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Empire State Manufacturing: Another Strong Regional Report Bearing Little Resemblance to Reality

mishtalk.com /  Mike “Mish” Shedlock / July 17, 2017 

I have not commented on the regional manufacturing reports much lately because they bear no resemblance to reality.

Setting reality aside, let’s take a look at the Empire State Survey which kicks off another month of regional surveys.

The Econoday consensus estimate for the Empire State region diffusion index was 15. The actual report was +9.8. Econoday praised this meaningless report as welcome.

A little less strength is probably welcome in the New York Fed’s manufacturing sample where gains at times have been unsustainable. The Empire State index came in at 9.8 in July vs Econoday’s consensus for 15.0 and against June’s very hot 19.8.

New orders are strong at 13.3 but down nearly 5 points from June while unfilled orders moved back into contraction to minus 4.7. Employment slowed to 3.7 for a 4 point dip while shipments also slowed but are still very solid at 10.5.

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