zerohedge.com / By Tyler Durden / February 10, 2013, 19:44
With China offline celebrating its New Year, and potentially mobilizing forces in (not so) secret, and not much on the global event docket, the upcoming G20 Finance Ministers meeting in Moscow at the end of the week will be the key event for FX markets, which these days define every other aspect of risk. It should surprise nobody the last couple of weeks have seen increased attention on exchange rates and the frequent use of the “currency war” label by policymakers in many countries. No news announcements are expected at the BoJ meeting on Thursday, following the formal announcement of a 2% inflation target and an open-ended asset purchase program.
On the data side, US retail sales on Wednesday will provide an important signal about the strength of the US consumer following the largest tax increase in decades. Although January auto and same store sales data was reasonably solid, new taxes will soon begin to weigh on spending. Also on Wednesday, Japan Q4 GDP will be released. On Thursday, Q4 GDP for France, Germany, Italy and the Euro area will be released. While Q4 contraction is assured, the key question mark is whether German can rebound in Q1 and avoid a full blown recession as opposed to a “brief, technical” one, as the New Normal economic term goes.
Key macro events in the coming week:
Monday 11th February
- Czech Republic CPI: Consensus: +2.1%, Previous: +2.4%.
- Also interesting: US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Yellen speaks on US labor recovery. The speech could shed light on which labor market indicators the Fed will be watching in addition to its 6.5% unemployment threshold.
Tuesday 12 February
- Indonesia Central Bank Meeting: Consensus: 5.75%, Previous: 5.75%.
- UK CPI: Previous: +2.7% yoy.