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zerohedge.com / Via Dana Lyons’ Tumblr on 11/25/2015 15:30
The bull market in U.S. equities has narrowed over the past 6 months as strength has become concentrated in large cap stocks. Recently, strength has narrowed even among those large caps.
One common theme in these pages (and others) over the past 6 months has been the narrowing of participation in the equity bull market. That is, the rally has persisted among the major averages, but fewer and fewer stocks are rallying alongside. This dynamic is possible, of course, due to the uneven weighting of most stock indexes. The largest stocks, either by market cap or by price, have the greatest impact on the performance of the indexes. And those big-cap stocks have shown little propensity thus far to slow down. However, just recently, we are seeing the narrowing of the rally even among these large cap stocks.
It’s only about five weeks until 2016. Stock market performance history shows these are typically good days for the Dow and S&P 500 – but this year could be different…
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has averaged a 2% gain from Thanksgiving through the end of the year. The broad-based benchmark has been higher roughly 70% of the time, rising in 46 of those 65 periods.
However, if the S&P 500 ends today in the red year to date, its performance for the rest of the year has historically deteriorated. It averages a 1.8% dip through the remainder of the year, according the Almanac. That has occurred 22 times over the last 65 years. The index has been higher 64% of the time.
Heading into this Thanksgiving holiday, as of mid-day Wednesday, the index is up 1.55% for the year. The Dow is up 0.12%.
Shortly after the Su-24 bomber was shot down along the border of Syria and Turkey, Russian and Turkish officials were quick to blame each other for the incident. Ankara claims that the bomber violated their airspace after multiple warnings, while Moscow has said that no such violation occurred. The pilot who survived the attack has since gone on the record to claim that Turkish officials are lying.
Captain Konstantin Murakhtin was rescued with the help of Syrian special forces after a harrowing 12 hour rescue operation, and was taken to Russia’s air base in Lakatia. He recently spoke to several Russian reporters at a press conference, and told them that he was very familiar with the area, and that “It’s impossible that we violated their airspace even for a second...We were flying at an altitude of 6,000 meters in completely clear weather, and I had total control of our flight path throughout.” He further added that he was given no warning before the attack.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 16:00
While so much hope is pinned on El Nino relieving California’s drought in early 2016, climatologists suggest tempering that optimism a little as what is really needed is snow. “Since it has been dry for so long, people get excited,” says one hydrologist, but, as Bloomberg reports, without snow “the notion of fully recovering from the drought is extremely unlikely,” as if the storms come in as rain, or the mountain snow can’t pile up high enough, a lot of water will be lost.
California is in its fourth year of drought and almost the entire state is abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor in Lincoln, Nebraska.
Improvement is possible. However, the drought will certainly go into a fifth year, according to the forecast from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. As Bloomberg reports,
gata.org / By Mike Kentz, Reuters / November 25, 2015
NEW YORK — A class-action lawsuit, filed today, accuses 10 of Wall Street’s biggest banks and two trading platforms of conspiring to limit competition in the $320 trillion market for interest rate swaps.
The class action lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan, accuses Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Barclays, BNP Paribas, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and the Royal Bank of Scotland of colluding to prevent the trading of interest rate swaps on electronic exchanges, like the ones on which stocks are traded.
davidstockmanscontracorner.com / By John Crudele at New York Post /
Today Jack Ciesielski and I will to try to scare some sense into you.
Who is Ciesielski, and why would he want to frighten you? It’ll take some time to answer that. First things first.
The stock market has been more or less flat most of this year. But at times — like for the past month or so — stock prices have climbed as if Wall Street didn’t have a concern in the world.
Terrorism hasn’t fazed the stock market. Nor has the fact that the Federal Reserve is threatening — yet again — to raise interest rates. Weak corporate profits and revenue declines? Nah, Wall Street doesn’t give a damn about them either.
This column will show you why the performance of companies should be of great concern — and not only because they are, on the surface, lousy but also because accounting tricks are hiding the true horror story. That’s where Ciesielski comes in, but he’ll have to wait in the wings for his turn.
Everyone who reads this column should already know what price-to-earnings ratios are. But just in case you don’t, here’s the explanation: Price-to-earnings — or P/E — are the price of a share of stock compared with a company’s earnings on a per-share basis.
That’s a mouthful. To make it simple, let’s say a company — I’ll call it John’s Co. — earned $1 a share in 2015.
Let’s say investors are buying and selling John’s Co. shares on Nasdaq at $14 each. (I picked Nasdaq because it will piss off the New York Stock Exchange that I didn’t list my company on the “Big Board.”) So the price of $14 a share compared with the $1-per-share earnings gives my company a P/E of 14 to 1.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 17:00
A year and a half ago, in May of 2014, when Bank of America’s chief economist Ethan Harris decided to try his hand at long term (really long-term) forecasts, he made several predictions: that 2015 GDP would be 3.3%, that the long-term potential growth rate of the economy is 2.2%, and that the long-term unemployment rate is 6%.
One year later, we yet again see just why economists tend to be a source of amusement everywhere they go, because moments ago the same Mr. Harris just admitted that 2015 GDP would actually be 2.5% (at best, and realistically 2.1% if Q4 GDP ends up being 1.8% as the Atlanta Fed forecasts), that the long-term growth rate is now lower at 2.0%, even as the long-term unemployment rate has mysteriously declined to 5%, or in other words, a lower potential growth rate results in lower unemployment.
Here is what Harris predicted for the “long-term” in early 2014:
This month, already vast China gold reserves grew even larger…
The Shandong Provincial No. 3 Institute of Geological and Mineral Survey announced on Nov. 9 it discovered a 470.4-ton gold deposit in the East China Sea. That’s the largest and first-ever undersea gold mine found in the country. At the current price of gold, that amount is worth roughly $16.4 billion.
China has noticeably increased efforts to mine and stockpile gold this year.
The Shandong Provincial No. 3 Institute of Geological and Mineral Survey announced on Nov. 9 it discovered a 470.4-ton gold deposit in the East China Sea. That’s the largest and first-ever undersea gold mine found in the country.
As we inch further into the future and evermore closer to the next, and certainly last, world war, it seems proper to give pause and consider the significance of the fact that much of the information provided on world events is dreadfully compromised by corporate and political propagandists.
Mainstream media, with its exceptional reach, is able to mold the public’s first impression of any global event thereby establishing the ‘official story,’ the one that is repeated again and again during the first moments of a crisis. They capitalize on the immediate shock value of an act of extraordinary violence or unrest to mold public perception into conformity with a narrative that will become the abiding fiction by which any further substantive investigation of the event must be measured against.
9/11 is perhaps the best example of this, as nearly 15 years afterwards, an incredible amount of information and research has become available to the public, at least enough to unseat the official version of events and inspire a deeper investigation, yet contrary reporting is still not taken seriously at all by mainline media outlets.
Kiev bans all flights from Russia, doesn’t pay for gas, and keeps Crimea in the dark, major offensive coming soon. Russian pilot rescued, says Turkey gave no warning. Russia cutting off business ties with Turkey. Turkey is lying about where the plane was because pilot was rescued in Syria. US preparing for the next false flag event and the countdown has begun.
gata.org / By Jonathan Stempel, Reuters / November 25, 2015
Pacific Investment Management Co. and other investors have sued Citigroup Inc. over the bank’s alleged failure to properly monitor toxic securities backed by more than $13.8 billion of mortgage loans, resulting in $2.3 billion of losses.
According to a complaint filed Tuesday night in a New York state court in Manhattan, Citigroup breached its duties as trustee for the 25 private-label trusts dating from 2004 to 2007 by ignoring “pervasive and systemic deficiencies” in how the underlying loans were underwritten or being serviced.
The investors said Citigroup looked askance at the loans’ “abysmal performance” out of fear it might “jeopardize its close business relationships” with loan servicers including Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., or prompt them to retaliate over its own problem loans. …
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 15:19
Late last month, Sweden tripled down on QE, as the Riksbank announced it would expand its asset purchases by SEK65 billion. Or, visually:
The recent history of Swedish monetary policy is viewed by some as a cautionary tale about what can happen when a central bank attempts to normalize policy too “early.” As a reminder, the Riskbank began raising rates in 2010. Reminiscing about the bank’s decision four years later, Paul Krugman blew a gasketon the way to accusing Sweden of being a nefarious lot of job hating heretics hell bent on perpetuating global inequality by enriching creditors at the expense of impoverished debtors.
Of course Krugman needn’t have been so hard on the Riksbank. After all, they reversed course a little over a year later and since then, it’s been nothing but easing as the repo rate fell 35 bps into negative territory.
With everyone focused on the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the fact that the ECB is preparing to unleash a monetary bazooka, today King World News thought it was a good idea to take a step back and look at the big picture of the war between gold and the Federal Reserve. This led to a remarkable question: Are these massive market distortions created by the Fed and other Western central banks leading to financial chaos that will propel the price of gold to $20,000?
“If the Fed raises interest rates at the beginning of a recession they could trigger a stock market crash and depression. Could they be that stupid?” — Michael Belkin, the man who advises the most prominent sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, and institutional funds in the world.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 12:47
“The future of the company seems very black,” notes on trader as the bonds and stocks of Spanish renewbles form Abengoa lives up to its name and files for creditor protection, just as we warned was likely. With the stock crashing 70% to 28c and 4-month bonds trading at just 22c on the dollar,market participants face an almost total loss.. but, as we detailed previously, it is the American taxpayer – who thanks to Ex-Im Bank loans to keep this zombie alive – face losses of $230 million as Spain’s Solyndra exposes another symptom of the Oligrachic ignorance of where the money comes from.
Restructring efforts of the past have failed,as Bloomberg reports, Abengoa SA’s bonds and stock tumbled to records after the embattled renewable-energy company said it was seeking preliminary protection from creditors following the breakdown of talks with a new investor.
Our government would like us to think that drones are a precision weapon, and an essential tool in the war on terror. In reality, the drone program kills far more civilians than terrorists, which ultimately inspires more people to join terror groups. You have to wonder, what is it like to be a crew member for one of these extrajudicial assassination machines, and how do these people cope with such a horrifying job?
According to four former drone operators, they do a lot of drugs. Alcoholism is rampant, and many of the operators use bath salts and synthetic marijuana, which don’t show up in drug tests. They do this to “bend that reality and try to picture yourself not being there.” Oftentimes, they are impaired during their missions.
Consumer Confidence plunges. Continuous jobless claims start to rise during the holiday season. Personal spending misses while people save their money for the collapse. Durable good orders signal a deep depression. New home sales miss expectations as prices continue to fall. Mortgage applications decline once again.US manufacturing declines.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 11:45
The 2 Year auction was strong, the 5 Year auction yesterday was mixed, but one word can best describe demand for today’s issuance for “curve belly” 7 Year paper: blistering.
Moments ago, the 7 Year When Issued was trading at 2.028, expecting some serious concessions into the auction. Not only did these not materialize but the auction came in far better than expected, pricing in at 2.013%, a whopping 1.5 bps through the When Issued. The Bid to Cover was a strong 2.511, well above the 2.46 TTM average, with 56% of the auction going to indirects – above the 12 month average of 54.6%, 13.5% to Directs, which was also above average, leaving 30.5% for the Dealers.
market-ticker.org / by Karl Denninger / Nov 25, 2015
This is a bummer, but it points out that human stupidity knows few boundaries, and when mixed with “matters of the heart” it can (and often does) get you killed.
An Austrian teen who ran away to Syria last year to marry an ISIS fighter was beaten to death when she had a change of heart and tried to escape from the terror group, local media reported.
Yeah, well, marrying a musloid nutjob who believes in cutting off heads is pretty far up on the list of human idiocy. It’s not like these people haven’t made well-known their penchant for doing that crap either; the entire world has seen their “ideology” in action over the last many years.
Wake up folks, especially if you’re young and idealistic. A mountain lion doesn’t care that you’re vegan: He is a carnivore, and you look very much like dinner.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 11:36
The S&P 500 is up 0.44% in the last three days, a solid return for the buy-and-hold’ers thinking about long-term appreciation. However, under the covers of that move is, just as we predicted, a massive and accelerating short-squeeze is underway, dragging the “Most Shorted” stocks up 4.65% since Friday’s open as investors bet increasingly on central-bank-inspired expectations that hedge fund blow ups will force domino-like, sequential short squeezes.
One reason is that NATO governments lie every time that they open their mouths.
A second reason is that Turkey’s claim that the SU-24 was in Turkey’s airspace for 17 seconds but only traveled 1.15 miles means that the SU-24 was flying at stall speed! The entire Western media was too incompetent to do the basic math!
A third reason is that, assuming Turkey’s claim of a 17 second airspace violation is true, 17 seconds is not long enough for a Turkish pilot to get clearance for such a serious and reckless act as shooting down a Russian military aircraft. If the SU-24 was flying at a normal speed rather than one that would be unable to keep the aircraft aloft, the alleged airspace violation would not have been long enough to be noticed. A shootdown had to have been pre-arranged. The Turks, knowing that the Russians were foolishly trusting to the agreement that there be no air to air encounters, told pilots to look for an opportunity. In my recent article, I gave a reason for this reckless act:
The Fed has kept its target interest rate at zero since 2008. The central bank is presently mulling the first interest rate hike since 2006 when it concludes its Dec. 15-16 meeting.
Defending the Fed’s stretch of historic low interest rates is something theFederal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been asked to do myriad times over the last several years. But Nader’s letter took a personal swipe at Yellen.
Here’s what drove Yellen’s unapologetic reply.
Nader’s Personal Hit to Yellen on Current Federal Reserve Interest Rates
Nader’s letter suggested that Yellen consult her economist husband about what to do on rates. Yellen is married to George Akerlof, the 2001 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
“Chairwoman Yellen, I think you should sit down with your Nobel Prize winning husband, economist George Akerlof, who is known to be consumer-sensitive. Together, figure out what to do for tens of millions of Americans who, with more interest income, could stimulate the economy by spending toward the necessities of life.”
After the letter was released, a number of commentators called Nader’s remarks sexist.
zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 13:10
Turkey has a right to defend itself and its airspace, President Obama said on Tuesday after Ankara’s F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 which Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claims ventured into Turkish airspace for a grand total of 17 seconds.
Similarly, Erdogan said on Wednesday that Turkey was simply acting to defend its security.
Of course you can take everything Erdogan says with a grain of salt because if we’re being honest, he’s an autocrat and largely thanks to his government, Turkey is a tyrannical frontier market masquerading as a largely developed democracy.
“You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the wealthy out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend, is about the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.” ― Adrian Rogers