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Are The Miners On The Verge Of A Correction Or About To Go Parabolic? / By Avi Gilburt / 4 May 2016

First published Sun May 1 for members:  I never suggest trading on emotion, yet the “fears” I expressed last week may be developing as the reality on the ground.  With the continued strength this past week seen in the miners, one has to question whether the more immediately bullish “green count” is what is in play, with us heading directly to the 40 region without any further 2nd wave retracements.

While I still would prefer to see an appropriate wave ii correction take hold, the market does not care about what I “prefer,” so we have to follow the market’s lead rather than fight it.  Remember, we don’t control the market, and despite what most believe, no one does.  But, the market does provide clues that we need to follow, even if it does not meet with our ideal expectations.

Last week, we were looking for a signal that a deeper correction would be seen, or if we were heading into our resistance box:

in order for me to believe the “correction” has begun in GDX, and the overhead resistance will not be struck, we will need to break down below 22.20 to make it less likely that this drop is a 4th wave in the last 5 wave structure higher.  Moreover, any strong break out over 26 in GDX places me in the green count, and in the heart of wave 3 of iii, and on our way over 40.

This past week, the GDX spiked down to the 22.19 level during premarket action (with 22.37 as the low struck during trading hours), and reversed strongly to begin this current rally, with us now pushing up against the 26 region resistance. Clearly, support has held, and we saw upside follow through into our target/resistance box.  So far, the market is respecting our Fibonacci Pinball levels to the penny.



I’ve accepted that there are evil forces in this world that will do what they can to destroy you and your family in order to build globalism. From the Brussels bombings to the Panama Papers to the ongoing Syrian massacres and turmoil in the Middle East and the refugee crises, it is all planned out.

People have a hard time with that insight. It’s very difficult to live with the idea that the top controllers of Western society are actively trying to kill you or at least destroy the society you live in.

I’m not surprised for instance that  troops continue to build up in the Middle East and now there are reports that China will send its military to help Syria. We’ve predicted this escalation in previous articles. And we fully expect a situation that spirals into a kind of World War III.

Of course war is not the only kind of chaos psychopathic elites want to inflict. Economic jolts continue to rock the West and particularly the US. Just yesterday, US stocks plunged to a three-week low . Stock analysts had suggested that energy stocks along with commodity-oriented stocks would firm as the economy improved.  The idea is that the US is fighting its way out of a recession. But it’s not a recession. It’s a depression. And it’s lasted since 2008.


The Hire That Could Be The Difference Between A Fed Rate Hike And BoJ Helicopter Money / by Tyler Durden / 05/03/2016 20:25

Back in March, Japan’s Global Pension Investment Fund appointed Norihiro Takahashi as its new president. Few paid much attention to it, but it may very well end up being one of the most significant events that occurred as we look back in twelve to eighteen months.

The GPIF manages roughly $1.2 trillion in assets, with over 60% currently allocated domestically between equity and fixed income. Given the state of the stock market and the negative interest rate policy in Japan, it would make sense that an incoming president would take a hard look at the current asset mix policy and adjust it to best suit the needs of its members, something outgoing president Takahiro Mitani has been vocal about in recent years.

Recall that back in 2014 under pressure from Prime Minister Abe to move the fund into riskier assets, Mr. Mitani reluctantly rebalanced its portfolio away from domestic bonds, and into domestic equities, something that clearly did not make him happy. “Our sole objective is not to invest so that the Japanese economy will be better; our job is to invest with the people’s money in a safe and efficient manner so we can protect and manage their funds” the Financial Times quoted him as saying.


How A Collapse In South America Could Trigger Martial Law In The U.S. / Brandon Smith / Wednesday, 04 May 2016 02:36

If an economic system collapses in the woods and no one is paying attention, are there any consequences outside the woods? Well, yes, of course. As with most situations financial and global, however, consequences are not usually taken very seriously until they have spawned a vast bog of sewage we all have to then swim through.

The issue is and always will be “interdependency,” and the dissolution of sovereign borders. Take a close look at the European Union, for example.

You have a large network of fiscally interdependent nations struggling to maintain a sense of principled identity and heritage while participating in the delusion of multiculturalism. You have a system in which these nations are admonished or even punished for attempting to become self-reliant. You have a system which encourages a Cloward-Piven-style forced integration of incompatible cultures. You have unmanageable debt. You have a welfare addicted socialist population plagued by naive assumptions of entitlement. And on top of it all, you have a political structure dominated by cultural Marxists who would like nothing better than to see the whole of the old world go down in a blazing inferno.

This EU dynamic can only end in one of two ways — the complete dismantling of the supranational body and a return to sovereignty, or, a socio-economic crisis followed by even more centralization and the end of all remnants of sovereignty. Either way, the consequences will not be pretty.


Trump Wins – Cruz Ends his Bid for President / by Martin Armstrong / May 3, 2016

On Tuesday, Ted Cruz ended his campaign. His loss in Indiana extinguishing any chance of denying Mr. Trump the nomination. Trump easily took Indiana demonstrating that the people are simply angry at those in Washington. Trump said: “We’re going after Hillary Clinton.”  Our models have shown that the Republicans should win. Only one of our four models puts its neck and neck. As we move closer to November, the economy is likely to get worse. We have the BREXIT vote as well come June. Between now and November is a lifetime in politics. Of course, he may wish Hillary wins. The danger if Trump wins will be that the “establishment” will blame him for their 50 years of mismanagement.


Did The Bank Of Japan Just Step In To Sell Yen? / by Tyler Durden / 05/03/2016 17:45 -0400

Just another central bank intervention in what is now a daily occurrence?

Standard 75 pip vertical ramp after NY hours…and before Japan opens:


Commodities – Will the Rally Continue? / Pater Tenebrarum / May 3, 2016

Pros and Cons

The recent rally in commodity prices has surprised many market participants and has greatly supported the stock market’s rebound. It has also made bulls out of a number of former stock market bears, as one of its side effects was to cause an improvement in market internals. But does the rally actually make sense?


As always, there are arguments both for and against the idea. We will take a look at several of them below.

The Secular Trend

First of all, it is widely held that the “commodity super-cycle” as it used to be called (i.e., the secular bull market that started in 1998) is definitely over. One could well say that there is a near 100% consensus on this question. After all, the CRB Index has declined to a 43 year low, i.e.,  to levels last seen in the 1970s.

Anyone who has watched commodities over recent years must surely wonder how this is even possible. For instance, crude oil recently bottomed at around $28, or 180% above its low of 1998. Gold bottomed at around $1,050 – more than 300% above its 1999 low. As far as we know, the only major commodity that has come anywhere near its lows of 18 years ago was natural gas.


Michael Pento-Market Losing Faith in Value of the Dollar

Greg HunterPublished on May 3, 2016

Money manager Michael says inflation has nowhere to go but up. Pento explains, “We have printed enough for this to go hyperbolic. We have plenty of excess reserves. We have already hit our core (Fed) inflation target. We are already up 2.2% year over year. If you want to be honest, we already have the condition much like the 1970’s of stagflation. . . . The Federal Reserve promised us we were on the road to recovery. They said we would be growing at 3% and we are growing at 0%. They said they could raise interest rates and normalize the Fed Funds Rate, and they can’t do it. The dollar index went up to 100 on the belief that this was going to be the case, and it is absolutely not true. That’s how the market is losing faith in the value of the dollar. We are in a condition of stagflation, make no mistake about it.”

Are we also in a recession too? Pento says, “They can do this indefinitely until inflation becomes intractable. In the United States, we are running up on 90 months of 0% interest rates, and what do we have for that? Fourth quarter GDP was 1.4%, and that was bad enough, but first quarter has a zero handle. It was 0.5%. That’s what we get for blowing up the Fed’s balance sheet to $4.5 trillion? That’s what we get for manipulating bond yields down to 0% for 90 months? We are virtually in a recession. If we are not in a recession, we are in a flat line or dead line economy, and it’s zero.

“I Don’t Know How To Explain It” – Confused Clinton Can’t Explain Own Comments To Coal-Miner / by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2016 19:30

When politicians say things, many people just ignore them and move on. However, as Hillary Clinton recently found out, words do have meaning, and some people don’t take kindly to loose rhetoric when it comes to how they provide for their families.

On the campaign trail, Hillary Clinton said with a smile “We’re going to put a lot of coal miners, and coal companies out of business.


The US Median Income Is Falling / Ryan McMaken / May 3, 2016

Last weekend, John Crudele at the New York Post noticed, in an article titled “Americans haven’t gotten a raise in 16 years”  that in spite of the current administration’s many claims of economic prosperity, the voters don’t seem particularly pleased:

Why aren’t Americans happier?

One of those pundits made me chuckle Tuesday night when he was talking about Trump’s primaries victories in another five states. He suggested that Americans were somehow being brainwashed by the media into thinking the economy was really bad when in fact it was good.

Then, on Thursday, the Commerce Department showed just how good the economy wasn’t. It announced that the Gross Domestic Product grew by an annual rate of just 0.5% in the first three months of 2016.

But that didn’t stop the media from trying to explain away the disappointment.

Here’s a graph of GDP growth mentioned, by the way (hint: growth is weak):



Much has already been said on how unbelievably wasteful the F-35 program really is, but the hits just keep on coming. This Swiss army knife plane has cost the American taxpayer well over a trillion dollars over the years, and what does the military have to show for it? A bug ridden aircraft with poor maneuverability that in many cases, can’t even fly.

During a recent flight test at the Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho, the F-35 proved little in the way of combat and deployment capabilities. If anything, the fighter jets proved that they’re capable of hugging the ground and little else. According to J. Michael Gilmore, the Pentagon’s chief weapon’s tester:


It’s About To Get Crazy Again – North Dakota Official Exalts Oil Boom “Is Coming Back With A Rush” / by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2016 18:27

China’s military is out with a new recruiting video, although it isn’t what some may envision. The People’s Liberation Army (incidentally the world’s largest military force, with a strength of approximately 2,285,000 personnel, or 0.18% of China’s population) released an online recruiting video, which however was anything but your average, army stock filler with a beating bass line or a cherubic choir in the background: it was just the testament to demonstrate China’s militant yet “cultured uniqueness” as it sets off to dominates the world. In other words: a “culturally unique” rap video.

Here is Quartz‘ translation of the clip, which begins with an narrator voiceover of a soldier getting dressed.

There is always a mission on your mind.
There is always an enemy in your view

There is always responsibility on your shoulders

There is always passion in your heart

War could erupt any time

Are you ready?


SHADOWRING : The Power Behind The Throne — Chris Emery, Published on May 3, 2016

Free Mind Films Producer Chris Emery joins me to discuss SHADOWRING, a new film that shine light on the secret powers behind the throne. The film was written by our friend and author James Perloff, author of Truth is a Lonely Warrior, and its narrated by Kevin Sorbo. This film reveals the true globalist powers – from the Rockefellers CFR to the Rothschilds – who pick CIA Directors, Treasury Secretaries and Presidents. This is the power behind the throne. Share this film with anyone you want to wake up.

BREAKING: Huge Numbers of Dead and Wounded as Terrorists Rain Missiles down on Aleppo / BY VANESSA BEELEY / MAY 3, 2016

Silvia Cattori
Arret sur Info

The missiles raining down upon Aleppo since dawn on the 3rd May 2016 are being launched by the terrorist groups our media like to call “revolutionaries”.

“Today, the deluge of bombs striking Aleppo have targeted the Obstetric hospital. Huge numbers of dead and wounded.” ~ Dr Nabil Antaki, 3pm

“A massive explosion.  The battles have not stopped. More than 100 mortars since this morning.  The Aleppo students should have sat end of year exams today.  There is firing from all sides.

Ambulance sirens can be heard everywhere.  This is nothing new, but today its horrible! ” ~ Father Georges Sabe, 12.30pm


Dollar Doldrums To Continue As “Fantasy World Of Rate Normalization” Unwinds / by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2016 19:00

Despite today’s jump in the USD index, the sharp dollar selloff trend remains even as U.S. rates have climbed and the commodity rally pauses. It’s logical to query if there is an end in sight for the rout.The short answer, according to Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore, is no. The dollar may be due a bounce, but that would likely mark a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal.

Today was the Bloomberg Dollar Index’s best day since Nov 2015…


Cruz Quits / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 3, 2016

It’s now officially over: Cruz quits and hands victory to Trump.

“Ted Cruz suspended his campaign for the White House on Tuesday night, all but confirming Donald Trump as the Republican nominee and almost certainly setting up a general election that will see the New York tycoon face off against Hillary Clinton.”

The Chicago Tribune offers this quote:

“I’ve said I would continue on as long as there was a viable path to victory; tonight I’m sorry to say it appears that path has been foreclosed,” Cruz told a somber crowd in Indianapolis.

Bring on Hillary.


Another Deadlocked Election Coming Up In Spain? / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 3, 2016

After six months of failed coalition attempts, Spain’s King Felipe dissolved parliament and announced new elections.

I reported on this last week, but the official document dissolving parliament was signed today. New elections are on June 26.

Will the results be any different?

There are 350 seats in Spain’s parliament. Courtesy of the BBC, the 2015 election went like this (blue highlights mine).


‘Kill! Kill! Kill! – How China Recruits For Its Massively Underpaid Army / by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2016 18:27

China’s military is out with a new recruiting video, although it isn’t what some may envision. The People’s Liberation Army (incidentally the world’s largest military force, with a strength of approximately 2,285,000 personnel, or 0.18% of China’s population) released an online recruiting video, which however was anything but your average, army stock filler with a beating bass line or a cherubic choir in the background: it was just the testament to demonstrate China’s militant yet “cultured uniqueness” as it sets off to dominates the world. In other words: a “culturally unique” rap video.

Here is Quartz‘ translation of the clip, which begins with an narrator voiceover of a soldier getting dressed.

There is always a mission on your mind.

There is always an enemy in your view

There is always responsibility on your shoulders

There is always passion in your heart

War could erupt any time

Are you ready?


Asset Forfeiture and the Income Tax / Tate Fegley / May 3, 2016

While you are likely still recovering from Tax Day, don’t be lulled into thinking that the pain is over. Your property is never fully safe from government confiscation.

One of the few areas of innovation in which the state excels is how to extract ever more wealth from the productive class, and one of the fastest growing sources of revenue for insatiable governments is civil asset forfeiture (CAF).

What Is Civil Asset Forfeiture?

Law enforcement agencies engage in CAF when they suspect that your property was either used in the commission of a crime or if your property was gains from the commission of a crime. Officials do not need to prove anything in court in order to seize your property; rather, they simply take it and you are forced to prove the “innocence” of your property in order to get it back.

Courts have attempted to justify this disregard for property rights by creating the legal fiction of having the case being against the property rather than the owner (resulting in case names like U.S. v. $10,000 in Cash), thus bypassing 4th and 5th Amendment protections. Perhaps also as disturbing are the perverse incentives of CAF legislation, which often allow law enforcement agencies themselves to keep the majority or all of the proceeds from forfeiture for their own budgets.


Massive Fire Burns At Gateway Town To Alberta’s Oilsands; 30,000 Evacuated / by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2016 19:56

Residents of neighborhoods in the Canadian boomtown of Fort McMurray – considered the gateway to Alberta’s oil sands as the Athabasca oil sands are roughly centered around the town – are under mandatory evacuation as a massive wildfire has jumped across Highway 63 and entered the city limits.  Homes have begun to burn in Fort McMurray as residents flee for safety from a blaze that’s doubled in size within a day.  More than 30,000 people have now been ordered to evacuate Fort McMurray communities.


Short Seller Warns Bear Market Rally In Stocks Is Over & When Gold Breaks $1,300 Look For Serious Upside Acceleration / May 03, 2016

On the heels of the U.S. Dollar Index rallying more than a point off the lows, today one of the great short sellers in the business warned that the bear market rally in stocks is over and when gold breaks $1,300 we may see a serious upside acceleration.

By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
May 3 (King World News) – 
There’s no need to review what happened while I was away because that is all old news. It would now appear that yesterday’s rally in the stock market was simply a function of mechanical buying at the beginning of the new month. I say that because it took all of about an hour this morning to see the stock market lose roughly 1%. I think a pretty decent case can be made that the rally from the February lows is now over, and I would point out that despite the best attempts of all the bulls to jam the market to new highs, they were unable to get it there…


Bitcoin to End Government and Change the World… Get Out Of The Banking System Now

TheDollarVigilante, Published on May 3, 2016

Jeff is interviewed by Gordon T Long of The Financial Repression Authority, topics include: getting outside the banking system with Bitcoin, rumours of Bitcoin’s demise are greatly exaggerated, one world government, currency and taxation system, planned world wide indebtedness, the Panama papers used to increase elite control, the total inability to control or shutdown Bitcoin, complete decentralisation, big banks frightened of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is evolution in money, blockchain technology will change the world, the replacement of government services, The Dollar Vigilante and the current investment environment, internationalisation, Russian cyber-warfare armies, controlled collapse of the global economy, sound money, bank bail ins, negative interest rates…

Why Is Tesla Short Interest Near All Time High: Each Car Is “Valued” At $620,000, And More / by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2016 17:15

There is one group of investors who will be closely watching Tesla’s results due out tomorrow: the shorts. The reason is that with the stock trading near record highs following a dramatic rebound from the February lows when it plunged to $150, only to rebound back to $250, short sellers have stubbornly refused to step away, and as the chart below shows, short interest remains just shy of record high.


US Is Using Peace In The Middle East To Prep For War – Episode 961b

X22Report, Published on May 3, 2016

Obamacare premiums are going to increase by a huge amount. EU is moving away from the TTIP and France will not sign it. Obama threatens the world, play by our rules or else. Satellite photos do not show North Korea is preparing another launch. US sends troops to Moldova for a drill. US troops are now being deployed to Yemen. US proceeds with plans to invade Libya. Turkey reports Syria fired a missile into their country, so Turkey returned fire. John Kerry pushes for peace but is stalling to prepare for a major war in the region. IS has a list of names in NY, they said they will kill each person on the list. Be prepared for a false flag.

The Tech Start-Up Bubble Is Bursting / By Christopher Mims at the Wall Street Journal / May 3, 2016

When the dot-com bubble burst in early 2000, the fallout for publicly traded stocks was quick and severe. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 37% in the 10 weeks following its peak on March 10, 2000.

For startups, the immediate impact was less dramatic. In the second quarter of 2000, venture capitalists invested $25 billion in startups, down only 5% from the first-quarter peak.

“There was a lot of suspended disbelief between March and June,” says Keith Rabois, then a vice president at PayPal Inc. and now a partner at Khosla Ventures.

Mr. Rabois and others think we’re now in a similar period of suspension of disbelief. Startup investment has cooled. Valuations are falling. But Mr. Rabois says many investors and entrepreneurs haven’t yet grasped the new reality. “If that suspended disbelief ends, all hell breaks loose,” he says.

The parallels between the two eras aren’t perfect. After a seven-month decline, the Nasdaq index has gained 12% since early February.

As of April 18, it was within 5% of its post-2000 high. Initial public offerings have all but disappeared, but venture-capital funds raised a record amount of capital in the first quarter.