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Government Bond & Mortgage “Meltdown” Crushes NIRP

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / December 2, 2016

And the spike in mortgage rates will come in handy.

The situation in government bonds – variously labeled with “bloodbath,” “rout,” “carnage” “meltdown,” or similar propitious terms – continued on Thursday.

Already in November – so not counting the “carnage” today – the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index lost 4% or $1.7 trillion, according to Bloomberg, “the deepest slump since the gauge’s inception in 1990.”

While global stocks rallied in November, the gains – $635 billion – were outright puny compared to the $1.7 trillion wiped out in the much larger bond markets.

On Thursday it got worse. It started in Europe where government bonds got crushed after speculation surfaced that the ECB might not keep buying bonds until hell freezes over, that in fact it might begin tapering its QE program as soon as next year. The markets were aghast.

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Animal Die Off – Protest Showdown – Mystery Disease – FSS World News Update

FullSpectrumSurvivalPublished on Dec 2, 2016

Norway Buying $130 Billion In Global Equities As Sovereign Wealth Fund Continues To Bleed Cash

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Dec 2, 2016

After being forced to withdraw at least $15 billion to fund 2017 budget deficits, the $860 billion Norwegian sovereign wealth fund has announced that it will change it’s portfolio allocations to try to make up the difference.  The change will result in 75% of the fund’s capital being allocated to global equities, up from the current 60%.  Sure, because funneling another $130 billion to the global equity bubble is just the prudent thing to do for an extra 40bps of “expected average annual real returns.”

The central bank’s board, which oversees the fund, on Thursday recommended an increase in the equity share to 75 percent from 60 percent. That will raise the expected average annual real return to 2.5 percent over 10 years and to 3.5 percent over 30 years, compared with 2.1 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, under the current setup.

The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund said that it expects an annual return of only 0.25 percent on bonds over the next decade and that the expected “equity risk premium,” or return on stocks over government bonds, will be just 3 percentage points in a cautious estimate.

“In our analyses, this is clearly evident in global data: internationally, growth in firms’ cash flows and equity returns are correlated with growth in the global economy,” Deputy Governor Egil Matsen said in a speech Thursday in Oslo. “Global economic growth in the coming years is expected to be below its historical level. This ‘pessimism’ is partly related to the driving forces behind the low level of the real interest rate.”

Of course, the decision comes after the fund has been forced to withdraw capital over the past two years to fund budget deficits that are expected to reach over 8% of GDP.

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Is it About US Jobs Today?

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / December 2, 2016

Following the recent string of robust US economic data, and strong hints and conviction that the Fed is poised to hike rates in a fortnight, it will take a significant downside surprise to be significant.  Moreover, given economic backdrop, which has seen economists revise forecasts higher for Q4, a major disappointment, would likely be shrugged off after the headline effect.
The fact of the matter is that the US economy is growing above trend after a largely inventory-led, and manufacturing soft patch produced a few quarter of sub-par growth.  The Federal Reserve’s has nearly achieved its mandate of full employment and price stability (as it defines it, which broadly similar to other major central banks).
The prospect of fiscal stimulus and the commitment by President-elect Trump’s economic team of 3%-4% growth has also influenced the long-end of the curve.  The market is edging toward discounting two hikes next year.  The December 2017 Fed funds futures closed yesterday with the highest implied yield since January (102.5 bp).

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Greg Hunter-Weekly News Wrap-Up 12.2.16-Greg Hunter

Greg HunterPublished on Dec 1, 2016

Party’s Over? Bonds, Stocks, Dollar Dive As VIX Jumps Most In A Month

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Dec 1, 2016 4:02 PM

For Bondholders, Big Tech shareholders, and Mexicans, here’s the message…

Well if you thought November was turmoily, December is off to a turmoilier start…

  • Nasdaq worst 2 days in 3 months (below 50DMA)
  • VIX jumped most in a month (above 50DMA)
  • Treasuries worst since Trump election
  • Gold plunged to 10-month lows (but bounced)
  • WTI jumped to highest since July 2015

Following the worst 2 months for risk-parity funds since the taper tantrum…

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UBS Says “Gold Down, But Not Out” – Plus A Look At The Silver Market

kingworldnews.com / December 01, 2016

With continued weakness and gold extremely oversold, UBS just issued a report stating gold is down, but not out.  There are some charts included and a brief note about the silver market as well.

Below is a portion of a lengthy report issued today by UBS on the gold and silver markets.

Portion Of UBS Report: Gold down, but not out
We recently tapered our gold price expectations for 2017 to reflect the move across markets after the US elections, which has been driven by hopes that fiscal stimulus would boost growth and yields up ahead. However, we have not altered the overall upward trajectory as we think that it is premature to call for a game- changer as yet, given there is still much uncertainty on what the new administration’s fiscal package might look like. In reality, much is required to overcome the low rates regime. We have therefore maintained our bullish view on gold….

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Is The Industrial Metals Surge A Sign Of Growth In Economy, Market?

zerohedge.com / Via Dana Lyons’ Tumblr / Dec 1, 2016 2:51 PM

Industrial metals are attempting to break their relative downtrend versus precious metals; that has historically been good news for the economy and stocks.

There are few better illustrations of the post-election trade, thus far, than the dichotomy between industrial metals and precious metals. The illustration is especially vivid when combining the performance of the 2 groups into a single price series. And while it seems that many folks on financial social media have taken to the practice of gratuitously lumping 2 seemingly disparate securities into a meaningless ratio chart, in this case there may be some merit. First, however, take a look at how the ratio between the S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index and the S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index is hitting a potentially critical juncture right now.

Specifically, the ratio has essentially been in a descending triangle since 2009. That is, the Industrial Metals have been making lower highs and horizontal lows versus precious metals. In a conventional single issue chart, this pattern would carry negative connotations, i.e., it would suggest a likely eventual breakdown below the lows. If that same interpretation holds here, then Industrial Metals should continue their under-performance relative to precious metals so that the ratio moves to new lows.

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Lawrie Williams: Major gold price divergence between Shanghai and London

gata.org / CHRIS POWELL / December 1, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sharps Pixley gold market analyst Lawrie Williams today takes note of the increasing divergence between prices in London and Shanghai, where premiums recently have risen to astounding levels. Williams’ commentary is headlined “Major Gold Price Divergence between Shanghai and London” and it’s posted at Sharps Pixley’s internet site here:

http://news.sharpspixley.com/article/lawrie-williams-major-gold-price-di…

SOURCE

HEDGE FUND MANAGER ON TRUMP’S WALL STREET-FILLED SWAMP: ‘I CAN TAKE GLEE IN THAT — DONALD TRUMP CONNED VOTERS’

thedailysheeple.com / 

People who truly believed a billionaire reality TV star was going to get into the White House and “drain the swamp” are getting a pretty clear picture now of just how full that swamp is going to be under a Donald J. Trump presidency.

When he isn’t considering neocons and appointing die hard establishment Republican top brass, he’s busy filling up the ranks with Wall Street.

From a 17-year Goldman Sachs banker who once worked for George Sorosas Secretary of Treasury, to a billionaire Senior Managing Director at Rothschild, Inc. for Secretary of Commerce, it’s becoming blatantly obvious the U.S. government will be business as usual only better for megabanks with the Trump Administration running things.

And don’t forget, he also promised to lower taxes for the wealthy in a “trickle down economics” scheme that has proven time again not to work (but it will line the pockets of rich people like… well… Donald Trump and his banker friends).

Now, adding insult to injury, elite bankers are openly laughing at voters who believed Trump when he promised to “drain the swamp”.

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One Scary Chart: Venezuela’s Currency Disintegrates

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Dec 1, 2016 7:33 PM

It was just this past Monday when we were reported that the Venezuela currency, the Bolivar, had crashed below 3,000 for the first time ever, losing 15% of its value in just one day as the Venezuela hyperinflation had entered its terminal phase.

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Global Bonds Suffer Worst Monthly Meltdown as $1.7 Trillion Lost

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Anthony B. Sanders via Confounded Interest / 

It has been over 30 years since 10 year Treasury yields peaked at 15.84% on September 30, 1981. The 10 year Treasury yield is now 2.406%. That is one heck of a bull market!

(Bloomberg) — The 30-year-old bull market in bonds looks to be ending with a bang.

The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index lost 4 percent in November, the deepest slump since the gauge’s inception in 1990. Bonds in Europe extended declines with their U.S. peers as OPEC’s agreement on Wednesday to cut oil production added to prospects of higher inflation. The reflation trade has been driving markets since Donald Trump’s presidential election win due to promises of tax cuts and $1 trillion in infrastructure spending. All this has prompted investors to dump debt that was offering near-record-low yields and pile into stocks.

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Exposed As A “Putin Stooge”, Russia Obliges Paul Craig Roberts’s Request for Passport… Developing

Putin watches the latest fictional drama unfolding inside the United States – the scourge of “fake news.”

Putin watches the latest fictional drama unfolding inside the United States – the scourge of “fake news.”

shtfplan.com / Mac Slavo / December 1st, 2016

Fake News has become an epidemic; and treason, espionage and an aversion to the collapse of American prosperity and dignity has taken over the people of the Internet, bewildered by all the disinformation that flows from it.

Just a short time ago, the Washington Post, going off an unverified source on the Internet, outed some 200 covert propaganda agents for Russia. Some, the CIA-tied paper imagined, were working directly for the remnants of the KGB; others were dupes and stooges for Russian influence. Some had just seen reports on RT and other non-Western media outlets. Oh my…

Plagued by ideas and loose facts, a covert cell of “alternative media journalists” have – apparently – betrayed their country by bucking mainstream media talking points and daring to defy the unspoken rules about pointing out the naked empire in which they live.

Given that Hillary was cheated out of her rightful position by foreign hackers with implicit Eastern bloc footprints (fact), and that Russia interfered with the election results to put in their puppet Trump (also fact), it is apparent that Putin’s post-KGB network has been quite successful.

Among those revealed to be aligned with the politics of the former Soviet sphere – apart from this site, SHTFplan.com – is a dangerous loose cannon who has advocated for so-called peaceful relations between the U.S. and Russia and also talked badly about the neocons quietly operating the shadow government. Fortunately, he has now been outed, and the world is a safer place.

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Hollande Announces He Will Not Run For Re-election As French President

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Dec 1, 2016 2:24 PM

With almost 90% of the nation disapproving of him, it hardly a surprise that French President Hollande just told the nation that “for the good of his country” he will not run for Presidency in 2017 saying he was “conscious of the risks” a candidacy would have caused.

The unprecedented decision was driven by his historically low popularity ratings.

“Power and the exercise of power have not made lose my lucidity. And today, I am conscious of the risks that would create my candidacy for the majority,” he said in a solemn televised address on Thursday evening. “Therefore I have decided not to run for president for president”

He has had some of the worst approval ratings for a president in modern French history.

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The OPEC Deal: Here Are the Details

financialsense.com / OIL PRICE / 12/01/2016

Oil prices surged more than 8 percent on Wednesday as OPEC shocked the world and reached an agreement to cut production. If OPEC members succeed in implementing the deal, set to take effect in January, it could erase the global surplus in an instant.

“The sentiment generally is optimistic and positive,” Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih said before the final meeting on Wednesday. “Any production-restraint agreement has to be distributed in an equitable way. We are getting close.” Oil prices skyrocketed on his comments and on the news that a deal was within reach.

Still, there was a lot of confusion right down to the last minute, with some news outlets reporting a deal had been reached while others said that the details had not actually been agreed to, just the broader outline. Iraq, in particular, was a question mark, with reports saying that Iraqi officials were still disputing the “secondary sources” data well into the afternoon on Wednesday, even as oil prices were posting huge gains. Negotiations dragged on through the day, with only snippets of details emerging from reporters in Vienna.

In the end, OPEC agreed to cut its collective output down to 32.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), a cut of about 1.2 mb/d from October levels. But they leveraged those cuts to bring some key non-OPEC producers on board, including Russia, for an addition cut of about 600,000 barrels per day. Russia alone will cut 300,000 barrels per day. Asked about the non-OPEC contribution, OPEC President Mohammed Al-Sada said that he is confident that they “can get 600,000 barrels per day out of them…maybe more.”

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Gas Is Going to $6 a Gallon- OPEC Part of Plot to Collapse US Economy

thecommonsenseshow.com / By Dave Hodges December 1st, 2016

In response to Donald Trump’s election, OPEC is aiding the globalists in paralyzing the US economy with increased oil price that the fragile US economy simply cannot handle.

The reasons and the implications for this action are contained in the following video.

SOURCE

Live Stream: Donald Trump Speaks At Carrier Plant In Indiana

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Dec 1, 2016 1:55 PM

After securing a deal to save 1,100 jobs at a Carrier plant in Indiana from being exported to Mexico, Trump is set to kick off his Midwest “Thank You Tour” with a speech there which is expected to get started around 2pm EST.

As we pointed out earlier this morning, Trump’s deal reached with Carrier keeps 1,100 jobs in the U.S. in return for $700,000 in annual tax breaks for a period of 10 years.  Per the Wall Street Journal, the heating and air conditioning company will also invest about $16 million into a furnace plant in Indianapolis that it had previously planned to close and move to Mexico.

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The Great Unwind Unravels Hottest Rental Markets in the US

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter /  

Now in San Francisco, New York, Boston, Chicago, Washington DC, and perhaps a city near you.

Averaged out across the US, asking rents for apartments still rose in November on a year-to-date basis, though more slowly than before, with the median asking rent for a one-bedroom up 1.8% and for a two-bedroom up 2.2%, according to Zumper’s National Rental Price Index. In July, rents had still been up over 4% year-to-date. Since then, they’ve started ticking down on a monthly basis. But averages can cover up more than they reveal.

On a city-by-city basis, a different scenario emerges, with rents going totally crazy in some la-la lands, as if it were still the summer of 2015, and in other cities, including the three most expensive rental markets in the US, rents are coming down hard.

In San Francisco, the number one most ludicrously expensive rental market in the US, rents have now sagged for the fifth month in a row. Asking rent for a median one-bedroom fell to $3,330. That’s still a lot of moolah: $40,000 a year for a small, very average apartment. But that’s down 9.3% from the peak of the rental bubble in October 2015.

The median asking rent for a two-bedroom dropped to $4,500. So $54,000 a year. That’s down 6.8% from a year ago, and down 10% from the October 2015 peak, when landlords were asking $5,000 a month, or $60,000 a year, according to Zumper. Back then, rents had soared 11% from the prior year. Those kinds of double-digit rent increases were common. Hence the local term, “Housing Crisis,” when households with median incomes cannot afford to rent a median one-bedroom apartment.

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The Elite Are Now In The Process Of Making Their Next Move – Episode 1141b

X22Report, Published on Dec 1, 2016

Jill Stein recounts are hitting road blocks. The Ohio attacker has no link to terror groups. The push is on to convince the public that Russia is cyber attacking the US. Hollande is not going to run for a second term. Ukraine continually is saying that Russia is invading. Russia placing defensive weapons in Crimea when Ukraine begins its missile drills.Putin warns that if the world does not come together it could be catastrophic.Russian and the Syrian opposition are now in secret meeting without the US to talk about peace. The elite are now in the process of using Iran to push their next plan of pushing the US into war.

Meet The Man Who Made The OPEC Deal Possible

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Dec 1, 2016 1:43 PM

Going into the Algiers OPEC meeting in late September, the prevailing sentiment among the analyst community was that there is no way any deal will get done: after all there was no secret that the recent animosity between Iran and Saudi Arabia had recent reached unprecedented levels, with both side directly involved across from each other in the Syrian proxy war.

However, the deal did happened, surprising virtually everyone, and based on a new Reuters report, it was thanks to one man.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was the mediator who played a crucial role in helping OPEC rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia set aside differences to forge the cartel’s first deal with non-OPEC Russia in 15 years.

The interventions ahead of Wednesday’s OPEC meeting came at key moments from Putin, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani, OPEC and non-OPEC sources said. According to Reuters, Putin’s role as intermediary between Riyadh and Tehran was pivotal, and is a “testament to the rising influence of Russia in the Middle East since its military intervention in the Syrian civil war just over a year ago.

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GDPNow Sunk to 2.4% Yesterday, Up to 2.9% Today, Was 3.6% on November 23

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / December 1, 2016 

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for fourth quarter GDP stands at 2.9% following today’s economic reports.

The November 23 high of 3.6% collapsed all the way to 2.4% yesterday, but thanks to construction spending is back up to 2.9% today.

Still, that’s quite a drop in eight days.

GDP Now: November 30

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on November 30, down from 3.6 percent on November 23. The forecast of the combined contributions of real net exports and real inventory investment to fourth-quarter growth fell from 0.61 percentage points to 0.18 percentage points after last Friday’s advance economic indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 3.0 percent to 2.2 percent after this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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How To Win The “War On Gold”

milesfranklin.com / by Andrew Hoffman / Dec 1, 2016

Oh, the tangled web we weave, when we seek to deceive.  And sometimes, when we actually want to help – particularly when referring to vote-seeking politicians.

Case in point, OPEC – which yesterday, pulled off the lie to end all lies in pretending to “cut production,” prompting the “oil PPT”-aided “market reaction it sought.  Thus, enabling it to kick the can a few more months – or perhaps, weeks – before the reality of history’s most oversupplied crude oil market inevitably smashes its elaborate rigging mechanism to pieces.

I was hoping the bitter geopolitical tensions that played out up until the “deal’s” final hours would cause the emotional response of a full-out abandonment of talks; thus, enabling said reality to arrive now.  However, in true OPEC fashion, they for the 22nd time in its long, sordid history agreed to “cut production” – during which, compliance has cumulatively been below 60%.  In other words, if this were actually a genuine “production cut,” the deal would most likely be reneged on anyway; particularly given that non-OPEC nations like Russia and Mexico are involved as well – of which, their cumulative compliance has been even worse.

The “deal” has more holes in it than a bag of Swiss cheese – starting with the “non-OPEC” commitment that hasn’t even been officially agreed upon.  To wit, Russia’s 300,000 barrel per day production cut commitment has neither been agreed to nor based on any official reference point.  And as I discussed earlier this week, Russia has in reality “agreed” to nothing more than a “de facto” cut of the 300,000 barrel per day growth it anticipates in 2017, from today’s all-time high production levels.  As for Mexico, the 150,000 bpd cuts OPEC attributes to it is not only not “agreed to,” but mere hours after the “deal” was announced, Mexico’s state-owned oil company, PEMEX, issued a press release claiming it isn’t planning any output cuts in 2017!

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Jeff Gundlach Warns Yields And Stocks Have Peaked: “The Trump Rally Is Losing Steam”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Dec 1, 2016 1:22 PM

Having predicted the Donald Trump victory, and nailing the upturn in US Treasury yields as well as the concurrent stork market rally, DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach appears to have once again taken the other side of the trade after riding it for the past 3 weeks, and is now considerably less exuberant on Trumponomics.

Speaking to Reuters, Gundlach said that markets could reverse the recent momentum in equities (something they appear to be doing this very moment), and at the very latest by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20, 2017 inauguration.

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DEC 1/HUGE SPREAD BETWEEN SHANGHAI GOLD FIXING AND NY PRICES MAINTAINS IT’S 20 DOLLAR PLUS PREMIUM/GOLD WHACKED AGAIN/COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST AT 401,000 AT ONE YR LOWS AND PROBABLY SIGNALS THE BOTTOM/IN A STARTLING MOVE, CHINA IS CURBING OUTFLOWS OF YUAN: ARE THEY OUT OF “MONEY”/INDUSTRIAL METALS COLLAPSE IN PRICE STARTING IN CHINA LAST NIGHT/GLOBAL LOSES ON BONDS FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS: 2.8 TRILLION DOLLARS/

harveyorganblog.com / by harveyorgan / December 1, 2016

Gold at (1:30 am est) $1166.90 DOWN $3.00

silver  at $16.43:  up 2 cents

Access market prices:

Gold: 1171.50

Silver: 16.52

THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON

The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

THURSDAY gold fix Shanghai

Shanghai morning fix Dec 1 (10:15 pm est last night): $  1188.46

NY ACCESS PRICE: $1169.20 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $19.26

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Shanghai afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   1199.35

NY ACCESS PRICE: 1175.35 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)

HUGE SPREAD 2ND FIX TODAY!!:  $24.00

China rejects NY pricing of gold  as a fraud

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London Fix: Dec 1: 5:30 am est:  $1168.75   (NY: same time:  $1168.15    5:30AM)

London Second fix Dec 1: 10 am est:  $1161.85 (NY same time: $1162.00    10 AM)

 

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Did The Cuban Revolution Die With Castro?

paulcraigroberts.org / Dr. Paul Craig Roberts / December 1, 2016

Did The Cuban Revolution Die With Castro?

I just now heard (afternoon of December 1) on NPR a program with descendants of Cuban exiles celebrating Castro’s death and expressing their disappointment that their older relatives had died previously to Castro and were denied the pleasure of exulting in Castro’s death. The Cuban exiles were the upper class that supported the Batista dictatorship. One of the descendants, a 33-year old Miami schoolteaher, ridiculed Castro’s Cuba because the people did not have Tylenol. It did not occur to the schoolteacher in Miami that the absence of Tylenol was a result of Washington’s embargo of Cuba. It was Washington, not Castro, that denied the Cuban people products, including spare parts for their American cars.

The purpose of the US embargo on the Cuban Revolution was to prevent socialist development in order that when the revolutionaries die off, the American One Percent and crime syndicates can again purchase Cuba and resume the exploitation of the Cuban people.

SOURCE