marctomarket.com / Dr. Win Thin / March 26, 2017
EM FX ended the week on a firm note. Indeed, virtually all of EM was up against the dollar last week, led by ZAR and MXN. BRL and PHP were the laggards. It remains to be seen how markets react to the failure to pass the […]
financialsense.com / PATRICK O’HARE via Briefing.com / 03/24/2017
Have you checked the forecast lately? It calls for a continuation of gray skies and cool temperatures across the country. What a bummer… and what a misdirection.
We’re not alluding to the weather forecast. Rather, we are alluding to the first quarter real GDP growth forecast, […]
zerohedge.com / by Mohamed El-Erian via Project Syndicate / Mar 20, 2017 11:30 AM
Financial markets seem convinced that the recent surge in business and consumer confidence in the US economy will soon be reflected in “hard” data, such as GDP growth, business investment, consumption, and wages. But economists and policymakers are not so […]
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 15, 2017 2:01 PM
For the third time since June 2006, The Federal Reserve has hiked rates by 25bps (as 100% expected). If GDP forecasts for Q1 are correct, this will be the weakest economy since 1987 in which rates were increased.
In fact this could be the […]
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 15, 2017 4:56 PM
Today’s FOMC press conference was the standard affair. Reporters ask broad questions, Yellen responds with even broader comments that amble aimlessly leaving no one any wiser as to The Fed’s true intent. That is, until Bloomberg TV’s Kathleen Hays decided enough was enough, […]
mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 15, 2017
The Fed hiked today, smack in the face of an Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast of 0.9 percent.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 […]
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 15, 2017 12:00 PM
While it may not be the very definition of irony, we do find the fact that the Atlanta Fed has just cut its Q1 GDP forecast from 1.2% to 0.9%, a number which if confirmed would be the lowest quarterly print in year, […]
wallstreetexaminer.com / by Doug Noland via Credit Bubble Bulletin / March 10, 2017
New Fed Q4 Z.1 Credit and flow data was out this week. For the first time since 2007, annual Total Non-Financial Debt (NFD) growth exceeded $2.0 TN – a bogey I’ve used as a rough estimate of sufficient new Credit to fuel […]
mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 10, 2017
Since February 24, a string of bad economic reports drove the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1st quarter GDP from 2.5% to 1.2%
In the same timeframe, the FRBNY Nowcast Model rose slightly from 3.1% tp 3.2% in a report released today.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 10, 2017 11:38 AM
It’s a well-known risk, perhaps the biggest to the global financial system: China’s debt is too high, with estimates ranging from 250% to 300% of GDP per the IIF:
And while China has largely ignored, or avoided, discussing the troubling implications of its […]
wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter • Mar 9, 2017
Shares soar 75% in five months, infamous CoCo bonds jump 30%
Let me say this upfront: When an at-risk too-big-to-fail bank raises fresh capital from investors, it’s a great thing for affected taxpayers. When push comes to shove, every dollar thus extracted from investors lowers […]
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 9, 2017 2:56 PM
Bill Gross’ letter discussing the credit deluge hitting the US came out at a convenient time: just as the Federal Reserve released its latest Flow of Funds report, which while most track to show the change in average household net worth – which is […]
wallstreetexaminer.com / by Ashley Moore via Money Morning / March 9, 2017
Greece is running out of money. Now with a debt repayment of €8.26 billion ($8.74 billion) due in July, the economic crisis in Greece could have a major impact on the portfolios of investors around the globe.
While investors in the United […]
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 9, 2017 2:16 PM
Courtesy of Bill Gross’ latest monthly letter “Show Me The Money“, here are some perspectives on the only thing that has kept the global economy going since the financial crisis: debt, and lost of it.
in 2017, the global economy has created […]
mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 9, 2017
The Atlanta Fed GDPNOw Model for 1st quarter GDP dipped once again today and now sits at 1.2% as of March 9.
Meanwhile, the FRBNY Nowcast Model sits at a robust 3.1%. as of March 3.
The spread is just shy of two full […]
wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / Mar 8, 2017
Where has all the optimism gone?
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which forecasts GDP growth in the US in the current quarter, picks up data as it is released and changes the forecast in real time. As the quarter advances and as more data is […]
mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 8, 2017
According to the Census Department’s Monthly Wholesale Trade Report, inventories declined 0.2% in January.
This is a negative for first-quarter GDP estimates.
However, the Census Department issued an “Intention to Revise” notice so the whole report and back reports are suspect.
Intention to Revise
What this text means for former employees at a restaurant in #Catoosa coming up at 6 on @KTULNews pic.twitter.com/WaMLt9znAA
— Ethan Hutchins (@ehutchinsnews) February 17, 2017
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 8, 2017 11:39 AM
Women all around the United States plan to use today, International Women’s Day, to […]
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 8, 2017 11:55 AM
Another day, another downgrade to US GDP: after yesterday the Atlanta Fed slashed its Q1 GDPNow estimate from 1.8% to 1.3% – with the forecast as high as 3% at the start of the year, and 2.5% as recently as the end of […]
streetwisereports.com / Lior Gantz / March 06, 2017
Each of the last five major U.S. recessions were preceded by a shrinking global trade as a percentage of GDP.
Peak globalization might go down in history as May 7, with the French elections, and it could signal the first major crash since 2008.
We’ve been […]
mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 7, 2017
The GDPNow Model forecast for 1st quarter 2017 GDP plunged 0.5 percentage points to 1.3% following recent economic data.
Today’s dismal trade data was not a factor. Advance trade data on February 28 showed the trade deficit in goods jumped 7.6% to $69.2 billion, and […]
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 7, 2017 10:49 AM
One week ago, we pointed out a curious bifurcation: the Fed was telegraphing an imminent rate hike – one which following Yellen’s Friday conference is now virtually assured – even though it appears the FOMC would be hiking in a quarter in which […]
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 7, 2017 10:34 AM
In a report released this morning by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development titled “Will risks derail the modest recovery? Financial vulnerabilities and policy risks” the OECD warns the global economy may not be strong enough to withstand risks from increased trade […]
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Mar 6, 2017 11:33 AM
Something historic, if largely unnoticed, took place at the end of 2016: China’s banking system surpassed that of the eurozone, becoming the world’s largest by assets, which according to the FT is a sign of both of the country’s increased influence in world […]
wolfstreet.com / by Don Quijones / Mar 5, 2017
At 49% of GDP, Mexico’s public debt may seem pretty low by today’s inflated standards. It’s a mere fraction of the debt loads amassed by bigger, richer economies such as Japan (229% of GDP), Italy (133%) and the United States (104%). But when it comes to […]