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Fed Fail? Traders Cut Rate-Hike Bets By The Most In History Last Week

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 27, 2017

The last two weeks have seen speculators cover over $710 billion worth of Fed rate-hike bets – the biggest move in Eurodollar futures history as Trump concerns and Fed Minutes reignite lost faith in the ebullient future that sparked the creation of a record $3 […]

Carson Block Says “Laws Of Economics” Dictate China Will Face “Day Of Reckoning”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 27, 2017

Muddy Waters Research founder Carson Block believes that China’s overleveraged economy will eventually face a “day of reckoning.” He just can’t say when.

During an interview with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker, Block, who made his name betting against shady Chinese companies trading in the US, […]

Fed’s Shrinking Balance Sheet and Gold

sunshineprofits.com / ARKADIUSZ SIEROŃ / MAY 26, 2017

As we wrote in the Gold News Monitor, the latest FOMC minutes suggest that the Fed may start decreasing its balance sheet later this year. There are many unknowns about this process, so we will closely watch the U.S. central bank’s comments and actions in this context. […]

Sentiment Speaks: Central Banks Control Nothing

news.goldseek.com / By Avi Gilburt / 26 May 2017

Many believe in the Fed/PPT’s Omnipotence

The thickness of intellectual dishonesty amongst pundits and analysts in this stock market needs a power-saw to be cut through. And nothing presents this perspective more clearly than the certain belief in the power of central banks to prop up […]

RBC Explains What The Hell Is Going On: “Prudent” Fed & Chinese Intervention

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 25, 2017 9:51 AM

A “prudent” Fed (and China’s “National Team”) have spurred a risk-on rally, as RBC’s head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott notes the market’s ‘Pavolovian’ response to Fed’s ‘dovish hints’ contained within the Minutes – despite simultaneously staying ‘on message’ with hiking / tapering […]

Fed Eyes Second Quarter Recovery, Expects Trump Fiscal Policy Will Expand Economy

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 25, 2017

Data supporting the second quarter recovery thesis is nonexistent. Four out of four of the recent hard data economic reports have been negative.

Soft data diffusion indexes do not look so hot either.

Earlier today the Census Bureau reported the trade deficit widened. The same […]

FOMC Minutes Signal Rate-Hike “Soon”, Economic Weakness Probably “Transitory” But Need “Evidence”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 24, 2017

Having top-ticked US economic data with its March rate-hike, all eyes are on the May minutes to confirm the total lack of data-dependence now present at The Fed. The main focus of the minutes was on the ‘normalization’ of the balance sheet (since June […]

Fed Warns “Vulnerabilities” From Elevated Asset Valuations “Pose Risks To Financial Stability”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 24, 2017

In today’s FOMC Minutes, Fed member issued yet another explicit warning to America’s investing public (before they pull the pin on the balance sheet normalization) about asset valuations beiung “vulnerable” and also piling on once again that commercial real estate values were “elevated.”

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Of […]

Here Is The Latest Breakdown Of Fed Hawks And Doves

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 24, 2017 12:24 PM

Ahead of today’s FOMC minutes, UBS reminds us that there has been substantial turnover on the FOMC, and so the Swiss bank has updated its periodic commentary on FOMC participants, as well as its popular “hawk-dove” chart.

While many of the actors are […]

Is the Manufacturing Growth Slowdown No Longer Welcome? Already?

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 24, 2017

On May 15, the Empire State manufacturing report kicked off the start of monthly regional Fed manufacturing reports with a composite reading of -1.0 vs an Econoday consensus expectation of 8.0.

Econoday called the Empire State slowdown “welcome news”. It feared manufacturing was overheating.

Yesterday, the […]

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – We Inflate Assets and Crush People

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com / 24 MAY 2017

“Legitimate power always includes attentiveness to justice, When power is not attentive to justice it cannot endure. This is a summons to us to keep the agenda of justice for the vulnerable alive and front and center to maintain a kind of subversive stance toward power.

The market ideology […]

China Downgrade Forgotten As Asia Closes Higher, Futures Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 24, 2017 6:44 AM

Not even last night’s Moody’s credit downgrade of China – the first since 1989 – could dent the global stock rally which has pushed global stock prices to all time highs. After initially sliding, regional stocks and emerging Asian currencies pared early losses […]

FOMC Minutes Signal Rate-Hike “Soon”, Economic Weakness “Transitory”, Fears “Asset Valuation Pressures”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 24, 2017 2:03 PM

Having top-ticked US economic data with its March rate-hike, all eyes are on the May minutes to confirm the total lack of data-dependence now present at The Fed. The main focus of the minutes was on the ‘normalization’ of the balance sheet (since […]

Moving Closer to the Precipice

acting-man.com / Pater Tenebrarum / May 23, 2017

Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Falter

The decline in the growth rate of the broad US money supply measure TMS-2 that started last November continues, but the momentum of the decline has slowed last month (TMS = “true money supply”). The data were recently updated […]

21/5/17: Student Loans Debt: The Bubble is Still Inflating

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Constantin Gurdgiev / Monday, May 22, 2017

Having covered the latest news on the U.S. household debt continued explosion (see http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2017/05/19517-us-household-debt-things-are-much.html) and the ongoing deepening of the long term insolvency within the U.S. Social Security system (here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2017/05/19517-reminder-social-security-is-only.html), let’s take a look at the second largest source of household debt (after […]

Markets Face A Brutal “Margin Call” If Trump Loses Any More Credibility, Deutsche Warns

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 21, 2017 8:35 PM

It took the Fed several long years to discover just how reflexive and circular the relationship it had established with the stock market had become. The Fed’s Catch-22 was first observed back in September 2013, when as the Fed was still debating whether […]

We Now Know “Who Hit The Brakes” As Loan Creation Crashes To Six Year Low

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 21, 2017 5:00 PM

The wheels are falling off the US bank loan market.

After we first showed in early March the steep drop in bank loan creation for both Commercial and Industrial, auto and total loans – all traditionally leading indicators to economic contraction and recession […]

Evercore: If Markets Drop More, Don’t Expect To Be Bailed Out By The Fed This Time

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 18, 2017 9:21 AM

When we were discussing the self-reinforcing dynamics of vol-neutral funds yesterday, which may or may not continue selling today depending on what the VIX does, we concluded that aside from the decision-making mechanics of systematic funds, the biggest question would be if the Fed, […]

Philly Fed Smashes Expectations Despite Tumbling New Orders & Employment

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 18, 2017 8:40 AM

With ‘soft’ data broadly tumbling to catch down to ‘hard’ data’s demise, today’s Philly Fed exuberance stands out like badly-adjusted sore thumb. Beating expectations by 6 standard deviations (38.8 vs 18.5 exp),

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Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Surges Again, Positive for Ten Months

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 18, 2017

The Philadelphia Fed Regional Manufacturing Index surged again this month but remains below two higher recovery highs.

51.3 percent of business say “general business activity is better than last month”. 35.5% report no change, while 12.5% of businesses assess they are worse off than last […]

Minneapolis Fed Pres Says Keep Those Bubbles Inflated

schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD / MAY 18, 2017

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank should keep the bubbles inflated.

OK, he didn’t say that exactly. But that was the message reading between the lines of a speech Kaskari delivered this week. Specifically, the Minneapolis Fed president said the Federal Reserve […]

Balance Sheet Normalization, Or Not

mises.org / C.Jay Engel / May 17, 2017

Politicians, bureaucrats, and media talking heads specialize in saying one thing but meaning something else. In Fed world, something referred to as “balance sheet normalization” would be thought to be a return of balance sheet levels to pre-crisis numbers (roughly $850 billion). But common sense does […]

The World’s Central Banks Are Frozen with Fear

mises.org / Ryan McMaken / May 16, 2017

2016 was supposed to be the year that the Federal Reserve “normalized” its policies. As much as two years ago — after years of a near-zero target rate — the Fed was swearing that it would begin to raise rates back to “normal” levels and cut […]

Losing Faith? Dollar Index Dive Erases Post-Election Gains

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 16, 2017 10:20 AM

The Dollar Index is now down 5 days in a row. While economic data has been disappointing (potentially leaving a less hawkish Fed – though we doubt it), it appears Trump turmoil is more to blame as dollar-holders lose faith in dollar assets…

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Goldman Turns Less Confident On June, September Rate Hikes

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / May 16, 2017 9:07 AM

Following disappointing CPI prints for two months in a row, even such stalwart believers in the Fed’s tightening cycle as Goldman Sachs (recall Hatzius warned recently that the Fed may need to “shock” markets to tighten monetary conditions in light of the S&P relentless […]