trueeconomics.blogspot.com / By Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev / Tuesday, March 5, 2013
To the ‘turning around’ reports from the Eastern Front ca 1943… err… 2013… per KBC Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index, consumer sentiment in Ireland fell in February to 59.4 compared to January reading of blistering 64.2. The report gets ‘serious’ on dynamics: “The three-month moving average also decreased from 59.3 to 57.8. The index fell below the average for the last 12 months (61.9).”
Let me add some more dynamics to this. First, let’s look at January 2012 data (since we do not have Retail Sales Indices for February yet):
- Current 3mo average for Retail Sales Value Index is 96.8, down from 96.9 for 3mo average through October 2012, Volume is up from 100.3 to 100.5. Overall, indices are basically flat (+/-0.1% is not a significant change by anyone’s standards, even for this Government);
- 3mo average of Consumer Confidence index through January 2013 was 59.3 down on 63.7 for the 3 months though October 2012.
- 6mo average, however, shows a slightly different story: Value of sales is up from 95.3 average reading for 6 months through June 2012 to 96.8 average for 6 months through December 2012; Volume is up from 98.8 to 100.4 over the same period, and Consumer Confidence is up from 105.8 to 107.7.
KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index is about as good of a gauge for retail sector activity here as the elephants’ herd gate tempo is of use for timing the Swan Lake pas de deux. If you don’t believe me, here’s a chart:
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