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Political Focus Shifting in Europe

marctomarket.com / by  / Oct 12, 2017

There was a huge sigh of relief among investors when it became clear that the populist-nationalist wave that ostensibly led to Brexit and Trump’s election was not going to sweep through Europe. The euro gapped higher on April 24, and it has not looked back.  We have suggested that with the outcome of the German election, European politics shift from tailwind to headwind.

Spain’s most serious constitutional crisis in 40 years appears to have climaxed this week.  The business and political elite came together to resist the secessionist pull of Catalonia. Other European countries, including Germany and France, as well as the EU,  defended the territorial integrity of Spain.   Although the crisis may linger into next week, Spain’s assets began recouping some of their recent underperformance.

The political focus is already shifting within the eurozone.  In Italy, the Chamber of Deputies finished today its third vote on the electoral reform.  The bill now goes to the Senate, which is unlikely to take it up for several weeks.  Next year’s budget is a more pressing issue.  Still, the Senate is likely to approve the bill before the end of the year.  While this makes possible an election at the end of Q1, we suspect it will be a Q2 event.

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