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Mauled by Peso Crash & Inflation, Mexico to Cut its Dependence on US Food Producers

wolfstreet.com / By Don Quijones, Spain & Mexico / Jan 15, 2017

It’s not all NAFTA’s fault, however.

The price of tortilla, a staple in Mexico that is consumed in myriad forms, flavors and colors, is on the rise. The country’s federal consumer association Profeco has already warned of price rises across the country, with […]

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

marctomarket.com / Dr.Win Thin / Jan 15, 2017

EM FX ended the week mixed. Markets continue to grapple with the outlook for the so-called Trump Trade, which we believe is intact. MXN and TRY recovered from the relentless selling of recent days, but both remain vulnerable. Indeed, if the jump in US yields on Friday […]

Higher Interest Rates Good for Stocks

financialsense.com / KURT KALLAUS / 01/13/2017

Until 1981 interest rates had risen for 4 decades and since then yields are in their 4th decade of decline and ironically rates are back near 2% where they began in the 1940’s. Rising interest rates pump fear through the veins of stock market forecasters and wealth managers, […]

Why Everyone Is Complacent: “2016 Saw The Fewest S&P 500 Drawdowns Ever”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jan 15, 2017

One week ago we were surprised to read that, in Tom Lee’s 2017 market outlook, Wall Street’s formerly most vocal cheerleader and its most prominent permabull had unexpectedly turned into one of the most skeptical bears. As a reminder, at a time when virtually every […]

Five Events that Will Drive the Capital Markets in the Week Ahead

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / January 15, 2017

Like many, we recognize that political factors may overshadow macroeconomic drivers in shaping the investment climate in the period ahead. We suspect this will be very much the case in the coming days It is not that the economic data doesn’t matter, but for many […]

Japan: An Inflection Point

financialsense.com / DAVID KOTOK / 01/11/2017

Picture this story on the front page of the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal:

japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/06/national/social-issues/japan-academic-societies-propose-defining-elderly-aged-75-older.

Hat Tip to Jeff Uscher of Japan Insider for the catch. Jeff notes that “As of September 2016, 27% of the Japanese population was aged 65 or older but ‘only’ 13% […]

Buy C-R-A-P

financialsense.com / JEFFREY D SAUT / 01/10/2017

We live in a modern world of acronyms and buzzwords, and the financial industry is certainly no exception. In fact, it may be one of the worst culprits, what with FANG, ZIRP, TINA, BREXIT, QUITALY, BRIC, etc. all entering the lexicon over the last few years. Yet, […]

Money Creation and the Boom-Bust Cycle

acting-man.com / Frank Shostak / January 11, 2017

A Difference of Opinions

In his various writings, Murray Rothbard argued that in a free market economy that operates on a gold standard, the creation of credit that is not fully backed up by gold (fractional-reserve banking) sets in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. In […]

How the Yellen – Trump Relationship Could Play Out

wallstreetexaminer.com / by James Rickards / January 10, 2017

A review of the Fed’s toolkit consisting of interest rate hikes to fight inflation, and a litany of tools to fight deflation (helicopter money, financial repression, negative real rates, rate cuts, negative nominal rates, QE, forward guidance, currency wars, and gold), shows that the Fed […]

Get Ready for China’s Hot New Export Product: Inflation

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Jan 10, 2017

Coming soon to a store near you.

China’s producer prices – which measure what is sometimes called “inflation at the factory” – soared 5.5% in December, from a year ago. This was far hotter than economists had expected, though they’d expected a pretty good […]

Germany’s Misreading of Economic History is the Doom of the EU

armstrongeconomics.com / by Martin Armstrong / Jan 10, 2017

Angela Merkel and her party remain clueless about the economic history of Germany which has been made apparent through her insistence upon austerity that tearing the EU apart at the seams. This is like blaming Trump for Hillary’s loss. Merkel’s belief that the quantity of […]

Why Morgan Stanley Threw Up All Over Those “Great” Rising Earnings

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jan 9, 2017 2:19 PM

Following last Friday’s disappointing payrolls report, the punditry was understandably focused on the silver lining: the 0.4% monthly jump in average hourly earnings, which translated into a 2.9% annual increase in hourly earnings – the hottest since the financial crisis. The strong increase […]

Here’s a unique sign of inflation

sovereignman.com / Simon Black / January 9, 2017

I remember the first time I ever saw a $100 bill.

It was back in the early 80s, I must have only been 5 or 6 years old.

My parents took my sister and I to a fancy restaurant, and I distinctly remember a man dressed […]

Inflation: Up and to the Right

financialsense.com / PATRICK O’HARE via Briefing.com / 01/09/2017

Inflation: Up and to the right… that’s the description you want to hear about a chart of the stock you own. Why? Because it suggests the stock price is trending higher. That’s a good thing and it will undoubtedly make you feel happy, but what if […]

Gold Shrugs Off Hawkish December Fed Minutes

sunshineprofits.com / ARKADIUSZ SIEROŃ / JANUARY 6, 2017

On Wednesday, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting were released. What do they say about the Fed’s stance and what do they mean for the gold market?

How can we summarize the recent minutes?

The FOMC members observed that the labor market had continued to […]

Five Key Factors for Investors to Focus on in 2017

financialsense.com / Greg Blotnick CFA / 01/06/2017

1. Will we finally get inflation?

For eight years now global central banks have been working to create inflation via quantitative easing – with little success in the US and outright deflation in Europe and Japan. Trump’s election has rekindled “animal spirits” amongst market participants due to multiple […]

Productivity Growth Ahead

financialsense.com / KURT KALLAUS / 01/05/2017

The past 8 years have witnessed one of the worst trends in labor productivity of the past century. Human productivity inexorably rises over time as we learn from our losses and invest with innovative management and capital investments to increase labor efficiency and profits. Productivity naturally falls as […]

U.S. LIBOR breaks above 1 percent for first time since 2009

gata.org / By Richard Leong and Dan Burns via Reuters / January 4, 2017

The rate banks charge each other to borrow dollars for three months rose above 1 percent today for the first time since May 2009 as global interest rates extend their climb on expectations of accelerating growth and inflation.

The London interbank […]

If 2016 Wasn’t the Epocalypse, What the Heck Was it?

news.goldseek.com / By David Haggith / Wednesday, 4 January 2017

So, 2016 wasn’t the predicted Epocalypse, but it sure was weird! Globally, it was a year of continued economic malaise and increasing financial risks. Most notably, though, it was a year of political upheaval that pitted voters in the UK, Italy and the US in […]

Risk On: 2017 Stock Rally Continues As Global Inflation Accelerates

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Jan 4, 2017

Following another day of upbeat economic data, with growing signs that inflation on both sides of the Atlantic is accelerating, investors rediscovered their faith in the Trumpflation rally, pushing global stocks and US equity futures higher, fuelling a second day of 2017 equity gains ahead […]

Why Government Solutions Usually End in Inflation

mises.org / Ludwig von Mises / January 4, 2016

An essential element of the “unorthodox” doctrines, advanced both by all socialists and by all interventionists, is that the recurrence of depressions is a phenomenon inherent in the very operation, of the market economy. But while the socialists contend that only the substitution of socialism […]

Glut in Luxury Apartments: Boom Set to Fizzle in 2017

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / January 3, 2017

Real estate is has been one of the economic bright spots in the US for several years.

But rising interest rates and a glut of luxury apartments portends a slowdown in 2017.

The Wall Street Journal reports Luxury Apartment Boom Looks Set to Fizzle in […]

Money Creation and the Boom-Bust Cycle

mises.org / Frank Shostak / January 3, 2016

In his various writings, Murray Rothbard argued that in a free market economy that operates on a gold standard the creation of credit that is not fully backed up by gold (fractional-reserve banking) sets in motion the menace of the boom-bust cycle. In his The Case for […]

Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

marctomarket.com / Dr. Win Thin / January 2, 2017

EM FX was a mixed bag over the past week. Dollar softness vs. the majors allowed some in EM to gain traction, with ZAR and PEN the biggest gainers since Christmas. On the other hand, ARS TRY, and INR were the biggest losers. With markets coming […]

Relationship Between The Dollar And Inflation Expectations Has Completely Reversed Since Summer

zerohedge.com / by Eric Bush via Gavekal Capital blog / Dec 29, 2016 12:21 PM

At least since 2003 (which is when our data on TIPS begins), the dollar and breakeven inflation expectations have had a negative relationship. Said differently, when the dollar strengthens (as it has done recently) inflation expectations tend to fall and […]