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When a Black Swan Threatens

caseyresearch.com / By Vedran Vuk / January 25, 2013

After the tragic events at Sandy Hook Elementary, I said to a friend of mine, “People have to stay armed in case the government ever becomes overly tyrannical.” My friend gave an annoyed response that I’ve heard a million times: “Well, that’s not going to happen. The government isn’t going to become tyrannical.”

To a certain extent, he’s right. I seriously doubt that you’ll ever need to use your firearm to fight your own government. Let’s hope that you don’t. It’s a very low-probability event. But then again, ironically, so was the shooting at Sandy Hook.

If someone had told me a few months ago that a person was going to kill twenty kids in an elementary school, I would have said, “No way! There’s no chance of something like thatever happening. In fact, you’re even a bit of a weirdo for having considered something of the sort. Go see a shrink!” Unfortunately, I would have been extremely wrong.

Despite the intro of this article, my point here isn’t about gun control, but instead low-probability events. When should we worry about them, why, and how we can protect ourselves from them?

I’ve heard my friend’s response many times on all kinds of political issues unrelated to gun control. Hyperinflation? “That’s not going to happen.” The US could become a socialist nation. “That’s not going to happen.” It’s always the same response. Not only can these sorts of things happen – they do happen, and sometimes more frequently than one may realize.

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