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Wheezing Consumers & Slowing Economy, No Problem: UK Inflation Jumps Most in 5+ Years. Rate Hike Due in November

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wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Oct 17, 2017

The Fed leads, other central banks follow.

The UK is not the only one. But it’s furthest ahead. In the US, consumer prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose 2.2% in September compared to a year ago. In […]

Looking For A Last Minute ‘Cheap’ Trade On A CPI Miss?

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zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 13, 2017 8:06 AM

Demand has exploded for a cheap options bet which stands to benefit should the market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December tumble.

As Bloomberg reports, the eurodollar call option involved expires Friday, so the […]

Gold Pops, Dollar Drops As Rate-Hike-Odds Slide After Fed Minutes

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zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 11, 2017 2:25 PM

Fed rate-hike odds for December are lower after the Minutes (down from around 80% to 73%) as Fed officials’ concerns about non-transitory low inflation sparked a dovish drop in the dollar and pop in precious metals…

READ […]

Everybody Wants Duration Even as Fed Normalization Draws Near (75% Prob of Dec Rate Hike)

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Anthony B Sanders via Snake Hole Lounge / October 5, 2017

Recently, US Treasury bonds are like peanuts … investors can’t just eat one.

Investors can’t get enough of the longest maturity U.S. bonds even with the Federal Reserve set to embark on its next step toward normalizing interest rates.

While […]

Personal Income, Spending, PCE Inflation “Unexpectedly Weak”: Real Income and Spending Decline

Hooray! Assuming you believe inflation stats, your y-o-y income rose 1.4% in May, 1.3% in June, 1.2% in July and Aughttps://t.co/CTJs0ouqEY

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) September 29, 2017

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock /September 29, 2017

The BEA reports “Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in August and Real PCE […]

Loonie Loses All ‘Surprise Rate Hike’ Gains As Canada’s Poloz Gets Cold Feet

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Sep 27, 2017 12:02 PM

The Canadian Dollar is tumbling – erasing all the gains following September’s surprise rate-hike – as in his first speech since the, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz warns there is no “predetermined path for interest rates” and said the central bank will […]

Asian Metals Market Update: September-21-2017

news.goldseek.com / By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants / 21 September 2017

A December interest rate hike and more hikes next year is more or less a certainty. This is the first time this year that the Federal Reserve has been very clear on the US economy and the US interest rate cycle. Any reduction […]

Balance Sheet Reduction Starts October: Like “Watching Paint Dry”

Despite the Dot Plot, I am confident we are much closer to the end of hikes than the start of them. https://t.co/8HN1V1X3o0 pic.twitter.com/Fz7yK5DYvq

— Mike Mish Shedlock (@MishGEA) September 20, 2017

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / September 20, 2017

As expected the Fed will begin balance sheet reduction in […]

Bitcoin Buying And Bullion Swaps-The Wisdom Of Experience

milesfranklin.com / by Andrew Hoffman / Aug 15, 2017

Alright, let’s start by getting the B.S. out of the way – of how stocks are rising, and bullion falling, due to the “diminished Korean threat.” To start with, amidst supposed investor “terror” of nuclear Armageddon, the VIX, even at its most “terrifying” point, barely rose […]

Dudley Warns “Market’s Rate Hike Expectations Are Unreasonable” Sending Yields, Dec. Odds Higher

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Aug 14, 2017 3:16 PM

One day after the 5th consecutive miss in US CPI, NY Fed President William Dudley threw currency and eurodollar traders for another loop when he said on Monday that it was not “unreasonable” to think that the central bank would begin trimming its […]

US Consumers Reeling: Core Retail Sales Post Weakest Growth In Over Three Years

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jul 14, 2017 8:49 AM

This is not the data the Fed was looking for: after the 4th consecutive miss in CPI data, moments ago the Census Bureau also reported June retail sales which was unexpectedly poor, missing across the board once again, and judging by the surge […]

Breslow Slams Fed Confusion: “FOMC Charts Will Soon Need Virtual Reality Headsets”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jul 12, 2017 9:12 AM

Hawkish? Dovish? Balance sheet reductionist? Rate-hike limited? Worried about inflation or excited by the economic outlook? Or just plain old confused?

What and why did Yellen just say what she did, unleashing the latest market reaction to her supposedly “dovish” congressional testimony, and […]

Mortgage Applications Plunge As Rate-Hike Craters Refis

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jul 12, 2017 8:21 AM

Who could have seen this coming? US mortage applications tumbled 7.4% in the prior week – the biggest drop since 2016 – as mortgage rates rose to two-month highs following the Fed’s rate-hike and hawkish jawboning.

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This Is Not Going To End Well

kingworldnews.com / July 11, 2017

One thing is certain, this is not going to end well.

July 12 (King World News) – Here is what Peter Boockvar wrote ahead of the next round of monetary madness: If comments from Lael Brainard, a Fed Governor, a voting member and thus influential person on the FOMC are […]

Why the Silver Price Is Set to Rebound 33% from Recent Lows

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Peter Krauth via Money Morning / June 26, 2017

As much as last week’s silver price story was all about the Federal Reserve, it seems the rate hike’s boost to the U.S. dollar may be starting to fade. The greenback fell for three straight sessions last week, dropping from 97.75 on […]

Why Is the Fed So Desperate to Raise Rates? Jim Rickards Explains (Video)

schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD / JUNE 23, 2017

The June Federal Reserve rate hike wasn’t a surprise. Most analysts expected Yellen and company to boost rates by 0.25 points. The only thing that was a little surprising was the hawkish tone the central bankers took at the most recent Federal Open Market Committee […]

SocGen: The Fed Is Raising Rates Too Slowly To Contain Asset Bubbles

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jun 20, 2017 8:03 AM

Yesterday, when looking at the divergence between the slowing US economy and the Fed’s insistence on hiking rates, Bank of America’s David Woo asked if there is a different motive behind the Fed’s tightening intentions, namely is the Fed trying to pop the […]

Is This The Greatest Opportunity Of 2017 For Gold, Silver, And The Mining Shares?

kingworldnews.com / June 15, 2017

With the markets attempting to stabilize after the expected Fed rate hike, many are wondering what is next for gold, silver, and the mining shares?

June 15 (King World News) – With the price of gold hovering around $1,250 and silver near $17, many are wondering what is next? Well, […]

14/6/17: The Fed: Bravely Going Somewhere Amidst Rising Uncertainty

Source: @Schuldensuehner

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Constantin Gurdgiev / June 14, 2017

Predictably (in line with the median investors’ outlook) the Fed raised its base rate and provided more guidance on their plans to deleverage the Fed’s balance sheet (more on the latter in a subsequent post). The moves came against a revision of short term […]

The Fed’s Last “Rate Hike”

milesfranklin.com / by Andrew Hoffman / Jun 13, 2017

Today, let’s start with one of my “favorite” topics, given my strong belief that OPEC’s highly visible death throes presage the epic level of chaos the gold Cartel will eventually experience when it spectacularly fails – per what I wrote in last month’s “OPEC, like […]

Despite Near Certainty Of June Rate-Hike, Millions Of Eurodollar ‘Bets’ Are Set To Expire Worthless

zerohedge.com / Via Long Convexity blog / Jun 6, 2017 3:45 PM

As a trader one of the most frustrating things is to have the correct view on the direction of the market, while not being able to monetize that view because you have the wrong structure on.

Due to the lack of a […]

One Sided Trade

news.goldseek.com / By Warren Bevan / 29 May 2017

A quiet week for stocks with the exception of Wednesday and Thursday after the Fed says a rate hike should come sooner than later, which increased the likelihood of a June rate hike.

Markets, stocks and metals enjoyed this outlook and took off higher, so […]

Goldman Turns Less Confident On June, September Rate Hikes

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 16, 2017 9:07 AM

Following disappointing CPI prints for two months in a row, even such stalwart believers in the Fed’s tightening cycle as Goldman Sachs (recall Hatzius warned recently that the Fed may need to “shock” markets to tighten monetary conditions in light of the S&P relentless […]

Betting Against A June Rate Hike? Something’s Going On

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 11, 2017 11:53 AM

We noted yesterday that the recent trend of increased volumes into Eurodollar future out-months was ‘odd’…

But the sudden surge in interest in Eurodollar calls (vs puts) suggests more than just a few prop bets are being placed on the fact that The […]

Bonds, Bullion Slip After Fed Sends June Rate Hike Odds Spiking To 94%

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 3, 2017 2:20 PM

From just below 70% before to 94% now, June is on like Donkey Kong –

No matter how shitty economic data is…

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