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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

marctomarket.com / Dr. Win Thin / March 26, 2017

EM FX ended the week on a firm note. Indeed, virtually all of EM was up against the dollar last week, led by ZAR and MXN. BRL and PHP were the laggards. It remains to be seen how markets react to the failure to pass the […]

Atlanta GDPNow Confirms “Hard” Data Still Disappointing

financialsense.com / PATRICK O’HARE via Briefing.com / 03/24/2017

Have you checked the forecast lately? It calls for a continuation of gray skies and cool temperatures across the country. What a bummer… and what a misdirection.

We’re not alluding to the weather forecast. Rather, we are alluding to the first quarter real GDP growth forecast, […]

El-Erian Warns Of America’s CONfidence Economy

zerohedge.com / by Mohamed El-Erian via Project Syndicate / Mar 20, 2017 11:30 AM

Financial markets seem convinced that the recent surge in business and consumer confidence in the US economy will soon be reflected in “hard” data, such as GDP growth, business investment, consumption, and wages. But economists and policymakers are not so […]

Fed Hikes Rates For 3rd Time In 11 Years, Sees Two More Rate Hikes In 2017

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 15, 2017 2:01 PM

For the third time since June 2006, The Federal Reserve has hiked rates by 25bps (as 100% expected). If GDP forecasts for Q1 are correct, this will be the weakest economy since 1987 in which rates were increased.

In fact this could be the […]

Startled Reporter Asks Why Yellen Hiked With GDP And Real Wages Sliding: Here Is The Response

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 15, 2017 4:56 PM

Today’s FOMC press conference was the standard affair. Reporters ask broad questions, Yellen responds with even broader comments that amble aimlessly leaving no one any wiser as to The Fed’s true intent. That is, until Bloomberg TV’s Kathleen Hays decided enough was enough, […]

GDPNow Forecast Dips to 0.9%: Divergence with Nowcast Hits 2.3 Percentage Points – Why?

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 15, 2017

The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 […]

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP Forecast To Just 0.9% Hours Before Fed Rate Hike

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 15, 2017 12:00 PM

While it may not be the very definition of irony, we do find the fact that the Atlanta Fed has just cut its Q1 GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%, a number which if confirmed would be the lowest quarterly print in year, […]

Doug Noland: Unparalleled Credit and Global Yields

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Doug Noland via Credit Bubble Bulletin / March 10, 2017

New Fed Q4 Z.1 Credit and flow data was out this week. For the first time since 2007, annual Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) growth exceeded $2.0 TN – a bogey I’ve used as a rough estimate of sufficient new Credit to fuel […]

Divergence Between GDPNow and FRBNY Nowcast Hits Two Full Percentage Points

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 10, 2017

Since February 24, a string of bad economic reports drove the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1st quarter GDP from 2.5% to 1.2%

In the same timeframe, the FRBNY Nowcast Model rose slightly from 3.1% tp 3.2% in a report released today.

READ MORE

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China Central Bank Admits It Has A Debt Problem, Warns No Easy Solution

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 10, 2017 11:38 AM

It’s a well-known risk, perhaps the biggest to the global financial system: China’s debt is too high, with estimates ranging from 250% to 300% of GDP per the IIF:

And while China has largely ignored, or avoided, discussing the troubling implications of its […]

Deutsche Bank Tries to Stay Alive

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter • Mar 9, 2017

Shares soar 75% in five months, infamous CoCo bonds jump 30%

Let me say this upfront: When an at-risk too-big-to-fail bank raises fresh capital from investors, it’s a great thing for affected taxpayers. When push comes to shove, every dollar thus extracted from investors lowers […]

It Took $4 In New Debt To Create $1 In GDP

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 9, 2017 2:56 PM

Bill Gross’ letter discussing the credit deluge hitting the US came out at a convenient time: just as the Federal Reserve released its latest Flow of Funds report, which while most track to show the change in average household net worth – which is […]

How the Economic Crisis in Greece Will Impact Your Money

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Ashley Moore via Money Morning / March 9, 2017

Greece is running out of money. Now with a debt repayment of €8.26 billion ($8.74 billion) due in July, the economic crisis in Greece could have a major impact on the portfolios of investors around the globe.

While investors in the United […]

Bill Gross: “Our Financial System Is A Truckload Of Nitroglycerin On A Bumpy Road”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 9, 2017 2:16 PM

Courtesy of Bill Gross’ latest monthly letter “Show Me The Money“, here are some perspectives on the only thing that has kept the global economy going since the financial crisis: debt, and lost of it.

in 2017, the global economy has created […]

GDPNow 1st Quarter Estimate Dips to 1.2%, FRBNY Nowcast 3.1%: One Model is Seriously Wrong

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 9, 2017

The Atlanta Fed GDPNOw Model for 1st quarter GDP dipped once again today and now sits at 1.2% as of March 9.

Meanwhile, the FRBNY Nowcast Model sits at a robust 3.1%. as of March 3.

The spread is just shy of two full […]

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast Spirals Down in Amazing Manner

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Mar 8, 2017

Where has all the optimism gone?

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which forecasts GDP growth in the US in the current quarter, picks up data as it is released and changes the forecast in real time. As the quarter advances and as more data is […]

Wholesale Trade Inventories Decline; Revisions Announced; First Quarter GDP Troubles Brewing

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 8, 2017

According to the Census Department’s Monthly Wholesale Trade Report, inventories declined 0.2% in January.

This is a negative for first-quarter GDP estimates.

However, the Census Department issued an “Intention to Revise” notice so the whole report and back reports are suspect.

Intention to Revise

Monthly […]

America’s Women Go On Strike, Pledge To “Avoid Spending Money” (Men Celebrate)

What this text means for former employees at a restaurant in #Catoosa coming up at 6 on @KTULNews pic.twitter.com/WaMLt9znAA

— Ethan Hutchins (@ehutchinsnews) February 17, 2017

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 8, 2017 11:39 AM

Women all around the United States plan to use today, International Women’s Day, to […]

Q1 GDP Now Just 1.2% According To Atlanta Fed; Rate Hike Imminent

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 8, 2017 11:55 AM

Another day, another downgrade to US GDP: after yesterday the Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 GDPNow estimate from 1.8% to 1.3% – with the forecast as high as 3% at the start of the year, and 2.5% as recently as the end of […]

Market Euphoria, China’s Dumping of Treasuries Ignite Recession Concerns

streetwisereports.com / Lior Gantz / March 06, 2017

Each of the last five major U.S. recessions were preceded by a shrinking global trade as a percentage of GDP.

Peak globalization might go down in history as May 7, with the French elections, and it could signal the first major crash since 2008.

We’ve been […]

GDPNow 1st Quarter Forecast Plunges to 1.3% Following Vehicle Sales and Factory Orders Reports

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 7, 2017

The GDPNow Model forecast for 1st quarter 2017 GDP plunged 0.5 percentage points to 1.3% following recent economic data.

Today’s dismal trade data was not a factor. Advance trade data on February 28 showed the trade deficit in goods jumped 7.6% to $69.2 billion, and […]

Atlanta Fed Slashes Q1 GDP To Only 1.3% With Yellen Set To Hike

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 7, 2017 10:49 AM

One week ago, we pointed out a curious bifurcation: the Fed was telegraphing an imminent rate hike – one which following Yellen’s Friday conference is now virtually assured – even though it appears the FOMC would be hiking in a quarter in which […]

OECD Warns There Is A “Disconnect” Between Markets And The Global Economy

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 7, 2017 10:34 AM

In a report released this morning by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development titled “Will risks derail the modest recovery? Financial vulnerabilities and policy risks” the OECD warns the global economy may not be strong enough to withstand risks from increased trade […]

China’s Banking System Hits $33 Trillion, Overtaking The Eurozone As World’s Largest

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 6, 2017 11:33 AM

Something historic, if largely unnoticed, took place at the end of 2016: China’s banking system surpassed that of the eurozone, becoming the world’s largest by assets, which according to the FT is a sign of both of the country’s increased influence in world […]

Is Mexico Facing “Liquidity Problems?”

wolfstreet.com / by Don Quijones / Mar 5, 2017

At 49% of GDP, Mexico’s public debt may seem pretty low by today’s inflated standards. It’s a mere fraction of the debt loads amassed by bigger, richer economies such as Japan (229% of GDP), Italy (133%) and the United States (104%). But when it comes to […]