Mariano Rajoy, shortly after seeing the latest Moody’s downgrades coming over the wires. The joy over the election victory in Galicia didn’t last long. (Photo credit: Rafa Rivas)
acting-man.com / By Pater Tenebrarum / October 23, 2012
An Important Election Win, but the Devil is in the Details
Mariano Rajoy can rest easy in the knowledge that he at least still gets the nod from voters in his home base and stronghold, the Spanish region of Galicia. His People’s Party actually managed to increase its majority in the region in elections over the weekend.
According to Bloomberg, this was seen as a vindication of his policies. But as you will see, the devil is in the details. Moreover, in separate elections in the Basque Country, the Basque Nationalist Party won the majority of the vote and is about to form a government with the separatist Bildu party. So Madrid now has to potentially face two separatist insurrections. Spain may yet fall apart (this is not necessarily a bad thing in our view, more on this further below).
„Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party said victory in regional elections yesterday that extended its majority in Galicia vindicated his austerity program.
“The steps that we have explained have to be taken to resolve the crisis have had overwhelming support,” Carlos Floriano, the party campaign chief, said in an interview on public broadcaster Radio Nacional de Espana. “There is no precedent in this crisis situation of a government not just defending but increasing its majority.”
The PP won 41 of the 75 seats in the regional assembly, adding three. The Socialists lost almost half of their votes and a new leftist group took nine seats.
In the Basque Country, the Basque Nationalist Party won 27 seats, allowing it to lead a government in the 75-seat chamber through alliances with other parties including the 21 separatist lawmakers of Bildu.“
A ‘new leftist group’ took nine seats? That is actually the detail that one should focus on. If Galicia’s election result is indicative of the mood on a national level (we are not saying it is, but it may well be), then it indicates that the relatively moderate political center is falling apart in Spain, just as is happening to varying degrees elsewhere in Europe.
One must not forget, political incumbents generally have great trouble holding on to their majorities in times of economic contraction and a waxing negative social mood. For the eurocracy that has so far never presented a big problem, as it didn’t matter much with regards to the EU’s ‘super-state agenda’ whether a nominally conservative or a social democratic party won an election. Both sides could be relied upon to fully support the EU and the euro project.
Spain is in fact a case in point: the socialist Zapatero government that preceded Rajoy’s was just as eagerly implementing the EU’s demands regarding deficit and debt targets and the associated austerity measures while it was in power (although it did of course later turn out to have fudged the numbers big time, but that is not an exclusive province of the socialists in Spain).
So from the point of view of Brussels, it matters little whether the PP or the socialists are in power on a national level. However, if the socialists begin to lose their support to an unknown ‘new leftist group’, things could become a tad more problematic when the time to boot out the incumbents rolls around again. Think Greece and SYRIZA – you never know what the ideas of the new guys with regards to austerity and diktats from Brussels will turn out to be.
Since the Catalan election looms on November 25, one can at this point be pretty certain that the ESM bailout request will be lodged before then – as thereafter, Rajoy will have his hands full with having to deal with two separatism minded regions at once.
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