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Revolver Maps

Health-Care Industry Debt Turns into “Systemic Recession Risk”

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Mar 27, 2017

Debt binge hits its limit, with big impact on overall economy.

Sector booms and busts have historically been driven by speculation and over-borrowing, often triggering regional or even national recessions. Textbook examples include the 2014 Energy and 2008 Financial sector collapse. In both of these […]

How to Interpret the Shape of the Yield Curve

mises.org / Frank Shostak / March 28, 2017

Historically most recessions in the US are preceded by significant declines in the differential or interest rate spread between the 10-year T-bond and the 3-month Treasury security. Typically, this narrowing in the spread occurs many months before the onset of the recession.

Conversely, the widening in […]

It’s “Judgment Time”: Goldman Sees Three Options For Traders

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 27, 2017

From Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello

Judgment Time … Options Include:

get bearish S&P for a trade. don’t fight the primary trend — this is a melt-up, and there are good (macro) reasons behind it. simplify the portfolio; wait for better location to re-load length.

A case […]

Pension Problem Too Big To Ignore?

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 26, 2017

Bloomberg writer Danielle DiMartino Booth says the Pension Crisis Too Big for Markets to Ignore.

But I have a question: If the problem is too big to be ignored, why is nearly everyone complacent?

Only a handful of sites including MishTalk, ZeroHedge, and Jack […]

ITR Economics: 2019 Recession, 2030 Depression

financialsense.com / FS STAFF / 03/22/2017

For those that track the economy and are deeply interested in where the US is headed, Dr. Alan Beaulieu, President of ITR Economics, has good news and bad news.

The good news is that the US is unlikely to see another recession until around 2019. He told listeners that […]

For Keynesians and Austrians, “Uncertainty” Means Two Different Things

mises.org / G. P. Manish * Felicia Cowley / March 23, 2017

Keynesian economics has witnessed a remarkable resurgence since the crisis of 2008. The inability of mainstream economics to predict or explain the crisis led many economists to become skeptical of its core macroeconomic tenets. Several have turned the clock back to […]

Art Bubble Pops As Sales Crash To Lowest Level Since ‘Great Recession’

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 23, 2017

Just as Yellen & Co. has finally decided that ‘Everything is Awesome’ and started raising interest rates (the timing of which we’re almost certain was in no way influenced by the conclusion of the recent election cycle), signs continue to mount that global economies are […]

CEO Pay Soars In 2016 As Employee Wages Continue To Stagnate

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 20, 2017 11:52 AM

CEO pay increases took a brief pause in 2015 dropping to a paltry median of just $10.8 million with most getting a pay cut or a raise of less than 1.5%. But, as the Wall Street Journal points out this morning, the CEO’s […]

The Hostile Takeover of Trump, the Economic Crisis, and the Return of HRC

theorganicprepper.ca / Daisy Luther / March 19, 2017

Survival Saturday Sunday (busy day yesterday, sorry!) is a round-up of the week’s news and resources for folks who are interested in being prepared.

This Week in the News

Sometimes I’d swear House of Cards is actually a documentary. Every week, the soap opera in Washington, DC […]

Surge in Global Economic Surprises, Business Confidence Continues

financialsense.com / KURT KALLAUS / 03/17/2017

From worst to first in one year! The economic surprise index was already trending higher in the US and around the globe last Fall and Trump’s timing was impeccable as current and expected business activity surged since his election. The Citi Economic Surprise Index falls when real activity is […]

Building Permits Plunge Most In 11 Months Amid Multi-Family Slump

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 16, 2017

Following January’s ‘Trump-bump’, building permits in February plunged 6.2% MoM, the biggest drop since March 2016 (amid global recession fears), driven by a tumble in multi-family units. While housing starts rose 3% MoM, the annual growth slipped back to 6.2%, again fading Trump exuberance, despite […]

Canada Flagged for Recession by BIS

mises.ca / CALEB MCMILLAN / MARCH 13, 2017

As if Canadians needed more proof that the country’s real estate is in a bubble, and that this misallocation has spread to other sectors of the economy, the Bank of International Settlements released its latest quarterly confirming what any critical observer can see: binging on […]

How The Federal Reserve Is Setting Up Trump For A Recession, A Housing Crisis And A Stock Market Crash

theeconomiccollapseblog.com / By Michael Snyder / March 13th, 2017

Most Americans do not understand this, but the truth is that the Federal Reserve has far more power over the U.S. economy than anyone else does, and that includes Donald Trump. Politicians tend to get the credit or the blame for how the economy is […]

Stagnant Wage Growth Continues (Still Worst Wage Recovery After A Recession Since 1965)

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Anthony B. Sanders via Confounded Interest / March 10, 2017

The January jobs report is out and it showed little change since the December report. That is, relatively low unemployment and abysmal wage growth.

Now, average hourly earnings YoY did increase from 2.5% to 2.8%. But this is the first “recovery” […]

Gundlach Says Fed Will Hike “Until Something Breaks”, Dumps Bank Shares

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 8, 2017

Last week, in an abrupt shift to his bullish posture, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett laid out how he envisioned the transition from the current “Icarus” rally to what he dubbed the market’s “Great Fall” – or “Humpty Dumpty” trade – which he expected […]

This Region Of The World Is Being Hit By The Worst Economic Collapse It Has Ever Experienced

theeconomiccollapseblog.com / By Michael Snyder / March 7th, 2017

The ninth largest economy in the entire world is currently experiencing “its longest and deepest recession in recorded history”, and in a country right next door people are being encouraged to label their trash so that the thousands upon thousands of desperately hungry people that […]

Tumult on the Horizon: I’m Out For Now

ibankcoin.com / Dr. Fly / Mar 6, 2017

 

Former treasury official and current ‘scholar’ at Brookings Institute, Aaron Klein, was on CNBC this morning telling America to get ready for rate hikes ‘all year long.’

He likened the Fed’s pace as a race towards 1.5%. This is unacceptable.

“The Fed is racing to […]

A Third Of All U.S. Shopping Malls Are Projected To Close As ‘Space Available’ Signs Go Up All Over America

theeconomiccollapseblog.com / By Michael Snyder on March 6th, 2017

If you didn’t know better, you might be tempted to think that “Space Available” was the hottest new retail chain in the entire country. As you will see below, it is being projected that about a third of all shopping malls in the United States […]

Stanley Fischer on Monetary “Rules” and the FOMC

 

mises.org / Ryan McMaken / March 4, 2017

In recent years, the Fed has felt the need to step up efforts to defend its governing structure and its agenda. Thanks to the the success of the anti-Fed rhetoric of the Ron Paul campaigns of 2008 and 2012, combined with the financial crisis of 2008, […]

The Fed Is Preparing $1 Trillion In QE For The Next Recession: Deutsche

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 3, 2017 10:49 AM

While in recent weeks there has been a material increase in Fed balance sheet normalization chatter, according to a new report from Deutsche Bank analysts, it may all be for nothing for one simple reason: should the US encounter a recession in the next […]

Tax Reform: The Good, the Bad, and the Really Ugly—Part Four

mauldineconomics.com / BY JOHN MAULDIN / MARCH 1, 2017

“The values to which people cling most stubbornly under inappropriate conditions are those values that were previously the source of their greatest triumphs over adversity.”

– Jared Diamond, Collapse, 2005

Tax reform means, “Don’t tax you, don’t tax me. Tax that fellow behind the tree.”

– […]

Recession Concerns Grow After Gasoline Demand Slides Most In 16 Years

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Feb 23, 2017 3:03 PM

Two weeks ago, we reported that when Goldman observed the latest gasoline demand data, it said that either something must be wrong with the data, or the US is in a recession: as the firm’s commodity analyst Damien Courvalin put it, such a […]

Is it Autumn 2007 All Over Again?

gainspainscapital.com / Graham Summers / February 22, 2017

While the financial world continues to delight in Trump Mania, the US economy has rolled over into recession.

I realize this sounds completely insane. After all, stocks are at new all time highs and a full 61% of Americans view the economy as “strong.”

Unfortunately, this […]

Is the US Restaurant Recession Becoming Structural?

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Feb 22, 2017

National restaurant data and anecdotal evidence has been piling up. “T Vogel,” a commenter on WOLF STREET, put it this way:

My wife and I make almost 30k more than the median family income in my town (northern CA) with no kids. Our rent just […]

Global Trade Disaster Nearly Certain

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / February 21, 2017

Growth in global trade has slowed for five consecutive years.

Trade growth for 2016 was under 2%. That’s something that has happened only three times since 2000. On both prior occasions, the US was in recession.

What’s ahead?

Please consider a couple of […]