 2019 And An Inevitable Cycle Of Millennial Deleveraging

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jul 13, 2017

KKR has just published their 2017 mid-year economic outlook and it includes some rather dire predictions for the U.S. economy. Among other things, KKR predicts a U.S. recession by 2019 and a massive cycle of millennial deleveraging after a huge expansion of consumer credit in […]

“… A Recession Has Always Followed”: Is This The Real Reason The Fed Is Suddenly Panicking

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jul 10, 2017 2:00 PM

“Why is the Fed so desperate to raise rates and tighten financial conditions? Why has the Fed shifted from a dovish to a hawkish bias?”

That is the question on every trader’s, analyst’s and economist’s mind in the past month. Is it because […]

Goldman Sachs On What Happens Next – Recession, War, Or Goldilocks

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jul 3, 2017 4:15 PM

After several months of low volatility across assets since mid-2016, particularly in equities, markets were more volatile last week owing to fears of central bank tightening. Volatility picked up first in FX and rates, and then spilled over to equities. However, as Goldman […]

Perfect Storm 2.0 – Will The Auto Industry Ever Be The Same Again?

zerohedge.com / by Daniel Ruiz via Blinders Off blog / Jun 25, 2017 1:25 PM

To better understand why the automotive industry is in the middle of a perfect storm, first go back and consider the also perfect set of events that led to a robust recovery and a record setting 2016 sales year.

[…]

Credit-Card Debt Slaves Move to Top of Fed’s Bank Worries

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Jun 23, 2017

Projected losses at the top 34 banks in a “severely adverse scenario.”

The comforting news in the results from the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test is that the largest 34 bank holding companies would all survive a recession.

Based on this glorious accomplishment, the clamoring […]

Greenback Goes Nowhere Quickly, While Yen Remains Bid

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / June 22, 2017

The summer doldrums begin early. The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. Bond yields are mostly one-two basis points lower, and equity markets are mixed but with a downside bias. Oil prices slump more than 2% on Tuesday and again […]