Interesting, 2 ounce Dragons are now cheaper than 1 ounce Dragons

[nodebt]

I think it's interesting that the 2 ounce dragons are now less than the 1 ounce.
The 2010 year of the Tiger 2 ounce coin is selling for more than double the 1 ounce coin at Apmex.

I think the 2 ounce dragon is a much better buy at these prices.

[Viper_99]

It took me a while to find this post from Mojo, but I think this is the reason the two oz are cheaper.

":No mintage limit applies to 1 kilo, 10oz, 5oz, 2oz and 1/2oz coins. Except
for the 1 kilo release, production of these coins will close at the end of
2012 and The Perth Mint will declare each coin's official mintage.
Production of 1 kilo coins will cease at the end of the series.
A maximum of 500 10 kilo coins will be produced on a mint-to-order
basis. However, production will close at the end of 2012, when the coin's
actual mintage will be declared.
The Perth Mint will produce up to 300,000 1oz coins. Production will
cease when the mintage is fully sold or at the end of the series, whichever
comes first.:"

There are only 300,00 1 oz coins and everything else has unlimited mintage. Hope this helps!

[nodebt]

I understand the "limited" mintage but.....

The history of Perth's Lunar Series sales show 1 ounce coins amounting to in the 50,000-100,000 range while the 2 ounce coin sales amount to only in the 6,000-30,000 range.

Unless Perth starts reminting older coins the 2 ounce coins are more rare, and have been, throughout the entire series.

Also, online dealers are charging more for the 2 ounce coins (even the original 2000 limited mintage dragon coin of 30,000 is selling for much less than the 2 ounce). These dealers probably know that people willing to pay more for the 2 ounce coin otherwise they would be asking more for the 1 ounce, correct?

"Maybe" people will pay more for the 1 ounce dragon than a 2 ounce dragon in the future but I don't think so. It just seems like a gamble especially when you can pick up a 2 ounce coin right now for less. Also, if sales history repeats then the 2 ounce coin will likely be more rare than the 1 ounce. And in the in the worst case scenario you'd get more even if you had to sell at spot.

At these prices I think I'm going to get me a few 2 ounce dragons.

Apmex is asking $71.90 (1-9 coins), cheaper if you buy more.
Gainesville is $79.98
Provident Metals Sold Out

Usually Gainesville is less or much closer than Apmex.

That's quite a difference.

[agsilverbear]

I wonder how many of the 1 oz have been sold? Perhaps sales of the 1 oz are way ahead of average for the year and there has been relatively light demand for the 2 oz, but that's just a guess. It might be worth it to pick up a few..

[nodebt]

(05-13-2012 09:15 AM)agsilverbear Wrote:  I wonder how many of the 1 oz have been sold? Perhaps sales of the 1 oz are way ahead of average for the year and there has been relatively light demand for the 2 oz, but that's just a guess. It might be worth it to pick up a few..

I would say with all the dragon hype there were probably more dragons sold than the previous years of lunar coins (just a guess, no data to back it up). I would also assume, given past sales hisotry, many more 1 ounce have sold versus 2 ounce (again, just a guess).

Look at the sales over the last 10 years, the 2 ounce coins have not sold nearly as much. I have heard people say that the 1 ounce coins are more popular. Maybe more popular to buy but they aren't fetching a higher price per ounce. Looking at the older lunar 2 ounce coins that have sold on ebay the 2 ounce coins have sold for appr double the price as the 1 ounce.

Here's a link to the 1999-2010 sales. (Scroll down to the silver chart).
http://lynncoins.com/Australia_lunar_ser...igures.htm

I just think the 2 ounce is an overall safer bet. Now I'm debating on whether to buy now or wait a bit longer to see if the downtrend continues.

[agsilverbear]

Useful info, thanks. I notice the trend for % for sales of 2 oz compared to 1 oz has a steep decline over time, which makes sense with the price trend rising year over year. People clearly prefer 1 oz coins but my feeling is that the 1/2 oz will gain in popularity in percentage terms over the 1 oz as price rises. I think the popularity of larger coins will continue to steeply decline in popularity as a function of price. Not to say the 2 oz Dragon is not a decent s-numi play because I think all the 2012 Dragons will benefit from their historical significance. If we had any dry powder I would encourage hubby to make a purchase of the 2 oz Dragons. We purchased a decent number of the 1/2 oz Dragons so I can't complain..

[Mojofabulous]

1 oz are sold out, have been practically since day one.

Mintage is only part of the equation. Another part is demand.

[agsilverbear]

(05-13-2012 01:01 PM)Mojofabulous Wrote:  1 oz are sold out, have been practically since day one.

Mintage is only part of the equation. Another part is demand.

Yeah, you're right. I didn't pay attention when they came out because I didn't like the dragons at first.

[nodebt]

(05-13-2012 11:46 AM)agsilverbear Wrote:  Useful info, thanks. I notice the trend for % for sales of 2 oz compared to 1 oz has a steep decline over time, which makes sense with the price trend rising year over year. People clearly prefer 1 oz coins but my feeling is that the 1/2 oz will gain in popularity in percentage terms over the 1 oz as price rises. I think the popularity of larger coins will continue to steeply decline in popularity as a function of price. Not to say the 2 oz Dragon is not a decent s-numi play because I think all the 2012 Dragons will benefit from their historical significance. If we had any dry powder I would encourage hubby to make a purchase of the 2 oz Dragons. We purchased a decent number of the 1/2 oz Dragons so I can't complain..

Maybe may people prefer 1 oz coins over 2 oz but they're paying appr twice as much for 2 oz.

I agree with the 1/2 oz, I bought some also. Also, I can't find the 1/2 for cheaper than what I paid even though spot is a few dollars less since I bought.

(05-13-2012 01:01 PM)Mojofabulous Wrote:  1 oz are sold out, have been practically since day one.

Mintage is only part of the equation. Another part is demand.

Unless I'm reading it wrong Apmex has over 7,755 1 oz. coins right now for $74.99. The 2 oz are as cheap as $68.88 but you have to buy 50 or more.

I agree with the demand, no one will know what people will be willing to pay years from now. BUT, looking at the 2000 series I the 2 ounce are selling for almost twice the 1 ounce. This year could be different as people aren't going to be as willing to sell their 1 ounce for much less than they paid.

Anyway, I have a buy price in mind depending on spot. These will be my next purchase unless the price changes significantly.

[Mojofabulous]

When i say sold out, i mean from the perth mint. Meaning, the max mintage has already been sold by the original mint. Secondary market is the only way to obtain them now.

[nodebt]

(05-14-2012 09:40 AM)Mojofabulous Wrote:  When i say sold out, i mean from the perth mint. Meaning, the max mintage has already been sold by the original mint. Secondary market is the only way to obtain them now.

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