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The Case For Brexit

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 05/24/2016 04:00 

With the market still strongly disagreeing with the polls over how BREMAIN is a done deal…

***

TrueSinews’ Sean Corrigan explains why in his contrite “case for Brexit”…

‘Dear True Sinews, what are your thoughts on Brexit? Roger Bootle wrote a piece in the Telegraph yesterday suggesting that just because everyone is saying one thing, it doesn’t necessarily follow they are right Currently, I sit firmly on the fence getting splinters! Neither side is convincing me either way.’

So wrote a friend the other day. What follows is my answer to his question.

Funnily enough, my first response to the letter to the Times, that highly-orchestrated, Orwellian protestation of orthodoxy, was to tweet about the infamous 364 economists who wrote decrying Howe’s 1981 budget under Thatcher. Ditto the IMF’s woeful track record or the Queen’s famous ‘How did no-one see it coming?’ question in 2008/9.

Consensus is never a determinant of truth and even, the cynic might say, is often proof of the opposite! Humanity has not moved from grubbing a living rooting for mammoth carrion to where it is today by being over respectful of consensus. In fact, the very nature of entrepreneurialism is to challenge consensus while mainstream economists are still denying the possibility that anyone could possibly have left a £10 note lying on the pavement!

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World War III Is Near and America Remains In Utter Bliss

thecommonsenseshow.com / By Dave Hodges / May 24th, 2016

America stands of the precipice of being dismantled from within and from a war that is racing toward our country like an out of control freight train.

This article has assembled a few current events, all happening within the month of May, in order to demonstrate how near America is to total destruction brought about by WW III. The average person remains fixated on the election and clueless to the outside world.

It is true that the Independent Media and Donald Trump have awakened millions of Americans, but not to the level that is needed to understand the gravity of the events listed below.

Recent Military Movements In America

The following footage was taken in Uvalde, Texas, on May 21st. A cursory examination of the cargo show a massive amount of tanks. These movements are consistent with war preparation.

This is but one of several videos, only days old, that serve to point out that armed conflict is coming. However, the armed conflict is not about protecting the people of the United States. Below is a very telling address that Kerry gave to young US military officers.

US Soldiers Will Serve the UN As America Is Dismantled

John Kerryaddressed graduates from Northeastern University on Friday at a commencement speech and preached his New World Order agenda, telling the young people to prepare for a “borderless world.”

And when a soldier serves in a borderless world, they serve in a borderless military that will confiscate American guns in order to take away that last line of defense with regard to protecting the United States.

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The War on Cash Is a War on Your Freedom to Opt Out

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / MONDAY, MAY 23, 2016

Cash is a proxy for the freedom to maintain some privacy in an era of Big Brother repression, surveillance and the suppression of dissent.
I’ve covered the war on cash i.e. the proposed elimination of cash, a number of times, for example, The War On Cash: Officially Sanctioned Theft (June 13, 2015)
Our first question should be: just how big a share of our financial universe is cash? The answer is: vanishingly small. Look at this chart of total credit in the U.S. economy–$63 trillion–and total cash: $1.45 trillion. Cash is the thin red line at the bottom of the chart–it barely registers.
***
Meanwhile, total household/non-profit-sector financial assets total $70.3 trillion (net $55.8 trillion minus liabilities of $14.5 trillion).
Total money (currency in circulation and demand deposits) is over $10 trillion.
If cash is such a small share of money and assets, why are governments so keen to ban cash?
The official answer is to limit money-laundering by drug traffickers and criminals. But laundering money through official banking channels is not that difficult, so cash is not necessary for laundering.
Another official reason is tax evasion. But tax evasion is now so easy, once again cash is not required: The World’s Favorite New Tax Haven Is the United StatesMoving money out of the usual offshore secrecy havens and into the U.S. is a brisk new business.

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How Will America Trade With WORTHLESS DOLLARS & NO GOLD? — Bill Holter

SGTreport.comPublished on May 23, 2016

Bill Holter from JS Mineset is back to help us document the collapse for the fourth week of May, 2016. And as physical gold and silver moves East and intothe strong hands of more than a billion Chinese, and as foreign banks publicly settle global trade in the Yuan, Bill reminds us that “Every step forward by China, is one or two steps backward for the US and the Dollar, that’s what’s happening. For instance, if the Yuan is backed by gold, then why would someone accept the Dollar in lieu of the Yuan if the Dollar’s not backed by anything.” The build out of the infrastructure for the world to move completely away from the Dollar is almost complete. You have been warned.

Who Is Right Between Oil And Other Commodities: One Hedge Fund’s Opinion

zerohedge.com / From Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital / 05/23/2016 23:22

So far in May, base metals and Oil decoupled markedly (chart attached below). While the Oil price kept rising and moved closer to 50$, base metals fell off a cliff and descended below March lows.

We believe that Oil is the errant outlier, helped by deep but temporary supply outages in Canada and Nigeria and all-time record speculative flows, and is more likely to catch down to other commodities going forward rather than the other way round. We look at Oil gyrations as short-term heavy volatility, within a long-term downward trend.

  • Supply disruptions in Canada and Nigeria held back 2mn b/d. Temporarily.
  • Speculation runs at record levels: NYMEX Crude Oil Non-Commercial Long Contracts at all-time highs (chart below)

On the other hand, weakness in commodities is consistent with fundamentals:

  • Weak aggregate demand (likely to stay shallow in the foreseeable future) vis-a-vis chronic global over-supply,
  • China inability to keep expanding credit at current pace and keep creating an illusion of demand the world over (1trn$ or 10% of GDP per quarter is unsustainable),
  • A stronger US Dollar, and the unease of the FED to talk it down, as current account deficit shrinks and only small hikes are priced in

As such, at present, we find the price action so far in May to come in confirmation of our underlying thesis, thus expect more weakness in commodities from here, and Oil to eventually give in.

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PUBLIC WORRIED: A Staggering $100 Billion Has Flowed Out Of Stocks So Far This Year

kingworldnews.com / May 23, 2016

With continued uncertainty in global markets, two of the greats weighed in with their thoughts on what to expect next as nearly $100 billion has flowed out of the U.S. stock market so far this year.

From Art Cashin:  On The Mortality Of Bull Markets – One of the key commentaries going around Wall Street these days begins with “Bulls markets don’t die of old age….” That is then followed by the speaker’s choice of bull market mortality, e.g. euphoria, etc.

I wonder if bull markets might die of some other cause, like perhaps starvation. My friend and fellow trading veteran, Jim Brown over at Option Investors cites Bank of America in noting that “year to date equity outflows were approaching $100 billion“. Such outflows had been more than offset by corporate buybacks. Those have now slowed dramatically. Outflows should be watched carefully.

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Banks must defend Libor lawsuits after judges warn of impact

gata.org / By Bob Van Voris / Monday, May 23, 2016

Sixteen of the world’s largest banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., must face antitrust lawsuits accusing them of hurting investors who bought securities tied to Libor by rigging an interest-rate benchmark, a ruling that an appeals court warned could devastate them.

The appellate judges reversed a lower-court ruling on one issue — whether the investors had adequately claimed in their complaints to have been harmed — while sending the cases back for the judge to consider another issue: whether the plaintiffs are the proper parties to sue, in part because their claims, if successful, provide for triple damages that could overwhelm the banks.

“Requiring the banks to pay treble damages to every plaintiff who ended up on the wrong side of an independent Libor‐denominated derivative swap would, if appellants’ allegations were proved at trial, not only bankrupt 16 of the world’s most important financial institutions, but also vastly extend the potential scope of antitrust liability in myriad markets where derivative instruments have proliferated,” the U.S. Court of Appeals in New York said in the ruling.

Bank of America Corp., HSBC Holdings Plc, Barclays Plc, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Royal Bank of Canada, and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc are also among the banks sued in Manhattan. …

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The Fed’s Loss Of Credibility Is Real: This Is What It Looks Like

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 05/23/2016 22:15

Asset markets aren’t prepared for a hawkish Fed. As Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow notes Fed speakers have even taken to the Sunday talk shows to beat the rate-rise drum as economics is morphing into punditry. They’re going to raise rates because they can, are independent, apolitical and can’t be bullied by foreigners. The numbers notwithstanding…

Hallelujah

Perhaps we’ll know more when Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Friday in the more rarefied surroundings of Radcliffe Yard. For all the talk, one thing is true: asset markets aren’t priced for a FOMC ready to raise rates and looking to do more.

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Gold Takes a Breather … Is this the Buying Opportunity Investors Are Looking For?

news.goldseek.com / By Frank Holmes / Tuesday, 24 May 2016

First it was Stan Druckenmiller, now it’s George Soros. Following billionaire former hedge fund manager Druckenmiller’s announcement that gold was his family office fund’s largest currency allocation, we learned last week that his old boss, billionaire investor George Soros, purchased a $264 million stake in Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer, after liquidating $3.5 billion in U.S.-listed stocks. Additionally, he disclosed owning call options on a gold ETF.

Soros’ investment can be held up as further proof that sentiment toward gold has decidedly shifted positive, following the challenging last three years.

London-based precious metals consultancy Metals Focus just released its Gold Focus 2016 report in which the group calls an end to the gold bear market that began in late 2011, after the metal hit its all-time high of $1,900 per ounce. “We are optimistic about gold over the rest of this year and our projections see it peaking at $1,350 in the fourth quarter,” the group writes. Global negative interest rate policy fears have reawakened investors’ confidence in gold as a reliable currency and store of value.

The group adds: “In the near term, there may well be some liquidations of tactical positions.” This is to be expected, especially around the start of summer, based on historical precedent

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More than one-in-five working age Millennials live at home: California has two of the top four metro areas with Millennials living at home

doctorhousingbubble.com / Dr. Housing Bubble / May 23rd, 2016

The kids are not moving out.  The high cost of housing is having a big impact on the Millennial generation.  In high cost areas you are seeing homes being sold to investors (including foreign buyers) and those that do buy as owner occupied tend to be a lot older than previous first time buyers.  Even from family and friends it is interesting to see a few homes sold in their varied neighborhoods only to be turned into rentals immediately – these were very standard single family homes in neighborhoods where rentals were rare (not anymore).  Yet another continuing trend is the number of working age Millennials living at home with mom and dad.  Mom and dad are your typical Taco Tuesday baby boomers and are “shocked” that their kids can’t afford to rent let alone buy a home.  Given current prices Millennials are not going to be buying in many high priced markets for years to come.

California leads the way

In total, 2.3 million adult “kids” live at home with their parents in California.  Across the U.S. the total is roughly 10 million.  So California as a percentage has more Millennials living at home than the nation overall.

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The CME Admits Futures Trading Was Rigged Under Old System

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 05/23/2016 22:02 

Ask any trader what they believe to be the hallmark feature of any “rigged market” and the most frequent response(in addition to flagrant crime of the type supposedly demonstrated every day by Deutsche Bank and which should not exist in a regulated market) will be an institutionally bifurcated and legitimized playing field, one in which those who can afford faster, bigger, more effective data pipes, collocated servers and response times – and thus riskless trades – outperform everyone else who may or may not know that the market is legally rigged against them.

Think of it as baseball game for those who take steroids vs a ‘roid free game, only here the steroids are perfectly legal for those who can afford them. Or like a casino where the house, or in this case the HFTs, always win.

However, as it turned out, the vast majority of the public had no idea that a small subset of the market was juicing, despite our constant reports on the topic since 2009, until the arrival of Michael Lewis’ book Flash Boys, which explained the secret sauce that made all those HFT prop shops into unbeatable “trading titans“: frontrunning.

That’s really all one had to know about the mystical inner working of the modern market. All Reg NMS did was legitimize and legalize frontrunning at a massive scale for those who could afford (and hide) it, all the while the technology race ran in the background making it increasingly more expensive to stay at the top: fiber optics, microwaves, lasers, FPGAs, PCI-Express and so on.

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Podcast: Hard Times For Obsolete Entities

dollarcollapse.com / BY JOHN RUBINO / MAY 23, 2016 

Watch Brexit, the Movie, to understand why Britain might just leave the EU — and why other members should leave as well. Meanwhile, the Saudis are apparently out of money, the bricks and mortar retailers are out of customers and Wall Street bankers are looking at mass unemployment. Brutal times for obsolete institutions!

PLEASE CLICK HERE TO LISTEN

FIRST SOROS… NOW JIM ROGERS PREDICTS TRILLION-DOLLAR ‘BIBLICAL’ CRASH

dollarvigilante.com / JEFF BERWICK / MAY 24, 2016 

Last year, we were the first financial site to explain how the Shemitah seven-year cycle would have an important and disastrous effect on the markets. The Shemitah ended in the third quarter of last year and just as we predicted, it was the worst quarter in worldwide stock markets since the last Shemitah in 2008.

Since then we have been the leader in explaining further Shemitah trends embedded in the once-every-49-year, Jubilee Year.  The Jubilee Year ends on October 2nd of this year, and we expect even worse events to occur as October approaches.

Now, famous investor, Jim Rogers, has just released a new warning saying the same. He is even using biblical references to warn of a financial tsunami that could take place either this year or next.  He has just said, “A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans.”

Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in the early 1970s. The fund generated returns of 4,200 percent over 10 years and made fortunes for both men.  Soros and Rogers, having worked together for so long, probably both have access to information the regular person doesn’t. Soros recently was in the news for shorting the stock market and making gold his largest held asset and predicting an impending crisis.

Now, just this week, Jim Rogers has said the same and was quite outspoken about how it was written in the Bible.  He referred to a biblical quote from the Book of Joshua: “You are under a curse now. You will always be servants. You will be woodcutters and water carriers for the house of my God.”

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Wheelbarrow Economics

zerohedge.com / by Jeff Thomas / 05/23/2016 21:50

In 2014, we published an article entitled “Watch the Movie Before It Is Filmed.” In that article, I described the situation in Venezuela at that time. The effects of fifteen years of collectivism were threatening to collapse the economy. The government was reacting by printing bolivares (Venezuelan currency) on a large scale—a knee-jerk solution that has been utilized by over twenty other countries in the last century—always with the same outcome: hyperinflation, resulting in economic collapse.

At the time, I recommended to readers that they “watch the movie” as it was being played out in Venezuela, as it would offer them insight into what was on the way in their own country, should they reside in Europe or North America.

The pattern followed by Venezuela is roughly the same as for the other jurisdictions; Venezuela is just a bit more advanced in the progression. Therefore, what we are observing in Venezuela is likely to be played out in other countries that have made the same mistake of taking on more debt than they can ever pay back.

As predicted, Venezuela is now well along with regard to hyperinflation.

The traditional definition of “inflation” is “the increase of the amount of money in circulation.” Today, we think of inflation as an increase in the cost of goods, but this is merely a predictable by-product of inflation. If the amount of money increases, the cost of goods will always rise to meet it. Therefore, the issuance of large amounts of paper money has only a very temporary positive effect. Ultimately, it creates an increase in the price of goods and services, which, in turn, calls for further printing.

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Manufacturing Recession Goes Global as Demand Withers

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / May 24, 2016

The “strong dollar” has been blamed for the manufacturing doldrums in the US that started over a year ago. But then manufacturing in other countries should boom, or at least not decline, but that’s not the case. Manufacturing is sick and weakening in just about every major economy!

References to 2009 and the Global Financial Crisis keep popping up in the latest spate of reports because that’s how bad it has gotten.

US manufacturing gets ugly.

On Monday, Markit reported that its US Manufacturing PMI, which tracks the overall health of the manufacturing sector via surveys sent to purchasing managers, dropped to 50.5 (below 50 = contraction) in May, the weakest reading since October 2009.

Production actually declined for the first time since September 2009, “the height of the Global Financial Crisis.” Companies blamed “reduced foreign demand” as new export orders fell for the second month in a row. And they blamed the “uncertainty around the general economic outlook” which had caused their customers “to delay spending decisions,” which then triggered production cuts.

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23/5/16: Greek Debt Sustainability and IMF’s Pipe Dreams

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Constantin Gurdgiev / Tuesday, May 24, 2016

IMF outlined its position on Greek debt sustainability, once again stressing the fact – known to everyone with an ounce of brain left untouched by Eurohopium injections from Brussels and Frankfurt : Greek debt is currently unsustainable.

Here are some details of the IMF’s latest encounter with reality:

Firstly, per IMF: Greek “debt was deemed sustainable, but not with high probability, when the first program was adopted in May 2010. Public debt was projected to surge from 115 percent of GDP to a peak of 150 percent of GDP, primarily because the expected internal devaluation implied declining nominal GDP while fiscal deficits were expected to add to the debt burden, but also because of the decision to forgo a private sector debt restructuring (PSI).”

Several things to note here. The extent of internal devaluation required for Greece is a function of several aspects of Euro area policies, most notably, lack of functional independent currency that can absorb – via normal devaluation – some of the shocks; lack of will on behalf of the EU to restructure official debt owed by Greece to EFSF/ESM pair of European institutions and to the ECB; and effective capture of virtually all Greek ‘assistance’ funds within the banking sector and external financing sector, with zero trickle down from these sectors funding to the real economy. In other words, there were plenty of sources for Greek debt non-sustainability arising from EU construct and policies.

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“Pre-Crime” Arrives In Chicago – Big Data Tells Cops Who’s Next To Be Shot

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 05/23/2016 21:00

In Chicago, where homicides are out of control and estimated to top 550 in 2016 (the most since 2012), police are so desperate to correct the problem that they are throwing good old fashioned police work to the wind, and turning to ‘Minority Report’-esque algorithms to do the work for them.

***

The Chicago PD is using an algorithm in order to generate a list of people from police databases in order to figure out who to “target.” Each individual on the list is provided a score based on arrests, shootings, affiliations with gangs, and other variables. The intent of the list is to predict who is next to be shot, or shoot someone, and once the list is updated, authorities then go visit individuals with the highest scores at their home. The individuals are then told that they’re on the list, and that they are being monitored the NYT reports.

In this city’s urgent push to rein in gun and gang violence, the Police Department is keeping a list. Derived from a computer algorithm that assigns scores based on arrests, shootings, affiliations with gang members and other variables, the list aims to predict who is most likely to be shot soon or to shoot someone.

The police have been using the list, in part, to choose individuals for visits, known as “custom notifications.” Over the past three years, police officers, social workers and community leaders have gone to the homes of more than 1,300 people with high numbers on the list. Mr. Johnson, the police superintendent, says that officials this year are stepping up those visits, with at least 1,000 more people.

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Grim Election Map for Trump? Fox Analyst vs. RCP vs. Mish

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 23, 2016

Juan Williams, political analyst for Fox News Channel says Electoral Map Looks Grim for Trump.

I believe the map looks grim for Hillary.

Clearly one of us is wrong, so let’s compare maps and analysis.

Juan Williams

“To win the 270 votes needed to claim victory in the electoral college, Trump will have to keep every single state won by Romney — including Arizona and Georgia — and find 64 more electoral votes somewhere.

The question is where? If Trump holds all the Romney states and carries Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, he still loses.

“Every preliminary electoral-map forecast this spring paints a bleak picture for Donald Trump in his effort to win the presidency against Hillary Clinton,” Dan Balz recently wrote in the Washington Post.

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CENTCOM Commander Secret Meeting Will Escalate The US Agenda In The Middle East – Episode 978b

X22ReportPublished on May 23, 2016

South Africa’s Standard Bank Victim Of “Perfectly Coordinated Attack” In Japanese ATM Scam

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 05/23/2016 20:14

South Africa’s Standard Bank has confirmed that it is the latest bank to be hacked into, admitting that it had credit card data stolen and used in an elaborate scheme carried out in Japan.

***

On May 15th, between 5am and 8am, more than 100 people withdrew $13 million from 1400 ATMs across Japan in less than three hours. The coordinated heist involved forged credit cards, and data stolen from South Africa’s Standard Bank. As The BBC reports,

The withdrawals targeted 7-Eleven cash machines, which unlike most in Japan accept foreign cards.

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Dollar Regains Momentum, Sterling Resists

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / May 24, 2016

The US dollar lost momentum yesterday but has regained it today.  The euro has been pushed through last week’s lows near $1.1180.  The next immediate target is  $1.1145, which corresponds to the lower Bollinger Band today, though the intraday technical readings suggest some modest upticks are likely first.  The $1.1200-$1.1220 area may cap upticks.
The greenback held above JPY109 and bounced to recoup 38.2% of its decline since the pre-weekend high near JPY110.60.  A move above this retracement (~JPY109.70) may yield minor gains and still struggle to sustain gains above JPY110.
The dollar-bloc currencies have been led lower by the Australian dollar.  When the US dollar momentum faltered yesterday, the Australian dollar resurfaced above $0.7200.  Unable to get above $0.7230 today, RBA Governor Stevens comments helped push it new lows since early March (~$0.7155).  Stevens noted that the Australian dollar, which has been falling since late-April, was moving in the right direction.  His observation that inflation was low and below target encourages speculation of an additional rate cut in the coming months.
Sterling is recouping nearly everything it lost in the past two sessions and is back knocking on last week’s high above $1.46.  It appears to have been helped by a poll out late yesterday that found that not only are the undecideds in the UK referendum breaking toward the remain camp but that some of those that had favored leaving and reversing.

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Venezuela: Precursor to the World – Andy Hoffman

The Daily Coin.orgPublished on May 23, 2016

TSA Head Of Security Fired (After $90,000 Bonus)

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 05/23/2016 19:20

Having been paid $90,000 in bonuses over the last 13 months, Kelly Hoggan – the head of security for TSA – has been fired…

Whether he was responsible for the chaos that has led to 1000s of missed flights (or just following orders to force government deeper into the pre-check registrations) is unclear but for now we have a first scapegoat under the bus.

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May 2016: Will Deutsche Bank Survive This Wave Of Trouble Or Will It Become The Next Lehman Brothers?

theeconomiccollapseblog.com / By Michael Snyder on May 23rd, 2016

If you have been waiting for “the next Lehman Brothers moment” which will cause the global financial system to descend into a state of mass panic, you might want to keep a close eye on German banking giant Deutsche Bank.  It is approximately three times larger than Lehman Brothers was, and if the most important bank in the strongest economy in Europe were to implode, it would instantly send shockwaves rippling across the entire planet.  Those that follow my work regularly know that I started sounding the alarm about Deutsche Bank beginning last September.  Since that time, the bad news from Deutsche Bank has not stopped pouring in.  They announced a loss of 6.8 billion euros for 2015, and they have been plagued by scandal after scandal.  In recent months they have gotten into trouble for trying to rig precious metal prices, for committing “equity trading fraud” and for their dealings in mortgage-backed securities.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

A month after admitting to rigging precious metals markets, Deutsche Bank has been hit with a double-whammy of more alleged fraudulent behavior today and the stock is sliding. First, Reuters reports that the bank took a charge of 450 million euros for “equity trading fraud,” and then Bloomberg reports that The SEC is looking into Deutsche’s post-crisis mortgage positions.

This is a bank that is steadily bleeding money, and so the last thing that it needs is for government agencies to be putting immense pressure on it.  Unfortunately for Deutsche Bank, the SEC seems determined to kick it while it is down

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Obama Lifts Arms Embargo to the “Police State” of Vietnam

libertyblitzkrieg.com / Michael Krieger / May 23, 2016

So why would the State Department magically upgrade Malaysia? Well, because of a tiny provision in the fast track “Trade Promotion Authority” deal that Congress recently passed. It noted that fast track authority would not apply to trade deals involving countries that were categorized as “tier 3″ by the State Department. In other words, this should have given the US tremendous leverage to push Malaysia to really tackle the problem. Instead, because it appears that the administration is so focused on getting the TPP officially finished and ratified, it got the State Department to just magically upgrade Malaysia, and effectively spit on the graves of those murdered migrant workers.

– From the post: U.S. State Department Upgrades Serial Human Rights Abuser Malaysia to Include it in the TPP

Don’t let anyone tell you Barack Obama’s a lame duck. Our CEO of war was recently spotted in Southeast Asia spreading around some of that famous peace and democracy.

Vice News reports:

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