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armstrongeconomics.com / by Martin Armstrong / November 23, 2014
The stark difference between Putin and Western politicians is starting to impress even those who fear him. Putin says what he thinks and does not swing back and forth with polls. He actually answers question as demonstrated on a German TV interview. In the West, we lack politicians who really stand for anything. They move with the polls.
trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / November 23, 2014
Russian Capital Outflows have been pretty extreme so far in 2014 – totalling USD85.3 billion in the first nine months of 2014, up on 44.1 billion net outflows in the same period of 2013, USD45.8 billion in 2012 and USD46.9 billion in the same period 2011. At annualised rate, current outflows are running at around USD114 billion, which is the worst year after 2008 outflows of USD133.6 billion.
More than half of these outflows fell on Q1 2014 (USD48.6 billion) with *only* USD36.7 billion in Q2 and Q3. In fact the rate of outflows in Q3 was below the average for 2008-present period (USD18.7 billion per quarter) and over Q2 and Q3 average rate of outflow was below average as well.
Overall, Net Capital Outflows for Q1-Q3 2014 exceeded average rate of outflows by USD29.3 billion.
Looking at the composition of outflows, USD16.1 billion of net outflows over the first nine months of 2014 came from the Banking sector – which is worse than the same period 2013 (USD10.9 billion) and 2012 (inflows of USD9.6 billion), but better than the same period of 2011 (outflows of USD17.3 billion). 2008-present quarterly average Banking sector net outflows stand at USD3.72 billion, which suggests that current nine months cumulative outflows exceed average by about USD4.9 billion. READ MORE
mises.ca / by Patrick Barron / Saturday, November 22nd, 2014
It was my pleasure to attend Mises Canada’s “International Conference on Prices and Markets” on November 7 and 8 in beautiful Toronto. Redmond Weissenberger and David Howden were hosts and organizers for our truly jolly group of around seventy attendees.
The conference got off to a rousing start with an informal gathering at Pauper’s Pub on Friday evening, November 7th, where Doug French gave an informative talk on the great Las Vegas property boom and subsequent bust. We were mesmerized by Doug’s description of the property development bubble mania and then saddened when he described the personal tragedies that followed the bust. It was not just the loss of wealth that was so tragic, but dozens took their own lives out of humiliation and despair. I was reminded of stories of stockbrokers jumping off New York skyscrapers following the crash of ’29, as Doug told of well-known wheeler dealers and sometimes their wives, too, jumping off the top of Las Vegas high rises. One woman took her own life so her now Mercedes Benz-less daughter could collect her million dollar insurance policy that had been written with no suicide exclusion clause. Stories like this reminded us of the seriousness of our conference’s work.
zerohedge.com / by Thad Beversdorf / 11/22/2014 21:59 -0500
Lately, we hear a lot about Orwell’s “1984″ and Rand’s “Atlas Shrugged” but perhaps the best crystal ball to our current state of affairs is Plato’s Republic. You see both Rand and Orwell were describing a world outside of themselves. A world they couldn’t understand or accept. And while those works are brilliant and incredibly prophetic, I expect that to understand a world borne of narcissistic sociopathy one must examine the construct of such a world by a narcissistic sociopath. Fortunately Plato, perhaps the world’s most (in)famous narcissistic sociopath, provided us a vivid illustration and explanation of his ideal state in “Plato’s Republic”. Plato provides us the why to Orwell’s and Rand’s ‘unideal’ states.
Plato provides the arguments for the philosopher kings. He also describes various levels of reality, arguing that each societal demographic must live within the reality level delegated to them. He argues each demographic has a limited intellectual capacity and thus can only handle the reality level provided to them. With the philosopher kings being the only societal demographic with the right to and capacity for absolute truth. Likewise, the philosophers kings in the world we find ourselves today control each and every aspect of life including our subsequent perception the world. There is no such thing as happenstance.
The market moves a certain direction not because of unexplained market forces but because the philosopher kings have made it so. Economic policies are creating incredible wealth for the already wealthy while destroying the middle class not because of honest misjudgements or the need for more time but because the philosopher kings make it so. The Fed dropped the U3 unemployment rate as a benchmark because it does not meet their standard of truth but expects the rest of us to consider that true unemployment. Declining GDP is ignored while adjusted indicators signalling GDP is healthy are paraded all over the street because the philosopher kings make it so. A Malaysian airliner is shot out of the sky not by things yet unknown but because the philosopher kings make it so.
The guys at Perpetual Assets are not only fellow warriors in the struggle against oligarchy and fascism in the USSA, they are also friends. It’s been great getting to know them over the years, and working with them in this existential struggle we face.
The way in which they have chosen to make a difference is in hard-asset protection, which is why they started the company. With civil asset forfeiture currently in the spotlight, it’s worth remembering that there has been a marked rise not just in occurrences of civil asset forfeiture, but also in scope. Any asset that you do not control is potentially at risk. One of the ways in which Perpetual Assets tries to help in this regard is to jailbreak your retirement account through an LLC IRA, with which you can even take home delivery of gold and silver bullion. Check out their tutorial on the process here.
thedailysheeple.com / Joshua Krause / November 22nd, 2014
No one in their right mind should believe that we’ve finally recovered from the “great recession”. Time after time we’ve seen the stock market rise and fall at the whims of the Federal Reserve, and their money printing parade known as “quantitative easing”. Everything is being propped up with funny money, and the only reason the dollar has recovered, is because every other economy on Earth is slightly worst than our own.
Now that the Fed has stopped QE3, it’s only a matter of time before stocks begin to slide. When Bernanke was still in charge of the Fed, all it took was mentioning the possibility of ending QE, for stocks to plunge 1.4 percent. Now that QE3 is over, the only thing stabilizing the economy is the unspoken promise that if anything happens to the stock market, the Fed will come to the rescue with another round of quantitative easing.
While more QE from the Fed is all but guaranteed at this point, doing so may end up backfiring on their phony economy. Recently Peter Schiff has chimed in with some sobering thoughts on the matter. Any attempt to inject more money into the stock market, will only prove to investors that the economy is nothing but a house of cards.
davidstockmanscontracorner.com / By Charles R. Schwab / November 21, 2014
For America’s 44 million senior citizens, plus tens of millions of others who are on the threshold of retirement, last month marked a watershed moment that is worth celebrating. At the end of October, the Federal Reserve announced the first step in returning to a more normal monetary policy. After nearly six years of near-zero interest rates and quantitative easing, the Fed is ending its bond-buying program and has signaled a plan to eventually begin raising the federal-funds rate, raising interest rates to more normal levels by 2017.
U.S. households lost billions in interest income during the Fed’s near-zero interest rate experiment. Because they are often reliant on income from savings, seniors were hit the hardest. Households headed by seniors 65-74 years old lost on average $1,900 in annual income over the past six years, according to a November 2013 McKinsey Global Institute report. For households headed by seniors 75 and older, the loss was $2,700 annually.
With a median income for senior households in the U.S. of roughly $25,000, these are significant losses. In total, according to my company’s calculations, approximately $58 billion in annual income has been lost by America’s seniors since 2008.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 11/22/2014 20:29 -0500
As recently reported by the Project On Student Debt, 7 in 10 seniors who graduated from public and nonprofit colleges in 2013 had student loans, with an average debt load of $28,400 per borrower. This represents a two percent increase from the average debt of 2012 public and nonprofit graduates. It is also a new record high.
Those curious about the geographic breakdown of the student debt burden by state, can do so at the following interactive map:
dollarvigilante.com / Jeff Berwick / November 21st, 2014
Some people, apparently, still have a fear of being free (they fear not having violent owners). It’s a fear I’ve never understood… but whenever you mention to them how much better a free market would be than the statist crapitalism we have today they like to say, “Show me one example of a truly free market that works!”
OK… the internet!
While governments do try to stifle it whenever they can they still, really, have no control over the internet in any meaningful way. It is almost completely anarchic.
When was the last time you saw someone come into a restaurant looking stressed and irritated saying, “Goddamit, I HATE the internet!”
Perhaps one or two… Bill Cosby probably isn’t a fan.
But almost everybody else loves the internet. That’s because, since it is a free market, the amount of innovations are incredible.
Even simple things like Skype are a great example. I may be dating myself here but when I was younger a phone call from Kanada to the USSA was a few dollars per minute! Now, however, worldwide videocalling is totally free! That’s the market at work.
zerohedge.com / by Mark St.Cyr / 11/22/2014 19:44 -0500
First off let me make this statement plain and simple before one reads any further. This is not a hit piece, nor an effort to take swipes at Tony Robbins or worse, some feeble attempt at click-baiting.
I have been a true fan since he first hit the motivational stage decades ago. However, just as I am what many would call an Apple™ “fan-boy” (which I am) it doesn’t stop me from pointing out issues where I see a compelling reason to do so.
As I’ve stated before, I mean it in a manner the same way one would criticize a family member when they are either doing something that doesn’t make sense, or something other. Nothing more, nothing less.
I don’t know Mr. Robbins personally, but for this discussion please excuse the liberty I take with using “Tony.” It just makes the writing easier.
Like many I was intrigued to see Tony has a new book. His first in over 20 years. When I read the title, “MONEY Master the Game: 7 Simple Steps to Financial Freedom,” (2014 Simon & Shuster) I was both intrigued as well as apprehensive. Why?
It’s basically this: I’m also in the same field (e.g. entrepreneur, motivational speaker, coach, et al) as Tony. And my writings and thoughts on money or markets sometimes appear in some of the same arenas. e.g., Business Insider™, MarketWatch™, et al. Which is precisely where I read his thoughts as well as a few questions he was asking some of today’s Wall Street titans. e.g., Warren Buffet, Paul Tudor Jones, Carl Icahn and others.
Most markets continue to show some strength, albeit slowly. We continue to march higher and higher regardless of the many people calling for a correction. While a small pullback would be great, the simple amount of scepticism tells us that there is a ton of cash on the side-lines waiting to come in.
We may have gotten the spark needed to suck in some of that money Friday, when China cut interest rates.
As for the metals, they remain strong and moving off lows, although it has been a bit of a wild ride, which always brings out the regulars who just love to tell me I’m wrong. I didn’t bother writing them back Friday after Wednesday’s large decline was erased and bested !
The markets try to shake as many people out as they can. To be sure Wednesday sure did do that. But once the day was done, all gold did was test and hold the breakout level which is a strong sign.
This infographic, courtesy of VisualCapitalist, nicely summarizes the upcoming Gold Referendum in Switzerland: Why is it important, what is at stake, why it could be a game changer and trend change. It also puts the Swiss gold reserves into perspective and compares, in relative terms, how Switzerland has much more gold per capita than any other country. However, it used to be an even bigger holder of the yellow metal. In 2000, the SNB held 2,500 tonnes of gold and it has also been the biggest national seller since.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 11/22/2014 18:59 -0500
As The West shows its fortitude (and apparent philanthropy) with mere 32-degree Fahrenheit ice-bucket-challenges, Russian chemistry professor Yury Zhdanov goes 290-degrees better…
Nikolay Novosyolov, founder of a science popularization project, poured a bucket of liquid nitrogen, which temperature was minus 322 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 197 Celcuis), as part of the #IceBucketChallenge campaign, taking the world’s social media charity craze to a whole new level.
gold-eagle.com / Richard (Rick) Mills / November 22, 2014
HUI/Gold Ratio, National Inflation Association
When the HGR is rising, gold stocks are outperforming gold. Conversely when the HGR is falling, gold is outperforming gold stocks.
Since 1996, the HUI/Gold ratio has averaged 0.363. The all time low HUI/Gold ratio was set on November 17, 2000 when it bottomed at 0.135.
The HGR closed Wednesday November 20th at .148.
The above data tells me gold mining stocks are extremely undervalued and way oversold compared to the price of gold. Can I make some money off that bit of knowledge, am I looking at a potentially profitable investment into a few well chosen gold company’s, do I wait a bit or pull the trigger now?
This is an excerpt from the daily StockCharts.com newsletter to premium subscribers, which offers daily a detailed market analysis (recommended service).
There is clearly an upswing present since early November, but defining this upswing is a challenge so a broad in the Raff Regression Channel. It does a pretty good job of defining direction and accounting for volatility, which we are seeing now. The lower trend line ends around 112 and I will mark support here. The long-term trend for gold is still down and GLD has a big resistance zone in the 115-116.50 area.
zerohedge.com / by Lauri Vaittinen / 11/22/2014 18:15 -0500
It is surprising how little attention academic literature has devoted to understand equity market returns around the turn of the month, despite the observations of Lakonishok and Smidt (1988) and McConnell and Xu (2008) among others that most of the returns accrue during a four-day period, from the last trading day to the third trading day of the month.
We find that the market returns are abnormally high also on the three days before the turn of the month.
In fact, combining the two observations, we find that since 1926, one could have held the S&P 500 index for only seven business days a month and pocketed almost the entire market return with forty percent lower volatility compared to a buy and hold strategy.
"The best way to defend against the ongoing deadly storm is to purchase Gold & Silver bars & coins, and to exit the entire paper money system of stocks, bonds, and big bank certificates. Paper wealth will not survive the storm and its climax well. The storm has entered a final climax phase. Great changes are coming. The highly volatile financial markets, almost all of them, signal a storm with nasty resolution. The only protection from bank failures, account confiscations, lost life savings, converted pensions, and economic distress will be Gold & Silver ownership in metal form. " - Jim Willie