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Gold Market Update

clivemaund.com / CLIVE P. MAUND / November 19, 2017

Gold appeared to break out on Friday, but the situation is contradictory because on its price charts it appears to be in position to begin another upleg within an uptrend, but its COTs are still neutral / bearish at best, and don’t appear to allow much room for a rally, while the dollar Hedgers chart is still calling for the dollar to advance, despite its downturn last week.On gold’s 6-month chart we can see how, after weeks of indecisive sideways movement, it broke sharply higher on Friday, looking like it has aborted the potential Head-and-Shoulders top that we earlier observed. With the rising 200-day moving average having pulled up beneath the price, it is in position for another upleg, especially as the 50-day has dropped back to close up with the price and 200-day, creating a bullish bunching of all three.

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The CALEXIT Connection to Operation Bluebeam

thecommonsenseshow.com / By Dave Hodges / November 19th, 2017

Calexit is the home all major subversion in the United States. This movement has one goal, namely, the overthrow of the US government. The final stage of the overthrow involves something similar to Operation Bluebeam. Here is the story.

SOURCE

Before You Book That Vacation, JPM Warns Multiple Spoilers Are Converging In November

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 19, 2017 4:29 PM

One week ago, Jan Loeys – the person who wrote “The JPMorgan View” for 15 years – announced his exit, as he transitioned from tactical asset allocation to longer-term strategy, and that he would be handing over the authorship to John Normand, and soon Nikos Panigirtzoglou and Marko Kolanovic, but not before summarizing what he has learned in 30 years of investing in a must-read bulletin which he published last week.

In any case, this weekend it was Normand’s turn to regale JPM’s countless retail and institutional clients with a preview of the upcoming key “spoilers” which according to Normand boil down to 3: a reality check on US tax reform, weaker-than-expected China data, and a Russian rethink on extending oil cuts. Not surprisingly, JPM focuses on the first issue, because as Norman writes, “tax overhaul seems the most complicated market driver given its fluid composition and tortuous legislative process.”

By contrast, China’s slowdown looks familiar and was already part of our economists’ baseline; hence, our neutral recommendation on base metals ex aluminum. The November 30th oil producers’ summit is not a drop-dead date for extending their year-old agreement, but we took profits anyway on a long Brent trade last week because oil’s geopolitical premium looked excessive.

For those curious what the largest US bank thinks will be dominant events over the balance of the month, here it is straight from the horse’s mouth.

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Technical Scoop – Weekend Update Nov 19

news.goldseek.com / by David Chapman / 19 November 2017

Weekly Update

“Bubble, bubbles everywhere, and not a drop to drink…yet”

—Willy Wonka, Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory, 1971

–           

“Money….Money, Money makes the world go around”

—Liza Minnelli, Joel Grey, Cabaret, 1972

 

“There is too much money in the world”

—Lawrence Luhring, New York art dealer, on sale at auction of Leonardo da Vinci’s “Salvator Mundi”

Yikes! $450.3 million for Leonardo da Vinci’s “Salvator Mundi” sold on Wednesday night at Christie’s auction, shattering the high for any work of art sold at auction. It far surpassed Picasso’s “Women of Algiers” which fetched $179.4 million at Christie’s in May 2015. It also far surpassed the $127.5 million that Russian billionaire oligarch Dmitry E. Rybolovlev paid for it in 2013. In 1958, the painting sold for £45 because it was believed this was not an authentic da Vinci but merely one done by one of his students. In 2005, an art dealer purchased it for $10,000. There have been numerous questions surrounding its authenticity and the fact that it had at times been restored. The painting dates from around 1500 and is believed to have been commissioned for King Louis XII of France. The current buyer is unknown.

Bubbles, bubbles everywhere. There are bubbles in the stock market, the bond market, the corporate bond market, auto loans, student loans, real estate, government debt, art and collectibles, and yes, Bitcoin! But it also begs the question— why isn’t there a bubble in commodities and especially gold?

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REALIST NEWS – (Livestream 20 mins) Also, Do NOT claim ETH tokens yet

jsnip4, Published on Nov 19, 2017

Bitcoin Soars To Record High Above $8000 After Mugabe Speech

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 19, 2017 3:33 PM

With Bitcoin trading at $13,499 on Golix, the chaotic environment in Zimbabwe has spread to the global price of the cryptocurrency driving it beyond $8000 for the first time in history as President Mugabe fails to resign in a national address following the nation’s coup.

It appears many Zimbabweans have found an alternate way to store/transfer wealth away from Mugabe’s prying (and confiscatory) eyes.

In September we noted the hyperbitcoinization occurring in Zimbabwe. In October, Zimbabwe demand started to impact the global price of the cryptocurrency, and two weeks ago we noted the doubling of the price of Bitcoin in Zimbabwe as uncertainty about the nation’s stability sent citizens into a decentralized currency that was out of Mugabe’s reach.

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Gold-based debit card Glintpay gets started

gata.org / By Emma Dunkley via Financial Times, London / November 19, 2017

The world’s oldest currency is being brought into the digital age with the launch of a debit card and app that will allow people to pay for goods in gold.

Fintech group Glint (http://glintpay.com) has teamed up with Lloyds Banking Group in the UK and MasterCard to create an app that enables people to load credit in various currencies, which can then be used to buy a portion of a physical gold bar. Customers use the app at the checkout to select whether to pay in a currency or gold, before transacting with their MasterCard.

… Dispatch continues below …

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Multifamily Starts Rise 37.4% In October, Largest Increase In 2017 (West Declines 3.70% As Lonzo Ball Forgets How To Shoot)

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Anthony B Sanders / 

Housing starts rose 13.7% MoM in October to 1,290K units SAAR (or 1.29 million). However, the largest share of housing starts were in the 5+ unit (multifamily) category. Multifamily units grew at a rate of 37.4% MoM.

October was the highest growth in 5+ unit starts in 2017.

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Arab League Holds Emergency Session: Iran And “Terrorist” Hezbollah Must Be Stopped

Arab League meeting in Cairo on Sunday. Image source: AFP

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 19, 2017 3:11 PM

Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, in opening remarks to the Arab League today, declared that the kingdom “will not hesitate to defend its national security to keep its people safe” while requesting that joint action be taken to stop Iranian “aggression” and attacks on Arab states. 

Last weekend Saudi Arabia called an emergency session of the Arab League to address what it labeled “Iranian interference” after the bizarre series of events related to MBS’ aggressive internal purge, which included the detention of Lebanese ex-PM Hariri, left the kingdom in an unprecedented state of strife and uncertainty.  The destabilizing events were precipitated by a November 4 attack claimed by Shiite Huthi rebels in Yemen, which the Saudis called a “violation” committed by Iran, though Iran denied that it had anything to do with the rare ballistic missile launch out of Yemen.

Arab foreign ministers from member states met at League headquarters in Cairo on Sunday and in predictable fashion blasted Iran and Hezbollah for sowing instability and discord within Arab countries, citing Iranian “aggression” and expanding influence. The meeting is only the 12th such emergency summit to be held since the Arab League’s founding in 1945 – a fact which hints at Saudi Arabia’s increased desperation to confront Hezbollah while also shifting blame from its own self-made crisis at home.

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‘NOT ACTUALLY GROPING’: NBC’S KASIE HUNT RUNS COVER FOR DEMOCRAT AL FRANKEN

thedailysheeple.com /  VIA 

NBC News corespondent and prominent #MeToo supporter Kasie Hunt ran cover for admitted sexual predator Al Franken on MSNBC Thursday, insisting his groping of journalist Leeann Tweeden is “not actually groping.”

Leanne Tweeden said plainly he groped her and kissed her without her consent, including by shoving his disgusting tongue into her mouth.

“I couldn’t believe it,” Tweeden said. “He groped me, without my consent, while I was asleep.”

NBC’s Hunt evidently knows better.

As Breitbart reports:

Appearing on MSNBC, the left-wing Hunt said, “And then [Franken] took a picture, which his office now says was a joke, that shows him not actually groping, but mock-groping her while she was asleep.”

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The Cabal Doesn’t Care About Law, Agenda Pushed Forward – Episode 1429b

X22Report, Published on Nov 19, 2017

The Senate is pushing to continue the spying on the American public. Mugabe is stepping down as President of Zimbabwe. US officials are meeting in Libya and the are meeting with the UN backed government. Russia arms sales surge in the middle east. The IS now has US night vision goggles. Nikki Haley says that she doesn’t care what the UN says the US will fight on in Syria.

Weinstein Watershed – Here’s A List Of The 42 Men Accused Of Sexual Misconduct (So Far)

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 19, 2017 2:45 PM

Since The New York Times published allegations of sexual harassment and assault against Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein in October, there has been a watershed as multiple men in entertainment, media and politics in the U.S. and beyond face allegations ranging from inappropriate behavior to forced sexual misconduct to rape.

As The Associated press reports, the #MeToo moment is also prompting re-examination of past sexual misconduct claims against powerful men, including Democratic former President Bill Clinton in the 1990s. He was impeached and then acquitted of perjury and obstruction of lawmakers’ investigation into his sexual encounters with a White House intern, and he settled a sexual harassment lawsuit stemming from his time as Arkansas governor.

A look at some of the men accused since the Weinstein accusations emerged:

Entertainment:

— Producer Harvey Weinstein— Accused by dozens of women of sexual harassment or sexual assaults, including rape. Fired by The Weinstein Co. and expelled from various professional guilds. Under investigation by police departments in New York, London, Beverly Hills and Los Angeles. Weinstein denies all allegations of non-consensual sex, but he has apologized for causing “a lot of pain” with “the way I’ve behaved with colleagues in the past.”

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Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom

news.goldseek.com / By Gary Tanashian / 19 November 2017

With all due caveats about the non-stellar gold CoT data (we’ll update in #474) I wanted to note a constructive situation in gold vs. oil, which is a key sector fundamental consideration. Now, there is still a constructive situation in play for nominal crude oil, so take this post for perspective more than anything.

Pardon the massive charts (click to expand) but I am going to start using these personally so that I can fully take into account the historical market aspects that go further back on a daily chart. They just don’t present as well at the website, unless clicked. So I’ll mostly use the smaller, clearer charts for public consumption.

Au/WTI bottomed in December of 2016 as the sector bottomed that same month. The first positive signal was a rise above the daily EMA 10. That is what Au/WTI did this week (until today, as it pulls back below the EMA 10, in-day). Pullbacks will happen even if this is a successful bottoming process. The relative downside volume into an oversold RSI (14) and even higher upside relative volume out of the oversold reading is interesting.

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Will Cryptocurrencies Make Governments and Central Banks Obsolete? PressTV MiniDoc w/ Jeff Berwick

The Dollar Vigilante, Published on Nov 19, 2017

PressTV documentary/show on Bitcoin features Jeff Berwick, Sterlin Luxhan, Roger Ver, Jeff Tucker, Jamie Dimon and many more

Mugabe Admits ‘Mistakes’, But Refuses To Resign In Defiant Speech

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 19, 2017 2:31 PM

Update 8:  Bloomberg is reporting that Zimbabwe’s ruling party will proceed Monday with its plans to impeach President Robert Mugabe after the long-term leader refused to resign Sunday evening, as was expected. Bloomberg’s sources said Mugabe’s speech, including a vow to preside over the party conference in December, deviated from an earlier agreement with military authorities to read a prepared statement of resignation.

Unsurprisingly given his past remarks, it seems Mugabe is comfortable risking a civil war if it means retaining his tenuous grip on power. So with the path forward for Zimbabwe looking dangerously uncertain, the AP has published a timeline reminding readers exactly how we got to this point…

  • Nov. 6: After a campaign of public insults against Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, Mugabe fires his longtime deputy, later accusing him of plotting to take power via witchcraft. Mnangagwa flees the country.
  • Nov 13: Army commander Constantino Chiwenga issues a rare public rebuke, saying the military won’t hesitate to “step in” to calm political tensions and criticizing the handling of the once-prosperous southern African nation’s crumbling economy.
  • Nov. 14: Armored personnel carriers are seen on the outskirts of the capital, Harare. The military moves in overnight, taking control of the state-run broadcaster.

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The Central Banks Have Proposed To Do Away With The Deposit Protection – Episode 1429a

X22Report, Published on Nov 19, 2017

Venezuela’s default my put other nations at risk. The corporate media is trying to explain away the debt problem in America, that its not a problem yet. The ECB and most likely other central banks will push to remove the deposit protection for the everyday person, they know when the system comes down the insurance will not be sufficient to cover the losses.

The Curtain Is Being Pulled Back In Washington D.C., And Al Franken Is Just The Beginning

endoftheamericandream.com / 

For decades, Americans have known that very sick things happen behind the scenes in Washington D.C., but the mainstream media nearly really talks about any of it.  But now the curtain is starting to be pulled back, and the revelations about Al Franken are just the beginning.  Earlier this week, I wrote an article about how “sexual harassment is rampant in the halls of Congress”, and that was before a female radio anchor named LeeAnn Tweeden revealed that Al Franken had “forcibly kissed” and groped her during a USO tour in 2006.  The following comes from an article in which Tweeden shared her story

I couldn’t believe it. He groped me, without my consent, while I was asleep.

I felt violated all over again. Embarrassed. Belittled. Humiliated.

How dare anyone grab my breasts like this and think it’s funny?

I told my husband everything that happened and showed him the picture.

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“I Should Have Left Them In Jail” – Trump Slams UCLA Player’s Parents Indignation

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 19, 2017 2:13 PM

A clearly frustrated President Trump raged over Twitter this afternoon at the father of a UCLA basketball player who downplayed Trump’s importance in getting his son released from shoplifting charges in China…

As a reminder, LaVar’s son, LiAngelo, and two other players were arrested and accused of shoplifting from a Louis Vuitton store while the UCLA basketball team was on a trip to China for its season-opening game.

The players faced potential jail sentences for the charge, but Trump reportedly spoke to Chinese President Xi Jinping about resolving the situation. The players were released, and landed in the United States last week.

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Shock: Black Death Patients Are ESCAPING The Hospital Over Fear Of Needles As Officials Worry Plague Could Spread

shtfplan.com / Alex Thomas / November 18th, 2017

Patients in Madagascar who are currently suffering from the plague have “escaped” multiple hospitals in the area over fears of needles and hospital treatment as a whole, according to a shocking report in The Sun newspaper.

Security guards with at least one hospital have been tasked with forcefully keeping black death patients in the hospital as well as following the strict safety procedures set up in an attempt to quell the outbreak.

The Sun reported:

Officials at the hospital say the main reason why patients run away is that they are scared of needles and don’t have much experience of hospitals.

Jean Benoit Manhes, the deputy representative of Unicef, told the Irish Times: “Some escaped because they’re afraid of needles. People here are not used to the hospital.

“The problem of plague is not just a medical response. You can have hospitals but if people don’t come it isn’t enough.”

Such incidents have prompted fears that the plague could spread even further with each confirmed case requiring 20 people have been in contact with to be treated as a precaution.

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Silver Market Update

clivemaund.com / CLIVE P. MAUND / November 19, 2017

At the same time that gold broke out of a coiling pattern to the upside on Friday, silver broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern shown on its 6-month chart below. Volume was lacking on this breakout, however, and the same reservations that apply to the outlook for gold also apply to silver, namely that its COTs look more bearish then bullish, and that Hedgers positions in the dollar index are still calling for it to rally. On the other hand, gold proxy GLD did make a volume breakout on Friday, and what’s good for gold is usually good for silver. Although these conflicting factors make the situation somewhat ambiguous, there is a favorable trading setup here, because silver is still quite close to the apex of the Symmetrical Triangle, so it is possible to open long positions with fairly close stops beneath the apex of the triangle in case the breakout was false. Gold’s price pattern now looks quite favorable, with it looking set to run to a resistance level towards the top of an uptrend channel, and if that happens, silver should follow suit and advance towards its early September highs at about $18.25, perhaps stopping short at about $18.00 for a reason we will observe on its 2-year chart. Point for a stop for traders going long is about $16.70.

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Think Bitcoin Is A Bubble? Here’s Your Chance To Short It

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 19, 2017 1:44 PM

Has the fact that the price of a single bitcoin has risen nearly eight-fold so far this year prompted you to turn bearish on the world’s most valuable digital currency?

Well, here’s your chance to short it. 

A Swiss asset-management firm called Vontobel launched a new futures product on Friday that will make it easier for retail investors to short bitcoin.

Bitcoin of course recently bounced back to all-time highs after a more-than $1,000 drop last week. Traders who were short made a killing on their positions. But cashing in on the drop would’ve been far easier with new futures products designed to let customers bet against the bitcoin price.

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Why the Elite Are Dumping the Dollar and Running to Cryptocurrency: The Life Boat Project

thecommonsenseshow.com / By Dave Hodges / November 17th, 2017

Why are world’s elite running from the US dollar? What is taking its place?

SOURCE

Business Cycles and Inflation, Part II

acting-man.com / Pater Tenebrarum / November 17, 2017

Early Warning Signals in a Fragile System

[ed note: here is Part 1; if you have missed it, best go there and start reading from the beginning]

We recently received the following charts via email with a query whether they should worry stock market investors. They show two short term interest rates, namely the 2-year t-note yield and 3 month t-bill discount rate. Evidently the moves in short term rates over the past ~18 – 24 months were quite large, even if their absolute levels remain historically low.

The first thing that comes to mind in connection with asset prices is that the cost of carry for leveraged positions is rising. Eventually this will have an effect on such positions, particularly in fixed-income instruments, which inter alia include structured products such as CLOs (collateralized loan obligations). Some market participants reportedly employ leverage of up to 1:10 in these in order to boost returns, which the banks are apparently happy to provide, as the risk is deemed to be low.

As we have discussed previously, CLOs are conceptually not different from the CMOs that created such heavy conniptions in 2007-2009, but CLOs ultimately turned out to be quite resilient at the time. The problem is of course that it is definitely not a given that they will be similarly resilient in the next crisis. Banks no longer have large proprietary books of corporate bonds, but by providing margin loans to investors who buy them on leverage, they remain exposed – and  the degree of leverage is reminiscent of the margin requirements of Wall Street bucket-shops in the 1920s.

Obviously these enhanced returns are highly dependent on borrowing costs, so rising short term rates are bound to become a problem at some point. As a more general remark: the central bank policy of suppressing rates to zero or close to zero provided the incentive for investors to take up enormous leverage, which is seen as the only way of obtaining half-way decent yields. In other words, central bank manipulation of interest rates has definitely made the financial system a lot more fragile.

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The Haggening









MSNBC Guest Exclaims “White Men Pose The Biggest Threat To Americans” After FBI Report On ‘Black Extremists’

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 19, 2017

Jamira Burley appeared on “MSNBC Live” Saturday, claiming that white men “pose the biggest threat to Americans every single day.”

***

As The Daily Caller’s Justin Caruso details, in a segment about the Justice Department looking at “Black Identity Extremist” groups, Burley said:

“Again it continues to try to undermine and criminalize our leaders in a way that undermines the movement. We saw that with MLK when J. Edgar Hoover wrote letters telling him to commit murder, we saw that when Fred Hampton was actually assassinated by police.”

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