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Great Graphic: Relative Performance of Bank Stocks–US, Europe, and Japan / by Marc Chandler / July 29, 2016

This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg, and it shows the performance of bank share indices of the major bourses. The time series are indexed to 100 at the start of this year.


USDJPY Plunges Back To Post-BoJ Lows, Gold Jumps After GDP / by Tyler Durden / Jul 29, 2016 8:54 AM

After the illiquid chaos of the last 24 hours, USDJPY is now pressing lower (Yen stronger) once again (under 103) after the gravely disappointing GDP data. Gold, and silver, are jumping higher and bond yields tumbling…


2nd Quarter Real GDP 1.2%, 1st Quarter Revised Lower to +0.8%; Bloomberg Spins This Mess Positive / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / July 29, 2016 

Not only did real GDP come in on the low side, below nearly all consensus estimates, but first quarter GDP was revised lower to 0.8% from 1.1%.

Factoring in the downward revision, my second quarter guess of 0.8% was extremely close. For details please see GDP Forecast Roundup: GDPNow, Nowcast, Econoday, Goldman, Markit, ZeroHedge, Mish.

Bloomberg Spins This Mess Positive

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate was 2.6% in a range of 2.2% to 3.4%.

Despite the huge miss compared to expectations, Bloomberg Econoday managed to put a positive spin on this mess.


Second-quarter GDP looks very weak at only a plus 1.2 percent annualized rate, but the details are positive. The biggest positive is consumer spending where growth, showing strength across readings, came in at a stellar 4.2 percent rate, more than double the first-quarter’s 1.6 percent rate.

A plus for the economy but a big negative in this report is slowing inventory accumulation which pulled down GDP by 1.2 percentage points in the quarter. But lean inventories point ahead to new accumulation which is a plus for future production and employment.


Amazon Dot CON: The Bezos Con Grows With Revenues / Dave Kranzler / 

The mainstream financial media headlines reporting Amazon’s Q2 earnings release were shamelessly pathetic:  “Amazon crushes Street forecast,” “Amazon beats again in Q2 thanks to cloud services.”  It was beyond nauseating.  The entire spectacle reminds me of the tech bubble, when companies like Cisco, Sun Microsystems and Intel would intentionally “guide” Street analysts into publishing a low consensus forecast the CFOs knew could easily be topped with accounting gimmicks.

Bezos applies all the traditional accounting gimmicks plus he’s created his own,specifically with regard to his definition of “free cash flow.”

I don’t want to spend a lot of time on this.  I’ve wasted most of my evening untangling AMZN’s numbers as reported in its 8-K filing.  Let’s just say that if you dissect AMZN into its “product” and “AWS” components, the results are underwhelming.

Nothwithstanding the fact that AMZN intentionally guides the Street to low-ball estimates ahead of its quarterly earnings report, as you can see from the graphic below, which I created by dissecting and rearranging the sales and operating income numbers from AMZN’s 8-K filed today, AMZN’s growth numbers are underwhelming


ExxonMobil Tumbles To 2-Month Lows After Earnings Miss Worst Analyst Expectation / by Tyler Durden / Jul 29, 2016 8:11 AM

But, but, but the dividend yield, the oil recovery? ExxonMobil is down almost 3% in the pre-market to 2-month lows as it misses earnings expectations drastically (+41c vs 64c exp.. below the lowest expectation of +55c). Production levels also missed expectations as it appears the oil glut has trickled down to motor fuels, dragging refinery margins notably lower.


The market is not happy…


False Information, Mass Psychology and this Hated Stock Market Bull / By Sol Palha / 29 July 2016

As long as you keep a person down, some part of you has to be down there to hold him down, so it means you cannot soar as you otherwise might. Marian Anderson

Regarding today’s news, the average person is inundated with unnecessary junk. On any given day you will find experts telling you why the markets are destined to soar and or crash.  News outlets are desperate for eyeballs, so they are going out of their way to make titles bombastic, and or offering multiple scenarios so that when one of them comes to pass, they can proudly state we told you so.

The problem is that in most cases the information used to back these scenarios is utter rubbish.  On any given day you will find several compelling arguments that call for this market to crash or for this market to soar to the moon. Which one are you supposed to believe, especially when they appear almost simultaneously?  Spend some time on Yahoo or any other major finance site and you will see the common theme is bombastic titles trying to get the reader to click and read the article.  The most interesting part of the article usually is the illusory title, which hardly ever has anything to do with the article at hand. Today’s reporters like mindless bots assume they can continuously employ the same approach, and the masses will embrace them with the same gusto as yesteryear. Perhaps they are right and then perhaps again there is a trend change taking place.

This brings us to another interesting point.  The problem today is that the vast majority of individuals want to live the life of a king but on soldier’s salary. They want to buy things they do not need, with money they do not have to impress people they hate with their guts. Why would they want to do this?  Perhaps, the idea is to give their enemies the illusion all is well. Maybe they would be betteroff if they focussed more on themselves instead paying attention to the opinionsof outsiders.


The Fed: We Came, We Saw, We Did Nothing – The Mainstream Is Catching On to the Game / BY SAMUEL BRYAN / JULY 29, 2016

Once again, the Federal Reserve came, saw, and did nothing.

This has become modus operandi for the Fed over the last two years. As each FOMC meeting approaches, speculation about a possible rate hike ramps up and then the Janet Yellen does…nothing. The one exception was last December, and that turned out to be a complete disaster.

The pundits and analysts are already talking about the possibility of a September hike. Odds are, we’ll witness a repeat performance – or should I say non-performance.

Interestingly, the mainstream is starting to catch on to the game.

In many ways, Peter Schiff has served as the voice calling out in the wilderness. He’s repeatedly said the Fed will not raise rates, and in fact, a cut and more quantitative easing are more likely in our future. This week, he appeared on CNBC’s Futures Now and reiterated that message:

I still believe – and I said this in December of last year – that the next move by the Fed is going to be a cut in rates…It’s the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt. He used to say ‘speak softly but carry a big stick,’ but when it comes to rate hikes the Fed has no stick. So, all they can do is speak loudly and hope nobody notices the absence of a stick. They want to keep talking about all the rate hikes and how they’re going to raise interest rates. But the last thing they want to do is actually do that because then the whole economy will implode and then the markets will realize the box that we’re in.”


Is The BOJ About To Overhaul Its Entire QE Program: Wall Street’s Take On The “Comprehensive Assessment” Clause / by Tyler Durden / Jul 29, 2016 8:08 AM

As previously reported, the yen soared more than 2.4% in an extremely volatile session, and the Nikkei plunged then soared, completing a stunning 1,000 point move, after BOJ’s stimulus disappointed watchers and failed to match expectations, with just an increase in ETF purchases and a doubling of a dollar-lending program to $24b.

The summary

  • Kuroda expands ETF target purchases to 6t yen, and orders assessment of effectiveness of BOJ policy for Sept. meeting
  • The BOJ maintained policy interest rate at -0.1%
  • USD/JPY just under 2% to 103.30 after falling as low as 102.71. Yield on 10-year JGB jumps 9.5 bps to -0.18%, set for the steepest advance since 2013
  • USD/JPY 3-mo. basis swap climbs 5.6 bps to -65 bps
  • Macro accounts sold USD/JPY after a muted rally following BOJ’s decision, with some clients already expecting BOJ to disappoint beforehand, trader says

For those confused by the unexpected letdown by the BOJ, here is a summary of Wall Street reactions to the central bank’s announcement, courtesy of Bloomberg


The Middle East: Great Going, Great Father! / By Jack Perry / July 29, 2016

My last two articles, judging from the volume of email I got, were very well received. People want to know how history, like the seasons, tends to happen in cycles and patterns that are somewhat predictable. When it comes to the United States government repeating history, that is easier to predict than the weather. One thing I touched on in a previous article is the fact that the West, and the United States government who pulls the entire West along like a child pulls a toy wagon, is unable to understand the concept of tribal violence. In truth, tribal and clan violence has not changed, as far as motivations for it go, in several thousands of years.

First, let us understand that this violence in the Middle East is not actually created by the religion of Islam. People have mistakenly imagined it is because they wish it to be so simply explained. In fact, what we have in the Middle East is a shaky confederation of tribes and clans that are only loosely held together by the common faith of Islam. What does not change is that a tribe has its own codes, laws, and taboos that cannot be violated without severe consequences. For example, in many Middle Eastern nations, the penalty for murder is death. We all know that. But what people don’t know is that’s not the only penalty there is.

In many Middle Eastern nations, the penalty for murder is as follows: The family of the murderer has the choice of demanding death for the murderer or accepting what is called “blood price”. This is a cash or barter value of the murdered person’s life, set by tribal law, the sheik (their chief, basically), or clerics. In 1990s Afghanistan, for example, blood price was 100 camels among some clans. The family could ask for or accept blood price and then the murderer would go free. If the murderer or his family could not afford to pay blood price, then the murderer would be put to death. Of course, the family could refuse an offered blood price and demand death and so the murderer would be put to death. That’s how it works and still does in many places.



The Turkish mission to weed out every possible element of dissent continues, with the government of Turkey reportedly dismissing close to 1,700 military personnel and shutting down 131 media outlets throughout the country.

Of the servicemen recently fired in Turkey, 149 were generals and admirals, meaning approximately 40 percent of all of generals and admirals in Turkey’s military are now without jobs.

Apparently, Turkey has not learned from past instances in which regimes fired large numbers of military servicemen; former generals from Saddam Hussein’s army, who were fired by the head of the Coalition Provisional Authority at the time, Paul Bremer, now hold senior positions within ISIS.

To date, over 10,000 soldiers have been detained because of the failed coup attempt, according to Reuters. Eight-thousand are set to face trial.


Frontrunning: July 29 / by Tyler Durden / Jul 29, 2016 7:46 AM

  • Yen, bond yields rise as Bank of Japan action underwhelms (Reuters); Bank of Japan Takes Modest Easing Action (WSJ)
  • Hong Kong shares end lower as BOJ disappointment sweeps Asia (Reuters)
  • Accepting White House nomination, Clinton offers ‘clear-eyed’ vision (Reuters)
  • Two Conventions, Two Distinct World Views (WSJ)
  • Democrats Emphasize American Exceptionalism at Convention (BBG)
  • Clinton’s Image Among Democrats at a Historic Low (WSJ)
  • The Number of Black C-Suite Executives Has Shrunk Under Obama (BBG)
  • Global funds cut share holdings to five-year lows as Brexit bites (Reuters)
  • Here’s a Reason Baby Boomers Will Curb U.S. Growth this Decade (BBG)
  • Facebook May Owe Billions More in Taxes (WSJ)
  • Chinese Banks With Global Dreams Eye Middle East Mega Bonds (BBG)
  • The year of ‘Neither’: Why Reuters/Ipsos is tweaking its U.S. presidential poll (Reuters)
  • Monte dei Paschi close to finalizing cash call guarantors (Reuters)
  • French second quarter growth unexpectedly grinds to a halt on weak consumer spending (Reuters)
  • Speed Traders Invade Sleepy Corner of England, Locals Bristle (BBG)
  • Phillips 66 profit halves on gasoline glut (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank Said to Revive Trading of Credit Options in Europe (BBG)
  • U.S. military prepares for biggest Okinawa land return since 1972 (Reuters)
  • Yellen Chases Elusive U.S. Wage Gains With Georgia On Her Mind (BBG)
  • NextEra Agrees to Buy Oncor in Deal Valued at $18.4 Billion (BBG)
  • Credit Suisse to create U.S. banking business for billionaire (Reuters)

Overnight Media Digest


– The Bank of Japan announced an extra dose of monetary stimulus Friday, joining fresh efforts by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to reboot the economy. The central bank said it would buy 6 trillion yen ($58.11 billion) worth of exchange-traded funds annually, up from 3.3 trillion yen ($31.96 billion) previously, in an attempt to stoke inflation and economic growth. It said it would leave its asset-purchase target at 80 trillion yen ($774.74 billion) a year.


Turkish Coup Fallout: Chief of Staff Fingers Gulen As Plot Leader

corbettreport, Published on Jul 29, 2016

From the Turkish Armed Forces’s Chief of Staff hanging the plot on Erdogan to the drama at Incirlik and the NBC psyops, Christoph Germann of the New Great Game blog is here to update us on all the latest news, views and reactions to this month’s failed coup attempt in Turkey.

The Car Bubble … and Cash for Clunkers II? / By Eric Peters /  

A guy who smokes meth can pull a week of 15 hour days. But come nextweek… .

That’s how artifical “incentives” work on the economy. On the macro level, it is the Boom – and Bust – business cycle, whose unnatural peaks and valleys are caused by manipulation of money and credit, which causes excessive and unwarranted “investment” that – inevitably – leads to a downturn (or even a crash) when the artificially induced suppy is disproportionate to demand. The housing bubble of the early 2000s is an obvious example of this.

Cash for Clunkers (same era) is another – and its unfortunate effects are just now beginning to become obvious.

As with housing in the early 2000s, the federal government decided it would be a good idea to “stimulate” new car sales by enacting a program that paid people to throw away perfectly good used cars. The idea being that they would then buy new cars to replace the ones thrown away.

Many (but not all, bear with) did so. This created a boom in new cars sales. Not only because there were fewer good used cars available, but also because the ones that remained had gone up considerably in price due to (wait for it) limited supply. Thisartificial scarcity in turn became the artificial incentive to buy a new car.

Actually, to take out a loan on a new car.

The remaining used cars  that survived Cash for Clunkers were still less expensive than a new car. But they were now expensive enough that few people could afford to plunk down cash for one. That meant financing – and the interest rates on a loan for a used car tend to be much higher while interest rates on a new car loan were (and still are) much lower.


A Bull Market For The Ages As The Price Of Gold Heads To A Jaw-Dropping $20,000 / July 28, 2016

After such a significant move in the gold, silver and mining share markets, today King World News thought it was a good idea to take a step back and look at the big picture of the war between gold and the Federal Reserve.  This led to a remarkable question:  Is the price of gold headed to nearly $20,000?

MacroTrends:  This chart (below) shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. The monetary base roughly matches the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which indicates the level of new money creation required to prevent debt deflation. Previous gold bull markets ended when this ratio crossed over the 4.8 level….


IMF Studies Sovereign Debt Restructurings, Admits Its Policy Was Responsible For Greek Depression / by Tyler Durden / Jul 29, 2016 7:07 AM

It appears causing an economic depression and significantly deteriorating life expectancy in Greece is not enough for the IMF.

In a paper published this month, the IMF seeks to study the relationship between GDP and sovereign debt restructuring using data from 1970-2010. Its main conclusion may be shocking: “the central finding of this paper is that sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors can affect per capita GDP growth performance in the years after debt restructuring.“ And these are the people in charge of advising nations on managing their economy…


Doug Casey: With Some Luck, Trump Will Destroy the Republican Party / July 28, 2016

Editor’s note: We have something special to share with you over the next couple days. Instead of our usual market commentary, we’re featuring a recent interview between Nick Giambruno, editor of Crisis Investing, and Casey Research founder Doug Casey. Today, in part one of the interview, Doug tells Nick why he thinks Donald Trump will destroy the Republican Party…and why that’s a good thing.

Tomorrow, Doug tells us what could happen if Hillary Clinton wins. As usual, Doug doesn’t hold back and ignores any notion of political correctness. Enjoy…

Nick Giambruno: There is a popular conception that only the “best and brightest” go into government. I think this is a sacred cow that needs to be slaughtered. What’s your take, Doug?

Doug Casey: It’s a real problem when a pernicious myth subverts reality. Everybody believes that the institution of government is like Camelot—a wise ruler assisted by noble paladins. Maybe that meme gained traction in recent times with John Kennedy and his good-looking wife, Jackie. They looked like an ideal couple. They weren’t. But they were a lot better than what followed for the next 50 years…

The fact is that the high levels of government do get people with high IQs. They can pass tests. They’re skilled at manipulating both laws and people. But they tend to be of low moral character, number one. Number two, despite their high IQs, they’re actually quite stupid. Let me explain these things.

From a moral point of view, there are two types of people in the world. People who believe in coercion when dealing with their fellow humans. And people who believe in dealing voluntarily with their fellow humans.

Government is force. The essence of government is coercion. So, people attracted to it are necessarily the wrong kind of people, coercion-oriented people. Government draws much more than its share of criminal personalities.


Congress Authorized Propaganda Against Americans / by Martin Armstrong / Jul 29, 2016

The mainstream media became far more systemically involved as the government’s tool to spread propaganda after two vital changes were made to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which included an amendment that legalized the use of propaganda on the American public.

Our pretend “representatives” in Congress have proven that they do not represent the people, and instead exploit us for personal gain both political as well as monetarily. There had always been an anti-propaganda law that prevented the U.S. government from broadcasting programming to American audiences to politically influence people for political gain.

During the 1970s and 1980s, the prevailing view was that American taxpayers shouldn’t be funding propaganda for American audiences. On July 2, 2013, that law was silently repealed with the implementation of a new reform act. The bottom line: Congress knew what it was doing when it deliberately unleashed thousands of hours per week of government-funded radio and TV programs for U.S. domestic propaganda efforts.

Our “pretend” representatives see no problem with propaganda today. Congress also allowed the repeal of the Fairness Doctrine in broadcasting. They no longer require the mainstream media to tell the truth. Why do our politicians now believe they are entitled to lie, cheat, and use mainstream media to create state propaganda?


FSS World News Update 07-29-2016 Famine – Bucket Garden – UN Convoy Attack – Survival News

FullSpectrumSurvivalPublished on Jul 29, 2016

Despite Huge BOJ Disappointment, Global Stocks Rise, US Equity Futures Flat As Yen Soars / by Tyler Durden / Jul 29, 2016 6:46 AM

European stocks and Asian shares rose, U.S. equity futures were unchanged and the yen surged after the BOJ shocked markets and kept its QE program unchanged, defying market expectations of a big boost to its monetary stimulus program.

The session’s key event, last night Bank of Japan policy announcement, the most anticipated in years, was – as we predicted yesterday when we said that it would be impossible for the central bank to meet market expectations – a dud, one which sparked a surge in the yen and sending government bonds and emerging-market stocks lower.

Japan’s currency soared against all of its 31 major peers after the BOJ effectively punted to the next meeting, keeping its government-bond buying target and policy interest rate unchanged, opting instead to double exchange-traded fund purchases to 6 trillion yen ($58 billion) a year, the BOJ said. The result was a 1.5% spike in the yen, bringing its gain this year to about 16 percent.

The BOJ’s expanded stimulus “was as minimal as possible,” said Stefan Worrall, director of equity cash sales at Credit Suisse Group AG in Tokyo. “The tension was extremely high going into the announcement, and the market has reacted in a way that has perhaps reflected that.”


Donald Trump’s Candidacy—–The Good And The Bad Of It / by David Stockman / July 29, 2016

Donald Trump’s Candidacy—–The Good And The Bad Of It

In the next sections we shall document at length why the US is a nation on the brink of financial ruin. Our purpose at this point, however, is to dispel any illusion that Donald Trump—–the man and his platform—-offers any semblance of a remedy.

In the great scheme of history, the Donald’s great purpose may be to simply disrupt and paralyze the status quo. And that much he may accomplish whether he is elected or not.

For what is actually happening is meta-political. The bipartisan ruling elites are being Trumped.

Their entire regime of casino capitalism, beltway racketeering and imperial hegemony is being unmasked. The unwashed masses are catching on to the “rigged” essence of the system, and have already become alienated enough to rally to outlaw politicians—– like Bernie and Trump—–peddling ersatz socialism and red neck populism, respectively.

To be sure, the metaphor of Shock and Awe and the idea of “regime change” have been given a bad name by Bush the Younger and his bloody henchmen. Yet there is no better way to describe Donald Trump’s rise and role than with exactly those terms.


Expert: Global Investors Fleeing Negative Rates for “Risky Instruments” / FS STAFF / 07/28/2016

In a desperate search for yield, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and public pension funds have been investing in corporate debt and equities on a scale we have never seen before, the OMFIF’s David Marsh told us in 2014 regarding their comprehensive Global Public Investor report.

“The move into equities has continued,” said Marsh, Co-Founder and Managing Director at the OMFIF, in today’s interview with Financial Sense.

Their 2016 report, covering 500 official public institutions and roughly $30 trillion in investable funds, was just released (see here) and Marsh had some alarming remarks regarding the trends and forces at work in today’s global markets.

He noted that many of the official institutions they monitor are making losses on their reserves since they are “investing in areas that yield very low or negative returns.”


Exposing Hillbama’s Big Lie: The Central Issue In The U.S. Presidential Campaign / by Eric Zuesse / Jul 29, 2016 

The central issue in the U.S. Presidential campaign can’t even be discussed in U.S. newsmedia, because America’s media have been almost uniformly complicit all along in hiding from the American public the crucial factual information that’s necessary in order for the public to vote in an intelligent and truthfully informed way about it. No news medium wants to report its own having been complicit in anything; so, the cover-up here just continues; it has a life of its own, even though it’s a life that brings the world closer and closer to a situation which would kill billions of people, as things get increasingly out-of-control the longer this coverup continues. The cycle of virtually uniform lying thus persists, despite the growing danger it produces. This article will need to be lengthy, because the American public have been almost consistently lied-to about so many very important things — things associated with the nation’s central issue — an issue even bigger than terrorism, and than global warming, and than rising economic inequality and corruption, but which is still virtually ignored. This article is thus intended to be ‘Drano’ for a political system that has become clogged by lies just jammed down into it, now backing up and pouring out onto America’s political floor. The overflowing sludge has got to be cleaned up, and discarded. Or else — and very suddenly — it will kill us all.


US Homeownership Rates Falls Back To LBJ’s Great Society Levels / by Anthony B. Sanders via Confounded Interest / 

The US homeownership rate keeps falling like a deranged energizer bunny.

It is the lowest since President Lyndon B. Johnson’s administration and his “Great Society” programs.


Social Fragmentation Suits the Powers That Be / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / THURSDAY, JULY 28, 2016

The Elites have successfully revolted against the political and economic constraints on their wealth and power.
Ours is an Age of Fracture (the 2011 book by Daniel Rodgers) in which “earlier notions of history and society that stressed solidity, collective institutions, and social circumstances gave way to a more individualized human nature that emphasized choice, agency, performance, and desire.”
A society that is fragmenting into cultural groups that are themselves fracturing into smaller units of temporary and highly contingent solidarity is ideal for Elites bent on maintaining political and financial control.
A society that has fragmented into a media-fed cultural war of hot-button identity-gender-religious politics is a society that is incapable of resisting concentrations of power and wealth in the hands of the few at the expense of the many.
If we set aside the authentic desire of individuals for equal rights and cultural liberation and examine the political and financial ramifications of social fragmentation, we come face to face with Christopher Lasch’s insightful analysis on The Revolt of the Elites and the Betrayal of Democracy (1996 book).


REALIST NEWS – Second Significant Bank to Give Bail-In Notice

jsnip4Published on Jul 29, 2016