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FOMC Minutes from September 2017 Meeting and Gold

sunshineprofits.com / ARKADIUSZ SIEROŃ / OCTOBER 12, 2017

Yesterday, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting were released. What do they say about the Fed’s stance and what do they mean for the gold market?

How can we summarize the recent FOMC minutes? As earlier this year, the FOMC members agreed that “the labor market had continued to strengthen and that economic activity had been rising moderately so far this year”. The U.S. central bankers also noted that the economic impact of recent hurricanes would only be short-lived. But the most important discussion concerned subdued inflation. Many participants still believed that stubbornly low inflation resulted from either cyclical or one-time factors, so they expected higher inflation in the medium term. However, some members discussed the possibility that secular trends were responsible for the lack of price pressures and several of them:

“noted that in preparing their projections for this meeting, they had taken on board the likelihood that convergence to the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent inflation objective might take somewhat longer than they anticipated earlier.”

It, thus, seems that there is a creeping dovish revolution at the Fed, as it is fed up with persistently low inflation. The key paragraph of the minutes – as it suggests the possibility of a more dovish U.S. central bank in the future – is probably the following:

“Nevertheless, many participants expressed concern that the low inflation readings this year might reflect not only transitory factors, but also the influence of developments that could prove more persistent, and it was noted that some patience in removing policy accommodation while assessing trends in inflation was warranted. A few of these participants thought that no further increases in the federal funds rate were called for in the near term or that the upward trajectory of the federal funds rate might appropriately be quite shallow”.

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