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Does the World End in Fire or Ice? Thoughts on Japan and the Inflation/Deflation Debate

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / MONDAY, MAY 22, 2017

Japan has managed to offset decades of deflationary dynamics, but at a cost that is hidden beneath the surface of apparent stability. Do we implode in a deflationary death spiral (ice) or in an inflationary death spiral (fire)? Debating the question has been a […]

JPM Cuts 10Y Yield Forecasts “Significantly Lower” Due To Weaker Inflation Outlook

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 22, 2017 11:39 AM

Just one day after Goldman reluctantly cut its 2017 year end forecast on the 10Y yield last Friday from 3.00% to 2.75%, “reflecting some added uncertainty on the US macro outlook” while conceded that “bond bears”, i.e., those clients who have listened to […]

This Is How an Asset Bubble Gets Unwound these Days

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / May 17, 2017

What the slow crash of classic car prices says about the future of other asset classes.

The global asset class of collector cars – these beautiful machines are perhaps one of the most enjoyable asset classes to play in – is quietly but persistently and […]

US Government Officials Admit GDP, Inflation Measurements Are Incorrect

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 16, 2017

First we had China’s “overcooked” GDP data, then came Australia’s “technical issues with jobs data,” and now, with Jack Welch having questioned America’s jobs data in 2012, Bloomberg reports that top officials from two US government economic-statistics agencies said their measurement tools for growth and […]

Inflation/deflation and the desire to avoid short-term pain

news.goldseek.com / By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor / 16 May 2017

The desire to avoid short-term pain is a powerful motivator. Even in cases where it is known that the steps taken to avoid pain in the short-term will lead to greater pain in the distant future, people will often choose the path […]

“Peak China”: Chinese Data Misses Across The Board As Housing Bubble Returns

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 14, 2017

Following months of warnings that China’s economy is slowing down as a result of not only a collapse in China’s credit impulse but also tighter monetary conditions, as well as rolling over loan growth which has pressured both CPI and PPI – i.e., the global […]

Is Bacon Feeding the War Machine?

mises.ca / Reprinted from FEE.org / MAY 12, 2017

The Wall Street Journal offered a cute news scoop that ice cream is more important than bacon when tracking what has come to be known as inflation. Sarah Chaney was stalking the U.S. Department of Labor Blog and stumbled on the post “Ice Cream vs. Bacon.”

[…]

US Macro Data Crashes To 1 Year Lows

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 12, 2017 11:34 AM

“Probably nothing…”

This morning’s disappointing inflation and retail sales data (hard data) more than offset any gains in the soft data (modest rise in UMich confidence), crashing Citi’s US Macro Surprise Index to its weakest (and most negative) level since May 2016…

What […]

CPI Hits Consensus, Disappoints Inflation-Loving Parrots

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 12, 2017

The BLS reports the CPI for All Items rose 0.2% in April as shelter, energy, and food indexes all increase.

The 0.2% increase was in line with the Econoday Consensus estimate, but the Econoday parrot was not happy.

Prices did not go up enough to […]

UMich Confidence Ticks Up As Inflation Expectations Slump To Record Lows

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 12, 2017 10:09 AM

Preliminary May data from University of Michigan shows a small uptick in overall consumer sentiment (from 97.0 to 97.7), back near cycle highs with ‘expectations’ rising modestly. Buying plans, however, were mixed: household durables rose to a decade peak, while vehicle buying conditions slipped […]

A Look at the Silver/Gold Ratio, Inflation/Deflation and the Yield Curve

silverseek.com / Gary Tanashian / May 12th, 2017

An email from a reader (of the eLetter, I think) calling me out on trying to make too many correlations in a dysfunctional market (I think that was his bottom line point, and he’s got a good point) got me thinking about the Silver/Gold ratio and some […]

Markets All Too Quiet Ahead Of Inflation, Retail Sales Data

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 12, 2017

Asian stocks and S&P futures are both feeling the weather this morning, while European stocks are little changed as traders have decided to hold back until today’s key US CPI and retail sales data is released in under two hours.

Commodities have posted another […]

The Fed Gets another Reason to Raise Rates and Unravel QE

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / May 11, 2017

Inflation pressures further up the pipeline rise the most in 5 years.

The Producer Price Index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level for goods and services, and thus up the pipeline from the Consumer Price Index, jumped 2.5% in April from a year […]

Bill Blain: “Something Is Happening In Europe And We Don’t Know What It Is…”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 11, 2017 11:01 AM

We start with the overnight observations by Mint’s Bill Blain who points out something contradictory: on one hand Europe is said to be “fixed” with inflation expectations rising and the ECB preparing to take its foot off the gas pedal. On the other hand, […]

Rising Oil Prices Don’t Cause Inflation

acting-man.com / Frank Shostak / May 11, 2017

Correlation vs. Causation

A very good visual correlation between the yearly percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) and the yearly percentage change in the price of oil seems to provide support to the popular thinking that future changes in price inflation in the US […]

Devonshire: True Inflation Is Three Times Higher Than Officially Reported

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 9, 2017 5:13 PM

A fascinating, recent report by the Devonshire Research Group, whose recent work on Tesla was featured here one year ago, has moved beyond the micro and tackled on of the most controversial macroeconomic topic possible: what is the true rate of inflation. What […]

The insidious effects of monetary inflation

news.goldseek.com / By: Steve Saville, The Speculative Investor / 9 May 2017

Most people with a basic grounding in economics know that increasing the supply of money leads to a fall in the purchasing power of money. However, this is usually as far as their understanding goes and explains why monetary inflation is generally not […]

Major Story: Fed’s Bullard Admits Fed Misread Economy, Warns About Hiking Too Much

ibankcoin.com / Dr. Fly / May 8, 2017

This will get lost in the sauce today, ahead of Sally “the hero” Yates’ testimony. But Fed’s Bullard admitted that he and his pals misread the economy and that hiking rates like a crazed lunatic, with GDP growing sub 1%, might not be a great idea.

[…]

New Risk for Investors: Fed Considers Jacking Up Inflation Target

news.goldseek.com / By Stefan Gleason / 4 May 2017

Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke wants to raise all Americans’ cost of living.

Investors are under-estimating inflation risk. As a consequence, they are under-pricing inflation protecting assets including precious metals.

The Federal Reserve has given itself the objective of engineering an inflation rate of […]

The Turkish People Have Never Been More “Miserable”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 4, 2017 4:15 AM

Over the last year, as Turkey’s ‘sultan-for-life’ Recep Tayyip Erdogan has increased his dictatorial powers, so the nation’s “misery” has increased to record highs. Soaring inflation (amid a collapsing currency) and stubbornly high unemployment have combined with government crackdowns to see increasingly active […]

“Technology Has Changed The Game”: Why The Rise Of Robots Will Be A Permanent Deflationary Force

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 2, 2017 6:02 AM

Back in 2015, BofA put together a simple equation trying to explain the pervasive deflationary wave around the globe when it said that “Deflation = Debt plus Disruption plus Demographics.”

In his overnight take on recent events, Bloomberg macro commentator Mark Cudmore took […]

The Irony of Stable Inflation

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Jeffrey P. Snider via Alhambra Investments / May 1, 2017

In February 2000, the FOMC quietly switched from the CPI to the PCE Deflator as its standard for inflation measurement. There were various technical reasons for doing so, including the CPI’s employment of a geometric mean basis (which was in 2015 […]

Consumer Spending Flat, PCE Inflation Weakest Showing In 16 Years, Rate Hike Odds Rising

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 1, 2017

The market is increasingly convinced the Fed will hike in June, even as the economic data sinks.

CME Fedwatch shows a 67.4% chance of a rate hike in June, up from a week ago.

This is despite weakening economic reports today including flat consumer spending, […]

Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Slumps Back Below Mandate – What Now Janet?

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 1, 2017

Dear Janet, US economic growth is the weakest in 3 months and your favorite inflation indicator is below mandated levels – why are June rate-hike odds still at 70%?

So there’s this… (worst economic growth in 3 years)

***

And today there’s this… (inflation […]

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – To the Darkest Hour Comes the Dawn

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com / BY JESSE / 28 APRIL 2017

“Caesar was swimming in blood, Rome and the whole pagan world was mad. But those who had had enough of transgression and madness, those who were trampled upon, those whose lives were misery and oppression, all the weighed down, all the sad, all the unfortunate, came to […]