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Great Graphic: US Household Debt and Composition / by Marc Chandler / August 14, 2014

This Great Graphic comes from New York Federal Reserve via a tweet from NickatFP. On a quarterly basis, going back to the start of 2003, to shows the dollar level as well as the composition of US household debt. The most striking observation is how [...]

The Housing Recovery Continues Apace – Mortgage Apps At 14-Year Low / by Tyler Durden / 08/13/2014 10:00

How much longer can the myth of a housing recovery remain alive in the mainstream media’s narrative? The smoothed average of Mortgage Applications in the US fell to its lowest since September 2000 this week. Mortgage applications have slumped for 9 months… as mortgage rates have [...]

The Reality of Why Higher Education is So Expensive / By Michael Becker, Joe For America / August 7th, 2014

You hear it all the time. There’s a crisis in higher education. It’s too expensive. Kids are graduating so deep in debt with college loans that they can’t qualify for a mortgage. Heck, they can’t find a job so they can move out [...]

Why Wait for the Shoe to Hit the Floor? The Case for Selling Now / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / THURSDAY, JULY 31, 2014

Waiting to sell is akin to ignoring the smoke and flames in the crowded theater and hesitating until somebody yells “fire!” to rush for the now-jammed exit.

The stock market is supposed to be a discounting mechanism that anticipates and prices in [...]

Inflation where it matters: Close to 50 percent of Americans indicate spending more on groceries and fuel this summer. Nearly one third indicate more spending on rent and mortgage payments. / mybudget360 / July 19, 2014

The stock market continues to move upwards ambivalent to economic indicators and the reality that inflation is permeating throughout our economy. The Fed continues to point at CPI as evidence that inflation remains subdued and this gives them the motivation to move forward with monetary policies [...]

JPM Earnings Slide 8% On Drop In Trading Volume, Mortgage Production Offset By $1.5 Billion Stock Buyback / by Tyler Durden / 07/15/2014 07:40 -0400

While JPM stock is trading modestly higher in the pre-market following its earnings report which beat expectations on the top and the bottom line, it doesn’t hide a troubling trend seen across all the banks that have reported so far, one we forecast would [...]

Citi Masks Crashing Mortgage, Trading Revenues With $3.8 Billion Settlement Charge / by Tyler Durden / 07/14/2014 09:03 -0400

Earlier today, moments after hearing that Citi would incur a near-record $3.8 billion Q2 charge as part of a $7 billion settlement for the US investigation into its fraudulent MBS sales in the pre-Lehman period, an announcement which came literally minutes before its Q2 earnings announcement, [...]

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Pivotal Week Ahead – Mortgage Slump / 11 JULY 2014

As you can see on the charts we have symmetrical triangles on the big stock charts.

It looks like next week will be a pivotal week for US equities.

There will be more in the way of economics news and earnings, and I believe that Janet Yellen will be [...]

Mortgage Bankers: ‘Unsustainable Housing Bubble Is Inflating’ / by Wolf Richter / July 10, 2014

Observations about a housing bubble being once again inflated in many areas in the US have transitioned from bloggers throwing around unpleasant party-pooper data to mortgage bankers.

In a survey conducted by the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association for FICO – the same company after which [...]

“Unsustainable Real Estate Bubble Is Inflating,” Mortgage Bankers tell FICO / by Wolf Richter / July 10, 2014

Observations about a housing bubble being once again inflated in many areas in the US have transitioned from bloggers throwing around unpleasant party-pooper data to mortgage bankers.

In a survey conducted by the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association for FICO – [...]

Why Housing Will Crash Again–But For Different Reasons Than Last Time / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / TUESDAY, JULY 08, 2014

Institutionalizing the speculative excesses that inflated the previous housing bubble has fed magical thinking and fostered illusions of phantom wealth and security. The global housing market has been dominated by magical thinking for the past 15 years. The magical thinking can be boiled down to [...]

Extreme Disinformation On New Home Sales – Gold/Silver Hang Tough / By David Kranzler /June 30, 2014

As I highlighted last week, the Census Bureau/Government monthly report on new home sales was, without a doubt, a statistically manipulated fraud: New HomeSales Fraud. Individual companies are now committing the same crime as the Government. KB Homes reported their 2nd quarter results on [...]

Mortgage Applications Re-Plunge As Rates Tick Up 5bps / by Tyler Durden on 06/18/2014 19:03

While the Fed’s magical money transmission mechanism in mortgages (and thus housing ‘wealth’) broke in the middle of last year, this last week’s move is a perfect summary of the sensitivity of whatever is left of the recovery. Mortgage rates rose a mere 5bps but this [...]

Who needs a mortgage? Cash sales continue to dominate market while mortgage applications run near levels last seen in 2000. Housing starts remain weak and expectations for price increases run wild. / By Dr. Housing Bubble / 17 Jun, 2014

Apparently very few people need mortgages to purchase homes in the market today. One out of every three homes sold (at least those on the MLS) are going to those “all cash” buyers. Investors continue to dominate the percentage of all sales [...]

Industry with highest level of depression treatment? Real estate and intercity passenger transit. SoCal home sales continue to lag as spring and summer season fail to take off. / Dr. Housing Bubble / 12 Jun, 2014

The recent sales figures continue to show a slow start to the spring and summer SoCal selling season. While sellers in many areas are now asking for peak prices, the number of debt slaves buyers continues to shrink as many homes languish on [...]

The South Rises Up to Take on Wall Street and High Frequency Trading / By Pam Martens / June 10, 2014

Eric Hunsader

Southern states are mad as hell and aren’t going to take it any more. After more than five years of watching their cities and towns suffer foreclosure and mortgage abuse from the biggest firms on Wall Street, rigged Libor swaps impoverishing [...]

The showdown in housing: Inventory increasing in California as sellers drink the Kool-Aid of housing mania 2.0. $769,000 and you get one bathroom. Low volume and cooler heads starting to rationalize the biggest purchase of their lives. / Dr. Housing Bubble / 9 Jun, 2014

Welcome to the summer SoCal housing season! This is typically the house horniest time of the yearand real estate agents are getting ready for all the open houses they will be hosting for future big eyed buyers. Last year, housing lust was reaching fever [...]

Half of Americans can’t afford their house / By Quentin Fottrell / June 4, 2014, 3:58 p.m. EDT

As the housing market slowly recovers, a majority of homeowners and renters are finding it hard to meet rising rents and mortgage payments, new research finds.

Over half of Americans (52%) have had to make at least one [...]

Real Economy Bites Housing Bubble 2 / by Wolf Richter / JUNE 4, 2014 AT 1:21AM

When the home-sales curve kinked south last fall, soothsayers had some handy reasons: The fiscal cliff, the threat of a government shutdown, and the potential government default that no one took seriously made home buyers uncertain. The jump in mortgage rates in [...]

Is student debt hindering young people from buying homes or is it low incomes? Both mortgage and rental payments consuming a larger portion of income. / Dr. Housing Bubble / 27 May, 2014

Young people are having a very difficult go at enjoying the spoils of the recent housing market. In places like California, 2.3 million adults are living at home with their parents, many unable to scrounge up enough for a rental let alone the ability [...]

What does $600,000 buy you in Southern California real estate? A look at Pasadena, Arcadia, and Torrance. Some boomers cashing in their housing lottery ticket. / By Dr. Housing Bubble / May 23, 2014

We have an astute audience that reaches beyond the confines of the 405 and 10 freeways. I know it is hard for some readers to see beyond PCH but it is true, the U.S. is an expansive and far reaching country. It is [...]

The Housing Market Is D O A / By David Kranzler / May 21, 2014

Mortgage purchase applications were down again week to week for the week ending May 16: Purchase applications drop 3%

They were down 12% year over year.

Purchase apps have been negative week to week for 3 of the last 4 weeks.

Lest we forget, which is [...]

Italian Bad Loans Surge 26% YoY To Record High (59th Month In A Row) / by Tyler Durden / 05/20/2014 09:32

Welcome to the recovery. For the 59th month in a row, the stock of bad loans across Italian banks rose (up ~26% YoY). At EUR 164 billion, this is a new record high and remains the biggest problem for Italian banks (non-performing loans now make up a [...]

At least 6 Chinese cities had to bail out their real estate markets last month / by Simon Black on May 15, 2014

According to the Chinese financial publication Securities Daily, emergency real estate rescue packages have been launched in large cities such as Wuxi, Nanning, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Tongling and Zhengzhou in the last month alone.

“Zhengzhou created a mortgage guarantee policy to win back banks’ confidence” according [...]

Treasury Yields Decline in Spite of Price Inflation; Mortgage Rates vs. Treasuries / By Mike “Mish” Shedlock / May 15, 2014

Curve Watcher’s Anonymous has its eye on the US treasury yield curve today.

Chart Symbols

$TYX: 30-Year $TNX: 10-Year $FVX: 05-Year $IRX: 03-Month


Homebuilder Confidence Plunges To 12-Month Lows / by Tyler Durden / 05/15/2014 10:11 -0400

For the 5th month in a row, homebuilder hope has missed expectations. At 45 (vs 49 expectations), this is the lowest the NAHB survey has been at since May 2013, catching down to the reality of home sales and mortgage applications. On the bright side, realtors [...]

“Muddle Through”, Mortgage-Backeds, And “Markets Are Dangerous” – SALT Day 1 Post Mortem / by Tyler Durden / 05/15/2014 11:09 -0400

While the headlines are being made by David Tepper’s “markets are dangerous” comments, there was plenty more bearish, bullish, and everything in between as the Skybridge Alternatives (SALT) Conference on day 1.

Via Bloomberg:

Appaloosa’s David Tepper:

Tepper nervous about [...]

Welcome to the Third World, Part 13: Suburbs Become Ghettos / by John Rubino on May 12, 2014

Not so long ago, a reasonably-presentable American could live an hour outside of a city and commute in for a government or banking job, thus getting the best of both worlds: city-level wages and a 3,000 square foot house with a big yard for [...]

Student Loans Soar To Record $1.111 Trillion, Up 12% In Past Year / by Tyler Durden / 05/13/2014 13:09 -0400

When the Fed releases its quarterly household credit report, the one item most focused on is the amount of mortgages outstanding and originated in the prior quarter, since courtesy of its monthly consumer credit updates we know that US households have largely given up [...]

Thank You, Dr. Yellen—For That $1 Million Jumbo Mortgage At 100% Financing / by David Stockman • May 9, 2014

The Fed was forced to note in its last meeting release that the housing market has hits some head winds. Well it might have. March new home sales were down by 13% and existing home sales by 8%. But an even more troublesome [...]