JP Morgan Increases Registered Silver Inventories 500% OVERNIGHT!

[ZyPhReX]

Wanted to listen to everyone's opinion on this:

"Something BIG is going down. First Blythe appeared on CNBC 2 weeks ago claiming that JP Morgan holds its metals positions on behalf of clients, then the CFTC moved 1 step closer to finally implementing position limits last week with their meeting discussing swaps, and today we have the kicker:

JP Morgan adjusted 5 million ounces of silver into dealer (registered) vaults Thursday, increasing their registered inventories 500% OVERNIGHT!!!

COMEX WAREHOUSE SILVER INVENTORY UPDATE 4/27/12"

Source: http://networkedblogs.com/wY0ih


Thoughts ?

[Mojofabulous]

What is the difference between registered and eligible again? I always forget. I don't follow this stuff, how big is that..really? It sounds huge, but there's no context. Has this happened before? What was the biggest prior overnight increase?

[AgShaman]

Registered represents market makers large commercials (bullion banks)....sitting in vaults, with the ability to be delivered within one month from 1st notice day (when "long" speculators pony up the full amount of cash to be debited from their accounts aka "standing for delivery)

Eligible is client held....they may be speculators or 'largish' hedge funds trading on the casino and using the bullion banks warehousing system to hold inventories on their behalf.

IMO....the regeistered has fluctuated in the 28-35 million range the last couple of years....but the actual available supply is only about half that amount. Last year in this same time period....silver received a serious beat down (due to margin hikes to disuade Comex participants)

I think April 30th is first notice day this year...and May is a delivery month for silver....so I think it nothing but a pre-emptive show of force by JPM....meaning, we gots da silver...and we'll be happy to chop you off at the knees if you think we don't.

They don't want last years roller coaster where the all time high is pushed up by speculators on the Comex that knew they didn't have the metal to deliver....but didn't want it themselves....rather were just looking to extort a cash premium off of the "casino bet" that the house was not capitalized well enough to service all the gamblers.

Become your own bank..."Stash n Stockpile Weapons of Stack Construction!"

[ZyPhReX]

The registered Silver is bullion ready to stand for delivery for those that went long. Eligible Silver is the Silver that is stored in the CRIMEX warehouse for a specific private party, but which is not available for delivery to contracts.

Am not sure, but believe that the next delivery date for registered Silver is May 1st. Don't quote me on that though!

In respect to this possibly happening before, I do not think it has. At least not within the last year, and not an increase in JPMorgan's inventory this substantial. It was my understanding that they were considerably short for quite some time until they began to cover their shorts bit by bit. I could be wrong though. JPMorgan has had a couple of hefty deposits within the last 6 months or so. Then again, since they apparently didn't have 'much', anything might be deemed sizable. Will attempt to ascertain additional information regarding this though.

My curiosity is more along the lines of what type of impact might a considerable amount of deliveries have on Silver if any. Just find it rather peculiar that JPMorgan is increasing their Silver inventory right before May 1st.

[ZyPhReX]

AgShaman hit it right on the mark Mojo.

And thanks for the input AgShaman. Much appreciated.

[AgShaman]

(04-27-2012 10:29 PM)ZyPhReX Wrote:  AgShaman hit it right on the mark Mojo.

And thanks for the input AgShaman. Much appreciated.

You betcha...no worries.

By Comex rules...they have 30 days from first notice day (April 30th)...to make good on the contract.

This also means that they have 30 days to manipulate the price of silver lower and entice those that are patiently waiting for their warehouse receipts....to be convinced to "settle" under an alternative method. The Comex rules allows for both parties to "engineer" alternatives outside the realm of plain jane comex physical delivery. It is in this 30 day period....that "extortionistas" like the Turd F. followers will be attempting to extract a cash premium from the JP Morgue. Lotsa games being played in that 30 day window. Also, by Comex rule 104.36 enacted on Feb. 18, 2005....the exchange has set up a "clause" where ETF's can be substituted as a legitimate means of "settling" contracts. Many have speculated that the bullion banks have been using shares of SLV to clear out these long contracts on the Comex...vs...straight up cash....soze the gambler must then take a couple steps further to really "scalp" their prize. Confirmation is "loch ness" due to the confidentiality agreements arranged outside the phone lines of the Comex.

There's been a culture of secrecy that's gone on for decades. You want to play ball with the big players...they will secure your silence. That's why so many lawsuits against JPM, Govt Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley, UBS....always get swept away with a paltry fine without guilt ever having to be admitted. Criminals built that casino....they have their bases covered.

Become your own bank..."Stash n Stockpile Weapons of Stack Construction!"

[Mojofabulous]

Agshaman, i am tempted to try and figure out a way to give you 50 rep for those two responses. Thanks to both of you for answering my question.

[kramerprammer]

I've already given both agshaman and zyphrex 1 rep each for this thread and I linked the web page as a Facebook status update. The information in this thread is fantastic! Keep up the great work

[parkster500]

In other words is this a good thing or a bad thing for our silver stacks?!

Dumbass

[ZyPhReX]

Thanks Mojo & Kramerprammer. Here is additional information.

On Friday November 21th 2011 JP Morgan moved 613,738 ounces into their registered vaults.

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/1...14000.html


Then on Wednesday November 16th 2011, The Morgue increased their registered Silver inventory with a deposit of 1,103,280 ounces.

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/1...ilver.html

JP Morgan’s registered inventories tripled from 557,265 ounces to 1,660,545 ounces at that time.

Due to those actions, it was postulated by SilverDoc that there might be substantial delivery demands for December.

Yesterday, the registered silver inventories at JP Morgan went from 1,268,416 to 6,260,300.

Keep in mind, there is also the elusive 1.4 million ounces “missing” from the MFGlobal fiasco and am not certain what type of role that variable will play in this scenario, if any.

Could not find any other substantial deposits into registered vaults besides those carried out by TheMorgue.

Parkster500, am still attempting to figure it all out, but I venture to guess that long-term this is good situation for stackers. The main reason is because silver moving into registered vaults is silver ready for delivery, which takes it off the market if people want to take posession of their bullion on a delivery month like May 1st.

Another reason is that JPMorgan didn’t have any substantial amount of Silver in their registered vaults for the greater part of last year, 2011. JP Morgan and their cohorts [all who collude in the manipulation] were still able to crush the price with impunity several times last year, which leads to the next question.

If they didn’t cover their shorts when Silver was nigh $50 an ounce last year, why are they doing it now? What’s the difference? The dilemma is almost inversed when one considers the situation. They stood to lose a lot of ‘money’ if they did not have as much silver back then as they do now. And yet now, the price is considerably lower, and they are moving a lot of bullion into their registered vaults, which can stand for delivery. I would have thought the opposite would be the case.

But take it with a grain of salt. Nothing is ever this simple, especially in a manipulation-laden market. Am just speculating out loud is all.

Hope that it all makes sense and it helps puts things into perspective.

[ZyPhReX]

(04-27-2012 10:59 PM)AgShaman Wrote:  

(04-27-2012 10:29 PM)ZyPhReX Wrote:  AgShaman hit it right on the mark Mojo.

And thanks for the input AgShaman. Much appreciated.

You betcha...no worries.

By Comex rules...they have 30 days from first notice day (April 30th)...to make good on the contract.

This also means that they have 30 days to manipulate the price of silver lower and entice those that are patiently waiting for their warehouse receipts....to be convinced to "settle" under an alternative method. The Comex rules allows for both parties to "engineer" alternatives outside the realm of plain jane comex physical delivery. It is in this 30 day period....that "extortionistas" like the Turd F. followers will be attempting to extract a cash premium from the JP Morgue. Lotsa games being played in that 30 day window. Also, by Comex rule 104.36 enacted on Feb. 18, 2005....the exchange has set up a "clause" where ETF's can be substituted as a legitimate means of "settling" contracts. Many have speculated that the bullion banks have been using shares of SLV to clear out these long contracts on the Comex...vs...straight up cash....soze the gambler must then take a couple steps further to really "scalp" their prize. Confirmation is "loch ness" due to the confidentiality agreements arranged outside the phone lines of the Comex.

There's been a culture of secrecy that's gone on for decades. You want to play ball with the big players...they will secure your silence. That's why so many lawsuits against JPM, Govt Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley, UBS....always get swept away with a paltry fine without guilt ever having to be admitted. Criminals built that casino....they have their bases covered.

Become your own bank..."Stash n Stockpile Weapons of Stack Construction!"

AG, does the 30 days they have to manipulate the price apply only for the notice day of April 1st, or would that time period affect both the April 1st notice day & the May deliveries?

Am querying because am still trying to comprehend all this.

[AgShaman]

(04-28-2012 11:42 AM)ZyPhReX Wrote:  

(04-27-2012 10:59 PM)AgShaman Wrote:  

(04-27-2012 10:29 PM)ZyPhReX Wrote:  AgShaman hit it right on the mark Mojo.

And thanks for the input AgShaman. Much appreciated.

You betcha...no worries.

By Comex rules...they have 30 days from first notice day (April 30th)...to make good on the contract.

This also means that they have 30 days to manipulate the price of silver lower and entice those that are patiently waiting for their warehouse receipts....to be convinced to "settle" under an alternative method. The Comex rules allows for both parties to "engineer" alternatives outside the realm of plain jane comex physical delivery. It is in this 30 day period....that "extortionistas" like the Turd F. followers will be attempting to extract a cash premium from the JP Morgue. Lotsa games being played in that 30 day window. Also, by Comex rule 104.36 enacted on Feb. 18, 2005....the exchange has set up a "clause" where ETF's can be substituted as a legitimate means of "settling" contracts. Many have speculated that the bullion banks have been using shares of SLV to clear out these long contracts on the Comex...vs...straight up cash....soze the gambler must then take a couple steps further to really "scalp" their prize. Confirmation is "loch ness" due to the confidentiality agreements arranged outside the phone lines of the Comex.

There's been a culture of secrecy that's gone on for decades. You want to play ball with the big players...they will secure your silence. That's why so many lawsuits against JPM, Govt Sachs, Citi, Morgan Stanley, UBS....always get swept away with a paltry fine without guilt ever having to be admitted. Criminals built that casino....they have their bases covered.

Become your own bank..."Stash n Stockpile Weapons of Stack Construction!"

AG, does the 30 days they have to manipulate the price apply only for the notice day of April 1st, or would that time period affect both the April 1st notice day & the May deliveries?

Am querying because am still trying to comprehend all this.

The delivery month of May is traded in April...where traders are "locking in" contract prices. I imagine some of them just recently "locked in" at the lower 30's and they maybe wanting the metal...so they'll have to have the full amount for the contract (150 grand roughly) in their accounts on 1st notice day (April 30th) to prove to the exchange, and the "short" sellers, that they are standing for delivery. Some will just keep servicing the maintenance margin requirement and "roll" their contracts into the July timeframe, which is another delivery month if I'm thinking correctly.

As far as the non delivery month of April....I don't see that as an issue, but rather just a smallish number of contracts being serviced for people that actually need the metal. If they were standing for delivery in a "off" month vs a primary delivery month....the numbers standing are far less...so silver vigilantism on the comex would probably not take place in that period of time.

The 30 days from 1st notice day is what people don't often understand. If you take a look at last year this time. Silver was getting pushed up close to $50....but those contracts were "locked" in at much lower pricing. This is where people get lost in the numbers. The "long" speculators were betting that the bullion banks didn't have the full "registered" amount available for delivery, like they had posted in the ledgers of the Comex system. These traders, in my view, were not interested in getting silver delivered....they were interested in extorting a chunk of fiat outta the bullion banks. But if they pushed up the price much higher than their "locked in" contract price....their extortion money is ballooned even further. It's been speculated that the bullion banks were paying a minimum of 25% premium in the past, above the contract prices that were standing for delivery. I think this was what the paper traders on the long side were chasing once again last April....but their greed bit them in the ass. The price got pushed up hella fast....and that's when the CME rolled out margin hike after margin hike....and started picking off the Remora before 1st notice day....smashing the price, and chopping off their chances for a big fiat payday. The delivery months before that margin hike smack down last year were a bit different....and the bullion banks used the entire 30 days to service the smaller fish with delivering metal....and the ones they couldn't scare off stood firm and most likely got their premium bonus.

It's just amusement really....because many are cheering on the price rises....and not seeing the dynamics taking place behind the scenes. The "longs" pushing on the other side can be just as destructive as the bullion banks suppressing the prices of the metals. Their greed induces volatility via the casino gambling on the Comex....but Joe 6pack that is new to the game and is buying smallish amounts doesn't see these games being played behind the scenes when they are buying small physical amounts. They are just seeing the madddening volatility when they bought physical at $45 and watched it get smashed down to $30 a few months later. They get scared off and shakin' out.

Crap...got off on tangents....sorry if I didn't cover your question. First notice day comes at the end of the month...then the "shorts", by comex rules, are allowed 30 days to deliver the metal (or arrange via their own private side agreements...some other arrangement of settling the contract). This 30 day window....is where they could be using "stuffing" to manipulate the price down and scare the "longs" standing for delivery (and are waiting.....) to think that they may have to accept the physical....or perhaps a smaller premium settlement...or no premium at all. This is why people track the COT reports....to see how many are "standing" firm...how many are "rolling" into the next delivery month....and comparing it to what the amount is "registered" in the vaults as available for delivery.

Those of us that have been involved longer....make the most of the opps provided by the volatility....so who really knows when it will come to an end? It's a fun show to watch.

Become your own bank..."Stash n Stockpile Weapons of Stack Construction!"

[AgShaman]

(04-28-2012 03:36 AM)Mojofabulous Wrote:  Agshaman, i am tempted to try and figure out a way to give you 50 rep for those two responses. Thanks to both of you for answering my question.

Hahaha....well thanks for that.

It's a big silver community....and people gravitate towards the subjects within it....that interest them the most.

I'm amazed at your knowledge of the newly Mint offerings and semi numis and production numbers within that realm and figuring timelines for price appreciation. You obviously study your "favorite" subject just as much as others with their own. I don't participate much in your threads because I'm really just reading and learning....not that I wouldn't add something if I had something to add....I'm just not that well versed in that cross section of the PM's to be interjecting anything of value....but I appreciate all you Cats droppin' some knowledge on that subject.

I like the research in the Comex system and the ETF's...as well as the CME group's DCM exchanges.

One of the strange things is the inception date of the ETF's and the institution of the Comex rule 104.36. Not even 30 days separates the start of Comex trading the iShares Gold ETF....and the rule to allow for contracts on the Comex to be settled via shares of ETF's vs fiat cash. Then the rule was amended a month later from what I've come across....to allow for a broader range of baskets of securities "termed" equal in value....and related enough to be allowed as "Swaps" for physical....again, alternate means of settling contracts other than cash.

When people refer to the CME Group's Comex as a casino house for gamblers....it's got a "Vegas" dark creativity to it even more than they may realize. The CME also owns the CBOT and NYMEX exchanges....and for years you could get mini's in silver delivered on the CBOT....but when they got absorbed by the CME group...they changed it into a paper trading platform only...no metal delivery for a 1000 oz contract. Then they put forth a 5000 oz contract to replace it....which, in the end....it funnels trading activity in the direction they wanted everything to go when the bull market started 10 years ago....more paper traders, and less physical.

People are wise to hedge against all these derivatives casinos....there's a good chance for some serious gnashing of teeth and leaps outta the windows of tall buildings in the future.

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-informatio...-4942.html

Tokyo's commodity exchange also accomodated in similar fashion to allow for ETF swaps as another way to "settle"

http://www.tocom.or.jp/news/2008/20081105-1.html

And lackeys at the CFTC receive their "marching orders" from the CME Group....

http://www.cftc.gov/files/submissions/ru...mex001.pdf

Become your own bank..."Stash n Stockpile Weapons of Stack Construction!"

[Mojofabulous]

Study that which you love, indeed :-). I had no idea there was a rule in place to exchange comex contracts for etf shares.