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Bernie Supporters Boo, Jeer After Call To Vote For Clinton-Kaine / by Tyler Durden / Jul 25, 2016 1:46 PM

Somewhere, Donald Trump is grinning…

While positive on beating Trump, Bernie Sanders’ delegates boo and jeer after he asks them to support the Clinton-Kaine ticket


Decision Time for Silver Investors? / Roland Watson / July 25, 2016

What I will say comes with some reservation, mainly because the future is unwritten. However, based on the notion that markets will rhyme rather than repeat, I present a scenario in which a decision has to be made by silver investors in the near future. That decision is whether to hold onto silver, sell some of it or sell all of it.

This is not because I foresee this nascent silver bull being strangled at birth, but rather because of the nature of the silver bull. The problem is silver in the past 13 years has seen some volatile action followed by periods of inactivity. These periods can be so volatile that some silver investors may wish to reduce their positions at such a time. Contrast the two charts below which compare periods of silver volatility (first chart) against the same time window for gold (second chart).


The Truman Show / By: CAPTAINHOOK / 25 July 2016

Bubbles are bursting everywhere for the Truman’s of this world today, previously coddled in whatever version of reality TV they resided – waking up to the scary truth we are trapped in a forgotten episode of the Twilight Zone (but never forgotten by Orwell) – the one where psychopath fascists take control of the world and kill us all. That’s what happens when you’re a naïve idiot like Truman, getting all your information from a bankrupt society attempting to preserve itself through lies, script, and authority. This characterization of ‘life’ for increasing numbers of the disenfranchised middle class is much like Truman’s awakening as the lies were exposed, again, much like what you should be seeing in your circumstance today as the psychopaths attempt to take complete control of our lives.

I say ‘attempt to take control of our lives’ when the deed has already been done, because they have accomplished this is spades. What’s happening now is the undoing – with no more colonies to conquer and exploit they turn on their own – you – until that party gets too violent as well. That’s the authoritarian part of the story, the part where they show you how crazy they are and why you should be afraid. That’s why the cops keep shooting people and they have been getting away with it up until now. But they can’t get away with their bulling ways on the other ‘big boys’ in the game – China and Russia. Their astute leaders are too smart for that. They have been on to the vulgarities associated with American Empire since the ‘financial crisis’, echoes of which are becoming visible again with the resurgent credit binge post 2008.

As you should know, the status quo has been on a ‘mission from hell’ since then to turn the world into their own version of the Truman Show, so they can continue on in the dream world in which they reside. But times are getting tough even for these types again, never mind honest and civilized people, so they are becoming increasingly desperate. Because not only is the real economy in trouble, the subsidized economy (think ZIRP. NIRP, etc.) is visibly feeling the pain now despite all the money printing, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. But so far the status quo has been able to stay ahead of the curve, stepping up the interventions, leaving any vestiges of reality in the rear view mirror. The stock market at all time highs is testament to this fact – a fiction completely removed from reality by the machines.


Subprime Snaps: Largest US Subprime Auto Lender Delays Earnings Due To “Accounting Matters” / by Tyler Durden / Jul 25, 2016 1:40 PM

We first introduced readers to Skopos Financial, a company which we dubbed “The new king of deep subprime” which we have long expected to become ground zero for the upcoming subprime auto crisis, and which is run by Santander Consumer USA veterans, last April.

This is what we said about the company that has become increasingly more prominent: “Skopos Financial, a four-year-old auto finance company based in Irving, Tex., sold a $149 million bond deal consisting of car loans made to borrowers considered so subprime you might call them—we dunno—sub-subprime?”

As Bloomberg noted at the time, the details from the prospectus showed a whopping 20 percent of the loans bundled into the bond deal were made to borrowers with a credit score ranging from 351 to 500—the bottom 6 percent of U.S. borrowers, according to FICO. As a reminder, the cut-off for “prime” borrowers is generally considered to be a credit score of around 620. More than 14 percent of the loans in the Skopos deal were made to borrowers with no score at all.  That means the Skopos deal has a slightly higher percentage of no-score borrowers than the recent subprime auto securitization recently sold by Santander Consumer, which garnered plenty of attention for its dive into “deep subprime” territory.”


Donald Trump is Right About Globalization: It’s a Broken System / By Stephen S. Roach, Marketwatch • 

NEW HAVEN, Conn. (Project Syndicate) —– While seemingly elegant in theory, globalization suffers in practice.

That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump in the United States. And it also underpins the increasingly virulent anti-China backlash now sweeping the world. Those who worship at the altar of free trade, including me, must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.

Truth be known, there is no rigorous theory of globalization. The best that economists can offer is David Ricardo’s early-19th century framework: If a country simply produces in accordance with its comparative advantage (in terms of resource endowments and workers’ skills), presto, it will gain through increased cross-border trade. Trade liberalization — the elixir of globalization — promises benefits for all.

That promise arguably holds in the long run, but a far tougher reality check invariably occurs in the short run. Brexit, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union, is just the latest case in point.

Voters in the U.K. objected to several of the key premises of regional integration: free labor mobility and seemingly open-ended immigration, regulation by supranational authorities in Brussels, and currency union (which has serious flaws, such as the lack of a fiscal transfer mechanism among member states). Economic integration and globalization are not exactly the same thing, but they rest on the same Ricardian principles of trade liberalization — principles that are falling on deaf ears in the political arena.


SoT US: Corrupt Money, Corrupt System

Shadow of Truth, Published on Jul 25, 2016

It looks like the Democratic Convention is getting off to a disastrous start after it was revealed that Democratic leaders, including DNC Chairman Wendy Wasserman-Schultz – along with, make no mistake about this, Hillary Clinton – conspired with the mainstream media to smear Bernie Sanders and perpetrated the civil unrest disruptions at Trump campaign rallies.

Can it get any more corrupt than this? In this episode of the Shadow of Truth, we connect systemic corruption to its root – a corrupt monetary system. We also explain why Hillary Clinton is probably the most corrupt public figure in history.

Stocks Slide To Worst Day In A Month After Crude Carnage, Kuroda Chaos / by Tyler Durden / Jul 25, 2016 4:44 PM

Overheard in Philadelphia and on every mainstream business media outlet today…

Stocks did not go up today…



As of late, Germany has been experiencing an unprecedented surge in terrorist attacks committed by Muslims. On Sunday a suicide bomber injured 12 people at a music festival in Bavaria, and on Friday a shooter killed 9 people at a shopping center. And before that, an axe wielding Afghan injured several train passengers.

So who’s to blame for all of these attacks? What’s the common thread? To you it’s probably obvious, but to the German Government, these are apparently just random unfortunate incidents. They have nothing to do with Germany’s refugee policy.


ALERT: Stocks Fall. High Probability Of More Losses Ahead. By Gregory Mannarino

Gregory Mannarino, Published on Jul 25, 2016

Wasserman Schultz: “I Am Not Going To Gavel In The Convention / by Tyler Durden / Jul 25, 2016 1:39 PM

And just like that, she’s gone: “I have decided that in the interest of making sure that we can start the Democratic convention on a high note that I am not going to gavel in the convention,” Wasserman Schultz told The Sun Sentinel.

In a brief phone conversation with the Sun Sentinel, she said:


What Now? / JEFFREY D SAUT / 07/25/2016

I got an email last week that read, “What do I do now?” I replied, “I don’t know what you mean.” She wrote back, “I didn’t buy the February lows that your model told us to buy and I didn’t buy any of the stocks on your ‘buy list’ the Monday following the Brexit Bashing. So what do I do now?” I told her I continue to think we remain in the same secular bull market that began in March of 2009 and I think it has a lot farther to go. Yes, I know the equity markets get overbought from time to time. Yes, I know there will be pullbacks. Yes, I know certain valuation metrics are historically expensive, but I also know how secular bull markets work. I have written many times about the fact that there are not many of us left. There are not many of us that have seen a secular bull market. I don’t know where the market mantra came from that a 20% rally is a bull market and a 20% decline is a bear market, but I do not believe that’s the case. Well, it might be the case in the shorter term for tactical bull and bear markets, but it’s not the case for secular bull markets!

Secular bull markets tend to last 14 – 15 years and compound at 16% per year (on average). Study the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart (chart 1). Since the 1929 “crash” there has been just two secular bull markets: 1949 to 1966 and 1982 to 2000. Were there pullbacks during those secular “bulls?” You bet there were. The President Kennedy “steel crisis” of 1962 lopped ~26% off of the D-J Industrials in a pretty short time. Then there was the slight accident in October of 1987 that left the Industrials off 22.6% in a single day, but it was not the end of either of those secular bull markets. Again, study the chart. Every time the D-J Industrial Average (INDU/18570.85) has emerged from a multi-year trading range (1933 – 1949, 1966 – 1982, 2000 – 2013) the markets has entered a secular bull market. I don’t think it is any different this time.


They Are Tracking Duty-Free Purchases in Airports / by Martin Armstrong / Jul 25, 2016

Have you ever wondered why you have to show your boarding pass to purchase something in the duty-free shops, after passing security, when in fact nobody can be there without a boarding pass? The answer is starting to surface.

It turns out the government is tracking the destination of travelers who buy anything in the airport.


Yen Tumbles On Spurious Nikkei Headline, Stocks Shrug / by Tyler Durden / Jul 25, 2016 1:26 PM

When you asbolutely, positively need to get stocks higher, unleash a spurious Nikkei headline (at 220am local time)… “Japan to Double Planned Spending in Stimulus Package: Nikkei” and sure enough USDJPY spikes back above 106.00… but S&P futures algos are ignoring it for now…

Goldman earlier said that 3 trillion was too small…


The Coup and Turkey as a Great Power / BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN / JULY 25, 2016

In my book The Next 100 Years, I argued that Turkey is going to become a major regional power. Recent events would seem at odds with this prospect. But in fact, they confirm it.

Emerging as a regional power puts great pressure on a nation. The shift in the external reality forces shifts internally as well. The result is what we have seen so far in Turkey: a clash between rival factions with diverse visions, a coup of some sort, and for now, a dictatorship.

Rising power in the world flows from greater domestic strength. But it feeds back into the internal system and creates strain on social and political fault lines. We can see examples of this throughout history.

How the US and Japan Emerged as Global Powers

The Mexican-American War turned the US into the leading regional power in North America. The war also spurred the early stages of industrialization. Railroads, the telegraph, and various forms of hydrocarbon-powered factories began to change the very nature of commerce.

So, one part of the US (the North) began quickly evolving its economic and social systems. The South wanted to retain its plantation-based economy and social system. The split led to the Civil War and the deaths of over half a million.

Some believed the Civil War would end the regional power status of the US and cripple its economy. It was a fair outlook, but it was wrong. From 1865 onward, the US grew its economic and global power.


Great Graphic: OIl Breaks Down Further /  by Marc Chandler / July 25, 2016

Today’s 2.5% fall in the September light sweet crude oil futures contract extends the decline that began on June 9. It is the third consecutive loss and the fifth loss in the past six sessions.

There are two important points to make that this Great Graphic from Bloomberg helps illustrates.
First, the contract has fallen through a trend line drawn off the January, February and April lows. It flirted the trend line in the first half of the month, but finally and convincingly broke. it. We first identified this trend line in the middle of June. The continuation contract staged a key reversal on June 9 (but not the front-month contract at the time).

Second, with today’s losses the September contract has nearly completed a 50% retracement (blue line) of this year’s rally that began in late January at $32.85. It had found support near the 38.2% retracement (top green line). A break of $42.79 (today’s low $42.97) would suggest a move toward the 61.8% retracement (lower green line) which matches the mid-April spike low.

The market’s focus has changed. The weekly oil inventory numbers seem less important than they were earlier this year. It seems that part of the drawn down has transformed the oil glut into a gasoline glut. From a seasonal point of view, gasoline stocks are the highest in more than 20 years. Typically as the peak, US driving season ebbs, the demand for oil drops.


Foreign Central Banks Flee From Ugly, Tailing 2Y Treasury Auction, Lowest Bid To Cover Since 2008 / By Tyler Durden / Jul 25, 2016 1:13 PM

We classified last month’s 2Y auction as “lacklustre.” This month, the best word to describe today’s sale of $26 billion in 2Y paper is “dreadful.”

While the yield on the auction was almost unchanged from last month, coming at 0.760%, it tailed by 1.2bps to the 0.748% When Issued, compared to last month which came on the screws at 0.745%. This was the biggest tail for this maturity going back over a year.


WHAT’S GOING ON??? Record Swiss Gold Flow Into The United States / by SRSrocco / July 25, 2016

There was a huge trend change in U.S. gold investment in May.  Something quite extraordinary took place which hasn’t happened for several decades.  While Switzerland has been a major source of U.S. gold exports for many years, the tables turned in May as the Swiss exported a record amount of gold to the United States.

How much gold?  A lot.  The Swiss exported 50 times more gold in May than their monthly average (0.4 mt) since 2015:

As we can see, the Swiss gold exports to the United States are normally less than 0.5 metric ton a month.  And for many months there weren’t any gold exports.  However, something big changed in May as Swiss gold exports surged to 20.7 mt (665.500 oz)


Hillary Clinton is in Deep Trouble – “Hordes of Wall Street Executives” Descend Upon Philly / Michael Krieger / 

Political pundits throughout the land are tripping over each other to compose the latest bland, uninsightful screed proclaiming the death of the Republican Party. This makes sense, because the primary purpose of a political pundit is to state the obvious years after it’s already become established fact to everyone actually paying attention.

Yes, of course, Trump winning the GOP nomination marks the end of the party as we know it. After all, some neocons are already publicly and actively throwing their support behind Hillary. While this undoubtably represents a major turning point in U.S. political history, many pundits have yet to appreciate that the exact same thing is happening within the Democratic Party. It’s just not completely obvious yet.

– From February’s post: It’s Not Just the GOP – The Democratic Party is Also Imploding

I believe Hillary Clinton lost the Presidency this past week. While the explosive DNC leaks will undoubtably have a long lasting effect, this post will barely reference the leaks. Rather, it will explain how recent decisions by the Hillary campaign played right into Trump’s hands by essentially waving a gigantic middle finger to the 73% of Americanswho think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

What Hillary Clinton did in selecting Tim Kaine as VP was send a clear signal that not only is she the status quo candidate, she is proud of it. She didn’t just double down on being the establishment candidate, she tripled and quadrupled down. There is now no denying that Hillary Clinton is implicitly running on only two themes.


Kamikaze Cruz / By Nicholas James Pell via Taki’s Magazine / July 25, 2016

The big news of the day: Ted Cruz declined to endorse Donald Trump. Instead, he used his RNC address to deliver an extended passive-aggressive slight. Cruz urged delegates to “vote your conscience,” a rather strange phrase coming from a man who doesn’t appear to have one.

Two years ago, I wrote about how Ted Cruz was the sleaziest politician this side of Bill Clinton. Last night he vindicated every uncharitable thought I’ve ever had toward him. His refusal to endorse Trump explicitly violates the terms of the loyalty pledge specifically designed to hedge Trump in. In short, Cruz respects the democratic process…at least until he loses.


Mid Summer Momo Update / Evil Speculator / July 25, 2016

Mid Summer Momo Update

It is hot and it is humid over here in Valencia. You want to know how hot? The other day a poodle’s tail caught fire just waiting in the sun. The more frantically he was wiggling his tail the brighter it burned.

Fortunately his master was nearby and was sweating so much (overweight Brit) that he was able to put the fire out with his bare hands. True story!

Well, maybe not – but that’s definitely how it feels over here. Fortunately the evil lair is equipped with an industrial strength A/C unit which will continuously run on its polar bear setting until late August. If the power goes down I’m dead meat as I have a high tolerance for heat but a very low one for humidity.

Alright, so I don’t really feel like putting up setups today, in particular since most of you guys are either on vacation or too lazy to actually pull the trigger. Let’s do a mid summer momo update instead – we’ve got interesting developments on all fronts and if you’re holding long here then you may want to pay attention.

Simple stuff first – realized volatility. Take a look at the blue squares I highlighted on the chart above. Each time we are seeing an explosion in RV – twice to the downside and the most recent one to the upside, burning any remaining bears into potash.


Silver Spikes Back Into Green After Overnight Slump / by Tyler Durden / Jul 25, 2016 12:14 PM

Silver was monkey-hammered lower as Japan and China opened overnight, bashed back below $19.50, and was accelerating lower ahead of the US Open when the fixing struck and suddenly Silver was panic-bid… on heavy volume… back into the green for the day…


Helicopter Money and ECB Backdoor Bailouts / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / July 25, 2016

What is Helicopter money? Can the Fed or ECB just drop money from the sky?

The answer is no, at least legally. As I have explained before, the Fed cannot provide capital, but it can provide liquidity.

Although central banks show little regard for the rules under which they operate, they have not resorted to”helicopter money” in any real sense. But they sure have created bubbles.

Popular Misconception

The above image (and hundreds of similar images), are often used to depict “helicopter money”.

It’s a popular misconception of what’s really happening.

John Hussman discusses the above ideas in his latest weekly commentary Speculative Extremes and Historically-Informed Optimism.

Last week, market conditions joined the same tiny handful of extremes that defined the 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000 and 2007 market peaks. Still, the false signal near the start of 2014 (and lesser extremes before then), helpless in the face of single basis-point Treasury bill yields and uniform market internals, encourages a certain level of humility and flexibility.


Crunch Time In Asia——Massive Debt Repayments Looming In Next 3 Years / By Christopher Langner via Bloomberg Business / 

Millions of words have been expended on China’s debt problem. Two points need making: The danger is Asia-wide. And if an implosion is coming, it’s most likely in the next three years.

Nonfinancial corporations in the region face a string of record offshore maturities from now until 2019 — a total $219.7 billion of bonds denominated in dollars and euros is due between January 2017 and December 2019.

Much of that debt was issued over the past three years. Since March 2013, currencies across Asia have dropped, in some cases by double digits.


FBI Launches Probe Of ‘Putin/Trump’ DNC Cyber-Attack / by Tyler Durden / Jul 25, 2016 12:05 PM

Following the release of greatly embarrassing emails that are forcing Hillary to lose control of the narrative, Politico reports, The Federal Bureau of Investigation has launched a probe into the hacking of the Democratic National Committee’s emails. We are sure Director Comey will be closely watching and AG Lynch will once again take his word as gospel as somehow, we suspect, a narrative of Trump-Putin partnership will be created (or at the very least questions raised).

“The FBI is investigating a cyber intrusion involving the DNC and are working to determine the nature and scope of the matter,” the agency said in a statement.

A compromise of this nature is something we take very seriously, and the FBI will continue to investigate and hold accountable those who pose a threat in cyberspace.”

The Trump/Putin narrative has begun (via The Observer)…