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The BLS and the Fed Are Playing Chicken

caseyresearch.com / by Dennis Miller / March 25, 2015

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that February 2015 employment had increased by 295,000 jobs and unemployment had dropped down to 5.5%, predictable hoopla and cheering from the political class followed.

Then the Dow dropped, with some fearing the Fed might actually start […]

Why The Fed May Raise Rates Soon (What Big Sister Is Watching!)

wallstreetexaminer.com / Courtesy of Confounded Interest, by Anthony B. Sanders • March 25, 2015

There was an excellent Bloomberg article entitled “Yellen Is Watching These Four Indicators for Signals on When to Raise Rates.”

Forget the Federal Open Market Committee’s pledge to be “patient” in raising rates from near zero. Forget “considerable time” and […]

Chicago Fed National Index Negative Again – Stocks Headed For Downside Shock

investmentresearchdynamics.com / By Dave Kranzler / March 23, 2015

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged lower to –0.11 in February from –0.10 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from January, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index […]

10 Charts Which Show We Are Much Worse Off Than Just Before The Last Economic Crisis

theeconomiccollapseblog.com / By Michael Snyder on March 18th, 2015

If you believe that ignorance is bliss, you might not want to read this article. I am going to dispel the notion that there has been any sort of “economic recovery”, and I am going to show that we are much worse off than we were […]

Something Strange Is Going On With Nonfarm Payrolls

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 03/17/2015 13:30

Let’s start with the basics: why is there a majority consensus that the Fed will hike rates after it removes its “patient” language tomorrow? One simple reason: non-farm payrolls. As reported earlier in the month, following the report of March’s expectations smashing 295,000 jobs added, there […]

Wage Growth vs. Economic Theory

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / Monday, March 16, 2015 2:25 AM

If economists were right, wage growth and inflation would be soaring. After all, the Phillips Curve states that decreased unemployment in an economy will correlate with higher rates of inflation [and higher wage growth].

Let’s explore that thesis.

Average Hourly Earnings Percent Change […]

Government & Economy Are American’s Biggest Problems

schiffgold.com / BY MIKE FINGER / March 13, 2015

For the fourth month in a row, Gallup found that Americans named the government as the biggest problem in the United States. Jobs and the economy tied for the second-most worrisome problems. Together, these three issues are the top concerns for almost 40% of Americans.

[…]

Here’s Why Jobless Claims Don’t Pin the Tail On This Donkey Yet

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Lee Adler / March 12, 2015

Initial jobless claims are back at it. They have reached an all time record low level for this time in March. This string of record lows has now persisted since September 2013 with the exception of a few weeks here and there. Employers continue to […]

Caught Out! The Fed’s Dangerous Little White Lies

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Lance Gaitan / March 11, 2015

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Economy and Markets. To view original, click here.

Speaking of things the Fed or government have absolutely nothing to do with, do you really believe either of them have much control over jobs growth, unemployment or even wages? Sorry, […]

Never Smile at a Crocodile

mauldineconomics.com / BY JOHN MAULDIN / MARCH 10, 2015

“High debt levels, whether in the public or private sector, have historically placed a drag on growth and raised the risk of financial crises that spark deep economic recessions.”

– The McKinsey Institute, “Debt and (not much) deleveraging”

Never smile at a crocodile No, you can’t […]

The Fed Blew It

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / TUESDAY, MARCH 10, 2015

The Fed had multiple opportunities to let the air out of unsustainable asset bubbles by notching interest rates higher and tapering its asset purchases (QE).

The Federal Reserve blew it by not normalizing interest rates a long time ago. The consensus in financial circles […]

Employment, the Economy & Interest Rates

news.goldseek.com / By Gary Tanashian / 10 March 2015

The February Employment report was a strong +295,000 with unemployment dropping to 5.5%. In Friday’s Market Notes update we highlighted that per BLS this was a services-driven report as the leading edge of the economy, the smaller but key manufacturing and industrial sectors, have begun […]

Why Is Per Capita Energy Consumption at Recession Levels After Six Years of Recovery?

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / MONDAY, MARCH 09, 2015

Per capita energy consumption remains at recession levels.

One way to verify rosy official data–GDP growth, low unemployment, etc.–is to compare it with data that is less easily gamed: for example, energy consumption.Those seeking a realistic snapshot of the Chinese economy routinely turn to energy […]

Gold SWOT: Ecuador Hopes to Attract Foreign Miners to Develop Gold and Copper Riches

news.goldseek.com / By Frank Holmes / 9 March 2015

Strengths

Gold traders are bullish for a second week on the outlook for increased demand from Asia. The Shanghai Gold Exchange saw withdrawals of 412 metric tons as of February 27. Annualizing that would mean 2,472 metric tons for 2015, an increase of close to […]

Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie

theeconomiccollapseblog.com / By Michael Snyder / March 8th, 2015

On Friday, we learned that the official “unemployment rate” has fallen to 5.5 percent. Since an unemployment rate of 5 percent is considered to be “full employment” by many economists, many in the mainstream media took this as a sign that the U.S. economy has almost […]

Start Of European QE Upstaged By Greek Jitters; Apple Unveils iWatch

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 03/09/2015 06:59 -0400

Because as everyone knows, the one main problem facing Europe today is not trillions on non-performing loans, rampant unemployment, deflation, the surge of anti-austerity political parties coupled with rising xenophobia, and broad socio-economic instability, but bond yields which are not negative enough, earlier today first Germany, […]

An Inflection Point For Keynesian Parlor Tricks

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 03/08/2015 16:55

Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

Suddenly everywhere you look, one after another, a story is making its way into the main stream press (albeit a trickle but that’s a tidal wave in comparison) that we may be, in fact; experiencing a “bubble” in stock prices. All I can […]

Trends in Employment: What Age Groups Get the Jobs?

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 06, 2015

One interesting fact in today’s jobs report (see Diving Into the Payroll Report: Establishment +295K Jobs; Household +96K Employment, Labor Force -178K) was a drop in teenage unemployment of 1.7 percentage points while overall the unemployment rate fell by only 0.2 percentage points.

The only […]

Goldman Payroll Post-Mortem: Fed Will Modify Forward Guidance, Possible June Rate Hike

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 03/06/2015 09:32

Via Goldman Sachs,

Payroll employment continued to grow at a strong pace, exceeding consensus expectations. The unemployment rate fell due to lower participation. With the final employment report in hand before the upcoming FOMC meeting, we think the Committee will modify its forward guidance on March 18. […]

Americans Not In The Labor Force Rise To Record 98.9 Million As Participation Rate Declines Again

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 03/06/2015 08:53 -0500

For those (very few now, with even the Fed admitting the unemployment rate has become a meaningless, anachronistic relic) still wondering why the unemployment rate dropped once again, sliding from 5.7% to 5.5%, the reason is that while the number of unemployed Americans dropped by 274K […]