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In an era where school shootings have been blasted all over the news media so it would seem to the average TV view that these things happen all the time in this country (even though they don’t), some schools have decided those “gun free zone” signs they post out front might as well be akin to “Hey, unarmed victims here!” and have decided instead to advertise that they now allow staff to carry firearms.
Okay Public School Superintendent Charles McMahan told theMuskogee Phoenix, “The signs are more or less a deterrent. We don’t want to be a soft target.”
On the heels of the Dow plunging nearly 400 points at one point during today’s trading session, and with gold surging and oil falling, today a jaw-dropping indicator that was last seen during the Great Depression just hit an all-time high!
But first, let’s start with an important quote from last Friday:
“I continue to be somewhat surprised that all the destruction that has occurred in the stock market thus far hasn’t led to a wide open break, but the pressure continues to build and I think a big dislocation is as close to a certainty as those things can ever be. I realize that is a pretty bold statement on my part, as such events are quite rare, but in this case it is a virtual slam dunk, for reasons I have reiterated many times.” — Bill Fleckenstein 2/5/2016
shoebat.com / By Andrew Bieszad / February 8, 2016
Lauren Mann was an American music and arts student who loved playing the piano and went to Austria specifically to focus on her music studies while working as an au pair All her friends say that she had a generous heart for the poor and needy. Being 23 years old and living amidst this “refugee” crisis, out of the goodness of her heart she wanted to help these “migrants,” many of whom were homeless and living near her. She would go out and give them food, drink, and little treats such as cigarettes.
One of the people she helped was a Gambian Muslim named Abdou. According to the reports, she had given him help on more than one occasion. In thanks for her kindness, he followed her home one evening broke into her apartment, and strangled her to death as he raped. The abuse was so horrible that her mangled corpse was left covered in her own blood and vomit on her bed.
And Wall Street analysts are wondering whether the upcoming iPhone 7 will fail to move the needle. “Although we do expect growth in 2017, we do not expect a major iPhone 7 bounce-back,” analysts Tavis C. McCourt and Mike Koban at Raymond James said recently.
The fear is that Apple is at its peak, and the only way from here is down.
The immediate cause of today’s 50% plunge inChesapeake Energy Corp.(NYSE:CHK) stock this morning (Monday) was the news that the company had hired the restructuring law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP. Chesapeake is carrying a debt load of $9.8 billion – eight times the company’s market value.
But in the minutes after markets opened, CHK stock fell harder. By mid-morning, Chesapeake Energy stock was down as much as 50% to $1.50 a share. Trading of Chesapeake Energy stock was halted at least six times. That’s the lowest intraday price for CHK stock since January 2000.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 14:33
The echoes of both Bear and Lehman are growing louder with every passing day.
Just hours after Deutsche Bank stock crashed by 10% to levels not seen since the financial crisis, the German behemoth with over $50 trillion in gross notional derivative found itself in the very deja vuish, not to mention unpleasant, situation of having to defend its liquidity and specifically assuring investors that it has enough cash (about €1 billion in 2016 payment capacity), to pay the €350 million in maturing Tier 1 coupons due in April, which among many other reasons have seen billions in value wiped out from both DB’s stock price and its contingent convertible bonds which are looking increasingly more like equity with every passing day.
DB did not stop there, but also laid out that for 2017 it was about €4.3BN in payment capacity, however before the impact of 2016 results, which if recent record loss history is any indication, will severely reduce the full cash capacity of the German bank.
Banks and governments all over the world have been pushing for a cashless society in recent years. They demonize cash at every turn, because they don’t want you to buy and sell anonymously. They want every transaction to exist in their surveillance grid. They don’t want the accountability that cash provides. Instead, they’d rather have the power to confiscate your wealth on a whim and impose negative interest rates. Above all else, they want to hinder your ability to save for the future.
So it’s no surprise that they would use slick propaganda to make cash seem dirty and old-fashioned, which is exactly what this PayPal advertisement is designed to do.
davidstockmanscontracorner.com / by David Stockman •
The wise guys keep buying the dips owing to the simple proposition that there is never a lasting bear market without a recession. After today’s blow-out we are likely to get another call to scoop up the “bargains” because the correction has run its course and the US economy is still chugging along notwithstanding the contretemps in China and other places of purportedly limited moment.Indeed, on the basis of Wall Street’s muscle memory alone there is surely another dead cat bounce on its way any day. But here’s the memo. BTFDs is not working any more and, more crucially, there is a recession coming and soon. And then the bear will maul, not simply paw as today.
The fact is, BTFD hasn’t worked on a net basis hasn’t for about 730 days now. The S&P 500 closed today where it first crossed in February 2014.
Folks, today I am issuing an official Super Crash Warning. That means we are on the verge of a serious market crash in the near future, which I now predict will hit by summer, June 20, 2016, and it’s not going to be a good one.
It must seem like I never have any good news for you, but it’s my job to see the world as it is, not as I’d like it to be, and what I see is things getting worse by the day:
FINANCIAL STOCKS ARE CRUMBLING.U.S. bank stocks have fallen 30% to 40% over the last few months, a very bad sign. Just look at the charts of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)… These stocks are very sensitive to systemic instability. Private equity stocks are getting crushed too – Apollo Global Management LLC (NYSE: APO), Ares Management LP (NYSE:ARES), KKR & Co. LP (NYSE: KKR), Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX), Carlyle Group (Nasdaq: CG), Fortress Investment Group LLC (NYSE:FIG). I warned you last week about Deutsche Bank (DB) and the coming collapse in European bank stocks – but if you look at their bonds and credit default swaps, the news is even more ominous. The thing all of these companies have in common is heavy exposure to the high debt levels that built up since the financial crisis. The market is telling us that it is very worried that the Debt Supercycle is over and that a lot of this debt isn’t going to be paid back.
zerohedge.com / Via Dana Lyons’ Tumblr, on 02/08/2016 11:59
While the broad stock market has been getting hammered, the utility sector hit a 52-week high this week – and achieved a significant relative breakout.
Our firm’s philosophy when it comes to investment selection, i.e., where to invest, is to concentrate in the strongest performing areas of the market. We refer to this as relative strength. Typically, this means the sectors that are rising more than the rest, especially on a risk-adjusted basis. Occasionally, though – in a market correction or bear market – it can mean the sectors that just aren’t losing ground, or are losing the least. This is the case currently with the utility sector. For, while most areas of the market are off to a historically weak start, utilities are up 8% for 2016, as measured by the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJU). Furthermore, while the DJU is up a mere 1.7% over the past 52 weeks, it is nevertheless at a 52-week high.
For once, aggrieved investors can’t blame China. Markets in China are closed for the New Year’s holidays.
After a very ugly week, we expected stock markets to rise this week on the simple principle that nothing goes to heck in a straight line. But we’ve been wrong on this before, and that line could be straighter than we’d expect. So, the US and Europe are starting out the week with a rout.
Last week in the US was particularly ugly for momentum stocks, and for companies that had announced lousy earnings or given squishy forecasts, and even for startups with recent IPOs that were once highfliers and have now crashed. Not even the promise of share buybacks works anymore. Financial engineering has lost its effectiveness. Central-Bank imposed negative interest rates aren’t propping up stocks anymore. None of these tricks works anymore. That’s what markets are learning.
And today, the theme carries over. At the time I’m writing this, the Dow and S&P 500 are down about 2.4%. The Nasdaq is down 2.8%, scooting closer to a bear market: down 19% or nearly 1,000 points from its high last June.
In Europe, last week was tough: The London FTSE -3.9%, the German DAX -5.2%, the French CAC 40 -4.9%, the Spanish IBEX 35 -3.6%, the Italian MIB a juicy -7.5%. A lot of people define a bear market as a 20% decline from a (more or less recent) high. As of Friday, all of these markets, except the FTSE, were already in a “bear market.”
And on Monday, the FTSE also fell into a bear market, down 2.7% for the day. The DAX fell 3.3%, which brings its six-day loss to 8%. The CAC 40 fell 3.2%, the Milan MIB 4.4%, bringing its six-day loss to about 12%. Ugly, ugly, ugly.
A Shandong 5000 electroglide flatbed currency printing machine named ‘Ted’ has edged ahead in a fiercely competitive fight for the chairmanship of the US Federal Reserve, narrowly in front of its major rival, the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen high speed sheet fed rotary offset press, christened ‘Heidi’.
In an ominous sign for supporters of the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen candidacy, a number of US Senate Republicans are circulating a letter supporting the Shandong 5000 model in its quest to replace Janet Yellen at the head of the world’s most important central bank.
The Shandong 5000 is a six colour high speed flexo letterpress printing machine which can churn out up to $200 trillion in high denomination bills in less than 60 seconds.
In a subtle technical innovation, these bills can then be immediately declared illegal and holders of them instantaneously vaporized.
The only other serious contender, a 70 ton Komori Super Orlof Intaglio based in Tokyo, melted after recent deployment by the Bank of Japan.
Senate Democrats rounded on the nomination of a Chinese printing machine in what critics interpreted as a thinly veiled racial slur that ran the risk of igniting an international trade war.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 11:45
BTFD? Deutsche Bank stock crashed over 11% today (the most since July 2009) to its lowest since January 2009 record lows. We have detailed at length why this is a major systemic problem and we wonder how anyone can view this chart and not question their full faith in central planners engineering of the ‘recovery’. Nothing is fixed and it’s starting to become very obvious!
thedailysheeple.com / by Claire Bernish via THE ANTI-MEDIA /
Editor’s Note: Since the establishment is so pro-Hillary, we’re about to see this kind of obvious cheating across the national board. Perhaps the silver lining is that somehow at least this time when it’s so over the top voters will realize how blatantly rigged this entire game is…
Chaos and confusion over Democratic party rules have now been blamed for unilateral changes to Monday night’s caucus resultsin at least one precinct. As the Guardianreported:
“In Grinnell Ward 1, the precinct where elite liberal arts college Grinnell College is located, 19 delegates were awarded to Bernie Sanders and seven were awarded to Hillary Clinton on caucus night. However, the Iowa Democratic Party decided to shift one delegate from Sanders to Clinton on the night and did not notify precinct secretary J. Pablo Silva that they had done so. Silva only discovered that this had happened the next day, when checking the precinct results in other parts of the country.”
market-ticker.org / by Karl Denninger / 2016-02-08
And so it begins today.
Chesapeake Energy, one of Cramer’s former darlings if you remember, had been down some 30% last month.
Today it lost nearly half its tiny remaining value on reports of restructuring.You see, this company, like so many others, took on a bunch of debt over the last few years — and unfortunately has a $500 million note due soon.
Oh, did I mention that while they supposedly have the money it would cripple them to pay it out considering that their levered free cash flow is negative $2.52 billion and their total debt is more than five times their cash?
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 11:30
For years, the so-called experts laughed at SocGen’s Albert Edwards who not only steadfastly claimed that his “Ice Age” thesis is in play with central bank intervention only kicking the can – something that no longer works as Deutsche Bank so poignantly explained when it begged over the weekend for no more “easing” – but that once the realization and revulsion to artificially inflated markets hits, the “S&P will fall 75%” as he predicted in mid-January and we duly noted.
But while the pundits were laughing, they have been surprisingly quiet lately. Why? Because it appears that Albert may have the last laugh after all.
As SocGen’s “other” realistic strategist Andrew Lapthorne writes, “Maybe Albert’s crazy forecast is not that crazy after all!” Here is why:
charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / FEBRUARY 08, 2016
Many of these apparently high incomes are completely absorbed by high-cost upper middle class expenses.
Since the top 10% takes home 50% of all household income, it follows that this top slice has most of the discretionary cash, i.e. net income left after taxes, servicing debt and paying for essentials such as food, utilities and housing.
It also follows that the discretionary spending of the top 10% is supporting much of the economy that is dependent on discretionary spending: tourism, eating out, personal trainers, etc.
The top 10% includes the thin slice of Financial Oligarchy (top .01%) and the top 1%. This skews the income and wealth of the top 10%. But if we set aside the top 1%, the next 10% still earns the lion’s share of household income.
The top .1% can prop up Maserati sales and buy $5 million vacation homes, but there simply aren’t enough super-wealthy to support the U.S. economy. As for the top 1%, they can prop up the local Porsche dealership and pay dock fees at the yacht club, but there aren’t enough of them to support the entire economy, either: around 1.5 million qualify as top 1%.
marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / February 8, 2016
In many ways, the world has turned upside down. It is not just central banks that have set policy rates below zero, but the entire German curve out through eight years have negative yields. Japan, which has the largest debt burden relative to GDP, has negative yields out through nine years. The Swiss curve is negative through 15 years.
It is not just core countries either. Ireland, which holds national elections in a couple of weeks, has negative yields out four years. Spain, which is struggling to put together a government following the election at the end of last year, has negative rates through two-years.
Another aspect of the world that seems to be turned on its head is that several central banks and governments want businesses to give workers bigger wage increases. This is important. Many observers think that the role of central banks is to protect banks. This is to confuse means and ends. Central banks recognize that a healthy financial system is necessary for a robust economy, but it is the general economic performance that is the goal.
Japan offers the most timely illustration of this generalization. Although higher wages were not one of Abe’s initial three arrows, it was recognized from the start that higher wages were necessary to boost growth and finally arrest deflation. The failure to ensure higher wages has undermined Abenomics.
Cash earnings in Japan were expected to have risen 0.7% year-over-year in December. They did not. They rose by a meager 0.1%. This is slower than in 2014. Annual wage growth has not surpassed 1% since 1997. When adjusted for inflation wages in Japan have not risen since 2011. Remember too that 1 April 2017 Japan is planning on hiking the retail sales tax from 8 % to 10%.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 11:25
SDJPY has tested down to 115.00 this morning as the blowback from Kuroda’s “Peter Pan” policy move into NIRP continues to ripple through the world’s largest carry trade. Most troubling is last week’s jawboning of “no limits” made the situation worse as desperation was clear, erasing all of USDJPY’s gains since it unleashed QQE2 after The Fed ended QE3.
And as goes USDJPY, so goes the world’s over-inflated risk asset classes.
Well, this time is indeed very different. This is not Jan., 2015. The world is waking up to the fact that a brand new, multi-headed hydra solvency crisis is upon us. – Eric Dubin, The News Doctors (link below)
One of the idiots from Wall Street that CNBC likes to roll out was on scratching his head over the behavior of the stock market. He asserted that it was nothing more than panic because “the real economy is doing well.”
I’m wondering what data he’s using to draw that conclusion. Nearly every report that has been released for the last few months, other than the highly manipulated/fabricated Government employment report, is showing that economic activity is collapsing to levels last observed in 2008.
The Baltric Dry Index has collapsed to all-time lows. Freight and goods transportation indices area showing a collapse in demand in the wholesale and retail distribution system. This shows a collapse in consumer spending. Based on unadjusted, unannualized numbers, existing home sales plunged 20% from Q3 to Q4. Auto sales are quickly rolling over. Energy debt is blowing a hole in bank balance sheets across the country. Auto finance paper is next.
news.goldseek.com / Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters / 8 February 2016
Gold Today – The New York gold price closed Friday at $1,173.60 up from $1,155.70 up $17.90. With China closed this week, it held there at London’s opening and then the LBMA set it at $1,173.80 up from Friday’s $1,158.50 up $15.30 with the dollar index up slightly at 96.97 up from 96.62 on Friday. The dollar was weaker against the euro at $1.1156 down from $1.0956 against the euro on Friday. The gold price in the euro was set at €1,052.17 up from €1,034.74. Ahead of New York’s opening, the gold price was trading at $1,175.85 and in the euro at €1,057.09.
Silver Today –The silver price in New York closed at $15.04 up 18 cents at Friday’s close. Ahead of New York’s opening, the silver price stood at $14.95.
Gold (very short-term)
The gold price will consolidate with a stronger bias, in New York today.
Silver (very short-term)
The silver price will consolidate with a stronger bias, in New York today.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 02/08/2016 11:15
Everyone’s favorite permabullish meteorologist, Deutsche Bank’s very own Joe LaVorgna, has gone full-Zero Hedge of late, dropping the weather excuses for a decidedly bearish take on the state of the US economy.
Indeed it was just last month when LaVorgna cut his Q4 GDP estimate by “one full percentage point” citing “softer than expected data.”
Well don’t look now, but LaVorgna is back with yet another dire warning about the US “recovery,” this time slashing 2016 estimates due to a laundry list of factors including, but certainly not limited to, tighter financial conditions (apparently hiking into a decelerating economy wasn’t a good idea after all) and weak global growth.
“You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.” ― Adrian Rogers