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19/7/2014: Irish Roads: Worse than Chile, better than Namibia?

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, July 19, 2014

So… after two decades of extensive road building on foot of EU and domestic money, Ireland’s road system (based in a country with mild climate, no extreme temperatures variations and no seismic activities) is ranked right below that of Chile (seismically-active, extremely mountainous and extreme [...]

13/6/2014: January-April Trade in Goods: Ireland

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Friday, June 13, 2014

Some quick stats on trade in goods data out today:First up: aggregates:

Core points:

Aggregate exports are down once again in 2014: off 1.8% for the period January-April Much of this is down to pharma and organic chemicals, but declines overall were registered in [...]

7/6/2014: Ireland’s Questioned Tax Regime & Taoiseach’s Magnets

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, June 7, 2014

Two articles this week highlight the on-going saga of Irish corporation tax regime:1) One covering California’s Governor comments made to our Taoiseach: http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/california-would-be-an-independent-state-if-it-had-irelands-tax-regime-30336242.html2) And another covering the EU probe being launched:http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-06-05/eu-said-to-decide-next-week-on-probe-of-irish-dutch-tax-breaks

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30/5/2014: Detailed Analysis of Retail Sales for Ireland: April 2014

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Friday, May 30, 2014

In the previous post on Retail Sales data, I covered Q2 comparatives across the years (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/05/3052014-that-state-sanctioned-inflation.html). As promised, here is April data taken on a monthly frequency.There are several very interesting developments in terms of core retail sales data released earlier this week by CSO. [...]

22/5/2014: Labor Mobility within Currency Unions & some Implications for Ireland

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Friday, May 23, 2014

A very interesting theoretical paper “Labor Mobility within Currency Unions ” by Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning, April 2014 (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2436714) looks at “the effects of labor mobility within a currency union suffering from nominal rigidities.”The departing point for the paper is Mundell (1961) famous dictum [...]

18/5/2014: Global Gambling: Ireland of Saints & Scholars

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Sunday, May 18, 2014

A chart summarising some interesting stats on global gambling addiction…

Ireland in a ‘proud’ seventh position… and just like our ‘aspirational’ brethren in Finland, heavily into online gambling – a form of a-social entertainment that is pure addiction…

trueeconomics

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Ireland’s Fabled External Balance Performance: 1990-2013

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Sunday, May 4, 2014

Ireland’s external balance performance has always been a major point for departure in analysis of our economic growth, sustainability of our debt and overall consideration of our economic infrastructure quality. As a Small Open economy, Ireland is trade-intensive. As an MNCs-led economy, Ireland is [...]

Wholesale Prices in Ireland: March 2014

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Friday, April 25, 2014, 2:27 PM

Deflation at consumer prices level is a two-edged sword. Whilst it normally rises savings and delays consumption, it also helps households stuck in debt to deleverage faster and it beefs up surplus savings available for investment.But deflation at producer prices level is [...]

19/4/2014: If Only Forecasts Were Falling Ripe from Trees…

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, April 19, 2014

Here we go, folks… ESRI’s latest thoughts on Irish economy… and they are earth-shattering.Let’s take a few pointers from the wise:1) “Ireland could face a debilitating period of stagnation – characterised by high unemployment, falling prices and low growth – if recovery in Europe falters”.“Could”?! [...]

Europe’s latest policy on Irish and Greek banking losses: A tale of two swindles too similar for comfort

yanisvaroufakis.eu / By yanisv / April 1, 2014

The Irish and the Greeks are, in many ways, very different people. And yet, caught up in the Euro Crisis, our fortunes have become too close for comfort. Recently, European authorities have devised a creative new method for damaging the people of Ireland and of Greece [...]

8/2/2014: Irish Mortgages Crisis: More of a crisis, less of a solution

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, February 8, 2014

This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column from January 19, 2014.

With Dublin property prices and rental rates on the rise optimism about bricks and mortar is gradually re-infecting our living rooms and feeding through to the government and [...]

Surviving Austerity

europac.net / By Andrew Schiff / January 27, 2014

This article is taken from the Winter 2014 EPC Global Investor Newsletter.

With the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index having posted a 30% gain, it’s easy to assume that U.S. stocks easily led the world in 2013. (There is more on what is behind this rally [...]

Daily Pfennig: China in a holding pattern

caseyresearch.com / By Chuck Butler / January 21, 2014 8:32am

In This Issue.

* Housing keeps rolling along * A quiet week for US data * Ireland raised to investment grade * Chinese growth in neutral

And, Now, Today’s Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

China in a holding pattern.

Good Day.and welcome to Tuesday morning. As [...]

Goods Exports: A Story of Irish Tax Arbitrage Mode of Growth?

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / January 17, 2014

I covered monthly and annual trends in Irish Trade in Goods statistics yesterday (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/01/1612014-trade-in-goods-november-2013.html), noting that

Irish exports of goods are continuing to shrink – not grow at a slower rate, but grow at a negative rate – over 2013 Irish trade surplus in goods [...]

Are Irish Family Benefits Really the Highest in the OECD?..

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / January 15, 2014

An interesting chart on public spending relating to families across the OECD states:

Ireland is a clear leader in terms of family supports. But the bulk of our lead comes from cash payments (second only to Lux). Which suggests that [...]

Manufacturing PMI for Ireland: December 2013

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / January 2, 2014

Manufacturing PMI is out for Ireland today, per Markit/Investec release: “The Irish manufacturing sector ended 2013 on a positive note as growth of output and new orders gained momentum in December. Meanwhile, the current sequence of job creation was extended [...]

Broader Unemployment & Underemployment in Ireland: Q3 2013

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / November 26, 2013

Per CSO data:

PLS1 (unemployed persons plus discouraged workers) unemployment rate stood at 13.8% down from 14.8% in Q2 2013 and 16% in Q3 2012. Compared to peak, PLS1 is now 2.4 percentage points lower. Q3 2013 rate stands at the [...]

Exiting the Bailout Alone: ‘Goods’, ‘Bads’ and Risks

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / November 15, 2013

So Ireland is exiting the bailout without a precautionary line of credit. The news is big. And the news is small.

Small on positives, albeit tangible:

Markets got more certainty that any pricing will be [...]

The Economy’s Screwed – To The Pub! (Part II)

dailyreckoning.com.au / By Bill Bonner / November 13th, 2013

Not much action in the markets. So let’s go back to our story…

At the Kilkenomics economics festival in Kilkenny, Ireland…

We had just taken the first hit. It was an informal debate, in front of a crowd of drunken Irishmen. And our opponent was [...]

Services and Manufacturing PMIs for Ireland: October 2013

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / November 11, 2013

With some delay, let’s update the data on Irish PMIs.

Before we do, quick explanation for a delay – I used to be on the mailing list for Investec releases to PMIs for years (way before the organisation became a part of [...]

A Great Tech Future for Ireland… or a Bubble? Sunday Times, November 10

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / November 11, 2013

This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column from November 10, 2013.

Depending on which measure one uses Ireland slipped into the Great Recession as far back as in the mid-2007. Since then and through the first half of this [...]