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What Blows Up First, Part 3: Really, Deutsche Bank?

dollarcollapse.com / John Rubino / SEPTEMBER 26, 2016

Calling Wall Street’s banks stupid and dangerous is like calling the sun “big and warm.” It’s a clear understatement of an obvious fact. The same goes for calling Japan and China economically clueless. Their actions pretty much guarantee that they’ll ultimately enter some sort of death spiral.

Germany, meanwhile, is many things, but clueless and stupid aren’t normally on the list. So why is that country’s biggest bank causing nightmares for global policy makers and investors? Because – in a sign of just how close we are to the end of the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking era – Deutsche Bank is behaving in ways that would make executives at Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns step back in alarm. It seems, for example, to have become a derivatives junkie. Like a Vegas high-roller who can’t stop raising his bets, DB’s exposure to this unregulated, largely off-balance-sheet market now exceeds not just its host country’s GDP, but that of its entire continent:

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Loss Of FBI Reputation Irredeemable: James Comey Will Resign

zerohedge.com / Via The Daily Bell / Sep 26, 2016 

Fresh proof the FBI’s Hillary email probe was a joke … Yet another surprise revelation suggests strongly that the FBI’s probe of Hillary Clinton’s e-mail mess was anything but a by-the-book investigation.  House Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) said he learned only Friday that the Justice Department gave immunity deals to Clinton’s former chief of staff, Cheryl Mills, and two other aides. That brings to five the number of Clintonistas who got a pass in exchange for testimony and/or information.

-New York Post

The FBI’s erosion of reputation – taking place this very day and minute as a result of the Clinton email mess –could not have happened to a more deserving operation.

For 75 years, the FBI has terrorized the American public with increasing vigor and brutality. Much of the FBI “crimes” it focuses on – insider trading and the like – weren’t even thought to be criminal a few decades ago.

It is increasingly clear that the drug-dealing prosecuted by the FBI takes place at the highest levels of America’s political office. Enough has been reported (certainly in the alternative media) about Clinton/Bush/CIA cocaine or heroin dealings to generate what may be a believable profile of these operations.

When it comes to white collar banking crime, the American public is increasingly skeptical about the engine of the industry – central banks themselves.

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Dangerous Bubbles In Plain Sight

davidstockmanscontracorner.com / by David Stockman / September 26, 2016

Jesse Felder published an incisive bubble finance chart over the weekend. It is yet another reminder that Janet Yellen and her merry band of money printers are oblivious to the dangerous speculation and valuation excesses that their policies have implanted throughout the financial system.

Relative to disposable income, the value of household financial assets now far exceeds the last two bubble peaks. And that has happened in an economic environment which suggests just the opposite. To wit, valuation multiples and cap rates should be falling owing the fact that the productivity and growth capacity of the US economy has been heading south ever since the turn of the century.

***

What is even more striking about this chart is what’s hidden behind the denominator. Since the eve of the financial crisis in 2007, a rapidly increasing share of DPI (disposable personal income) has been accounted for by the explosive growth of transfer payments.

Needless to say, transfer payments do not represent newly produced income that can be capitalized into the value of aggregate societal wealth. By definition, transfer payments are extracted via taxation from the incomes of current producers—–or via taxation of future incomes if they are funded with increased government debt.

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Obama Used a Fictitious Name to Communicate with Hillary on Her Private Server

armstrongeconomics.com / by Martin Armstrong / Sep 27, 2016

Once a politician, always a politician. They are just incapable of telling the truth. The New York Post, who may become the American version of the British Guardian, has now exposed that Obama used a fake name to communicate with Hillary on her private server because he KNEW what she was doing. While tens of thousands of Clinton’s emails have been made public so far, the government has not released any emails from Obama.

Obama told CBS news that he had no idea that Hillary was using a private email server until it was reported by the New York Times on March 2, 2015. That is clearly an outright lie, and if he were in a private fraud case, he would be criminally charged with her for conspiracy. Hillary’s continuous crime included other parties who may join the plot later and incur joint liability. His use of fictitious names is PROOF that he knew what she was doing was a crime, for he tried to hide his identity as a co-conspirator. This raises the question of whether he will benefit from the Clinton Foundation in the future.

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What A Commodity Trading Legend Is Buying Ahead Of The Next Crisis

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Sep 26, 2016

When a commodity trading guru like Dwight Anderson, founder of the iconic Ospraie Management, has something to say on the market outlook, people tend to listen, especially when he’s consigning the last great commodity bull run to the dustbin of history and buying gold and farmland for the next crisis.

Anderson is the former Tiger Cub, whose Ospraie Management at one time ran the world’s biggest commodity hedge fund, with close to $4 billion at the peak. In what’s billed as a MasterClass of commodity investing, Dwight granted Real Vision a rare ‘one-on-one’ interview. Hosted by macro heavyweight Dan Tapiero, the former Tiger, Duquesne and SAC industry veteran, the interview showcases the factors influencing markets across the commodities spectrum through the perspective of a commodity trading giant.

Below we present a highlight clip of some of Anderson’s key insights, but we urge readers to see the full interview, not just for the astonishing market insights, but to hear Anderson lift the lid on his incredible backstory in the hedge fund business. Dwight relives his early days at Tiger, guided by Julian Robertson and explains why he partnered with Paul Tudor Jones, who would go on to seed Ospraie.

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The Fed is Good for Gold

acting-man.com / Keith Weiner / September 27, 2016

Purveyors of Economic Stability

It’s almost like magic. The Fed can say something, or in the case of this Wednesday it can say nothing, and gold and especially silver get a boost of rocket fuel.

***

Actually, the Fed said both yes to rate hikes—in the future—and no to a rate hike now. This was good, if not for people, at least for gold. Well, if not for gold, at least the price of the metal.

And especially silver. The price of silver had been up sharply on Monday, it inched up on Tuesday, and shot up another 60 cents on Wednesday, the day of the announcement.

We have expressed our view many times that this is not gold or silver going up, but the dollar going down. Measured in grams of silver, the dollar went down from 1.66 last week to end this week at 1.58, -0.08g or -4.8%.

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US Debate Lifts Peso, but Leaves the Dollar Non-Plussed

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / September 27, 2016

The first US Presidential debate may not sway many voters but has lifted the Mexican peso.  The peso, which has fallen by about 1.3% over the past two sessions, has stormed by 1.5% today as the seemingly biggest winner of the debate. Snap polls immediately following the debate gave the edge to Clinton.
Speculators had amassed a near record gross short peso position in the futures market.  It had more than doubled over the past three weeks to 109.9k futures contracts as the polls indicated the contest had tightened markedly since the end of August.   The bears had added 24k contracts alone in the five-day reporting period ending September 20.
We have argued that the bearish case for Mexico for real investors extended well beyond US presidential politics, and note that the peso has been trending lower against the dollar since early Q2.  The market had gotten frothy as the speculative positions showed.  The dollar approached a key psychological MXN20.00 level.  The central bank meets this week, and the market leans toward a 50 bp rate hike.  The dollar fell to a low a little below MXN19.44 in thin early European dealings before rebounding.

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Lawmakers Vow Override of Obama’s 9/11 Victims Bill Veto

zerohedge.com / by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com / Sep 26, 2016 7:05 PM

Throughout Obama’s presidency, his vetoes have always survived Congressional challenges. That his first might be a bill about Saudi Arabia reflects waning Saudi influence in lobbying Congress to get their way, and what would likely have once been a very safe veto is now at serious risk.

Obama’s Friday veto of the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA) aims to block a bill that would allow family members of 9/11 victims to sue Saudi Arabia in American courts. The House and Senate both passed JASTA unanimously, and many in both parties are expressing confidence they have the votes for an override of the veto.

The House was widely expected to override easily, but Sen. Chuck Schumer (D – NY) insisted that the Senate too would “quickly” override Obama’s veto, insisting that the Saudis must be held accountable if the courts find they were culpable in 9/11.

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Famous Last Words – Deutsche Bank: “We Don’t Need A Bailout”

investmentresearchdynamics.com / By Dave Kranzler / 

“[The] share price is low but that is not what is worrying us and that is not what we are looking at. What is really important to us is our credit story which is very strong, it is fundamentally strong.” – Jorg Eigendorf, head of communications at DB on CNBC (sourced from Zerohedge)

“The credit story is strong?”  To begin with, I’m not sure what the head of communications is doing on bubblevision talking about “credit.”  If he understood the meaning of the words he was regurgitating from script, he would not have made that statement if he were under oath.

From a German politician (as reported in Zerohedge):  “you can’t compare Deutsche Bank with Lehman. The bank is in a position to get out of this situation on its own.”  As the adage goes:  A rumor is confirmed as fact once that rumor is denied three times by politicians…

DB stock is down over 7% today.  It’s likely the primary reason that the SPX is down 13 points as I write this (that plus the dismal new home sales report).  DB stock has hit another all-time low.  DB has lost 51% of its market value this year.  The BKX bank stock index is down only 4% this year.  The relative performance isn’t just a red flag, it’s a “code red” five-alarm danger signal.

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The Dying Middle Class

acting-man.com / Bill Bonner / September 27, 2016

Largest Theft in History

As expected, Ms. Yellen smiled last week, announcing no change to the Fed’s extraordinary policies. For the last eight years, she has been aiding and abetting the largest theft in history.

Thanks to ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing), every year, about $300 billion is transferred from largely middle-class savers to largely better-off speculators, financial asset owners, and the biggest borrowers during that period – corporations and the government.

The financial press, nevertheless, finds something vaguely heroic about enabling the grandest larceny ever. Bloomberg:

“Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen braved mounting opposition inside and outside the U.S. central bank and delayed an interest-rate increase again to give the economy more room to run.”

The U.S. economy is barely limping along. As we noted last week, when you adjust nominal GDP growth by a more accurate measure of inflation – David Stockman’s “Flyover CPI” – you see that the economy is actually in recession. Room to run? It is backing up!

Bloomberg continues its brain-dead coverage:

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Stocks Wipe Out Post-Fed Gains As Deutsche Dread Batters US Banks

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Sep 26, 2016 4:03 PM

“Contained”…

VIX spiked to 14.5, its 100-day moving average, ahead of tonight’s debate…

As Deutsche Bank contagion concerns…

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The Real Reason Oil & Gas Companies are Going Bankrupt: Financing Fracking Projects Became a Ponzi Scheme

wolfstreet.com / By Dave Forest, Oilprice.com •  

The reason oil companies have gone bankrupt over the past few years is not due to “historically low oil and natural gas prices” as stated in this article.

Here is a long term inflation adjusted price chart:

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US Government Desperate In The Middle East & Moving Closer To Creating A Major Event – Episode 1085b

X22Report, Published on Sep 26, 2016

Multiple shootings in multiple cities, US Government and corporate media creating the atmosphere of chaos in the US. US sanctions a Chinese company that was doing business with NK. Duterte is now moving closer to China and Russia and further away from the US. US army bringing in about 2,000 troops to Germany. Russia moving nuclear weapons to its borders. Yemen moves its central bank away from the Houthi controlled areas. Syrian government has almost captured the entire city of Aleppo. US now pushing Russia, they want Russia out the UNSC. The US has nothing left, they will now need to create an event.

Someone Has Quietly Put On “The Trump Hedge”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Sep 26, 2016 5:52 PM

As a very observant Charlie McElligott of RBC points out, lost in a sleepy Friday morning session, there was a sneaky trade in November Fed Funds Futs (FFX), where somebody bot 9962 Calls in what was essentially a ‘Trump Hedge’ lotto-ticket that pays in the event that the FOMC were to LOWER the Fed Funds rate…thus, quite notable. 

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The Unintended Consequences of These New SEC Rules Could Kill the Rally – or Worse

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Shah Gilani • 

Starting Oct. 14, 2016, institutional prime money market funds won’t be able to price themselves at a constant $1.00 a share.

New SEC rules will require these giant funds to value shares based on actual market prices for underlying assets in their portfolios.

That means their per-share prices will fluctuate on a daily basis.

While that’s not exactly good news, it gets worse.

The rules allow funds to charge up to a 2% redemption fee when investors want out.

But the killer is, funds can put up “gates” that prevent investors from selling shares.

Besides problems investors will have with the new rules, unintended consequences affecting companies and municipalities that rely on selling their commercial paper and other short-term debt instruments to these big funds could end up killing the market.

Here’s what you need to know and what to do…

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Economic Growth Requires More Than Low Interest Rates

mises.org / Frank ShostakPeter Stellios / Sept 26, 2016

Many commentators and economic experts are of the view that the Federal Reserve is running out of tools to keep the economy going given the very low level of interest rates. It is also argued that despite a steep downtrend in the policy rate since 1980, the underlying growth of the US economy has been following a down trend.

This must be contrasted with the previous period when the underlying trend in the federal funds rate was heading up while the underlying growth of economic activity followed a rising trend.

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Houston Shooter Nathan Desai Found To Be Wearing Nazi Paraphernalia At Time Of Shooting

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Sep 26, 2016 4:45 PM

Update 3:  According to a local NBC affiliate, the gunman who injured nine people this morning in a Houston shooting was reportedly wearing a “an antique German uniform with Swastikas on it” and was also found to have Nazi paraphernalia in his car and home.  Of the nine people injured during the shooting, 2 remain in serious/critical condition in Houston hospitals.

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Hillary “Hires Psychologists To Undermine Trump”… Just As CIA Does In Assessing Egos of Foreign Adversaries

Thinking Like Trump: The idea for this illustration came from viewing Peter Yang’s iconic portrait of Trump as the Thinker. Credit where it is due.

shtfplan.com / Mac Slavo / September 26th, 2016

Hillary Clinton is preparing for the presidential debates in a unique way.

She isn’t focusing on policy, talking points, or on warming up her notoriously cold and unapproachable personality in order to connect with voters and foster ‘trust.’

No, she is preparing to attack Trump’s personality. These debates are about to become a battle of egos at the psychological warfare level.

That much is no surprise, but she is taking things pretty far.

Advisors have been feeding Hillary experts in psychology hired to assess Donald Trump’s personality, pick out his inner fears and weak points, and brain storm about the possibilities of exploiting any mistakes he might make.

As Business Insider reports:

The New York Times reported in August that Hillary Clinton’s campaign brought in psychology experts to help her prepare to debate Donald Trump. Which is weird, because that’s not really what psychologists do.

Here is the relevant part of the Times’ article (emphasis mine):

Hillary Clinton’s advisers are … seeking insights about Mr. Trump’s deepest insecurities as they devise strategies to needle and undermine him … at the first presidential debate … Her team is also getting advice from psychology experts to help create a personality profile of Mr. Trump to gauge how he may respond to attacks and deal with a woman as his sole adversary on the debate stage. They are undertaking a forensic-style analysis of Mr. Trump’s performances in the Republican primary debates, cataloging strengths and weaknesses as well as trigger points that caused him to lash out in less-than-presidential ways.

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Draghi Increases Risk of Global Trade Collapse With Brexit Tough Talk

mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / September 26, 2016

The ECB has enough on its hands already: Collapsing Italian banks, a Deutsche Bank derivatives mess, massive Target2 imbalances, and the rise of eurosceptics like Beppe Grillo in Italy and Marine le Pen in France.

Nonetheless, ECB president Mario Draghi decided there was room on his plate for yet another problem: trade politics.

Please consider Draghi Urges EU to Take Tough Line with UK in Brexit Talks.

Mario Draghi has become the latest European official to push for the EU to take a tough line in negotiations with the UK over Brexit, saying Britain should be refused access to the single market unless it sticks to rules on free movement of labour.

“Regardless of the type of relationship that emerges between the European Union and the United Kingdom, it is of utmost importance that the integrity of the single market is respected,” Mr Draghi said, speaking at the European Parliament on Monday. “Any outcome should ensure that all participants are subject to the same rules.”

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Stunning University Of Kansas ‘Safe Space’ Vs. ‘Free Speech’ Meeting Caught On Tape

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Sep 26, 2016 6:40 PM

Ever wondered just what happens when the immovable object of safe-space-demanding social justice warriors collides with the irresistible force of free-speech-seeking American students? Wonder no longer…

On Thursday night protestors at Kansas University (KU) hijacked a Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) meeting,reportedly unleashing a virulent tirade against the conservative students, providing a glimpse into the crazy arguments of the far Left.

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Reports Of The TED Spread’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Jesse Felder • 

On Friday, the Wall Street Journal officially ran an obituary for the TED spread proclaiming: “The Ted Spread Is Dead, Baby. The Ted Spread Is Dead.” The article explains:

This spread charts the difference between the London interbank offered rate and the yield on three-month U.S. Treasury bills. Libor is a dollar-denominated global gauge of private-sector credit strength, particularly that of banks, and three-month bills measure an ultrasafe bet—the U.S. government’s creditworthiness. Ted stands for Treasury-Eurodollar rate, the Eurodollar being the greenback denominated lending reflected in the Libor rate.

For the past year and a half the spread has been creeping higher, rising from 0.2 of a percentage point at the turn of 2015, to 0.653 of a percentage point on Wednesday. That is the highest it has been since May 2009, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, surpassing other moments of extreme stress, like the euro sovereign-debt crisis around 2011.

But there is a problem with that. Looming U.S. regulation of money-market funds has driven Libor higher, meaning that it isn’t quite the indicator that it once was.

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THE GOVERNMENT KNOWS A THIRD OF THE COUNTY’S WATER IS POISONED WITH ERIN BROCKOVICH TOXIN, BUT THEY AREN’T DOING ANYTHING ABOUT IT

thedailysheeple.com / 

Sorry to yell, but HAVE YOU FILTERED YOUR WATER YET?!

If not, you really have to start.

It’s something we all take for granted because its just a basic part of our lives, but what you can’t see in your drinking water can hurt you. And the stories just keep coming out on a near-weekly basis about some new poison found in our water.

We’ve done multiple reports over the years on TDS about all of the nasty surprises lurking in the average American’s tap water, water they don’t just drink but cook with and bathe in.

Reports like this one about how salmon swimming around in estuaries in the northeast were found contaminated with 81 different pharmaceuticalsand drugs. Like all of these articles about the poisonous water found in Flint, Michigan and other cities around the nation.

Your water is on drugs, lots and lots of drugs, and filled with all sorts of nasty chemicals that are harmful to human health even in tiny amounts.

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Brit Bankers Busted For $300 Million Fraud Tied To Hookers & Blow

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Sep 26, 2016 4:50 PM

Investment bankers and hedgies have long had a flare for the excesses in life.  There is, of course, the epic taleof the former Jefferies equity salesman who spent $75k on a Miami bachelor party for one of his clients that included a private jet, limos, dwarf-tossing and exotic dancers.  Or there is the more recent tale of the 31-year-old portfolio manager for Moore Capital, Brett Barna, who threw a wild “Wolf of Wall Street”-style Hamptons party, complete with Champagne, scores of bikini-clad women and costumed gun-toting midgets, and in the process trashed a $20 million mansion.

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Hillary’s Washington McCarthyites Sic the FBI on Donald Trump

davidstockmanscontracorner.com / by Justin Raimondo • 

While we have gotten used to the neo-McCarthyite tactics employed by the Clinton campaign linking Donald Trump to the Kremlin, the whole disgraceful operation has reached a new low with the introduction of US law enforcement agencies into the mix. According to a report by Michael Isikoff – who has become the Judy Miller of this smear campaign – the feds are moving in on the Trump campaign:

“U.S. intelligence officials are seeking to determine whether an American businessman identified by Donald Trump as one of his foreign policy advisers has opened up private communications with senior Russian officials — including talks about the possible lifting of economic sanctions if the Republican nominee becomes president, according to multiple sources who have been briefed on the issue.”

US citizens have no right to question or attempt to change American foreign policy, and any effort to do so will result in the FBI swinging into action:

“The activities of Trump adviser Carter Page, who has extensive business interests in Russia, have been discussed with senior members of Congress during recent briefings about suspected efforts by Moscow to influence the presidential election, the sources said. After one of those briefings, Senate minority leader Harry Reid wrote FBI Director James Comey, citing reports of meetings between a Trump adviser (a reference to Page) and ‘high ranking sanctioned individual’ in Moscow over the summer as evidence of ‘significant and disturbing ties’ between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin that needed to be investigated by the bureau.”

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The Banking System Is Cracking & It’s Only A Matter Of Time Before It Implodes – Episode 1085a

X22Report, Published on Sep 26, 2016