thedailybell.com / By Andrew Hoffman / December 31st, 2012
In last December’s “2012 EXPECTATIONS,” I expressed reluctance to predict near-term events. Frankly, I find most “year-ahead” forecasts to be USELESS; particularly when utilized as marketing tools rather than honest thought pieces. I feel no differently of this age-old rite of the financial industry; so again, I am caveating my “forecast” with the following disclaimer…
I mean, who knows what will happen? There are simply too many moving parts to gauge, as the global economy is a ‘living system’ comprised of volatile, unpredictable human beings and – in today’s world – increasingly dangerous computer algorithms capable of reeking incomprehensible damage by accident. Throw in the wrath of Mother Nature – who in recent years has been on the warpath; and the largest unknown of all – collective human confidence – and such forecasts become comical at best.
Nearly all “2013 forecasts” I’ve read thus far are simple extrapolations of what we see today; a psychological trait common to all human activity, particularly in financial markets where for centuries investors have ‘bought high and sold low’ – following the near-term trend instead of understanding the bigger picture.
Given these constraints, and exponential growth in government market intervention – both OVERT and COVERT; I will not attempt any wild predictions – “pulled out of my arse,” as some might say. Instead, I will cite general trends that I expect to continue, if not accelerate, in the coming 12 months. Forgive me if I too, fall victim to the “extrapolation bias.”
That said, I reviewed my 2012 forecasts and found them to be pretty close to reality – by essentially ALL metrics – per the bullet points below…
- The European debt crisis will dramatically deteriorate
- The U.S. Economy will weaken
- “Global QE” will become increasingly OVERT
- Gold will rise for the 12th straight year
- Gold will not remain below its 200 DMA for long
- The gold/silver ratio will decline
- Market volatility will EXPLODE
- Survivalism” will grow, worldwide
- The 2012 U.S. elections will break all records of campaign contributions, lies, smear campaigns, and SURPRISES
- Most investments will be deadly