Above-ground supply of silver/ Martin Armstrong

[mossmoon]

From Martin Armstrong's paper on the silver manipulation stories in 1998, right around Buffett's purchase. This caught my eye:

(My emphasis)
"The passionate believers in silver prefer to ignore the real facts about this metal. One of the primary reasons we remain long-term bearish for silver relative to gold is based upon the real facts. Unlike base metals, the majority of silver that has been mined over the centuries STILL exists. Of the more than 10 billion ounces of silver coin minted worldwide during the past 120 years, the vast majority again STILL exists. Analysts who try to put together statistics on above ground stockpiles do NOT have the facts on warehouses in Europe that do NOT report on their holdings. There is NO consideration about how much silver coin is still held by the public. All we can do in this regard is look at the official mintage records of governments worldwide. Throughout history, there has never been a single successful silver "squeeze". No matter how much money someone has, there is simply far more silver in the hands of the average man on the street to stop any rally as has been the case with central banks and gold. It has ALWAYS been this hoard of silver that pours out in response to higher prices. It was this hoard of silver in the hands of the public that caused the collapse of the market back in 1980. The Hunts had more than 20% of total world supply (Buffett has only 20% of one-year's mine production) when the public responded in droves. When the dust settled, so much silver had poured into the above ground stocks that the price of silver has yet to recover DESPITE an annual deficit between industrial consumption and mining over the past 18 years."


I understand that 1998 was a while ago given the developments in silver demand and the likelihood of "peak silver," but 10 billion ounces is still a big number. And Armstrong is a credible guy even if silver isn't his area of expertise. I hate to rely on credibilty but the biggest open question out there is above-ground supply, so shadow inventories in Europe raises an eyebrow.

David Morgan has given a good case for a high estimate of 2 billion total, including industry.

What makes you confident the number is not much, much higher?

http://www.gold-speculator.com/martin-ar...998-a.html