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Brazil: Victim of Vulgar Keynesianism

mises.org / Antony P. Mueller / MARCH 27, 2015

All Keynesian roads lead to stagflation. That was the case in Europe and in the United States in the 1970s when both stagnation and inflation hit the economies at the same time. Currently, this is the case in Brazil.

Since coming into power in 2003, […]

Damn the Reports, Full Speed Ahead; Recession Overdue; Good Time to Normalize Rates?

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 26, 2015

Here’s one for the I’ll believe it when I see it category: Fed Officials say Rate Hike Plan Intact Despite Weak U.S. Data.

In separate events in Frankfurt and Detroit, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said U.S. monetary policy […]

Jobs and Employment: How Much Recession Warning Can One Expect?

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / by Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 26, 2015

Watching the Wrong Things

Many market watchers have their eye on jobs and the unemployment rate as the determinant of when the Fed will hike.

Let’s investigate the wisdom of that approach with actual data.

I downloaded seasonally adjusted employment and jobs data for the […]

The Price Of Ground Beef Has DOUBLED Since The Last Financial Crisis

theeconomiccollapseblog.com / By Michael Snyder on March 25th, 2015

Since the depths of the last recession, the price of ground beef in the United States has doubled. Has your paycheck doubled since then? Even though the Federal Reserve insists that we are in a “low inflation” environment, the government’s own numbers show that the price […]

The Tried-and-True Blueprint for Raising Taxes

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / TUESDAY, MARCH 24, 2015

As the global economy slides into recession and the U.S. economy catches a cold, the blueprint for raising taxes will be dusted off in every state.

The blueprint for raising taxes in the modern era was first established in 1913 when the federal government instituted […]

Philly Fed Signals Worst Margin Compression Since Lehman

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 03/19/2015 12:10

With markets pricing in nothing but a “permanent plateau of margins,” it appears the Philly Fed is about to ruin that meme too… Thanks to the collapse of the Prices Received (and Prices Paid) indices, margins are now implicitly the lowest since Lehman. The last 2 times […]

We’re Very Disappointed In You!

dollarcollapse.com / by John Rubino / March 17, 2015

Another day, another “unexpectedly” bad economic report. Lately it seems like a lot of what US government statisticians say comes as an unpleasant surprise for economists. The latter think a recovery is building momentum, while the former are painting a picture of incipient recession. The […]

Risky Business Update—-Market Internals Are Flashing

davidstockmanscontracorner.com / by Sigmund Holmes • March 17, 2015

As I’ve said here a few times, there are really only two methods of investing that work – value and momentum. I’d even venture to say that the two are linked in that value informs one about risk while momentum informs one about the willingness […]

What Happens to the Stock Market if the U.S. Follows the World into Recession?

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / THURSDAY, MARCH 12, 2015

History is rather unkind to blind faith in central banks, just as the rising U.S. dollar and stagnant sales are being very unkind to corporate profits.

The quasi-religious faith that central banks can push stock markets ever higher regardless of real-world realities may well be […]

The Last Time Gas Prices Rose This Fast, The US Entered Recession

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2015 19:00

From February through May, gas prices have historically tended to rise. However, between refinery strikes and shutdowns (and blend transitions), 2015 has seen gas prices rise from the start of February at the fastest pace on record. Despite the total lack of ‘surge in consumer spending’ […]

The Great Immoderation: How The Fed Is Sowing The Next Recession

davidstockmanscontracorner.com / by David Stockman • March 11, 2015

In February 2004 Ben Bernanke famously declared the business cycle had been tamed and took a bow in behalf of enlightened monetary management, claiming it was the principal source of this beneficent development. Exactly 55 months later, of course, he terrorized the Congressional leadership and a […]

Recession Alarm! Wholesaler Sales Declined By Most Since Early 2009

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Anthony B. Sanders, Courtesy of Confounded Interest / March 10, 2015

Alarm! The Merchant Wholesalers Sales Total Monthly % Change was released this morning … and it was the worst drop since early 2009.

The reaction in the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Down 245 (or 1.37 percent).

READ MORE

[…]

Wholesale Trade: Sales Down, Inventories Up; GDP Estimate Revised Lower Again; Sticking With Recession Call

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 10, 2015

The US Commerce Department Monthly Wholesales Report for January 2015 shows sales are down while inventories continue to rise.

Wholesale Trade Sales

Sales down 3.1% from the revised December level Sales for December revised lower by 0.5% Sales down 1.0% from January 2014 Sales […]

Wholesale Trade: Sales Down, Inventories Up; GDP Estimate Revised Lower Again; Sticking With Recession Call

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / by Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 10, 2015

The US Commerce Department Monthly Wholesales Report for January 2015 shows sales are down while inventories continue to rise.

Wholesale Trade Sales

Sales down 3.1% from the revised December level Sales for December revised lower by 0.5% Sales down 1.0% from January 2014 […]

Recession Alarm: Wholesale Sales Plunge, Worst Since Lehman

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 03/10/2015 10:13

For the first time since Lehman, Wholesale Trade Sales dropped for a 3rd month in a row in January. Plunging 3.1% MoM (against -0.5% expectations), this is the biggest drop since March 2009. Excluding auto sales, wholesale sales fell 3.5%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% (beating expectations) […]

Why Is Per Capita Energy Consumption at Recession Levels After Six Years of Recovery?

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / MONDAY, MARCH 09, 2015

Per capita energy consumption remains at recession levels.

One way to verify rosy official data–GDP growth, low unemployment, etc.–is to compare it with data that is less easily gamed: for example, energy consumption.Those seeking a realistic snapshot of the Chinese economy routinely turn to energy […]

The US is Lurching Towards Default

news.goldseek.com / By Graham Summers / 9 March 2015

The US is once again at its Debt Limit.

Despite all of the talk of cutting the deficit and the like, the political class continues to throw taxpayer money around at a pace that is bankrupting the nation.

To whit: the US is set to […]

Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie

theeconomiccollapseblog.com / By Michael Snyder / March 8th, 2015

On Friday, we learned that the official “unemployment rate” has fallen to 5.5 percent. Since an unemployment rate of 5 percent is considered to be “full employment” by many economists, many in the mainstream media took this as a sign that the U.S. economy has almost […]

An update on Brazil’s flagging economy

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Sober Look • March 4, 2015

Brazil’s economic uncertainty continues to worsen. While growth projections for all the BRICS have been lowered, for the first time in years Brazil’s economy is now expected to contract in 2015.

We can see the impending recession reflected in the nation’s inverted government bond yield […]

Factory Orders Unexpectedly Decline 6th Month; Five Excuses; Orders vs. Shipments

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 05, 2015

Extending the longest streak since the 2008-2009 recession, Factory Orders Unexpectedly Decline 6th Month.

New orders for U.S. factory goods unexpectedly fell in January, posting their sixth straight monthly decline, a sign of weakness in the manufacturing sector.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday new […]