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“It Is A Battle Between Data And Theory” – Fed PhDs Second-Guess Inflation Model After 5 Years Of Failure

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Aug 17, 2017

Federal Reserve officials are finally waking up to the fact that there’s something wrong with their inflation models. It only took them five years.

As Bloomberg points out, the minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting, released yesterday, included a debate about whether the models […]

The Stock Market Bubble is So Big Even the Fed’s Talking About It

gainspainscapital.com / Graham Summers / August 17, 2017

The Fed confirmed yesterday that stocks are in a bubble.

Lost amidst the usual Fed-speak about inflation and other items were the following nuggets.

1) “Equities” (read: stocks) were the primary reason the Fed discussed financial stability risks.

2) The Fed raised its assessment of financial […]

S&P Futures, Euro, Stocks Fall After Fed’s Low Inflation Warning

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Aug 17, 2017

S&P futures, European stocks and bond yields all fell in early trade alongside oil and the euro after the latest Fed minutes expressed concern over weak U.S. inflation, while Asian equities rose overnight ahead of WalMart earnings and the latest ECB minutes. Gold rose as […]

Stocks, Dollar & Yields Sink After Fed Warns Of “Elevated Vulnerabilities” From High Asset Prices

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Aug 16, 2017 2:27 PM

The initial reactions wre modest but directionally ‘correct’ given the dovish bias to the Fed Minutes – stocks are up, bonds are up (lower in yield), and the dollar is down. But then traders read the warnings that due to excessively easy financial conditions, […]

Absurd Inflation Discussion by Fed Jackasses

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / August 16, 2017

Minutes of the July 25-26 FOMC Meeting show internal concern over the Fed’s inability to hit 2% inflation.

I counted 89 instances of “inflation” and 79 instances of “2”. As sub-categories of 2, there were 27 instances of “2 percent” and eight instances of […]

FOMC Minutes Signal Balance Sheet Normalization Begins In September, Most Saw Inflation Pick Up

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Aug 16, 2017 2:03 PM

Since the July 26th ‘nothingburger’ FOMC statement, Nasdaq is down but bonds and bullion are higher as domestic politics and global war have trumped monetary machinations. All eyes in today’s Minutes will be on any mention of inflation and the balance sheet. The […]

The Inflation/Deflation War Heats Up – What It Means For Gold And The Fed

kingworldnews.com / August 16, 2017

As we move through the middle of the month of trading in August, the inflation/deflation war is heating up. Importantly, what this will mean for gold and the Fed.

Inflation, Deflation And Gold

August 16 (King World News) – Here is what Peter Boockvar noted as the world awaits […]

The Two Things To Look For In Today’s FOMC Minutes

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Aug 16, 2017 12:23 PM

There are two, also known as non-GAAP four, things to look forward to in today’s FOMC Minutes: inflation, and balance sheet, balance sheet, balance sheet.

At 2pm, the FOMC will release the minutes of the July 25-26 meeting when, as expected, the Fed left […]

Retail Sales, Dudley, Wages

financialsense.com / TIM DUY PHD / 08/16/2017

Some quick thoughts for the day.

First, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley gave an extended interview to the Associate Press. Definitely worth the time to read. Some highlights:

1.) Dudley never put a Trump bump in his forecast, so his forecast is essentially unchanged:

[…]

How Central Banking Increased Inequality

mises.org / Louis Rouanet / August 16, 2017

Although today high levels of inequality in the United States remain a pressing concern for a large swath of the population, monetary policy and credit expansion are rarely mentioned as a likely source of rising wealth and income inequality. Focusing almost exclusively on consumer price inflation, […]

Record Number Of Fund Managers Say “Stocks Are Overvalued” As They Rush To Buy Nasdaq

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Aug 15, 2017

Another month, another paradox emerges in the latest Bank of America Fund Managers Survey, which on one hand reveals that a record number, or 46%, of Wall Street respondents say stocks are “overvalued”…

***

… even as the number of investors expecting a “Goldilocks” […]

The Return of Sound Money

news.goldseek.com / By George Smith / Tuesday, 15 August 2017

On Sunday evening, August 15, 1971, President Nixon told the American people the U.S. would “suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold or other reserve assets” as a means of defending the dollar against “the speculators.” This was one part of his New […]

Consumer Spending Expectations Down Again: Dear Fed, Why Don’t You Believe Your Own Survey?

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / August 14, 2017

Fed Chair Janet Yellen keeps citing consumer confidence and jobs as reasons consumer spending and inflation will pick up.

Curiously, the New York Fed Survey on Consumer Spending Expectations keeps trending lower and lower, despite survey-high expectations for wage growth.

READ MORE

[…]

The Fed’s Conundrum, QT And Gold

kingworldnews.com / August 14, 2017

As we continue to see some fascinating trading in the middle of August, it’s all about the Fed’s conundrum, QT, and gold.

The Fed’s Conundrum, QT And Gold August 15 (King World News) – Here is what Peter Boockvar noted as the world awaits the next round of […]

Greenback Firms, Encouraged by Dudley and Ebbing of Tensions

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / August 15, 2017

NY Fed President Dudley appears to have stolen any potential thunder in the July FOMC minutes that will be released tomorrow. While we put more emphasis on today’s US retail sales data and the August Fed surveys, many others argued that the minutes were the […]

18 European Countries Have Negative 2Y Sovereign Yields As Negative-yielding Bonds Hit $8.6 Trillion

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Anthony B Sanders via Snake Hole Lounge / August 14, 2017

The market value of the world’s negative-yielding bonds has jumped almost 25 percent over the past month to $8.6 trillion amid slower-than-forecast inflation data and as investors piled into the safest securities as perceptions of geopolitical risk increased. That’s happened […]

Worst Restaurant Recession since 2009 Digs Inflation

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Aug 14, 2017

Households at lower 80% of income scale are maxed out.

“July proved to be a tough month for chain restaurants,” the report said.

Foot traffic at chain restaurants fell 4.7% in July year-over-year. Same-store sales fell 2.8%, the 17th month in a row of year-over-year […]

Could Bitcoin Help Venezuelans As Crisis Deepens?

zerohedge.com / by Michael Kern via Crypto Insider / Aug 13, 2017 3:30 PM

Protests continue to rage in Venezuela as inflation soars to unprecedented levels and the price of oil remains low. The country’s national currency is now worth less than fictional gold in Azeroth, the setting of the popular massively multiplayer online […]

Inflation Mirage: Core Inflation Declines To 1.7% YoY, Real Average Hourly Earnings Decline To 0.7% YoY

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Anthony B Sanders via Snake Hole August 11, 2017

Inflation must seem like a mirage to Janet Yellen and The Federal Reserve. And no, it isn’t an oasis either. The US economy can’t seem to find inflation or wage growth despite near full employment (according to the Federal government, that is).

[…]

Are We Already in Recession?

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / SUNDAY, AUGUST 13, 2017

If we stop counting zombies, we’re already in recession.

How shocked would you be if it was announced that the U.S. had just entered a recession, that is, a period in which gross domestic product (GDP) declines (when adjusted for inflation) for two or […]

Bullard, Evans, Dudley and Gold

sunshineprofits.com / ARKADIUSZ SIEROŃ / AUGUST 11, 2017

This week, a few FOMC members delivered speeches. What do they imply for the gold market?

On Monday, James Bullard, St. Louis Fed President, said that the low inflation may not be temporary, so the Fed can leave interest rates unchanged:

“The current level of the policy […]

Inflation Spikes Most since 2008 in Mexico. Bad Timing

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Aug 10, 2017

Before the Elections and despite Bank of Mexico’s “monetary shock.”

Inflation is a touchy topic in Mexico where wages are tight and not growing fast enough. Inflation is spiking. And consumers, trying stretch ever further just to keep up, are not happy.

Consumer prices, as […]

“None Of It Was True”: 103 Years Later, The FT Admits It Lied And Colluded With The Bank of England

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Aug 9, 2017

When one strips away the lies about central banks’ “inflation and employment” mandates and focuses on what they really do – which is to keep asset prices artificially supported and volatility suppressed – the motive behind virtually every central bank act becomes readily apparent: […]

Is Inflation an issue or did the Fed Mess Up? Is Inflation an issue or did the Fed Mess Up?

news.goldseek.com / By: Sol Palha, Tactical Investor / 8 August 2017

The Fed has been trying to create the illusion that inflation is an issue. The guys from the hard money camp also maintain that inflation is an issue and to a point they are right. Their definition of inflation is an increase in the […]

Bullard: “Hard To Find Explanation For Low Inflation; Low-Vol Doesn’t Signal Anything

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden Aug 7, 2017 1:47 PM

When it comes to inflation in the US, there are generally two schools of thought:one is that inflation is woefully – and purposefully for political means – mismeasured, and that the real inflation is orders of magnitude higher than what the BLS, with its […]