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Technical Notes for ‘Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts…’

cyniconomics.com / ffwiley / July 16, 2014

This is a short appendix for our earlier post, “Never Mind Their Distrust of Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy,” in the usual Q&A format.

Why do you show three different series in the first chart?

We show “Net Private Debt from Census Bureau” [...]

“Anti-Putin” Alliance Fraying: Germany, Slovakia, Greece, Czech Republic Urge End To Russian Sanctions

zerohedge.com / Tyler Durden / 08/16/2014 11:04 -0400

Last week Germany reported that in the second quarter, its GDP declined by 0.2%, worse than Wall Street consensus. This happened a few shorts days after Italy reported a second consecutive decline in its own GDP, becoming the first Europen country to enter a triple-dip [...]

16/8/2014: Three Charts of Euro Area’s Abysmal Growth Performance

trueeconomics.blogspot.com / Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Saturday, August 16, 2014

Few charts to summarise the continued problems with growth in euro area and the ‘peripheral’ states:First, consider changes in real GDP on pre-crisis peak:

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Washington Post: Europe Is Stuck In a “Greater Depression”

washingtonsblog.com / August 15, 2014

It’s a Little Misleading to JUST Call This a Depression. It’s WORSE than That”

The Washington Post’s Wonkblog reports:

Europe hasn’t recovered, because it hasn’t let itself. Too much fiscal austerity and too little monetary stimulus have, instead, put it more than halfway to a lost decade that’s already [...]

Chinese Power Consumption Crashes: Lowest Growth In 16 Months, Tumbles 10% In Shanghai, As Much As 22% Elsewhere

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2014 15:02

When it comes to Chinese (or any other in these centrally-planned, fabricated days) economic data, there is GDP and then there is reality. And as the current premier of China himself has admitted, there is no more accurate indicator of real, not bullshit “growth”, than China’s monthly [...]

France’s Housing Construction “Recovery” From Hell

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / August 15, 2014

A lot of things are doing just fine in France, but the economy isn’t one of them. It’s burdened by a public sector that never ceases to bloat. In 2013, government spending, despite any overt efforts to limit it, grew to 57.1% of GDP, a [...]

U.S. Desperate To Halt German-Chinese-Russian Alliance

kingworldnews.com / August 15, 2014

Today an acclaimed money manager told King World News that that the United States is now desperately trying to put a stop to an alliance between Germany, China, and Russia. Stephen Leeb also said investors must be overweight physical gold and silver in order [...]

Japan’s Keynesian Demise: A Cautionary Tale For Our Times

davidstockmanscontracorner.com / by David Stockman / August 15, 2014

I remember it well. That is, the fiscal rectitude of the old Japan.

During early 1981 as the Reagan White House prepared its radical fiscal plan—-what Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker famously called a “riverboat gamble”—-we were visited by a high ranking delegation from the [...]

Great Graphic: Euro Remains Decoupled from Peripheral Spreads

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / August 13, 2014

The 10-year German bund yield dipped below 1.0% briefly today for the first time, encouraged by the unexpected contraction in Germany’s Q2 GDP. Ideas that the area’s stagnation in Q2 coupled with still no signs that inflation has bottomed, fans speculation of new initiatives by the [...]

Daily Pfennig: U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint. Again!

caseyresearch.com / By Chuck Butler / August 14, 2014 4:35am

In This Issue.

* Currencies remain mixed but… * The bias to buy dollars remains. * N.Z. Retail Sales are strong! * Rickards talks about Gold reserves

And Now. Today’s A Pfennig For Your Thoughts.

U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint. Again!

Good Day! . And a [...]

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Alibaba and the 40 Underwriters

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com / 13 AUGUST 2014

Stocks managed to rally despite economic numbers this morning for retail sales that sucked out loud, no ifs, ands, or buts. This does not bode well for Q3 GDP.I think my skepticism of the week before last about the stock market action being the rinse cycle in a wash [...]

Decision Time!

blog.milesfranklin.com / By Andrew Hoffman / August 13th, 2014

esterday was a prototypical example of TPTB attempting to prolong increasingly tenuous “recovery” and “de-escalation” propaganda by attacking “unfavorable” markets like PMs, while supporting “favorable” ones like equities. I mean, how many times can the “Dow Jones Propaganda Average” be supported by a 10:00 [...]

“Central Bank Post-Crisis Quasi-Coordination Has Broken Down”

zerohedge.com / From Guy Haselmann of ScotiaBank / 08/12/2014 18:24

Out There Beyond the Wall

Germany, France, Japan and the Eurozone are expected to follow Italy with flat or negative Q2 GDP when the data is released this week. Italy’s economy grew at -0.2% in Q2 and has not grown [...]

Japanese GDP Plunges 6.8% As Consumer Spending Collapses By Most On Record

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 08/12/2014 19:58

Compared to the 3.6% drop in GDP when Japan last hiked its consumption tax in 1997, today’s Q2 GDP collapse of 6.8% annualized is an utter disaster (even if it is slightly better than the expected -7.0% expectations thanks to a surge in the deflator). Inventory [...]

The Public Theft of Private Assets Always Precedes An Economic Collapse and That Time Is Upon Us

thecommonsenseshow.com / by Dave Hodges / August 12, 2014

The American economy is living on borrowed time through the infusion of massive amounts of “printed out of thin air” cash being printed by the Federal Reserve. Anyone with an IQ above room temperature knows that the inevitable economic crash is looming on the [...]

Prepare For Q3 GDP Collapse – Here Comes Polar Vortex 2.0

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 08/11/2014 21:18

We now know the devastation that the Polar Vortex 1.0 caused on a fragile US economy in Q1 – because, it must be the weather, right? and not stagnating wages and over-leveraged consumers. So, it is woth great concern that we report, Accuweather states [...]

Greek Bailout 3.0? It’s All Russia’s Fault

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 08/11/2014 17:15

Despite 30% general unemployment, the majority of youths jobless, GDP forecasts already disappointing, and government asset sales at rock-bottom prices, Greek leaders are preparing to blame any missed growth expectations on Russia. As Bloomberg reports, hopes of a 2014 exit from its deepest recession [...]

Alarming Failure of French Economy; Expect Serious Tremors in September

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / August 11, 2014

Les Echo discusses the Alarming Failure of French Economy.

GDP for the second quarter will be released Thursday, and it does not look good. Industrial production declined in the second quarter, foreshadowing very low GDP growth. It’s a moment of truth for the [...]

Nothing New Under The Sun

gold-eagle.com / by Andy Sutton / August 11, 2014

Probably the biggest reason this column has been silent for the past few months is that there has been so much to say; yet there is nothing really new to say. Sometimes I wonder how reporters do it. They write essentially the same story every [...]

Dow Surges To Best Friday Since January Amid Geopolitical Chaos

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 08/08/2014 16:06

NATO threats to Russia – storm in a teacup. ISIS and Iraq airstrikes – transitory. Israel-Hamas un-cease-fire – fuggetabaadit. This was the week to buy stocks… the riskiest, most overvalued growth-oriented stocks. GDP downgrades – no sweat. Russell 2000 surges to its best week in the [...]

There Goes Q2 GDP – Wholesale Inventories Miss By Most In 16 Months

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 08/08/2014 10:11

Against expectations of a further rise in inventory build of 0.7%, wholesale inventories rose only 0.3% in June (the same pace as in May) missing by the most since February 2013. With GDP now basically an exercise in inventory expansion and contraction (Q2 inventory [...]

“Iraq Is A Catastrophe”, Obama May Announce Iraq Airstrikes Imminently, NYT Reports

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 08/07/2014 12:27

Just in case there weren’t enough potential GDP-boosting war hotzones around the world, Obama is now preparing to go back to ground zero, Iraq, where the NYT just reported he is “considering airstrikes or airdrops of food and medicine to address a humanitarian crisis among [...]

Embry – The Most Dangerous & Frightening Period In History

kingworldnews.com / August 5, 2014

Today a man who has been involved in the financial markets for 50 years told King World News that we are living through the most dangerous and frightening period in world history. Below is what John Embry, who is business partners with billionaire Eric Sprott, had to say in [...]

3 Things That Can’t Stay Hidden Long: The Sun, The Moon, & The Truth

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 08/04/2014 19:50

“The consensus narrative on market developments is set to implode,” warns Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank’s chief economist and chief investment officer. In his latest note, he explains precisely how to position ahead of the storm, with everything from calls on gold to German government bonds and [...]

Unmitigated Disaster

blog.milesfranklin.com / By Andrew Hoffman / August 4th, 2014

As David Stockman brilliant writes, there is not even a remote mathematical chance of economic recovery, particularly as 10,000 baby boomers will be retiring each day for the next 16 years. A figure, by the way, that would be far higher if not for the rocketing [...]

Inflation Trumps Growth

europac.net / By Peter Schiff / August 4, 2014

With the first half of 2014 now in the books, many investors are happy with the performance thus far, especially given the economic headwinds that few saw coming. The 26% rally in U.S. stocks in 2013 gave way to a more modest 7% gain in [...]

Defining Away Economic Failure — Paul Craig Roberts

paulcraigroberts.org / BY Paul Craig Roberts / August 4, 2014

Last week’s government guesstimate that second quarter 2014 real GDP growth will be 4% seems nonsensical on its face. There is no evidence of increases in real median family incomes or real consumer credit that would lift the economy from a first quarter [...]

Surmounting Distortions & News Blackouts Threatening Investments

silverbearcafe.com / Deepcaster / August 2, 2014

“Booming Initial Estimate for Second-Quarter GDP Largely Was Fluff….

“With the government’s estimates of GDP activity so far removed from reality, the issue here is not whether the U.S. economy is booming along or not. It is not; [...]

This Market Is a Titanic in Search of an Iceberg

wolfstreet.com / Bill Bonner / August 1, 2014

What was that sound? Did you feel a little bump?

Nah… don’t worry about it. Go back to your cabin and have a good sleep.

Just when things were going so well! With all that GDP growth! All those new jobs! [...]

Don’t Trust the Government’s GDP Claim

acting-man.com / Author Bill Bonner / August 1, 2014 |

“I think GDP will come in lower than expected,”

we told her. “And then it will be revised downward. Probably negative.”

We were wrong. Instead, the number that the feds delivered yesterday surprised to the upside. The US economy grew [...]