Silver News - Crunch Time Draws Nearer

[II DALTON II]

I don't daytrade Silver. I chart it because I enjoy TA. I chart many things.

[EL34]

(08-23-2012 12:17 PM)II DALTON II Wrote:  I don't daytrade Silver. I chart it because I enjoy TA. I chart many things.

That's what I thought and that's why I asked, just to be sure

[II DALTON II]

You could say I'm a cycles guy, similar to what Mike Maloney describes himself as. I chart for the fun of it and to try and determine the lifespan of certain economic trends.

[Ivan]

Speaking of Mike Maloney, he predicts the last deflation before hyperinflation. For deflation to occur i think a nation needs to default and trigger house of cards, before ben can start printing. do you guys still waiting for that deflation?

[Viper_99]

If we default on everything -banks, government, stocks. How could you have inflation?? We would all be too broke to feed ourselves! I think we would have depression in that case.

[II DALTON II]

Here's my updated long term playout chart. Things are progressing nicely.

[Viper_99]

So let me take a stab at this - you think or your chart shows we should stay above $30 but below $45 in a green channel. Purple is a worst case scenario and we could drop to $25. The yellow lines mean nothing to me. Not to sure about the black lines either

[victor kruger]

Thats how i read it too, personally id like to see the black line breached

[AgSoul]

(10-09-2012 09:14 PM)victor kruger Wrote:  Thats how i read it too, personally id like to see the black line breached

Me too but I doubt there would be any sellers at that price...it's nice to dream though..

[II DALTON II]

(10-09-2012 09:07 PM)Viper_99 Wrote:  So let me take a stab at this - you think or your chart shows we should stay above $30 but below $45 in a green channel. Purple is a worst case scenario and we could drop to $25. The yellow lines mean nothing to me. Not to sure about the black lines either

Sorry, I forgot to add the key to this chart. Here is an old chart with it on so you know what is what.



Recent history shows that there are 2 breakout tests before a true bull run occurs.

[II DALTON II]

Well Silver got hit square in the nuts today.

Don't fret though, remember that we are in a wide trading range, just look at that green wedge.

I suspect we will get hit by a lot of orders at around $30 and below (if it goes below) similar to the frantic buys that came in at the $26 range.

With QE3 laying a safety net below the market there is no reason for a massive dump. Traders will swing it to make $$$ throughout this election period, playing on each others fears. This is ripe time for them to make (and lose) a lot of dough.

[II DALTON II]

Here's my latest update.



There's a nice wick forming this month.

[II DALTON II]

I've been going back through the news archives and old forum posts to see how people thought and behaved during the 2006 - 2008 period. IMO the sentiment is pretty similar to right now and so I expect the market to behave in a similar manner. Bearing in mind that Bernanke has put a floor under the market for the foreseeable future I'd expect to see a drawn out wedge form as the PTB kick the can down the road.

Right now I see more uincertainty than fear or optmism so I wouldn't expect anything too exciting just yet. Keep an eye on oil as that is what will lead the charge if it can break above resisitance. Below is an interesting chart from Tyler Durden.



Can you see the wedge forming between 2010 and now? Oil is gonna make a move in 2013 by the looks of it, Silver and others should follow taking Silver higher up into it's own wedge. Resistance for silver in this time is $37.50.

[Ivan]

Great stuff, thanks delton. Also I see same separation in oil and gas pump during 06-09 and now 11-1?. Could we get that next big spike? Time will tell

[II DALTON II]

It shows that we are gonna most likely repeat that cycle. Oil leads the charge when it comes to industrial commodities.

[II DALTON II]

Wow I just noticed this.

[Viper_99]

What did you notice? How is the USD and the Pound connected to silver? The same trend channel?

[II DALTON II]

Similar trading mentality between them.

[Dom2012]

The price has tested and failed to break the 50 day EMA.... we saw something similar the other week and we had a nice break to the upside, today could be forming the same pattern!

   

[II DALTON II]

You're right Dom, looks similar.

Wait and see what the Fed announce tomorrow.

[Dom2012]

OMG OMG MANIPULATION !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

69,660 CONTACTS TRADED IN 15 MINUTES, THAT'S NEARLY 350 MILLION OUNCES !!!!! THAT'S OVER 1/2 ANNUAL MINE SUPPLY, THIS IS CLEARLY MANIPULATION !!!!!!!!

OOOOOOOOH wait a minute!, I forgot they dont go screaming the "cartel" is at work when the price goes up.....haha ..................gerks !

   

[II DALTON II]

Silver is testing the bottom of that long term large wedge. It should hold on the monthly chart, I wouldn't be scared if a wick or two went outside the lines, it is the close that counts.