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Debt Rattle Jul 21 2014: The Best To Hope For

NPC Confiscated still, Washington, DC 1922 / by Raúl Ilargi Meijer / July 21, 2014

I’m sorry, or I guess I am, but I find it hard not to constantly read up on the news about flight MH17 these days, and I let it drown out other things. Obviously, there’s plenty of it available in Dutch media, with much more to drown even that out in the English language press.

For a country the size of Holland, losing 193 people in one go evokes the six degrees of separation. And that makes sense, grief must be shared in order to heal. I just – or think that I should – wish I had more confidence in today’s people’s abilities to make that experience real, instead of to a large extent mass media induced.

And besides, closely connected, who would want to talk about yen and interest rates when lighting strikes so close to home? Which reminds me of why I talk about those things all the time: to try and make as many people as I possible can think about the difference between what they’re being told, and what is actually happening to them and to the world around them.

The aftermath of the plane crash reveals once more, as if there was a need, what an uphill struggle that is. The pre-fab picture of what is supposed to be perceived as ‘them’ and as ‘evil’ goes down hook line and sinker, without hardly anyone asking for a shred of proof; it doesn’t seem to matter one bit.

The enemy is given a face, and a carefully crafted storyline, and we’re off to the horses. You could be excused for being inclined to wonder why they bother to teach people how to read. Perhaps the idea is that it makes the story go down faster…


Malaysian Airlines In Hot Water Again, This Time For Flying Above War-Torn Syria / by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2014 18:26 

Fool me once, shame on you; fly civilains over a war-zone twice, shame on Malaysian Airlines. In what is perhaps the most incredulous news of today (aside from Kerry’s belief that he will make a difference in Gaza) is, as BNO reportsa Malaysia Airlines passenger plane flying from Kuala Lumpur to London flew over Syria on Sunday… The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and other organizations have warned airlines for more than a year to avoid the entire country. “Information from the International Civil Aviation Organization and open source reports of surface-to-air missile firings,” the FAA said in a notice last year, describing the risk to civilian flights as “significant.”


Email from Ukraine Portfolio Manager; Obama Idiocies and Ironies / Mike “Mish” Shedlock  / July 21, 2014

President Obama came out swinging today and issued a Stern Warning to Russia on Isolation in response to the crash of MH17.

 Barack Obama has warned Russia it risks further international isolation if it does not intervene directly with the pro-Russian separatist rebels to “compel them to co-operate” with the investigation into the crash of MH17.

He questioned why the rebels would want to prevent international observers and investigators access to the crash site. “What exactly are they trying to hide?”

He said his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had “direct responsibility” for the actions of the armed men on the ground.

“Russia has extraordinary influence over these separatists,” he said. “No one denies that. Russia has urged them on, Russia has trained them, we know that Russia has armed them with military equipment and weapons including anti-aircraft weapons.”


Global Warming Crowd Now Argue It is Cycles That Mask the Warming Trend? / By Martin Armstrong / July 21, 2014

The Global Warming crowd is now desperately trying to counter-act the data that says they are quite frankly about as credible as the old Y2K crowd back in 2000. The data have clearly shown that they have lied, manipulated, and outright carried out a major fraud upon society. They argue that man has altered the entire planet in just a few decades which is like focusing on a 7 day reaction in a bear market and declaring it’s really a bull market. The theory is totally unsound simply from a realistic research perspective.

The fact that surface temperatures have not warmed over the past 17 years showing that their climate models are unreliable, is now amazingly being refuted with quick new research led by James Risbey. In just a matter of weeks, he is leading the charge demonstrating his clearly predisposed bias. Risbey now excuses their nonsense of models that have overestimated global warming with a slapped together study published in Nature Climate Change asserting that their models actually generate good estimates of recent and past trends provided they also took into account natural variability known as El Nino-La Nina phases in the Pacific. OOPS! Cycles?


James Turk – Historic Shift In The Gold & Silver Markets / July 21, 2014

With continued turmoil in major markets, today James Turk told King World News that we are witnessing a historic shift in the gold and silver markets.  Turk also discussed what the implications of this historic shift in these markets means as well as what investors should expect next.

Turk:  “The big drubbing the precious metals took last week is already pretty much forgotten, Eric.  Both gold and silver stabilized at the support we discussed last Monday, around $1300 for gold and just under $21 for silver.  They have since turned around, and look ready to head higher again.  Today’s strong close is very encouraging….

Continue reading the James Turk interview below…


Police came to wrong address, aimed laser sights at innocent homeowner / by Site Staff in News / July 21, 2014

PORTSMOUTH, VA — When a family residence was disturbed in the middle of the night by men dressed in black rattling doorknobs and aiming red laser sights in the window, a homeowner did what he felt necessary to defend his family. While harming no one, the man’s act of self-defense with a firearm landed him with charges of firing at police officers and put on trial.

* * * * *

Brandon Watson of Portsmouth was watching television late at night when his wife alerted him of intruders on their property on January 3, 2013. The events of that evening would turn their lives upside down.

“Oh my gosh, someone is in the backyard,” Mrs. Watson told her husband.


Hillary Tells EU to Use MH17 Tragedy to Find Alternatives to Gazprom (dollar dumping gas giant) / Activist Post / July 21, 2014

Ah, now the agenda is starting to make a bit more sense. Hillary Clinton doesn’t want a good crisis to go to waste. She told Charlie Rose that her recommendation to the European Union is to take advantage of the shot-down MH17 tragedy to “Immediately accelerate efforts to find alternatives to Gazprom.” 


France Defies US, British Demands To Kill Mistral Sale To Putin… For No / by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2014 17:55

While the theater of Russian sanctions has been streamed to a live, and global, studio audience non-stop in recent weeks, when it comes to money actually walking, the French sale of its amphibious marine warship,the Mistral, to Russia has continued as planned (a $1 billion ship we should add). And it is this intransigence by Paris that piqued the ire of not only the UK but also the US.

First, it was British Prime Minister David Cameron who earlier today “questioned” France’s plan to sell Mistral helicopter carriers to Russia, saying fulfilling such an order would be unthinkable in Britain after the downing of the Malaysian Airlines plane in Ukraine. When asked about France’s plan to press ahead with a 1.2 billion-euro ($1.66 billion) contract to sell the ships to Russia, Cameron said: “Frankly in this country it would be unthinkable to fulfill an order like the one outstanding that the French have.


Russia Adds 500,000 Ounces Of Gold Reserves In June 2014 / Taki Tsaklanos / July 21, 2014

Based on the latest update of the Russian central bank, it appears that Russia has added another 500,000 ounces of physical gold to their reserves. Total Russian gold reserves now stand at 35,200,000 ounces, which equals 921,35 tonnes. Russia is among the top 8 countries based on the officially reported gold reserves. The following chart, courtesy Sharelynx, shows the increase of Russian gold reserves over the last 8 years. 


California couple faces government threats because lawn is not green enough

Michael Korte with his wife Laura Whitney pose in front of their home. Their lawn has made them the target of local code enforcers. (Source: Keith Birmingham/Pasadena Star-News) / by Site Staff in News / July 20, 2014

GLENDORA, CA — Local code enforcers are threatening a married couple with fines and criminal action because their lawn is not green enough.

City regulators told Laura Whitney-Korte and her husband Michael Korte in a letter that their brown lawn could be a “potential public nuisance problem” and did not fit with the city’s “Pride of the Foothills” image. The letter said that if they didn’t make their privately-owned lawn green that they could face 100-$500 in fines and possible criminal prosecution.

The irony is that the couple thought they were being good citizens by obeying California Governor Jerry Brown’s call to reduce residential water consumption. The state has experienced three years of low rainfall and the governor asked that citizens attempt to use 20% less water.


Saxobank: “Be Warned” Of Delayed Market Reaction To “Escalation Of Global Turmoil” / by Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist of Saxobank / 07/21/2014 17:16

There are causes worth dying for, but none worth killing for” – Albert Camus

The world is increasingly becoming engaged in civil wars and general turmoil where Camus’ words could and should play a central but never will. This article is one of the hardest to write as war is never about right or wrong. They are per definition always wrong and extremely personal and emotional. The fact is, however, that we need to put “the risk of wars” into our macro outlook as they are increasing not only in intensity but also in the numbers of casualties.

I will not condone anyone or any party involved in the present conflicts – I learned my hard lesson advocating the removal of Saddam Hussein, only to learn that his successors are just as bad. Therefore, Camus’ words will remain my mantra.

The simplest way to “measure” geopolitical risk is to look at the price of energy. Energy is everything for a macro economist as it’s a tax on the economy when high, and a discount when low. High energy consumption levels makes it a critical part of any projection but despite this, energy assumptions are often exogenous (given!).

Think about this: Everything you did this morning involved energy consumption: Waking up to your smart phone (charging overnight), putting on the coffee, pouring the cold milk from the fridge, taking a shower, driving the car to work and walking into your air-conditioned office. Likewise, the rest of your day will be one big consumption of energy. The world’s energy resources are primarily extracted from “volatile” or underdeveloped regions, creating a real risk of disruption of supply. Herein lies a clear and quantifiable risk.

The way I measure this geopolitical risk is through measuring the spread between the 5th contract of WTI crude oil and the first contract.


New Video in NYPD Chokehold Death Surfaces, 2 Officers and 4 EMTs on “Desk Duty” / Lily Dane / July 21st, 2014

Three days ago, we covered the tragic story of a man who died after being placed in a chokehold by one of the NYPD’s finest.

There are important updates in the senseless death of Eric Garner, a NY resident who died during an altercation with officers over alleged sales of untaxed cigarettes.

From the Huffington Post:

Another video has surfaced online of Eric Garner, a New York man who died after anNYPD officer put him in a chokehold in broad daylight on Thursday.

In the new video, Staten Island resident, 43-year-old Garner, appears unconscious or dead as officers stand around him, keeping him rolled onto his side.


How Effective Have The Fed’s QE Programs Been? / Lance Roberts / July 21, 2014

In the most recent newsletter, I discussed this year’s rise in the markets and the fact that all of the gains have occurred during some of the historically weakest months of the year.  I also noted a few interesting facts:

  • 100% of the year-to-date returns were contained within roughly 50% of trading weeks. (15 positive/14 negative weeks)
  • 78.5% of the year-to-date gains have occurred since May 20th.
  • 100% of the gains for the year have occurred since April.

The reason for the rise, of course, is the same as it has been seen 2009 which has been almost solely due to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing liquidity injections into the financial markets. The chart below shows three things from the beginning of 2014:


Russia Says Has Photos Of Ukraine Deploying BUK Missiles In East, Radar Proof Of Warplanes In MH17 Vicinity / by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2014 09:45

Ukraine hasn’t said how it immediately knew rebels downed Malaysian plane, notes the Russian Foreign Ministry, as it unveils 10 awkward questions for Ukraine (and perhaps the US ‘snap judgment’) to answer about the MH17 disaster. However, what is perhaps more concerning for the hordes of finger-pointers is that:


Obviously, if there is proof that this is so, aside from CIA-created YouTube clips, these would deal another unpleasant blow to US foreign policy.

The Russian defense ministry during its press conference which concluded minutes ago:


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Cap, Cap, Cap / July 21, 2014

Gold and silver had the lid slammed all day, although the miners recovered nicely from an early morning smackdown.

The next Comex option expiration will be next Monday.


European Banks Begin to Sweat As ECB Promises Scalps / Michael Krieger / Jul 21, 2014

The more I’ve thought about potential solutions to the gigantic mess we have found ourselves in as a species, the more I have come to believe we need to break apart into a vast multitude of city-states. The revolutionary concept of America in the first place was this idea of “self-governance,” something we do not posses an iota of in this day and age. As was noted recently in an academic paper published by Princeton and Northwestern, these United States have mutated into nothing short of an oligarchy. In fact, the study demonstrated that the will of the people has essentially zero impact on legislation whatsoever.

 In centuries prior, the idea of “representative-democracy” in which people elect people to represent their interests in a far off capital seemed like a reasonable solution to a very real problem. Information took a very long time to get from one place to another, so you had to trust someone else to essentially negotiate for you on issues of national significance. Moreover, in such a disconnected world, centralization was not only more efficient, it seemed like the only way. As such, things became highly centralized, so much so that things have now morphed into a global oligarchy that wields almost total power. Meanwhile, the billions of plebs have no say whatsoever in the affairs that govern their lives; including whether they will be financially secure, posses any civil liberties at all or end up in jail for a wide litany of non-violent “crimes.”

With the incredible tools we now possess, thanks primarily to the Internet, we no longer need centralization of government. Nor do we really need representatives to vote for us on the issues that most greatly affect out lives. As any American understands, the diversity of cultural, economic, and political sentiments vary greatly throughout the land. It’s not just the obvious ones, such as the differences between “northerners” and “southerners,” but wide discrepancies exists within states themselves. For example, Austin is nothing like much of the rest of Texas, and the Denver/Boulder area where I live is very distinct from much of the rest of Colorado. The examples are simply too many to list, but I am of the belief that people are capable of, and should be free to, decide the most important things that affect their lives at a local level (with the exception of obvious things such as violence or aggression toward one another).


Oil Jumps As Stocks Dump-And-Pump But Close Lower / by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2014 16:06

Equity prices tumbled early on – giving up all Friday’s gains – before rampaging phoenix-like (thanks to an AUDJPY driven short squeeze) back to ‘unch’ after rumors of ceasefire discussions in Israel rolled around trading desks. Oil – it appears – was looking at the death-toll (and the fact that Hamas can only accept a deal that denies Israel’s existence) and soared back towards $105 (its 2nd biggest day in over a month) notably divergent from stocks. The Russell 2000 was the laggard all day (ramped the most of the lows on the squeeze) and Trannies the leader. Since the MH17 headlines hit, the Nasdaq is the only index green, Treasury yields are -4bps, and oil up almost $4. The USD ended the day unch, 30Y Yield -2.5bps, gold, silver, and copper up modestly, and VIX up 0.5 vols at 12.7. Stocks closed on the weak side.


Snowden Advocates Anti-NSA Technology / By Martin Armstrong / July 21, 2014

Edward Snowden addressed the hacking conference in NYC known as HOPE (Hackers On Planet Earth) to focus development of easy-to-use technologies to subvert government surveillance programs around the globe. He is advocating technology that would allow people to communicate anonymously and encrypt their messages. You can bet the NSA would love to have him assassinated for they cannot grasp that what they have done is to turn the USA into the evil empire in the minds of non-Americans. This is precisely why Athens fell because they became arrogant and authoritative toward their allies. Just reverse the role. How would the Americans react if all of their personal phone calls, emails, and Google searches were being collected by Russia and the US was powerless to stop it. What goes around – comes around.


The Ambitious Plan to Break California into 6 States – A Model for the Future? / By Don Quijones / July 21, 2014

Don Quijones, freelance writer, translator in Barcelona, Spain. Raging Bull-Shitis his modest attempt to challenge the wishful thinking and scrub away the lathers of soft soap peddled by political and business leaders and their loyal mainstream media. This article is a Wolf Street exclusive.

According to reports along the grapevine, senior European bankers have begun sweating buckets this week – and not because of the harsh heat of high summer. The reason is fear – fear of what could happen as battalions of suited and booted financial auditors and regulators take up temporary residence at the headquarters of the continent’s biggest banks.

The new and no doubt far from welcome guests belong to the supervisory council of the European Central Bank. Their mission? To conduct the most expansive and exhaustive stress test ever conducted of the euro zone’s 132 biggest banks. Granted, given the outrageous failure of previous editions of European stress test to even detect the massive hemorrhaging on the balance sheets of Bankia and Dexia, just months before they suffered fatal financial embolisms, the bar is not exactly high.

This time around, however, the ECB faces a new dilemma. Should it prove too strict, it could destabilize a European banking sector that has only just begun to show the first signs of recovery – at least according to the mainstream narrative. If, on the other hand, it isn’t strict enough, or allows itself to be influenced by national interests (as has been the case to date), its ability to adequately monitor Europe’s “fragile” (read: crumbling) banking system could be called into question.


SSDD / by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2014 13:41

In awfully familiar sense of deja vu, at 1300ET on the dot, “most shorted” stocks were ignited into a vertical short squeeze by a rampfest in AUDJPY… the only problem… credit markets are not playing along…Trannies are the best performers (almost back to unch) with Russell lagging (though ramping most aggressively).


The Energy Hidden Agenda? / By Martin Armstrong / July 21, 2014

We are getting info from reliable sources that there may be another layer to the USA v Russian conflict. Just as the entire Syrian agenda was to arm terrorists to topple the Syrian government in order to push through a pipeline to cut off the energy monopoly in Europe held by Russia, we may be actually seeing another motive here. The projections of fracking technology that the USA will become a net exporter of energy has set the stage for another perhaps covert move – sanctions against Russia to open the European market for energy. In this new war of words and sanctions against Russia, it is the Americans who seem to be marching either totally brain-dead, or with another energy secret agenda. This very will may be all about one thing -:taking the Russian energy market from them. To turn off Russia as a competitor, the Russian president is to be internationally isolated. The shooting down of flight MH17 is playing into this agenda and comes precisely at the right moment to aid the U.S. strategy on energy. We will keep you advised on this matter.


Derivatives Meltdown Part 2 + Let’s See How Obama/Kerry Respond To This… / David Kranzler / July 21, 2014

[Update on MH17]:  It’s starting to not look so good for the Ladies who doth protest too much (Obama/Kerry/Biden/Feinstein/McCain/etc).  Russia has satellite images showing Ukrainian troops deploying the type of missile involved and wonders why the U.S. won’t release satellite photos from a U.S. satellite that was directly overhead at the time, among other questions raised by Russia:   10 Questions From Russia For Obama

Oops – Obama pisses off China on MH17 now: China Condems Obama’s Response to MH17. That’s not good, given that China is America’s largest lender and enables the hoi polloi here to borrow and spend…


Netflix Meets EPS, Beats On International Subs, Guides To Lower Q3 EPS And Domestic Subs / by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2014 16:45 

Moments ago Netflix reported Q2 Revenue and EPS which were precisely in line with Wall Street estimates, at $1.34 billion and $1.15 EPS. None of this mattered, because just like Amazon, nobody cares about where NFLX is now, everyone is much more focused on where it will be at some indefinite point in the future, with an emphasis on what many believe is virtually unlimited subscriber growth both in the US, but primarily, in the international market. Here is what NFLX reported to its subs growth.

  • Paid Domestic Subscribers rose to 35.085 million. The sequential increase of 708K was the smallest since Q2 2012. The Y/Y increase of 22.6%, likewise, was the weakest since 2012. Total streaming adds increased by 570K, just above the expected 540 increase. What’s more troubling is that NFLX predicted that Q3 total domestic streaming adds will increase by 1.33 million, below the Wall Street estimate of 1.4 million.
  • Paid International Subscribers was the silver lining: it was here that NFLX reported that total subs rose to 13.8 million, an increase of 1.118 million, above the 0.97 million expected. And improving the international trend, NFLX hopes that in Q3 international subscribers will rise by a whopping 2.36 million, far above the 1.74 million expected.


REALIST NEWS – WebBot IDR Report Summary July 2014

jsnip4, Published on Jul 21, 2014

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Miles Gloriosus / 21 JULY 2014

There is little economic news this week. The new weekly economic calendar is below.

The drivers this week are therefore likely to be on earnings reports, and the geopolitical issues especially with regard to the Ukraine.

Our glorious financial warriors are riding high in the markets, which are otherwise very dull and quiet.

Remember, thou art a man. Memento mori.


With ISIS Now Controlling 35% Of Syria And Most Of Its Oil Fields, Iraq Issues An Ultimatum To The US / by Tyler Durden on 07/21/2014 14:3

Remember when the extremist Al Qaeda spinoff ISIS (or, now known as Islamic State following the formation of its own caliphate in the middle of Iraq and Syria) was still a “thing” two weeks ago? In this case out of sight does not mean out of mind, and while the world has found a new story line to follow in the middle east with the war between Israel and Gaza, now in its 14th day – whenever it is not busy responding to emotional appeals about the MH 17 crash – ISIS has continued to expand and as Al Arabiya reports it “is now in control of 35 percent of the Syrian territory following a string of victories, the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Friday.”

What’s more troubling is that ISIS holdings now include nearly all of Syria’s oil and gas fields. While these are hardly significant on a global scale, they certainly allow ISIS to preserve its self-sustaining and self-funding status.


John Embry – This Is The Most Dangerous Period In 69 Years / July 21, 2014

Today a man who has been involved in the financial markets for 50 years warned this is the most dangerous period in 69 years.  Below is what John Embry, who is business partners with billionaire Eric Sprott, had to say in this fascinating interview.

Embry:  “I honestly believe this is the most dangerous period in my lifetime, particularly from a geopolitical perspective.  This is even more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis.  I remember that crisis like it was yesterday….

Continue reading the John Embry interview below…


What the Media Won’t Report About Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 / by ron paul / July 20, 2014

Just days after the tragic crash of a Malaysian Airlines flight over eastern Ukraine, Western politicians and media joined together to gain the maximum propaganda value from the disaster. It had to be Russia; it had to be Putin, they said. President Obama held a press conference to claim – even before an investigation – that it was pro-Russian rebels in the region who were responsible. His ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, did the same at the UN Security Council – just one day after the crash!
While western media outlets rush to repeat government propaganda on the event, there are a few things they will not report.
They will not report that the crisis in Ukraine started late last year, when EU and US-supported protesters plotted the overthrow of the elected Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych. Without US-sponsored “regime change,” it is unlikely that hundreds would have been killed in the unrest that followed. Nor would the Malaysian Airlines crash have happened. 
The media has reported that the plane must have been shot down by Russian forces or Russian-backed separatists, because the missile that reportedly brought down the plane was Russian made. But they will not report that the Ukrainian government also uses the exact same Russian-made weapons.


Russia Touts South Stream Pipeline As Europe’s Gas Lifeline / by Andy Tully via / 07/21/2014 14:59

Russia is mounting a major publicity campaign in Europe for its proposed South Stream gas pipelinein an apparent effort to reassure its EU customers that they can rely on Russian gas for the indefinite future.

The reason for Moscow’s public relations efforts is the continuing unrest in Ukraine. EU countries now get about 30 percent of their gas from Russia, half of it piped through Ukraine. Twice, in 2006 and 2009, that flow has been interrupted. Gas flows to Europe through Ukraine are intact today, but that status may change depending on whether relations between Russia and Ukraine improve or decline.

Meanwhile, Russia is working on an alternative that it says will satisfy everyone, except perhaps Ukraine:the South Stream pipeline, which would bypass Ukraine, instead crossing the Black Sea into Central and Southern Europe.

On July 17, a major Italian newspaper, La Repubblica, published a full-page article based on information from Russia Beyond The Headlines (RBTH), an agency of the Russian government. The article bore the headline, “South Stream On Its Way to Going Ahead.”

The article is part of a broader Russian public relations effort elsewhere in Europe promoting South Stream as a source of 63 billion cubic meters of gas to EU customers per year, meeting 15 percent of Europe’s current needs.


REALIST NEWS – More Regarding Plane Shot Down

jsnip4, Published on Jul 21, 2014