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SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Jackson Holes, Hunger Games / 22 AUGUST 2014

Janet Yellen made her Fed debut at their Jackson Hole conference today.Her remarks moved the markets back and forth a bit, and in light volumes with littler other geopolitical and economic news the markets did a sideways consolidation.Well, there was some news. Various government figures have started warning about [...]

S&P Hits Record High Despite VIX Flash Smash / by Tyler Durden on 08/21/2014 16:02

Was it ever in doubt? Bad news is great news for China and Europe and good new is great news for US because no matter what Yellen will go full dovetard tomorrow – at least that appears to be the total consensus view as the [...]

The Market Reacts To The Fed’s Minutes / by Tyler Durden on 08/20/2014 14:49

The USD is soaring after somewhat hawkish Fed Minutes (up 1% this week) – pushing up towards critical resistance at 1-year highs. Treasury yields slammed 3-4bps higher and are holding those losses (30Y up 11bps this week). High yield credit is at the worst levels of [...]

Volume Collapse Sparks 5th Day In A Row Of Nasdaq Gains As Oil Plunges / by Tyler Durden on 08/19/2014 16:07

S&P futures traded the lowest volume of the year today (for a non-holiday trading day) and volume has slid consistently lower as this rally of the last 8 days. The S&P outperformed today (up over 0.5%) as yesterday’s oil-is-falling-so-buy-Trannies meme reversed into oil-is-falling-so-sell-Trannies which ended the [...]

Nasdaq Surges Back To March 2000 Highs / by Tyler Durden on 08/18/2014 16:03

The lack of World War 3 this weekend was the perfect catalyst for buying stocks back up towards record highs… because Putin must have folded, right? Oil prices slipped, with WTI briefly back under $96, which lifted Trannies 1.75% on the day (best performer) but [...]

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – The Fog of Currency War / 15 AUGUST 2014

Stocks tried to shake off the poor economic news this morning *again* as there are more signs that the recovery is sluggish to floundering.There was news during the day that the Ukraine had attacked and partially destroyed a Russian armoured convoy. This sent stocks plunging for a brief period [...]

Understanding VIX And Its Relationship To Gold / By Michael Mansour / August 12, 2014

Investors have been fleeing from riskier assets given the advances made during the Israeli ground invasion on the Gaza Strip, causing the VIX (the markets appetite for risk) to make a large jump. Let’s take a look into what VIX is at a base level.

The [...]

Dollar Dumps, Gold Jumps As Trannies Tumble Most In 6 Months / by Tyler Durden on 08/06/2014 16:04

Stocks dumped (EU weakness)-and-pumped today with the majors ending marginally higher (except the Trannies down 7 of last 9 days). The Dow Transports are down over 6% from record highs – the worst slide since Feb 2014. The Russell is down over 7.5% from its peak [...]

Post-European Close Buying-Panic Lifts Dow Green For 2014 / by Tyler Durden on 08/04/2014 16:06

Despite European weakness, US equity investors decided bailing out BES with taxpayer money means BTFD. As soon as Europe closed, VIX was monkey-hammered lower and stocks took off, first running today’s stops, then Friday’s highs, then pressing all major indices into the green for August. Notably, [...]

Stocks Rally Back To Green For August / by Tyler Durden on 08/04/2014 13:56

Stocks have given up JPY-carry momentum and fallen back to the old VIX-smashing algo (back under 16) to run stops above Friday’s highs. This morning’s dip has been bought (on notably low volume) and lifted the S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 back into the green for [...]

Bonds & Bullion Tumble As Stocks Stumble On Macro Weakness / by Tyler Durden on 07/24/2014 16:05

Treasury yields pushed 4-5bps higher on the day – the worst in 3 weeks – as yesterday’s test of 2014 lows saw some reactive bond-selling. Asian and EU PMIs sent stocks to record-er highs but absymal US PMI and housing data took the shine off the [...]

Is This The Best Investing Strategy For The New “Free Lunch” Normal? / by Tyler Durden on 07/20/2014 20:31

In a world in which there is no longer any risk, in which the Fed itself is the Chief Risk Officer of the S&P 500 itself (because either the Fed and central banks will keep on injecting “modest” liquidity and keep rates at [...]

Stocks Shrug At Global Disorder, Squeezed Back To Record Highs / by Tyler Durden on 07/18/2014 16:03

Just imagine how high stocks would be if more jets were shot down in Ukraine, more ground operations were unleashed in Gaza, more sanctions were placed on global growth, more European and US macro data disappointed, more job cuts at major firms, and more [...]

The Market’s Crystal Ball Is Giving Us A Warning Sign, Be Cautious On Stocks Over The Next Few Months, The Perfect Storm is Coming. / July 17, 2014

Want to know where stocks are headed next? Take a look at this…

From Jeff Clark, editor, S&A Short Report:

The market’s crystal ball is giving us a warning sign.

In 2009, I first wrote about using the price action in [...]

Gold Up Most In A Month, VIX Spikes Most In 6 Months Tyler Durden on 07/17/2014 12:12

Despite CNBC’s best afforts to play down this “may have been shot down” news of 295 dead on a Malaysian Airlines jet in Ukraine, markets are turmoiling. New lows for the day in stocks and bond yields have been accompnied by a surge in Gold (up over [...]

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Blue Skies, At Least Until September / July 16, 2014

eBay reported better than expected numbers after the bell. What a surprise.Stocks had an upward drift today, in a dull market trade. The VIX shows the markets are once again complacent. I would expect them to stay on a generally rosy trajectory until the Alibaba IPO can be spurted [...]

Strategist Warns SKEW “Is Flashing A Big Warning Signal For Stocks” / by Tyler Durden on 07/15/2014 15:39

As stocks have pushed to new record highs in recent weeks, and VIX has dropped accordingly, the cost of protecting desperate asset managers from a far bigger collapse in prices has been soaring. We first noted the record high price of SKEW – a [...]

The VIX Seasonal Summer Slumber Is Over: It’s All Uphill From Here / by Tyler Durden on 07/11/2014 13:55

When even the Fed is lamenting the VIX’s summer doldrums, having recently printing at all time lows on an unadjusted basis, one knows that Kevin Henry’s VIX selling skills will soon be obsolete. In fact he may even have to learn how to, gasp, buy VIX (with [...]

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Stutter Step / July 10, 2014

Stocks dumped today then came back in the afternoon. That is called a ‘stutter step’ in US football.This is why I do not like to short a dull market, except in quick advantageous hits, widely interspersed.We are in a symmetrical triangle on the NDX 100, and we will need [...]

What Has Driven The VIX Higher In The Past? / by Tyler Durden on 07/09/2014 15:25

A nervous peace prevails in the financial markets as central banks sit on their throne, fingers at the ready on the liquidity switch. As UBS’ Bhanu Baweja notes, most volatility buyers have been ‘rolled’ into their graves. As they have explicitly targeted risk premia [...]

Russell Rout Continues – Loses Post-Fed “All-Clear” Gains / by Tyler Durden on 07/08/2014 16:03

A middle of the day co-ordinated VWAP ramp (thanks to VIX) lifted stocks briefly – aftewr the Russell neared unchanged for 2014 – but the last 2 days – the worst in 3 months – pushed small caps into negative territory post-Yellen’s June Fed “all-clear”. All [...]

Someone Forget To Tell The VIX-Slamming Machines That The Market Is Shut / by Tyler Durden on 07/04/2014 15:24

As American investors sit back in their chairs, watching parades, sipping Budweiser elegantly, and generally having a good day off… there are some ‘people’ that are working hard to ensure the status quo is sustained. In order to maintain the illusion of exuberance and lack of [...]

Russell 2000 Gloom, Camera-on-a-Stick Doom, Bond Yields Boom / by Tyler Durden on 07/02/2014 16:02

For the 5th month in a row, US treasury bonds started with a 2-day sell-off as yields rose arond 6bps today (back to unch from FOMC). Gold, silver, and copper all gained notably (despite a knee-jerk lower on the ADP data). The US Dollar jumped instantly [...]

Risk eVIXeration Sends Stocks To New Record-er Highs / by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2014 16:04

The USD is unchanged; Commodities are unchanged; and Treasury yields are up only 2-3bps… but that didn;t stop July 1st from being a banner day for US equity markets (on the back of missed PMI and ISM data). The Dow, Russell 2000, and S&P closed at [...]

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Dogs, Not Barking / July 1, 2014

I found it interesting that on a day when the Dow Industrials (index for the financial tourists) and its little brother, the SP 500, were pushing to new highs, with VIX falling, that gold and silver held their rally from yesterday.

More silver contracts were stopped, bringing the new [...]

VIX-Manipulating HFT Algo Is Booted From Dark Pool, Exposed For Whole World To See / by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2014 16:31

VIX was monkey-hammered lower once again today, lifting stocks vertically to Russell 2000 record highs and The Dow within a point of 17,000. The question is who (or what) is doing it. Nanex appears to have found out who…It appears the un-visible hand of VIX manipulation [...]

Shorts Squeezed Most In 11 Months As Russell Surges But Outperformed By Gold In H1 / by Tyler Durden on 06/30/2014 16:01

Gold is the best performing asset in H1 2014 (just beating crude oil). The USA is the worst-performing macro-economy in the world’s majors in H1. The S&P 500 is up now 6 quarters in a row – its best run since 1998. The Russell 2000 had [...]

Financial Stress Index At All-Time Low / June 27, 2014

The markets were able to hold on to the positive trend these last few weeks, which affected the VIX amongst other things. The VIX dropped back, which is an indication of the fact that there is no panic among investors.

The Fed Financial Stress Index is [...]

Stocks End Unchanged As World Cup Loss Trumps Bullard Hawkishness & Dismal Data / by Tyler Durden on 06/26/2014 16:01

The typically more dovish Jim Bullard unleashed a torrent of “markets are wrong” this morning and along with dismal macro data sent stock reeling out of the gate – catching down to Treasury yields divergence since the Fed last week. Stocks stabilized as the hevay volume [...]

“No Brainer” – Stocks Surge Most In A Week On Worst Economic Data In 5 Years / by Tyler Durden on 06/25/2014 16:01

Just imagine how strong the rally would have been if US GDP had contracted by 5%? The early weakness in US equities was instantly dismissed the moment US stock markets opened for trading to the general algo public (and POMO began to be disseminated). The S&P [...]