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S&P Spikes Into The Close After Politico Reports Again Powell Is Leading Fed Candidate

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 4:17 PM

One week after Politico reported for the second time that Trump, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, were leaning toward Fed governor Jerome “Jay” Powell for Fed Chair, Politico’s Ben White and Josh Dawsey decided to triple down, and with minutes left until the close, Politico reported – for the third time in three weeks – that “Powell is the leading candidate to become the chair of the U.S. central bank after President Donald Trump concluded a series of meetings with five finalists Thursday, three administration officials said.

Repeating what it had said one week ago, and then a week prior (which is fine, algos and millennial traders these days have short memories) the authors repeated that “Trump hasn’t yet made a final decision” and that “Powell, known as Jay, has been heavily favored by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who is leading the Fed chair search for Trump.

As for the other candidates, Politico had this to say:

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CAUTION: Here Is The WTF? Chart Of 2017

kingworldnews.com / October 19, 2017

As central banks pretend stocks will stay elevated without the cocaine of additional QE, here is the WTF? chart of 2017.

Mania In Full Swing
By Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report

October 20 (King World News) – 
Here is what Peter Boockvar wrote as the world awaits the next round of monetary madness: 
Here is a chart of the Russell 2000 since the beginning of 2017 in yellow with earnings estimates for the components (see chart below).

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Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – All Is Well -1987 and Its Consequences

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com / 19 OCTOBER 2017

“On a side bar. remember a couple of years ago, when I went on CNBC to talk to them about things that were happening in the markets in the afterhours that didn’t make sense, and looked like an ‘outside force’ was moving them?   And they laughed at me, and told me to take my theory to Hollywood, and see if they would make a movie of it!  And then a month or so later, a guy came out and proved my theory?  Well. I have to believe that the rise of Gold and Silver, the rise of Treasury yields, and Oil, all being reversed on a dime, smells like PPT. it walks like PPT. and it talks like PPT.”

Chuck Butler, Everbank World Markets

“Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.”

Robert Heller, Federal Reserve Board

“There is no trap so deadly as the trap you set for yourself.”

Raymond Chandler, The Long Goodbye

Today is the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, the crash of 1987.  I remember it very well.

As you may not recall, on Tuesday following the crash, with the futures market indicating a significantly lower open, Alan Greenspan and the Fed came in buying SP 500 futures in order to turn the markets around. And it worked.   And it continued, with the Fed supporting the equity markets with jawboning, persuasion, and occasionally direct intervention, so that by the end of the year all was well with the markets.

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Buy-The-Black-Monday-Echo-Dip – Stocks Dip & Rip After China Bubble Warnings

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 4:06 PM

NOTE: Before we start – something went very funky in the last couple of minutes of the market today – TRUMP SAID TO BE LEANING TOWARD POWELL FOR FED CHAIR: POLITICO – a Dovish pick…

For a brief moment there this morning, some reality poked its head out of the cave after PBOC’s Zhou raised fears of asset bubbles needing to be controlled, Hong Kong stocks crashed, Spain appeared to invoke Article 155, and AAPL slid on sales concerns… but that did not last long as commission-takers reminded the machines that 1987 can never happen again.. ever.. and that every dip is beholden to be bid…

Small Caps and Nasdaq remain red on the week as The Dow pushes on…

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OCT19/GOLD AND SILVER RISE ON HUGE BOMBSHELL STORY OUT OF THE USA:FBI HID INVESTIGATION ON URANIUM SCANDAL/MOSTLY LIKELY THERE WILL BE MANY CHARGES LAID/

harveyorganblog.com /  by harveyorgan / October 19, 2017

GOLD: $1288.40 UP $7.20

Silver: $17.25 UP 25 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1289.65

silver: $17.26

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1290.80 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1277.70

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $13.10(premiums getting larger)

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1292;30

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1279.20

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$13.10(PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1283.40

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1283.40

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1286.40

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1286.40

For comex gold:

OCTOBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR  300  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2439 FOR 243,900 OZ  (7.586TONNES)

For silver:

OCTOBER

3 NOTICES

FILED TODAY FOR

15,000  OZ/Total number of notices filed so far this month: 779 for 3,895,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXBitcoin:  $5569 bid /$5589 offer DOWN $16.00  (MORNING)

BITCOIN CLOSING;$5681.00 BID/$5699.00 UP $95.00

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Spot The Odd One Out: ‘War On Drugs’ Edition

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 3:55 PM

USA, USA, USA!!!

As we noted previouslythe over-criminalization of America is a relatively recent trend. As Holly Harris notes:

It wasn’t always like this. In 1972, for every 100,000 U.S. residents, 161 were incarcerated. By 2015, that rate had more than quadrupled, with nearly 670 out of every 100,000 Americans behind bars.

The over-criminalization of America is rooted in federal laws and regulations, and state and local governments have followed suite. here is Harris’s account:

The burgeoning U.S. prison population reflects a federal criminal code that has spiraled out of control. No one—not even the government itself—has ever been able to specify with any certainty the precise number of federal crimes defined by the 54 sections contained in the 27,000 or so pages of the U.S. Code. In the 1980s, lawyers at the Department of Justice attempted to tabulate the figure “for the express purpose of exposing the idiocy” of the criminal code, as one of them later put it. The best they were able to come up with was an educated guess of 3,000 crimes. Today, the conservative Heritage Foundation estimates that federal laws currently enumerate nearly 5,000 crimes, a number that grows every year.

Overcriminalization extends beyond the law books, partly because regulations are often backed by criminal penalties. That is the case for rules that govern matters as trivial as the sale of grated cheese, the precise composition of chicken Kiev dishes, and the washing of cars at the headquarters of the National Institutes of Health. State laws add tens of thousands more such crimes. Taken together, they push the total number of criminally punishable offenses in the United States into the hundreds of thousands. The long arm of the law reaches into nearly every aspect of American life. The legal scholar Harvey Silverglate has concluded that the typical American commits at least three federal felonies a day, simply by going through his or her normal routine.

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The Hard Way is the Right Way

mauldineconomics.com / BY JARED DILLIAN / OCTOBER 19, 2017

You’ve probably noticed that I’ve spent a lot of time over the past six weeks talking about ETFs.

This is a pretty good summary of the thinking on the current state of the ETF industry—if you haven’t read these pieces, I suggest you check them out.

And of course, my new ETF-focused newsletter, ETF 20/20, launched on Monday. The response has been overwhelming, which shouldn’t be a surprise. Imagine being coached on building a diversified ETF portfolio by an ETF expert—at a cost of a dinner for two at Applebee’s. Including drinks.

People say ETFs are cheap, and ETF advice, like robo-advisors, is cheap. This takes it to another level.

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Ep. 294: 30-Year Anniversary of the 1987 Stock Market Crash

Peter Schiff, Published on Oct 19, 2017

GE Options Are Pricing In Massive Dividend Cuts

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 3:40 PM

GE shares are languishing at more than four year lows (as the broader market soars to record highs) and GE credit risk stands at 8 month highs (almost dopuble the post-crisis lows hit in June). As Goldman analyst Joe Ritchie warns, a significant earnings per share/free cash flow reset looms and the prospect of a dividend cut is dragging the stocks lower.

Ricthie says he would “ideally want to get more positive” with the stock hitting 52-week lows and sentiment at its most bearish since initiating coverage four years ago, however, a fresh look at fundamentals “leaves us incrementally bearish.”

Expects new CEO John Flannery to make changes necessary to position the company better for longer-term prosperity.

GE’s stock dividend yield has never been so high to its corporate bond yield…

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This is What it Looks Like When Credit Markets Go Nuts

wolfstreet.com / by Wolf Richter / 

Pricing of risk kicks bucket in record central-bank absurdity.

As the days pass, the perverse effects of central bank policies on the financial markets are getting more and more amazing. This includes the record-setting nuttiness now reigning in the European bond market, compared to the mere semi-nuttiness in the US bond market.

The 10-year yield of US Treasury Securities closed at 2.34% yesterday and at 2.33% today. This is low by historical standards. It’s barely above the rate of consumer price inflation as measured by CPI, which was 2.2% in September. This means that coupon payments barely make up for the loss of purchasing power. If inflation ticks up just a little, bondholders will be left in the hole. And a yield this low doesn’t compensate bondholders for any other risks, including duration risk, which can be significant. In other words, this is a bad deal.

But in this strange world, it looks practically sane, compared to the Draghi-engineered negative-yield absurdity that has overtaken the Eurozone, where the average yield of euro junk bonds – the riskiest bonds out there – dropped to 2.16%.

This chart, based on the BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Index via the St. Louis Fed, shows how the average euro junk-bond yield (red line) has plunged so far this year, on the way to what? Zero? The 10-year US Treasury yield (black line) has started rising in past weeks and, in late September rose above the euro junk bond yield for the first time ever:

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Whatever GOLD HAPPENS in China STAYS in China | David Morgan

Reluctant Preppers, Published on Oct 19, 2017

Renowned Gold & Silver guru David Morgan returns to Reluctant Preppers to dispel the raging rumor that the Chinese government is issuing GOLD-BACKED OIL CONTRACTS denominated in Yuan, reputed to embody an emerging threat to the US Petro Dollar. Morgan goes on to illuminate the twisted illogic behind money flows that are seeking safety, and why you should be looking in a DIFFERENT place. Finally, Morgan shares some key insights from recent editions of The Morgan Report, and even the most recent PERSONAL ACTION STEP​ has taken to increase preparedness!

Bernie To Americans: “Sure, You’ll All Pay More Taxes… But You’ll Get More Free Stuff”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 3:25 PM

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the runner-up for the Democratic Party’s nomination for president in 2016, told an audience on CNN Wednesday night that Americans would be happy to pay more in federal income taxes if he could just explain to them it would mean they’ll get more “free” government benefits, including health care, child care and college.

As DailyCaller.com’s Derek Hunter details, in a televised debate against Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Sanders told the audience the American people would support his economic vision if only he were able to explain it to them.

“If we can explain to people, ‘Yeah, you’re going to be paying more in taxes. It’s going to be a progressive tax system,’” Sanders told the crowd,

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5 Shameful Corporate Scandals That Won’t Go Away in 2018

Source: Youtube

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Casey Wilson via Money Morning / 

Corporate scandals dominated the headlines in 2017. Uber alone experienced dozens of scandals in 2017.

And it’s almost guaranteed many of the 2017 corporate scandals listed below will carry over into 2018.

Here’s a look at five of the most shameful corporate scandals that will follow these companies into the new year…

Most Shameful Corporate Scandals, No. 5: Uber Technologies Inc.

The problems for ride-hailing giant Uber in 2017 started almost immediately.

On Jan. 28, the day U.S. President Donald Trump signed his executive travel ban, thousands of protests broke out at airports across the country. During a taxi driver work stoppage, and much to the dismay of protesters, former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick directed his staff to continue working during the events. Coincidentally, Kalanick was also part of Trump’s Economic Advisory Council at the time.

Angry customers accused the company of attempting to profit from the taxi protest, and the hashtag #DeleteUber began trending on Twitter – prompting Kalanick’s resignation from the council.

But Uber’s PR nightmare had just begun…

Just two weeks later, on Feb. 19, a former Uber employee outed the company for widespread, severe sexual harassment in the workplace, and #DeleteUber started trending again on Twitter.

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The Event Warning Meter Has Hit Code Red – Episode 1405b

X22Report, Published on Oct 19, 2017

The wealthy are storing their cryptocurrency in  Swiss underground vaults.The FBI informant that wants to testify has been threatened. The former FEC chair wants the government to crack down on disinformation and have the those who spread it libel for it. North Korea is allegedly building a ballistic submarine. Iraq wants the Kurds to stop selling oil. The event meter is off the charts, it has hit code red.

Trump Met With Janet Yellen; Meeting Lasted 30 Minutes

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 3:16 PM

The anticipated meeting between president Trump and Janet Yellen has concluded, and according to Fox News, it lasted no more than 30 minutes, running from 2:00PM to 2:30PM, or barely enough for Trump to stop patting himself on the back about the yuuge Dow Jones rally under his presidency.

And to think it was a just over a year ago that Trump was bashing Yellen for creating a stock bubble with the help of low rates, shortly after urging his fans to sell their stocks.

As a reminder, last September, Trump said that “keeping the rates artificially low so the economy doesn’t go down so that Obama can say that he did a good job. They’re keeping the rates artificially low so that Obama can go out and play golf in January and say that he did a good job. It’s a very false economy. We have a bad economy, everybody understands that but it’s a false economy. The only reason the rates are low is so that he can leave office and he can say, ‘See I told you.’

Which in light of recent Trump tweets is… ironic.

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A Political Realignment is Necessary – The Real Struggle is Liberty vs. Authoritarianism

libertyblitzkrieg.com / Michael Krieger /  

Until the American public ceases bickering amongst itself along Democratic and Republican or “left” vs. “right” lines, we’ll continue to be divided and conquered by authoritarians who wield tremendous power throughout both sides of the traditional political spectrum. This isn’t to say there aren’t real, meaningful differences between those who classify themselves on the “left” or the “right,” but it is to say there’s a much bigger battle afoot and nothing’s going to get better until we frame the new political reality for what it is. The most significant, existential struggle at play in these modern United States is a battle between Liberty and Authoritarianism, and it’s extremely important you know where you stand.

While the entire Bill of Rights of the U.S. Constitution is crucial to our civil liberties, no right is more significant than the First Amendment. If we lose freedom of speech, it’s game over for our society, and we have to understand that authoritarians on both the “right” and “left” are taking shots at freedom of speech as I write this. As such, differences between “right” and “left” should be deemphasized because if we lose the First Amendment, we lose everything.

A major political realignment is not simply a good idea, it’s absolutely crucial to the survival of a thriving civilization here in the U.S. The historical struggle we face today is not Democrat vs. Republican, or right vs. left, but Liberty vs. Authoritarianism. 

Let’s get started by highlighting an extremely creepy proposal recently published, titled, Fool Me Once: The Case for Government Regulation of “Fake News. One of the authors is Ann M. Ravel, who was previously a Democratic Commissioner on the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

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“Maximum Devastation” Homeland Security Chief Says ISIS Is Planning To Bring Down Planes In “New 9/11” Style Attack

shtfplan.com / Alex Thomas / October 19th, 2017

ISIS is currently plotting a “new 9/11” style attack that would once again see American planes brought down in order to cause “maximum devastation” warned acting Homeland Security Chief Elaine Duke.

Speaking during a stop at the US embassy in London, Duke claimed that recent intelligence has shown that the terror group wants a “big explosion” like that of 9/11 rather than the horrific but geopolitically minor attacks seen in recent years.

“The terrorist organizations, be it ISIS or others, want to have the big explosion like they did on 9/11 . They want to take down aircraft, the intelligence is clear on that,” Duke said before going on to also warn that ISIS has in no means abandoned smaller scale attacks.

“However, in the interim they need to keep their finances flowing and they need to keep their visibility high and they need to keep their members engaged, so they are using small plots and they are happy to have small plots.”

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Vladimir Putin: “Don’t Back North Korea Into A Corner”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 3:15 PM

Nobody puts little Rocket Man in a corner.

As we’ve noted time and time again, tensions between the US and North Korea have only intensified since Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed last month that the two countries were on the verge of a nuclear conflict, a warning that the North’s Deputy Ambassador to the UN echoed on Monday, but has so far done little to dent the rally in global stock markets.

But with Russia at least ostensibly reining in support for Kim Jong Un’s increasingly isolated regime, Putin inadvertently channeled the late, great Patrick Swayze during a speech at the annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting on Thursday when he warned that foreign powers should avoid “backing North Korea into a corner.” Doing so would risk provoking a desperate, violent response, he said.

Putin added that the North is a “sovereign state” and reiterated his call that the standoff between the US and its regional allies and the Kim regime could only be resolved with dialogue – a solution that Russia and China – the North’s primary benefactor – have been pushing for months, NBC reported.

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Getting Your Feet Wet In Cryptos

news.goldseek.com / By Avi Gilburt with Ryan Wilday / 19 October 2017 

Introduction

I want to begin this new series on crypto-currency by introducing my co-author, Ryan Wilday.

In 2012, with twelve years of trading behind him, Ryan had no interest in, or knowledge of, crypto currency. However, a chat with a programmer friend about Bitcoin peaked his curiosity. He then dug up a chart and, despite all his years of experience trading, he couldn’t make sense of its sudden spikes and deep drops.

Since his initial introduction into crypto-currencies, much has changed in Ryan’s life. Today, he is currently leading the newly created Crypto Currency Service at Elliott Wave Trader (EWT). And, every week, he is meeting new people online and in person, introducing them to the concepts surrounding cryptos, and how to trade them.

So, Ryan and I are going to collaborate on a series of articles to guide you on how you can get involved in this market for the first time. We will outline how to trade this asset class, and we will also provide our opinion as to whether we have a bubble ready to pop. In later articles, we will focus on a few of the large cap coins and where we see them going, through the Elliott Wave lens.

But, first, how does one start?

Not all about Bitcoin

By now, many people know Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency. Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple are a few of the other large ones. In fact, the site coinmarketcap.com tracks over 1100 crypto coins. Yet, few know that bitcoin or any crypto currency is not the real innovation. It is Blockchain technology which is the true breakthrough. Although Blockchain is a challenging concept to understand, it is probably the biggest innovation in the internet since the URL.

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The Economic Indicators Are Piling Up & They Are Pointing Towards A Collapse – Episode 1405a

X22Report, Published on Oct 19, 2017

UK retail sales decline. The initial jobless claims are back to 1973 level. Every time this happens where the initial jobless claims drop low we end up in a recession.  Illinois pension system is in trouble and there is nothing that can be done about. It has been proven that GDP is completely manipulated, just like unemployment, stock market, corporate sales etc.

No Vol And No Volume – Even The WSJ Questions Equity Melt-Up

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 2:55 PM

It’s encouraging to see that one mainstream media outlet questioning the recent market melt-up which wasn’t just notable for the lack of volatility, but also a severe lack of volume. The new normal seems to be “No vol and no volume”, although we saw a bit of a regime shift today, before the normal reversal.

The WSJ noted today that “Stocks continue to hit record highs, yet those pushing them there are trading less and less. The number of stocks and exchange-traded products changing hands in the U.S. and Europe has fallen steadily in recent months as ultralow volatility, a lack of market-moving news and the rising popularity of passive investment funds have kept many investors on the sidelines.”

The chart below of trading volume in both regions is ugly, to say the least, especially in Europe where it’s the lowest in five years.Aggregated trading volume for NYSE, NYSE American, NYSE Arca and the NASDAQ this month is reported to be down 12% versus the average for the year and 22% below last year’s average. It’s become so bad that even ETF trading is 8.5% below last year.

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$15 Trillion Of Worldwide QE, The Stock Market, Gold And Making History

kingworldnews.com / October 19, 2017

As we head into the final trading day in the third week of October, here is a look at $15 trillion of worldwide QE, the stock market, gold and making history.

By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
October 19 (King World News) – 
Last night a news story broke indicating that Apple had to cut orders to its suppliers as much as 50% because the Apple 8 was not selling well. Of course, that should not be surprising to anyone who has been paying attention. I myself have discussed the fact that the Apple 8 was an air ball upon its release, as there has been little demand for it. The bulls have tried to suggest that Apple 8 demand is as poor as it is because everyone is waiting for the Apple X, which is obviously a rationalization, and, oh, by the way, they are having trouble producing the X…

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On a Knife’s Edge: 3 Reasons the Next Crash Could Be Worse than Black Monday

schiffgold.com / BY SCHIFFGOLD /  

Thirty years ago today, the US stock market had its worst single day in history.

On Oct. 19, 1987, now known simply as “Black Monday,” the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 508 points. That represented 22.6% of its value.

Over the last couple of year, stocks have enjoyed a meteoric rise. The Dow closed above 23,000 for the first time this week. But in recent months, bankers and investors around the world have expressed started expressing concern about the rapidly inflating stock market bubble and its future impact on the world economy. Just last month, Tiger Management co-founder Julian Robertson unequivocally called the US stock market a bubble and blamed it on the Fed’s interventionist monetary policy.

At some point, the soaring market will fall back to earth, and MarketWatch columnist Howard Gold says the next crash may prove worse than Black Monday.

As Gold points out, in the aftermath of the 1987 crash, the recession didn’t officially kick off until 1990. That was nearly three years after Black Monday. As a result, a lot of people dismiss the 1987 crash as a mere blip on the radar. But Gold cites a book by Diana B. Henriques to make the case that Black Monday was more than just one bad day. Henriques argues it was a  painful bear market that lasted three months and included a nearly 35% drop in the Dow Jones.

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India, China, U.S., Complain Of Venezuelan Crude Oil Quality Issues

zerohedge.com / by Zainab Calcuttawala via OilPrice.com /  Oct 19, 2017 2:40 PM

Venezuela’s Indian, Chinese, and American clients are complaining that crude shipments from PDVSA are poor in quality and are resulting in demands for discounts and returned shipments, according to a new report by Reuters, including interviews with over a dozen sources and supporting documents.

The disputes involve the contamination of crude with water, soil, and other minerals that make it difficult for refineries to effectively process crude for mass consumption. 

But the sources speculated that the low quality of shipments was due to lack of upkeep at PDVSA facilities as officials try to cut corners to save operating costs.

In addition, the state-owned company lacks the resources to buy chemicals that aid in the long-term storage of crude before shipment. 

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Petro-Plunder Worsens in Mexico

wolfstreet.com / by Don Quijones /  

Scaring off sorely needed investments in fuel distribution systems. 

A year and a half after Mexico opened its fuel market to private competition, almost all gasoline sold at BP and Royal Dutch Shell stations continues to come from state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos, A.K.A. Pemex.

Mexico lacks a sufficiently advanced and coordinated network of oil pipelines and storage terminals that would allow the flow of imported products from the port to the gas stations. As the company’s chief executive, Jose Antonio González Anaya, said in a recent visit to Washington, Pemex has a “grotesque lack of storage and transportation capacity.”

Mexico allowed private companies to import fuel for the first time in April 2016 under broader reforms aimed at encouraging competition and investment. So far, 32 private companies have sent diesel to Mexico and 17 have brought in gasoline, according to Mexico’s Energy Secretariat. But the volumes are a tiny fraction of the nearly 800,000 barrels per day that Pemex imports.

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