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14/12/2014: Irish Building & Construction Q3 2014: Another Quarter of Unconvincing Recovery

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / December 14, 2014

Indices for activity (volume and value) in Building & Construction sector in Ireland were published this week covering Q3 2014. Here are the details:

Across all Building & Construction sector:

Value index for all Building & Construction sector rose to 108.6 in Q3 2014 – […]

1/11/2014: IAE Raises Concerns with Irish Energy Policy Framework

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / November 1, 2014

Here is an interesting study published by the Irish Academy of Engineering in response to the Government Green Paper on energy:http://www.iae.ie/publications/publication/iae-response-to-green-paper-on-energy/.

To put matters into context IAE notes elsewhere that:

Since 2007 energy prices in Ireland have risen by 29% in real terms compared […]

19/10/2014: Dublin: Just 24th in the Global Centres for Talent Rankings

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by RICHARD FLORIDA via citylab.com / October 19, 2014

You know the mythology: despite 55% upper marginal tax rate in exchange for nearly zilch in public services, despite the need to pay consultants’ fees and private insurance just to get basic medical care, and despite the fact that childcare runs a cost of […]

18/10/2014: Irish Economy: The State of Recovery

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / October 18, 2014

Yesterday I had a chance to speak about the state of the Irish economy at a breakfast briefing hosted by Invesco. Here are my speaking notes (slightly edited).

Where Ireland is today?

There is a recovery The recovery is still fragile & highly uneven Risks […]

The Troika – Threatening Ireland Now As Well

armstrongeconomics.com / by Martin Armstrong / October 4, 2014

The term Troika, actually comes from the Russian meaning “group of three”. It was increasingly used during the Euroland crisis to describe the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank, who formed a group of international lenders that laid down stringent austerity measures […]

13/9/2014: Irish tax System: Less Balance, More Burden

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, September 13, 2014

Remember the booming tax receipts and corporate tax returns? So what is really booming in the Exchequer accounts in Ireland?

Chart above shows that:

As proportion of total tax receipts, Income Tax and Levies now account for 42.84% of all tax receipts (data for January-July […]

How The UK Would Look Like Without Scotland

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 09/11/2014 11:30

One quick look at the map of the UK shows the biggest impact a loss of Scotland would have on the Divided Kingdom (f/k/a UK) of England, Wales and Northern Ireland, should the “Yes” vote in the Scottish referendum garner a majority in one week:

8/9/2014: Some Pretty Good Services Data from Ireland

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / September 8, 2014

Irish services sectors have been at the forefront of the latest recovery for over two years now, posting booming figures and rosy PMIs. Underlying trends, however, are less often voiced. So let’s take a look at the latest data here:

Overall, by value indices, Irish […]

4/9/2014: The Bizarre World of World Economic Forum Rankings

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / September 4, 2014

Recent, the WEF released its new Global Competitiveness Indicators, showing some pretty bizarre changes in Ireland’s performance across a number of metrics. Here are the historical trends and the latest figures. Overall, 2014-2015 GCI rank for Ireland shows and improvement from 28th place in 2013-2014 […]

19/7/2014: Irish Roads: Worse than Chile, better than Namibia?

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, July 19, 2014

So… after two decades of extensive road building on foot of EU and domestic money, Ireland’s road system (based in a country with mild climate, no extreme temperatures variations and no seismic activities) is ranked right below that of Chile (seismically-active, extremely mountainous and extreme […]

13/6/2014: January-April Trade in Goods: Ireland

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Friday, June 13, 2014

Some quick stats on trade in goods data out today:First up: aggregates:

Core points:

Aggregate exports are down once again in 2014: off 1.8% for the period January-April Much of this is down to pharma and organic chemicals, but declines overall were registered in […]

7/6/2014: Ireland’s Questioned Tax Regime & Taoiseach’s Magnets

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, June 7, 2014

Two articles this week highlight the on-going saga of Irish corporation tax regime:1) One covering California’s Governor comments made to our Taoiseach: http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/california-would-be-an-independent-state-if-it-had-irelands-tax-regime-30336242.html2) And another covering the EU probe being launched:http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-06-05/eu-said-to-decide-next-week-on-probe-of-irish-dutch-tax-breaks

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30/5/2014: Detailed Analysis of Retail Sales for Ireland: April 2014

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Friday, May 30, 2014

In the previous post on Retail Sales data, I covered Q2 comparatives across the years (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/05/3052014-that-state-sanctioned-inflation.html). As promised, here is April data taken on a monthly frequency.There are several very interesting developments in terms of core retail sales data released earlier this week by CSO. […]

22/5/2014: Labor Mobility within Currency Unions & some Implications for Ireland

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Friday, May 23, 2014

A very interesting theoretical paper “Labor Mobility within Currency Unions ” by Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning, April 2014 (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2436714) looks at “the effects of labor mobility within a currency union suffering from nominal rigidities.”The departing point for the paper is Mundell (1961) famous dictum […]

18/5/2014: Global Gambling: Ireland of Saints & Scholars

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Sunday, May 18, 2014

A chart summarising some interesting stats on global gambling addiction…

Ireland in a ‘proud’ seventh position… and just like our ‘aspirational’ brethren in Finland, heavily into online gambling – a form of a-social entertainment that is pure addiction…

trueeconomics

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Ireland’s Fabled External Balance Performance: 1990-2013

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Sunday, May 4, 2014

Ireland’s external balance performance has always been a major point for departure in analysis of our economic growth, sustainability of our debt and overall consideration of our economic infrastructure quality. As a Small Open economy, Ireland is trade-intensive. As an MNCs-led economy, Ireland is […]

Wholesale Prices in Ireland: March 2014

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Friday, April 25, 2014, 2:27 PM

Deflation at consumer prices level is a two-edged sword. Whilst it normally rises savings and delays consumption, it also helps households stuck in debt to deleverage faster and it beefs up surplus savings available for investment.But deflation at producer prices level is […]

19/4/2014: If Only Forecasts Were Falling Ripe from Trees…

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, April 19, 2014

Here we go, folks… ESRI’s latest thoughts on Irish economy… and they are earth-shattering.Let’s take a few pointers from the wise:1) “Ireland could face a debilitating period of stagnation – characterised by high unemployment, falling prices and low growth – if recovery in Europe falters”.“Could”?! […]

Europe’s latest policy on Irish and Greek banking losses: A tale of two swindles too similar for comfort

yanisvaroufakis.eu / By yanisv / April 1, 2014

The Irish and the Greeks are, in many ways, very different people. And yet, caught up in the Euro Crisis, our fortunes have become too close for comfort. Recently, European authorities have devised a creative new method for damaging the people of Ireland and of Greece […]

8/2/2014: Irish Mortgages Crisis: More of a crisis, less of a solution

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, February 8, 2014

This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column from January 19, 2014.

With Dublin property prices and rental rates on the rise optimism about bricks and mortar is gradually re-infecting our living rooms and feeding through to the government and […]