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One week ago we were surprised to read that, in Tom Lee’s 2017 market outlook, Wall Street’s formerly most vocal cheerleader and its most prominent permabull had unexpectedly turned into one of the most skeptical bears. As a reminder, at a time when virtually every other Wall Street strategist, even the quasi skeptics, are convinced the market is going nowhere but higher, Lee now expects that the S&P 500 will finish the year virtually unchanged at 2,275, and roughly 3% lower than the median sellside forecast. His caution is the result of concerns about policy risk and a yield curve adjustment, which he sees translating into an S&P 500 decline to 2,150 by mid-year before a modest second half rebound.
“The bond market is signaling inflation confusion and a flattening long-term yield curve” Lee said, adding that this generally leads to a 5 to 7% selloff. He warned, however, that while “the bond market is less enthusiastic about the reflation trade than equities – since 1977, a flattening of the long-term yield curve sees equities weak over next 6 months— given the potential for a large rotation into stocks, equities could rally throughout 1H.”
peakprosperity.com / by Chris Martenson / Friday, January 13, 2017
Fair warning, my family just received a 61.5% increase in our healthcare insurance premium of 2017, on top of last year’s 24.8% increase, so I am quite annoyed at the moment. For my non-US readers, perhaps what follows will interest you as a means of understanding how and why Donald Trump came to be elected President. I am going to be channeling some of my inner crank today.
If you want to understand why Trump won the recent US presidential election, you can’t overlook the economic data. If you do, his victory may look mighty confusing, alarming even. But once you understand the degree to which the average US family and the entire Gen-X and Millennial generations are being completely hosed economically, everything starts to take shape.
The paper further notes that in the speech, scheduled for Tuesday, the PM will “finally lay her cards on the table”, making clear that the UK is set to pull out of the single market and the European customs union in return for the ability to curb immigration, strike commercial deals with other countries, and escape the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, the Sunday Times said without saying how it obtained the information.
In a separate interview with German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, May’s finance chief, Philip Hammond, said Britain would be willing to abandon “mainstream economic and social thinking” if it is unable to craft a favorable post-Brexit EU deal. Hammond said he hoped the U.K. could remain in the mainstream, but was prepared for the consequences for a hard Brexit.
“If we have no access to the European market, if we are closed off, if Britain were to leave the European Union without an agreement on market access, then we could suffer from economic damage at least in the short-term. In this case, we could be forced to change our economic model and we will have to change our model to regain competitiveness. And you can be sure we will do whatever we have to do.”
armstrongeconomics.com / by Martin Armstrong / Jan 15, 2017
What could be the worst ice storm in 10 years began Friday in the central U.S., as forecasters warned it will unload freezing rain on a 1,000-mile swath from the central Plains to the mid-Atlantic over the weekend.
Dr. D.C. Hammond discovered that amongst his patients, of those who had experienced abuse, a good portion of them had experienced mind control programming. Without leading his colleagues to the same conclusion, his clinical peers across the nation confirmed the same: a portion of their patients with multiple personality disorder had indeed been victims of mind control programming. Dr. Hammond and his peers, through observation and questioning of their patients and their patients’ various personalities, discovered their mind control was occult in origin. The victims named various cults, the military, and the CIA as the perpetrators. The key ingredient in the mind control process was extreme abuse at a very young age: emotional, sexual, and physical abuse so the young victims would become dissociative, meaning their mind was divided into alternates which we know as multiple personality disorder.
President-elect Donald Trump greeted Sunday with a pair of early morning tweets, when shortly after 9am he said that Democrats are “most angry that so many Obama Democrats voted for me.” He followed up by saying that “with all of the jobs I am bringing back to our Nation, that number will only get higher.”
Meanwhile, in response to the latest Trump confrontation with Democratic lawmaker John Lewis, a growing number of Democrats will boycott Trump’s inauguration. So far, at least 19 Democrats have announced they won’t attend the Jan. 20 ceremony.
If Trump makes to past the inauguration on Jan 20th, expect a serious purge to take place in Washington DC, as the new administration attempt to remove those who are hell-bent on sabotaging the political process and transfer of power.
goldstockbull.com / By Taylor Dart / January 9th, 2017
The price of gold has begun 2017 on more solid footing, posting a 1.9% gain in the first trading week of the new year. The bears came out of the woodwork this weekend to warn us that last week’s move was simply an oversold bounce. They cheered on the slight pullback in gold prices Friday, and all of them are in consensus that $1,200/oz will be a brick wall of resistance. While the trend is still in the bears’ favor, they seem to be ignoring the COT data.
The COT (Committment of Traders) data is one of my favorite indicators I use when trading commodities, and I am the most interested in the positioning of the Commercials. The Commercials are the largest powers in the marketplace, and are the users and producers of the commodity. They do not use the markets to speculate, but instead use it to sell forward/hedge their production or demand. The ability to study the Commercials movements is a huge asset, as their footprints are like those of elephants. When the commercials are at heavy net short levels you want to be cautious with your long positions. Conversely, when the commercials are heavily net long, you want to have a tight leash on short positions, and begin position yourself to the long side.
We start our Sunday with some gloomy predictions from Morgan Stanley‘s appreciately named “Sunday Start” periodical, in which the bank’s Chief Global cross-asset strategist, Andrew Sheets, explains why the market return under the Obama administration will be a tough act to follow. His argument in a nutshell: “good market environments often involve a shift from economic despair to optimism, and a shift in psychology from ‘fear’ to ‘greed’. Both occurred over the last eight years, producing returns well above the long-run average. Whichever party was next to take the White House, it was going to be a tough act to follow.”
Which is not to say that MS is damning the “Trump market” before he has even stepped into office:
Things, of course, could get better, and we certainly hope that strong returns continue. But investors looking to keep the good times rolling should remember a key thing from the above: Starting points matter, making it logical to start with things that haven’t had a particularly good time over the last eight years.
The bank’s advice: invest elsewhere, especially in places – like Europe and Japan – which have failed to enjoy the US asset bump, because as Morgan Stanley calculates, “non-US equities have underperformed the S&P 500 by 90% over the last eight years. In US dollars, they underperformed by 108%. Again, a better starting point, and a preference for Japan and European equities in 2017 remains a core view.”
Gold prices have had a good start to 2017 and has made gains in the majority of currencies, building on the strong gains seen in 2016. So far in 2017, gold is 3.5% higher in dollars, 2.3% higher in euros and 4% higher in sterling.
Increasing nerves regarding the Trump Presidency likely account for some of the gains. Although the fundamentals of the gold market remain strong even were Trump not becoming President of the United State of America.
A backdrop of financial repression and global currency debasement involving ultra loose monetary policies and near negative interest rates, a push for cashless society, a still massively indebted U.S. and global economy and still very fragile banking systems all bodes well for gold prices in the coming years – not too mention positive supply demand fundamental that is peak gold.
wealth.goldmoney.com / BY ALASDAIR MACLEOD / JANUARY 13, 2017
Gold and silver continued their rise this week in very light physical trade, though trade in futures was active. From last Friday’s close, gold rose $20 to $1193, and silver by 30c to $16.76 in early European trade this morning.
Behind the rise in gold was a fall in the dollar, which had been very strong in the second half of 2016. In early European trade this morning prices have opened steady, below the intraday highs of yesterday, as dealers try to decide if there will be some profit-taking after a strong week.
Precious metals today appear to be repeating their performance of last year. The Fed raised the Fed Funds Rate in December 2015, and gold performed very strongly in the months that followed. Similarly, the Fed raised the FFR last month, and gold has risen strongly in subsequent weeks, so far.
marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / January 15, 2017
Like many, we recognize that political factors may overshadow macroeconomic drivers in shaping the investment climate in the period ahead. We suspect this will be very much the case in the coming days It is not that the economic data doesn’t matter, but for many investors, the imprecision and quirky nature of the high frequency economic data pale in comparison to the risks emanating from politics and policy.
Before providing a thumbnail sketch of the five events, we think may shape the investment climate in the week ahead, allow us to briefly preview the economic highlights. The US and Japan round out the large countries industrial output reports. Europe accelerated. Japan is will likely confirm the strongest monthly increase since March 2014. US industrial output is expected to have snapped back from a weak November. The soft patch the dragged it lower for three of the past four months through November may have ended.
The US, UK, and Canada report inflation measures. UK inflation is expected to have stabilized at higher levels, though PPI may continue to trend higher. US headline CPI is expected to continue to converge with the core rate, as is repeatedly done for the past fifty years. It is expected to push through 2.0% for the first time since July 2014. The core rate is expected to tick up to 2.2% from 2.1%. Canada’s CPI has averaged 1.4% this year and 1.1% in 2015. It is expected to rebound from 1.2% in November to 1.7% last month.
The simmering cold, if heating up with every passing day, war between Trump and the press may be about to turn conventional, with the occasional chance of an ICBM.
Just days after calling out CNN fake news during his first press conference of 2017, Esquire reports that according to three senior officials on the transition team, the incoming Trump administration is “seriously considering” a plan to evict the press corps from the White House.
If the plan goes through, one of the officials said, the media will be removed from the cozy confines of the White House press room, where it has worked for several decades. Members of the press will be relocated to the White House Conference Center—near Lafayette Square—or to a space in the Old Executive Office Building, next door to the White House.
Trump’s press secretary tried to cast the possible relocation of the press corps as a matter, in part, of logistics. “There’s been so much interest in covering a President Donald Trump,” he said. “A question is: Is a room that has forty-nine seats adequate? When we had that press conference the other day, we had thousands of requests, and we capped it at four hundred. Is there an opportunity to potentially allow more members of the media to be part of this? That’s something we’re discussing.”
thecommonsenseshow.com / By Dave Hodges / January 14th, 2017
Is Trump going back off on his pledge to not prosecute the Clinton’s? I hope so.
Despite the election night deal that brought a false promise to not challenge the election if Trump promised to not prosecute Hillary and Bill for high crimes and misdemeanors. However, the Clintons’ predictably broke their word and now Trump wants revenge.
“In the name of humanity we refuse to accept a fascist America,” the group’s slogan reads at the top of their website. Anarchists from the group Refuse Fascismplan to “take to the streets” on Inauguration Day and “bring D.C. to a halt” after claiming that Donald Trump has “assembled a regime of grave danger.”
The group says that a Trump presidency is “illegitimate” because he did not win the “popular vote” but rather won the Electoral College which the group claims “is an institution set up in 1787 to protect slavery.”
Stopping the Trump regime is not “wishful thinking” the group says, claiming a “massive mobilization” could turn it into a “reality.”
The shenanigans are set to begin at 4 p.m. on Saturday, Jan. 14 starting at McPherson Square.
ericpetersautos.com / Eric Peters / January 14, 2017
At the Detroit Auto Show reveal of the soon-to-be-produced hybrid Ford Mustang, marketing manager Mark Schaller said the following: “The world has figured out a way to take that technology and use it for performance… that will be the way we use that technology for this car . . . it’s not meant to be a hyper-miler car; Mustang is all about having fun while you drive.” (Italics added.)
And the trained seals clapped.
But, excuse me, please. If the object of this exercise isn’t mileage then why go to the trouble? I mean, what is the point, exactly?
To show it can be done?
A hybrid drivetrain makes no sense except as a way to reduce the amount of gasoline a vehicle burns. In other words, to make it more economical to drive.
When a utility stock pays a dividend that yields 11 percent it is either an overlooked steal or the equity of a company with big problems–and a dividend that’s soon to be either eliminated or reduced. EDF, France’s state controlled nuclear energy giant, looks more the latter than the former. But never underestimate the determination of French politicians–right, left and center to protect and subsidize their civilian nuclear power establishment.
To understand this byzantine story of French public and private partnerships, let’s start with EDF’s current stock price. It’s priced in Paris this morning at about €9.60, slightly above the 52 week low. And down from a high of €28.78 more than two years ago.
To compound its woes, EDF’s stock sells at about 63 percent of its book value. This typically indicates the market’s view that either current earnings provide a below-cost-of-capital return or that investors don’t believe the assets are worth the value carried on EDF’s books. By way of contrast, a financially sound electric utility in the U.S. sells at about 1.5 times its book value and its shares offer investors a yield of less than 4 percent. In February, shareholders of EDF and Areva, the state controlled nuclear engineering and mining company will vote on a monumental reorganization. The reported terms would raise serious questions in Wall Street’s finest minds.
Filed as mandated by the Department of Labor’s Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification, or WARN notice, on January 12, the Clinton Foundation’s Veronika Shiroka advised the DOL that as part of a “Plant Layoff” it would layoff 22 workers on April 15, with reason for the dislocation stated as “Discontinuation of the Clinton Global Initiative.” The layoffs are part of the Clinton plan put in motion ahead of the presidential election, to offset a storm of criticism regarding pay-to-play allegations during Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state.
AN ANTI-DONALD TRUMP GROUP IS PLANNING MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK’S INAUGURATION COVERING EVERYTHING FROM “BLOCKADES” AT SECURITY CHECKPOINTS TO A “DANCE PARTY” OUTSIDE VP-ELECT MIKE PENCE’S HOUSE, ACCORDING TO GROUP LEADERS AS WELL AS NEWLY OBTAINED AUDIO OF THEIR APPARENT PLANS.
EDITOR’S NOTE: George Soros, still smarting from a bought and paid for Hillary “victory” has found a new place to spend his blood-soaked billions. The domestic terror group DisruptJ20 is going to take to the streets to terrorize men, women and children on January 20th. And just like in Ferguson and Baltimore, Soros is hoping for that someone dies in melee.
The organization #DisruptJ20 already announced at a press conference Thursday its various plans to wreak havoc at Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration and in the days leading up to it.
On January 13, Udo Ulfkotte died, reportedly of a heart attack.
Ulfkotte had been an editor at the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitzung.
He published a courageous book in which he said that the CIA had
a hand on every significient journalist in Europe, which gave Washington
control over European opinion and reduced knowledge of and opposition to Washington’s control over European heads of state. Essentially, there are no European governments independent of Washington.
Courage, once plentiful in Europe, is today hard to find. Charles de Gaulle was the last head of a major European state that maintained independence from Washington. Today we find independence in Marine Le Pen and perhaps in the president of Hungary. But for the most part West and East European heads of state are Washington’s vassals committed to Washington’s wars.
This, of course, includes the Chancellor of Germany, the President of France, and the British Prime Minister. These once powerful countries of Europe, whose dominance comprises most of Western history from the fall of Rome to the Second World War, are today American puppet states.
Under Yeltsin, Russia herself succumbed to American overlordship, but under Vladimir Putin Russia regained her independence and is today able to constrain Washington’s unilateralism in some areas of the world, such as Syria and Crimea.
"Anyone who claims to stand for free markets, free trade, and limited government but who attempts to defend the existence or importance of the Federal Reserve or central banking is a liar. Either you support free markets and freedom of pricing or you support central bank price-fixing and creeping socialism. There is no third way or middle road — socialism and the free market are mutually incompatible. A little bit of socialism in the form of price-fixing is like a little bit of gangrene, if left unchecked it will eventually infect and kill the whole." - Paul-Martin Foss via The Mises Institute