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Russell Napier: Debt Deflation Worries Are Starting to Rise Again

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financialsense.com / FS STAFF / 11/14/2017

There’s been very little deleveraging after the last financial crisis and, in fact, debt levels are at new records globally, which means investors should be thinking about the risk of “debtflation,” Russell Napier, editor of The Solid Ground, told FS Insider last […]

Living in the Shadow of a Volcano: The US National Debt in Perspective

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schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD / NOVEMBER 14, 2017

Every once in a while, a mainstream news outlet publishes a piece about the national debt. Here and there, politicians trot out the surging debt as a talking point to make some political hay. Now and then, an economist will […]

Is GE A “Black Swan” In Plain Sight?

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investmentresearchdynamics.com / November 14, 2017

GE hit $8 in 2008. If you short the stock with some patience, in my opinion it’s a low-risk bet that it will drop at least 50% over the next 12-18 months. – From the January 29, 2017 Short Seller’s Journal with GE stock […]

Weekend Reading: It’s The Debt, Stupid

zerohedge.com / by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com / Nov 10, 2017 4:45 PM

As I noted last Friday, the recently approved budget was an anathema to any fiscally conservative policy. As the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget stated:

“Republicans in Congress laid out two visions in two budgets for our fiscal future, and today, […]

China Accounts For A Third Of Global Corporate Debt And GDP… And The ECB Is Getting Very Worried

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 10, 2017 3:35 PM

There is a certain, and very tangible, irony in the central banks’ response to the Global Financial Crisis, which was first and foremost the result of unprecedented amounts of debt: it was to unleash an even greater amount of debt, or as BofA’s […]

Europe Is Booming, Except It’s Not

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Jeffrey P. Snider via Alhambra Investments / November 6, 2017

European GDP rose 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2017, the eighteenth consecutive increase for the Continental (EA 19) economy. That latter result is being heralded as some sort of achievement, though the 0.6% is also to a lesser degree. The truth is […]

Tax Cuts will Balloon US Debt to 120% of GDP, but Boost to Economy will be “Short-Lived”

wolfstreet.com /by Wolf Richter / Nov 7, 2017

US is the “most indebted AAA-country” and runs “the loosest fiscal stance,” but the dollar as Reserve Currency still props it up: Fitch

It’s uncertain what if anything in the mix of tax cuts and tax increases being kicked around in Congress will become law. But Fitch […]

Turkey: A Case Study in the Borrower’s Dilemma

mauldineconomics.com / BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND XANDER SNYDER / NOVEMBER 6, 2017

Editor’s Note: Before we begin, allow us to mention a short survey we’ll be sending in next week’s This Week in Geopolitics. This will provide you with an opportunity to tell us what topics you’re most interested in. We want our content to […]

4th Quarter Forecast: Nowcast 3.2% vs GDPNow 3.3% (Down from 4.5% on Nov. 1)

themaven.net / by Mike Mish Shedlock / NOV 3, 2017

Following the ISM manufacturing report, the GDPNow model upped its 4th quarter GDP forecast from 2.9% to 4.5%. Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast weighed in with a 3.2% forecast. Also today, GDPNow revised its forecast to 3.3%.

In the story […]

Warming Economy, Red Hot Stock Market

financialsense.com / KURT KALLAUS / 11/02/2017

With 15% gains in the major stock indices (Nasdaq 28%) stocks are on pace for their 4th best year since 1999. Precursors of accelerating economic growth abound in 2017, reflective of the rebounding earnings and future expectations. The stubbornly sluggish US GDP continues to hover near its 2.1% […]

Atlanta Fed Now Sees Q4 GDP At Blistering 4.5%

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 1, 2017 11:53 AM

True to form, the Atlanta Fed – which has a habit of overshooting massively at the start of the quarter based on optimistic estimates only to ease sharply lower on its GDP “nowcast” as the “hard” data comes in – has unveiled its […]

Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 3.0%

financialsense.com / JILL MISLINSKI / 11/01/2017

The Advance Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 3.0% (2.99% to two decimal places), a decrease over 3.1% for the Q2 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.5%.

Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:

[…]

Watch Live: The Most Anticipated White House Press Briefing Yet?

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 30, 2017 12:55 PM

Ms. Sanders may have her hands full today… but then again she has handled as much for the last few months.

Things the press won’t care about… Houston Texans mass kneel-in, more Uranium One details tying to Hillary/Dems, more FusionGPS details being exposed about […]

Canada in for a Rough Patch Even if Rates Stay Low for a Long Time

financialsense.com / DANIELLE PARK / 10/30/2017

The Loonie is tumbling and Canadian bonds rallying as the Bank of Canada backs away from its rate hiking plans in ‘surprise’ over the slowing Canadian economy.

Meanwhile, a new report from the National Energy Board brings good news for the planet (that is bad for Canadian GDP in […]

Trade vs Growth or Trade & Growth?

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Constantin Gurdgiev / October 28, 2017

Much has been written down recently about the dramatic slowdown in growth in global trade flows. For example, after rebounding post-Global Financial Crisis (global trade volumes fell 10.46% in 2009) in 2010-2011 (rising 12.52% and 7.1% respectively), trade volumes growth slowed to below 4% per annum […]

US Q3 GDP Grows At 3.0% Despite 2nd Consecutive Quarter of Negative Residential Investment Growth (Lowest Since 2010)

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Anthony B Sanders / October 27, 2017

Q3 GDP was released this morning and QoQ Real GDP (annualized) grew at a 3% pace. This follows a 3.1% QoQ growth rate in Q2.

READ MORE

How Much Illusion in GDP? What You See Is Not What You Get

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Oct 27, 2017

Oh, the revisions.

The US economy, as measured by “real” GDP (adjusted for a version of inflation) grew 0.74% in the third quarter, compared to the prior quarter. That was a tad slower than the 0.76% growth in Q2, but up from the 0.31% growth in […]

Even Less Inside Q3 GDP, Especially Where It Counts

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Jeffrey P. Snider / October 27, 2017

Inside the advance third quarter GDP report, the details in most of the important categories suggested slowing after two quarters consistent with “reflation” at least in its third try. If the economy swings between shallow downturns and often shallower upturns, these subcategories give us some […]

UK Retail Employment Plunges Most Since 2008 As Retail Sales Crash

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 27, 2017 2:45 AM

Yesterday we noted the surge in cable following the stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP print of 0.4% Q/Q, above the 0.3% estimate.Afterwards, the market was calculating an 87% chance that the BoE would hike next week. Brown Brothers commented that:

The case against a hike […]

Inventories a GDP Wildcard: Email Exchange With Pat Higgins

themaven.net / by Mike Mish Shedlock / Oct 26, 2017

 

About 1 million cars were damaged by recent hurricanes. Inventory was wiped up in some dealers. Inventory replenishment is up, and not just for autos. This poses a problem in forecasting third-quarter GDP. Did the change in private inventories (CIPI) rise or fall? […]

Cable Soars After Strong UK GDP, Boosting Rate Hike Odds

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 25, 2017 8:48 AM

It all started at 9:30am local time, when the UK reported a stronger than expected Q3 GDP print of 0.4% Q/Q, above the Exp. 0.3%, and 1.5% Y/Y, also above the Exp. 1.4%. Heading into the report there was much anticipation, due to […]

Gold Prices Hit 3-Week Low as UK GDP Makes Rate Rise a ‘Done Deal’, GOP Back Taylor Rule at US Fed

financialsense.com / ADRIAN ASH / 10/25/2017

Gold prices fell to the lowest in 3 weeks against all major currencies in London on Wednesday, falling as world stock markets rose after Wall Street set fresh all-time highs despite growing expectations of tighter central-bank policy in the US, UK, and Eurozone.

UK government Gilt yields jumped […]

Bill Blain: “Some Of The Ongoing Market Evolution Really Scares Me”

zerohedge.com / by Bill Blain of Mint Partners / Oct 24, 2017 9:38 AM

“Rate yourself and rake yourself, take all the courage you have left, wasted on fixing all the problems that you made in your own head.”

All the usual uncertainty, but are global stocks really so highly overvalued relative to GDP?

[…]

Falling Interest

news.goldseek.com / By Keith Weiner / 23 October 2017

Last week, we discussed the marginal productivity of debt. This is how much each newly-borrowed dollar adds to GDP. And ever since the interest rate began its falling trend in 1981, marginal productivity of debt has tightly correlated with interest. The lower the interest rate, the […]

The 4 Possible Channels For A Chinese Financial Crisis

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 23, 2017 3:56 PM

That China is a widely accepted global outlier in the context of credit, debt and leverage, look no further than the latest Financial Stability Report from the IMF, which in no uncertain terms lays out where China can be “found” relative to its G-20 […]