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April Durable Goods: Yet Another Weak Second-Quarter Report

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 26, 2017

The string of bad economic reports at the start of the second quarter continues with today’s durable goods report.

Durable goods in April fell 0.7% vs an Econoday consensus estimate of -1.0%, but the good news (if you call that good news), stops there.

Highlights

[…]

FOMC Minutes Signal Rate-Hike “Soon”, Economic Weakness “Transitory”, Fears “Asset Valuation Pressures”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 24, 2017 2:03 PM

Having top-ticked US economic data with its March rate-hike, all eyes are on the May minutes to confirm the total lack of data-dependence now present at The Fed. The main focus of the minutes was on the ‘normalization’ of the balance sheet (since […]

S&P Futs Near All Time High On Strong Euro Data; Oil Drops On Trump’s SPR Sale Plans

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 23, 2017 7:05 AM

S&P futures rose alongside European stocks as Asian shares posted modest declines. The euro set a new six-month high and European bourses rose as PMI data from Germany and France signaled that the ECB will have to tighten soon as Europe’s recovery remains […]

Key Events In The Coming Week: FOMC Minutes, GDP, BOC, OPEC And More

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 22, 2017 9:06 AM

The key highlights in the coming week are the Fed minutes, the Eurogroup meeting on Greece, the OPEC meeting and Bank of Canada rate decision. We also get GDP releases in the US, Eurozone, and UK, while a murder (or gaggle) of Fed speaker […]

A Bad Recipe: Failing Growth Amidst Sustained Global QE, Debt & Bubble Valuations

schiffgold.com / By Dan Kurz / MAY 17, 2017

Economic growth came in at a tepid 0.7% in the first quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, officials at the Federal Reserve continue to insist the economy is strong. They held interest rates steady in April, but insisted hikes were still on the table. In fact, the Atlanta […]

Out With The Fake, In With The Real!

milesfranklin.com / by Andrew Hoffman / May 15, 2017

All weekend, I’ve been debating what to focus on this morning, given all that is “competing” for my attention. After all, it’s difficult to ignore what I view as the “peak fake” environment of financial market history – as evidenced by the VIX volatility index; itself, […]

Key Events In The Coming Quiet Week: US Industrial Production In Focus

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 15, 2017 8:30 AM

It is a relatively quiet week for economic news in the and Eurozone with focus turning to UK data, Japan 1Q GDP, inflation in Canada & Australia’s employment report. Norway GDP should show continued improvement and the Riksbank proposal on a new policy target […]

No…You Can’t Have Your 90’s Back

zerohedge.com / by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com / May 15, 2017 8:14 AM

As I was writing the newsletter this past weekend, the following email rolled into my inbox:

“The S&P will double. And not just eventually. But over the next 5 years (or sooner). Sounds like a Herculean task on the surface, […]

$500 Trillion in Derivatives “Remain an Important Asset Class”: Hilariously, the New York Fed

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter • May 13, 2017

Oh, and the unintended consequences of trying to regulate a monster.

Economists at the New York Fed included this gem in their report on a two-day conference on “Derivatives and Regulatory Changes” since the Financial Crisis:

Though the notional amount [of derivatives] outstanding has […]

Trump Administration Admits 3.0% GDP Growth “Is Certainly Not Achievable This Year”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 10, 2017 9:18 AM

The U.S. economy will fall short of the Trump administration’s goal of 3 percent growth this year and will only achieve that when its regulatory, tax, trade and energy policies are fully in place, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Tuesday.

The […]

Commerce Secretary Throws Bucket of Cold Water on Economic Growth Projections

schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD / MAY 10, 2017

US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross poured a bucket of cold water on promises of robust economic growth in the first year of the Trump administration.

Trump set a goal of 3% GDP growth for 2017, but Ross said “it’s certainly not achievable this year, ” […]

Import Prices Surge vs Export Prices: Bad News for GDP Forecasts

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 10, 2017

Both import and export prices rose in April but the primary surge is in import prices.

There is nothing to cheer about in this news, but the Econoday squawking loudly nonetheless.

Price data were unusually weak in March and now the first indication in […]

Devonshire: True Inflation Is Three Times Higher Than Officially Reported

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 9, 2017 5:13 PM

A fascinating, recent report by the Devonshire Research Group, whose recent work on Tesla was featured here one year ago, has moved beyond the micro and tackled on of the most controversial macroeconomic topic possible: what is the true rate of inflation. What […]

Auto Inventories Surge: How’s That Going to Work?

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 9, 2017

Wholesale inventories in March rose 0.2% as expected by the Econoday consensus. February was revised from 0.4% to 0.3 which will take a tick off GDP first-quarter revisions.

Wholesale inventories came in at a consensus 0.2 percent increase led by a sharp build in autos, […]

Just One Week Later, Atlanta Fed’s Q2 GDP Forecast Crumbles From 4.3% to 3.6%

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 9, 2017 12:36 PM

It’s deja vu all over again.

Four months after the Atlanta Fed started off its Q1 GDP nowcast at 2.5%, then raised it just shy of 3.5% before eventually crashing, and closing the books at 0.2%, slightly below where the BEA reported Q1 […]

Major Story: Fed’s Bullard Admits Fed Misread Economy, Warns About Hiking Too Much

ibankcoin.com / Dr. Fly / May 8, 2017

This will get lost in the sauce today, ahead of Sally “the hero” Yates’ testimony. But Fed’s Bullard admitted that he and his pals misread the economy and that hiking rates like a crazed lunatic, with GDP growing sub 1%, might not be a great idea.

[…]

Why the US Economy Isn’t Earning Its Keep

financialsense.com / PATRICK O’HARE via Briefing.com / 05/08/2017

It is often said that you have to earn your keep to make it in this world. Fortunately, there is an all-time, seasonally-adjusted high of 146,063,000 employees on nonfarm payrolls earning their keep. The unfortunate part is that their average hourly earnings aren’t accelerating in a […]

Is this Really the Scariest Chart in the World?

schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD / MAY 5, 2017

True Economics called it “the scariest chart in the world.”

That may be a little bit of hyperbole, but a chart showing declining average rates of growth during each economic expansionary period since the 1950s is certainly cause for concern.

Almost non-existent economic growth in […]

Did Trump Get Thumped … or Supporters Get Dumped?

news.goldseek.com / By David Haggith / 4 May 2017

Trump’s supporters are increasingly alarmed, outspoken and feeling betrayed as their champion rolls over and plays lap dog for the political establishment. Even Rush Limbaugh, Trump’s golfing buddy and longtime advocate, said this week that what is happening with Trump and the Republicans is a “sellout” […]

U.S. Treasury Looking into ‘Ultra-Long Bonds’, In Order to Finance Our Degeneracy

ibankcoin.com / Dr. Fly / May 3, 2017

When Reagan was building nuclear warheads and talking about Star Wars as a mode in defeating Red Russia in a nuclear war, US debt to GDP was 33%. Today, thanks to the deleterious schemes of Bush and Obama, debt to GDP is 101%, or $21 trillion.

[…]

Domestic vs. Global Indicators – A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats

financialsense.com / MATTHEW KERKHOFF / 05/02/2017

I’ve made the case in recent articles that the current rally in US equities is not so much a domestic response, but rather a case of global reflation. If that thesis holds water, then weak economic data here in the US is unlikely to derail this rally, but a […]

Tracking GDPNow Forecasts vs. Reality: What About that Initial 2nd Quarter Estimate?

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 2, 2017

On May 1, the GDPNow Model came up with an initial forecast of 4.3% for second quarter GDP.

My first reaction was “here we go again”. That was quickly followed by “I’ll take the under, way under” bet.

Let’s take a look at the latest […]

Consumer Spending Stalled In March; Price Index Falls for First Time Since February of 2016

ibankcoin.com / Dr. Fly / May 1, 2017

When was the last time retail was worthy of discussion, other than to wishcast over its demise?

Consumer spending for March was weaker than expected, unchanged compared to a +0.2% estimate.

On Friday, GDP came in at the slowest pace since 2009 — yet the Federal […]

After A Disastrous Quarter, Atlanta Fed Now Expects Q2 GDP To Hit 4.3%

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 1, 2017 11:53 AM

Call it deja vu all over again.

Four months after the Atlanta Fed started off its Q1 GDP nowcast at 2.5%, then raised it just shy of 3.5% before eventually closing the books at 0.2%, slightly below where the BEA reported Q1 GDP, […]

Dr. Doom: The US Economy Is Terminally Sick

schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD / APRIL 28, 2017

Marc Faber appeared on CNBC Futures Now recently to talk about the impending pop of the stock market bubble. “Dr. Doom” has predicted a 20% to 40% stock market selloff in the near future.The show’s host, along will Scott Nations, pressed Faber on the surging stock market. […]