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Bonds & Bullion Tumble As Stocks Stumble On Macro Weakness / by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2014 16:05

Treasury yields pushed 4-5bps higher on the day – the worst in 3 weeks – as yesterday’s test of 2014 lows saw some reactive bond-selling. Asian and EU PMIs sent stocks to record-er highs but absymal US PMI and housing data took the shine off the [...]

Is This The Best Investing Strategy For The New “Free Lunch” Normal? / by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2014 20:31

In a world in which there is no longer any risk, in which the Fed itself is the Chief Risk Officer of the S&P 500 itself (because either the Fed and central banks will keep on injecting “modest” liquidity and keep rates at [...]

Stocks Shrug At Global Disorder, Squeezed Back To Record Highs / by Tyler Durden on 07/18/2014 16:03

Just imagine how high stocks would be if more jets were shot down in Ukraine, more ground operations were unleashed in Gaza, more sanctions were placed on global growth, more European and US macro data disappointed, more job cuts at major firms, and more [...]

The Market’s Crystal Ball Is Giving Us A Warning Sign, Be Cautious On Stocks Over The Next Few Months, The Perfect Storm is Coming. / July 17, 2014

Want to know where stocks are headed next? Take a look at this…

From Jeff Clark, editor, S&A Short Report:

The market’s crystal ball is giving us a warning sign.

In 2009, I first wrote about using the price action in [...]

Gold Up Most In A Month, VIX Spikes Most In 6 Months Tyler Durden on 07/17/2014 12:12

Despite CNBC’s best afforts to play down this “may have been shot down” news of 295 dead on a Malaysian Airlines jet in Ukraine, markets are turmoiling. New lows for the day in stocks and bond yields have been accompnied by a surge in Gold (up over [...]

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Blue Skies, At Least Until September / July 16, 2014

eBay reported better than expected numbers after the bell. What a surprise.Stocks had an upward drift today, in a dull market trade. The VIX shows the markets are once again complacent. I would expect them to stay on a generally rosy trajectory until the Alibaba IPO can be spurted [...]

Strategist Warns SKEW “Is Flashing A Big Warning Signal For Stocks” / by Tyler Durden on 07/15/2014 15:39

As stocks have pushed to new record highs in recent weeks, and VIX has dropped accordingly, the cost of protecting desperate asset managers from a far bigger collapse in prices has been soaring. We first noted the record high price of SKEW – a [...]

The VIX Seasonal Summer Slumber Is Over: It’s All Uphill From Here / by Tyler Durden on 07/11/2014 13:55

When even the Fed is lamenting the VIX’s summer doldrums, having recently printing at all time lows on an unadjusted basis, one knows that Kevin Henry’s VIX selling skills will soon be obsolete. In fact he may even have to learn how to, gasp, buy VIX (with [...]

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Stutter Step / July 10, 2014

Stocks dumped today then came back in the afternoon. That is called a ‘stutter step’ in US football.This is why I do not like to short a dull market, except in quick advantageous hits, widely interspersed.We are in a symmetrical triangle on the NDX 100, and we will need [...]

What Has Driven The VIX Higher In The Past? / by Tyler Durden on 07/09/2014 15:25

A nervous peace prevails in the financial markets as central banks sit on their throne, fingers at the ready on the liquidity switch. As UBS’ Bhanu Baweja notes, most volatility buyers have been ‘rolled’ into their graves. As they have explicitly targeted risk premia [...]

Russell Rout Continues – Loses Post-Fed “All-Clear” Gains / by Tyler Durden on 07/08/2014 16:03

A middle of the day co-ordinated VWAP ramp (thanks to VIX) lifted stocks briefly – aftewr the Russell neared unchanged for 2014 – but the last 2 days – the worst in 3 months – pushed small caps into negative territory post-Yellen’s June Fed “all-clear”. All [...]

Someone Forget To Tell The VIX-Slamming Machines That The Market Is Shut / by Tyler Durden on 07/04/2014 15:24

As American investors sit back in their chairs, watching parades, sipping Budweiser elegantly, and generally having a good day off… there are some ‘people’ that are working hard to ensure the status quo is sustained. In order to maintain the illusion of exuberance and lack of [...]

Russell 2000 Gloom, Camera-on-a-Stick Doom, Bond Yields Boom / by Tyler Durden on 07/02/2014 16:02

For the 5th month in a row, US treasury bonds started with a 2-day sell-off as yields rose arond 6bps today (back to unch from FOMC). Gold, silver, and copper all gained notably (despite a knee-jerk lower on the ADP data). The US Dollar jumped instantly [...]

Risk eVIXeration Sends Stocks To New Record-er Highs / by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2014 16:04

The USD is unchanged; Commodities are unchanged; and Treasury yields are up only 2-3bps… but that didn;t stop July 1st from being a banner day for US equity markets (on the back of missed PMI and ISM data). The Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P closed at [...]

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Dogs, Not Barking / July 1, 2014

I found it interesting that on a day when the Dow Industrials (index for the financial tourists) and its little brother, the SP 500, were pushing to new highs, with VIX falling, that gold and silver held their rally from yesterday.

More silver contracts were stopped, bringing the new [...]

VIX-Manipulating HFT Algo Is Booted From Dark Pool, Exposed For Whole World To See / by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2014 16:31

VIX was monkey-hammered lower once again today, lifting stocks vertically to Russell 2000 record highs and The Dow within a point of 17,000. The question is who (or what) is doing it. Nanex appears to have found out who…It appears the un-visible hand of VIX manipulation [...]

Shorts Squeezed Most In 11 Months As Russell Surges But Outperformed By Gold In H1 / by Tyler Durden on 06/30/2014 16:01

Gold is the best performing asset in H1 2014 (just beating crude oil). The USA is the worst-performing macro-economy in the world’s majors in H1. The S&P 500 is up now 6 quarters in a row – its best run since 1998. The Russell 2000 had [...]

Financial Stress Index At All-Time Low / June 27, 2014

The markets were able to hold on to the positive trend these last few weeks, which affected the VIX amongst other things. The VIX dropped back, which is an indication of the fact that there is no panic among investors.

The Fed Financial Stress Index is [...]

Stocks End Unchanged As World Cup Loss Trumps Bullard Hawkishness & Dismal Data / by Tyler Durden on 06/26/2014 16:01

The typically more dovish Jim Bullard unleashed a torrent of “markets are wrong” this morning and along with dismal macro data sent stock reeling out of the gate – catching down to Treasury yields divergence since the Fed last week. Stocks stabilized as the hevay volume [...]

“No Brainer” – Stocks Surge Most In A Week On Worst Economic Data In 5 Years / by Tyler Durden on 06/25/2014 16:01

Just imagine how strong the rally would have been if US GDP had contracted by 5%? The early weakness in US equities was instantly dismissed the moment US stock markets opened for trading to the general algo public (and POMO began to be disseminated). The S&P [...]

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Pop n’ Flop / June 24, 2014

Stocks were rallying this morning on the ‘better than expected’ news about housing and consumer confidence.

As the day wore on, the punters apparently looked behind those numbers and did not like what they saw, and stocks ended up selling off on the day.

VIX has climbed back up [...]

Terrible Tuesday – Trannies Tumble To Red For June / by Tyler Durden on 06/24/2014 16:09

Something went horribly wrong. The Dow had almost its worst Tuesday in 8 months and Treasuries their best Tuesday of the year as once the data-sparked, POMO-driven short-squeeze had run its course stocks flatlined, tumbled at the 2Y auction, the dumped around 1500ET. VIX was no [...]

Precious Metals Have Best Week In 4 Months As VIX Plunges To Cycle Lows / by Tyler Durden on 06/20/2014 16:04

Fear – or no fear. VIX was monkey-hammered to fresh cycle lows at 10.34 today (still double-digits for now) and OPEX lifted US equity markets (Dow Industrials, Transports, and S&P) to new record highs. Notably European peripheral bond spreads jumped higher (worsened) by their most in [...]

S&P Closes At New Record High As Gold Spikes Most In 9 Months / by Tyler Durden on 06/19/2014 16:04

US equity markets were unable to maintain any of the kneejerk, VIX-smashing jerk higher post-FOMC momentum from yesterday and closed unch to slightly red (after some US open exuberance ran all-time-high stops once again). Equities did catch some bid late on as rumors of AAPL iWatch [...]

Single-Digit VIX Today? / by Tyler Durden / 06/19/2014 07:04 -0400

She came, she spoke, and she sent stocks to a new all time high. That is perhaps the simplest summary of what Janet Yellen did yesterday when, as a result of her droning monotone, she managed to put the VIX literally to sleep, [...]

Russell Rebounds On Late-Day Buying Panic But Rest Of Market Reluctant / by Tyler Durden on 06/16/2014 16:07

Treasuries oscillated in a 3-4bps range all day to end flatter with 30Y -1.5bps and 2Y +1.5bps as stocks flip-flopped around like Charlie Sheen in a Phat Phong whorehouse. Trannies resumed their post-Iraq drop (-0.3% today) but high-beta honeys sent Russell 2000 up 0.4% with the [...]

Dow Down Most In 3 Weeks As Market Double Dump-And-Pumps / by Tyler Durden on 06/11/2014 16:06

Overnight saw China spook its markets by weakening the CNY (and breaking the trend again) and suffering a failed bond auction and that led on to weakness across Europe as USDJPY toyed with 102 and dragged stocks and peripheral bonds down. The US opened weak, saw [...]

Late-Day Buying Scramble Keeps Tuesday Dream Alive For Stocks / by Tyler Durden on 06/10/2014 16:07

“Treasury-selling” Tuesday came and went and for the 2nd week in a row, bond yields rose (+2-3bps) following the 7th losing Monday in a row. Equity markets languished amid dismal volumes but were rangebound all day apart form AUDJPY and VIX-driven pumps to try and close [...]

Risk Analysis In The Golden Age Of The Central Banker / by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners Epsilon Theory blog / 06/09/2014 18:55

When I was a little kid we had a sand box. It was a quicksand box. I was an only child … eventually. – Steven Wright

A brief note today on what might be an arcane subject for some [...]

Biotech Bonanza Sends Russell 2000 Surging To Best Run In 17 Months / by Tyler Durden on 06/09/2014 16:02

After last night’s tumble in copper and surge in CNY during Asia, Europe steadied the ship with more plunging yields (especially the front-end) but the US was all about USDJPY ignition at the open to blast the S&P through 1,950 comfortably and decouple stocks once again [...]