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Revolver Maps

One Trader Warns “The Game Is Starting To Change Before Your Eyes”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 11:54 AM

In a market that can barely fog a mirror with its heartbeat, a sudden lurch lower – as we experienced overnight across all global risky asset classes – especially on the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, has sparked a cavalacade of “this is it” narratives as well as “this time is different” memes. However, as former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, no matter how much traders may want to ignore reality, the game is starting to change before our eyes…

As BlackRock CIO Rick Reider noted earliermajor central banks flooded the global financial system with nearly $10 trillion in liquidity since 2008, but now we’re beginning to unwind…

Via Bloomberg,

If Catalonia didn’t exist, we would have to invent it. If only for a day…

Stocks are down today and someone has to be assigned the blame.

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Sinking Apartments (Not From Storms)

wallstreetexaminer.com / by Jeffrey P. Snider via Alhambra Investments / 

Housing construction continues to slow in 2017, dragged down by fewer multi-family projects. Total permits and starts have essentially flatlined since 2015, a further slowdown from one already slowdown. The single-family market is still growing but at a historically tepid pace, leaving the pace of construction overall to be dictated by weakness in apartment development.

In September 2017, new permits for multi-family structures dropped on a seasonally-adjusted basis to 360k from a significantly revised (downward) 436k in August. The 6-month average, a better measure smoothing out very high monthly variations in this series, has been less than 400k for each of the past five months. At the most recent peak, the average was 481k in July 2015.

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Debt At All Time Highs Yet Central Bankers Will Never Stop Printing | Golden Rule Radio

McAlvany Financial, Published on Oct 19, 2017

The debt is at all time highs yet central bankers will never stop printing. Despite global debt reaching the highest levels in history, the central banks still continue to print and try to control our “destiny,” at the cost of your savings, buying power, and quality of life. Pre-crash stock indicators are screaming right now, yet the DOW reacts to nothing, it only continues upward. Make no mistake, this is the calm before the storm. We’ll discuss how tangible assets like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium can help you hedge your risk and preserve your wealth during the dangerous financial times to come.

The World’s Largest ICO Is Imploding After Just 3 Months

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 1:46 PM

Earlier this summer, Tezos smashed existing sales records in the white-hot IPO market after the company’s pitch to build a better blockchain for cryptocurrencies made it one of the buzziest ICOs in the world. As we noted at the time, the company capitalized on that buzz by courting VC firms and other institutional investors with a $50 million token pre-sale. After the company opened up selling to the broader public, demand soared as investors greedily bought up tokens in spite of glitches that threatened to derail the sale early on. By the end of its weeks-long token sale in July, Tezos had sold more than $230 million.

Now, Tezos is proving that authorities in the US and China were on to something when they decided to crack down on the ICO market, which has become a cesspool of fraud and abuse. To wit, the company’s management revealed this week that progress on its vaunted product has stalled as it has struggled to recruit engineering talent, and an acrimonious dispute between several of the company’s leading figures has spilled out into the open.

As WSJ’s Paul Vigna reports, “a battle between the founders of the company and the head of the Swiss foundation they installed to give it more independence has put most trading of Tezos coins on ice, possibly until early next year.”

The shakeup started after Tezos founders Arthur and Kathleen Breitman reported the delays in a blog post published Wednesday. But even more alarming, the pair accused Johann Gevers, the head of a Swiss foundation which oversees their funds, of attempting to overpay himself using the massive pot of investor capital – despite the fact that the company will likely blow through its promised deadline of allocating tokens to buyers by December (the tokens have yet to be created).

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How China’s Skewed Sex Ratio Is Making President Xi’s Job a Whole Lot Harder

Chinese President Xi Jinping promised the usual economic reforms in his speech to the Party Congress. VOA News

financialsense.com / THE CONVERSATION / 10/19/2017

David SkidmoreDrake University

As odd as it sounds, China’s economic policy is being held hostage by its heavily skewed sex ratio.

China’s excess of young, unmarriageable males poses an acute dilemma for President Xi Jinping and other leaders as they set the country’s path for the next five years during the 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress, which opened on Oct. 18.

After years of heavy spending and investment to boost growth and employment, China is at risk of economic stagnation if it doesn’t restructure the economy. Yet there is peril that doing so will lead to dangerous levels of unrest among the millions of unmarried men – known as “bare branches” – who will be laid off from shuttered unneeded steel, coal and auto factories.

So far Xi has tempered reform and kept the money taps open in order to avoid political instability. As the costs of domestic economic imbalances rise and international pressures to cut excess industrial capacity grow, Xi will have to decide what to do about the bare branches strewn in his way. And that won’t be an easy task, as my research on the intersection of economics and politics suggests.

China’s Spending Spree

This dilemma has been building for almost a decade since Chinese leaders responded to the 2008 global financial crisis by channeling massive investments into infrastructure and heavy industry to sustain economic growth and prevent political unrest.

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Introducing Pirates Without Borders

corbettreport, Published on Oct 19, 2017

BofA Lists 10 Triggers For The Next Crash: “It’s Coming Between Thanksgiving And Valentine’s Day”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017

Back in mid-July, BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett predicted that the “most dangerous moment for market will come in 3 or 4 months.” Well, we are now “between 3 and 4” months since that particular forecast was made, and the “most dangerous moment” we have experienced since, ironically, has been today’s modest selloff on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday. So looking back at his forecast, has Hartnett thrown in the towel on calls for a correction, and joined all the other BTFDers? Not quite: instead, Hartnett’s thesis has merely shifted, and he now contends that having entered the market’s melt up somewhat late, a bubble which as shown before has unleashed raging purchases of tech stocks and credit, especially junk bonds…

***

… he expects the upside S&P momentum to linger, bursting to 2,670 before finally getting swept under the bubble tide. When will this happen? “We believe sometime between Thanksgiving & Valentine’s Day,” or between 1 and 4 months, so even as Hartnett keeps the long-end of his forecast horizon fixed, he continues to expect that the next major move lower may come as soon as 1 month from today.

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Tax Reform, Beige Book, Fed Chief, and Gold

sunshineprofits.com / ARKADIUSZ SIEROŃ / OCTOBER 19, 2017

This week, quite a few interesting things happened. How could they affect the gold market?

Wednesday was full of important events, which could have a non-negligible impact on the gold prices. First, it turns out that the Republicans would have enough votes in the U.S. Senate to pass a budget which is key to introducing tax reform. This is because a budget approved by both the Senate and House of Representatives would allow the Republicans to use a reconciliation procedure, which enables to pass tax legislation with a simple majority, rather than the 60 votes normally required. This is bad news for the gold market, as the strengthened odds of introducing tax reform translate into a more bullish stock market and expectations of a more hawkish Fed.

Yesterday, the U.S. central bank published the latest Beige Book. The report showed that economic activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate. Importantly, it also indicated that inflationary pressures have remained modest since the previous report. The report confirms that inflation is still subdued, but it should not significantly alter the Fed’s stance. The impact on the gold market should be minimal.

When it comes to other data, the housing market – reflected by tumbling housing starts and building permits – showed weakness in September. But gold was little moved. On the other hand, the Empire State Index jumped to a three-year high in October, while industrial production rebounded (despite hurricanes) in September after two straight declines. On balance, the current economic outlook seems to be positive, which is not good news for safe-havens, such as gold.

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What a Gold-Backed Yuan and Cryptocurrencies May Mean for the Dollar

mises.org / Doug French / October 20, 2017

Amoungst all the crypto news this, and crypto news that, was a tiny item appearing in the Nikkei Asian Review on September 1st. Reporting from Denpasar, Indonesia, Damon Evans wrote, “China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold in what analysts say could be a game-changer for the industry.”

Not bitcoin backed, not ethereum backed, g-o-l-d backed. How low tech of the Chinese. For the moment, oil is priced in dollars, whether it’s Brent or West Texas Intermediate.

Evans explained,

China’s move will allow exporters such as Russia and Iran to circumvent U.S. sanctions by trading in yuan. To further entice trade, China (the world’s largest oil importer) says the yuan will be fully convertible into gold on exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

This will be China’s first commodities futures contract open to foreign companies such as investment funds, trading houses and petroleum companies.

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O’Keefe Drops Part IV: 20-Year NYT Veteran Exposes “Culture Of Anti-Trump Bias”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 

First it was Audience Strategy Editor, Nick Dudich, who admitted to repeatedly promoting content that intentionally sought to, among other things, damage President Trump’s businesses as a means towards forcing his resignation.

Next came the NYT’s senior Home Page Editor, Des Shoe, who described Trump as an “oblivious idiot” and Pence as “f***ing horrible”while admitting that her company’s perpetual bias and ‘shocking’ headlines were often nothing more than click-bait designed to attract readers in a hyper-competitive industry.

Now, James O’Keefe and the team at Project Veritas would like for you to meet Todd Gordon, a 20-year veteran IT consultant at the New York Times who says the “culture of anti-Trump bias” has become so pervasive at the Times that not a single person within the organization has a positive opinion of the President.

PV Journalist: “Have you ever had anybody in New York Times’ office come up to you and say, I actually enjoy Trump?”

Todd Gordon: “No, no, no.”

PV Journalist: “Really?”

Todd Gordon: “Not one person.”

PV Journalist: “Not one person?”

Todd Gordon: “Not one, not one. Everyone hates him. They hate him like the plague dude.  I’m like, beautiful day, today. And they’re like, as good as it could be, fuck Trump. Everywhere I go, everywhere I go they’re like as good as it could be, but we’re fucked.”

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Warning: the Stock Market Rally is on VERY Thin Ice

gainspainscapital.com / Graham Summers / October 19, 2017

The market is on the verge of something serious.

For months we’ve been climbing steadily in a tighter range. Stocks have been BEYOND overbought having gone 300 days without even a 3% pullback.

This latest move has formed a sharp rising wedge pattern that has just broken out to the downside. Stocks need to SERIOUSLY reverse and go parabolic here or the trend has changed.

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Abe’s Third Arrow

marctomarket.com / by Marc Chandler / October 19, 2017

Japan’s Abe’s gamble to call snap elections shortly after the stunning defeat in the Tokyo elections appears likely to pay-off.  He called the bluff of his former defense minister and now Governor of Tokyo Koike who is leading the main opposition party now, the Party of Hope.  The Party of Hope may have over-reached and now appears to be stumbling.   The polls suggest that the LDP may secure more seats in the lower chamber than it a current hold.
Even though the LDP may not need to be in a coalition, it still seems likely that the junior coalition partner, the Komieto Party, will remain in government, even if it loses a few seats.  In other countries, this may not be the case, but in Japan, a coalition is helpful in demonstrating the consensus nature of policy and soften the image of the LDP, which has largely governed Japan with only a few exceptions for more more than 60 years.
Recall that when Abe was first elected, Abenomics was presented as three arrows.  Fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus, and structural reform.  The first two are tangible.  The third is more elusive.   It is more elusive not because it is less real or developed, but because the structural reforms are more numerous and may deny an easy soundbite to capture imaginations, the way that greater public investment or quantitative and qualitative easing and targeting yields are easily grasped.

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Papers Filed To Disbar James Comey Following “False Testimony To Congress”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 

Ty Clevenger, the “crusading lawyer” who has been trying for months to get Hillary and several members of her campaign staff disbarred in every jurisdiction from Little Rock, Arkansas to New York, has now set his sights on a new target: Former FBI Director James Comey. According to the Washington Times, Clevenger filed a bar grievance in New York this week accusing Comey of lying to Congress and destroying potential evidence in the Clinton email scandal, in a process that could end up costing him his law license.

Ty Clevenger filed the grievance in New York, where Mr. Comey was a former U.S. attorney and is licensed to practice law.

Mr. Clevenger said Mr. Comey’s testimony to Congress that he did not predetermine the outcome of the FBI’s probe into former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is belied by revelations this week that he in fact started drafting an exoneration months before even speaking with Mrs. Clinton.

“Insofar as Mr. Comey gave materially false testimony to Congress, it appears that he violated Rules 1.0(w), 3.3(a)(1), and 8.4 of the New York Rules of Professional Conduct,” Mr. Clevenger wrote.

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Uncharted Territory, Spain to Take Over Catalonia Government: What’s the Libertarian Position?

themaven.net / by Mike Mish Shedlock / October 19, 2017

Madrid will suspend Catalonia autonomy on Saturday after Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan president, refused to back down from a declaration of independence. What happens next is unknown. Spain fears violence but it may force new regional elections nonetheless. This is uncharted territory.

The Spanish government is to suspend Catalonia’s autonomy and impose direct rule after the region’s president refused to abandon the push for independence that has led to Spain’s biggest political crisis for 40 years.The announcement of the unprecedented measure came after the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, threatened a unilateral declaration of independence if the Spanish government did not agree to talks on the issue.According to article 155, which has never been used, the Spanish government will need to lodge a formal complaint with Puigdemont, then submit its proposals to the senate for debate and approval. As a result, it will be at least a few days before concrete steps are taken.Tensions in the already fraught impasse rose further this week after a judge at Spain’s national court denied bail to two prominent Catalan independence leaders who are being investigated for alleged sedition.

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New Special Edition Of ‘Fahrenheit 451’ Must Be Heated To Be Read

shtfplan.com / Mac Slavo / October 19th, 2017

The newest edition of the book Fahrenheit 451 is going to be out soon, and ironically, it must be heated up to be read.

For those who haven’t read the book Fahrenheit 451, it’s coming highly recommended.  It tells the story of a dystopian society in which books are outlawed and burned by firemen to prevent citizens from reading them. It follows one fireman’s journey of following orders and questioning authority. Ray Bradbury’s iconic book was originally published in 1953 and will leave a permanent reminder tucked away in the mind as to why free speech should never, under any circumstances, be culled. Simon and Schuster’s website says this is what the book is about:

Guy Montag is a fireman. In his world, where television rules and literature is on the brink of extinction, firemen start fires rather than put them out. His job is to destroy the most illegal of commodities, the printed book, along with the houses in which they are hidden.

Montag never questions the destruction and ruin his actions produce, returning each day to his bland life and wife, Mildred, who spends all day with her television “family.” But then he meets an eccentric young neighbor, Clarisse, who introduces him to a past where people didn’t live in fear and to a present where one sees the world through the ideas in books instead of the mindless chatter of television.

When Mildred attempts suicide and Clarisse suddenly disappears, Montag begins to question everything he has ever known. He starts hiding books in his home, and when his pilfering is discovered, the fireman has to run for his life.

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An Outraged George W. Bush Lashes Out At Trump: “Bigotry Seems Emboldened”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017

Former President George W. Bush came out swinging against the current administration on Thursday, and while he did not name President Castro, Dubya blasted that “bigotry seems emboldened” in the U.S., while urging the country to accept “globalization” – the same globalization which both the IMF, the BIS and even the Federal Reserve now agree and warn has led to record wealth inequality in the US – while rejecting “white supremacy.”

“Bigotry or white supremacy in any form is blasphemy against the American creed,” Bush said.

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Clinton Selling Uranium to Putin Is Not the Endgame-“Can You Hear Me Now?”

thecommonsenseshow.com / By Dave Hodges / October 19th, 2017

I told you so, I told you so, I told you so. I even told you so with much more detail, more than two years ago, than the media is telling you today. This is not the egotistical rant of an insecure journalist. I do not have time for that as ego will not restore our Republic and preserve our right to worship the Lord in the manner that we Christians see fit. I am merely laying a foundation of credibility to reveal what is coming to America.

I going to present the I told you so, beginning two years ago. I am doing so because there are really bad, yet identifiable things coming that all of us need to prepare for. Most readers will not believe what is coming if I do not retrace my steps to over two years ago and, once again, build the case.

Despite the media revelations which validate my prior publications and the events related to Clinton selling Uranium to the Russians, there are major holes in the current reporting. One such related event has to do with why the Bundy’s are in prison. That will be revealed here in this article.

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This billionaire’s “$5 million test” will make you a way better investor

sovereignman.com / Simon Black / October 19, 2017

In 1982, a man named Jim Tisch bought seven supertankers for $42 million. He found them by cold calling companies he found in the Yellow Pages.

Yes, $42 million is a lot of money… but these tankers were each four football fields long. That’s a lot of steel. And they could carry between 2-3 million barrels of oil.

And these ships were built just eight years earlier at a cost of $50 million apiece.

Jim Tisch is the son of the legendary Laurence “Larry” Tisch, the late billionaire founder of Loews. Corp – a conglomerate that has owned hotels, movie theaters, insurance, cigarettes, oil and watches over the years.

And like his Dad, Jim had a nose for value…

Low oil prices in the early 1970’s (around $3 a barrel) caused demand to soar. To keep up with the growing demand, everyone rushed to build supertankers (which can take years to complete).

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The Bids Are In: Amazon Offered Up To $7 Billion In Tax Breaks ($140k Per Employee) For Second U.S. HQ

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 9:35 AM

For the past several months, cities all across the country have been competing for the opportunity to host Amazon’s second headquarters which promises $5 billion in capital investment and 50,000 new jobs over a period of time.  And now that the bids are in, we have the opportunity to review some of the staggering tax subsidies offered to one of Silicon Valley’s biggest companies.

New Jersey apparently ‘wins’ the prize for ‘biggest tax cuts’ after offering $7 billion in state and city tax credits, or roughly $140,000 per job promised by Amazon…which should be plenty to once again thrust Bezos to the top of the world’s richest list. Per Reuters:

New Jersey proposed $7 billion in potential credits against state and city taxes if Amazon locates in Newark and sticks to hiring commitments, according to a Monday news release from the governor’s office.

Across the Hudson River, New York City made a proposal without incentives special for Amazon, though the state is expected to offer some, a spokesman for the city’s economic development corporation said on Wednesday.

And across the country, California is offering some $300 million in incentives over several years and other benefits, the governor said in an Oct. 11 letter to Amazon’s Chief Executive Jeff Bezos, published online by the Orange County Register.

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(ALERT). Today’s Stock Drop Is NOTHING!! Stop! Gold & Silver Higher, Dollar Falls.

Gregory MannarinoPublished on Oct 19, 2017

Global Markets Shaken By Sudden Equity Sell-Off: Hong Kong Crashes, VIX Surges

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 7:09 AM

Has the market’s “melt-up” levitation finally ended? Of course, it could be much worse: as Bloomberg’s Paul Jarvis recalls, thirty years ago on this day traders around the globe were staring at their screens in disbelief as stock markets turned to a sea of red: the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE, DAX and CAC fell -23%, -20%, -10%, -9% and -10% respectively.

Fast forward to 2017 and the day known as Black Monday appears as little more than a blip in U.S. and European stock markets’ relentless progress. Having closed above the 23,000 mark for the first time on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has led markets back from the abyss, rising more than 13-fold since falling 23% in a single trading session on Oct. 19, 1987.

Then again, “all” it took was central banks collectively buying a little over 30% of global GDP in debt over the past 3 decades, and especially in the past 8 years, to create the world’s most artificial “bull market” and “recovery” in history, and one day there will be hell to pay, but not just yet. Instead, on “Not Green Thursday”, traders wake up today to a modern day version of mini Black Monday, in which a sudden “risk-off” equity selloff has swept across global markets during early European trading, before gradually running out of steam, following a day in which the Dow Jones closed at one of its most overbought levels in the past 100 years.

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The World Is Controlled By 150 People

The Daily SheeplePublished on Oct 19, 2017

The Structural Conditions That Will Spark The Coming Economic Crisis

InvestmentWatch

investmentwatchblog.com / BY  · 

by ReadMurrayBookchin

The Great Recession of 2008 has never really ended – it has just been postponed. Since 2008, the world’s major central banks – the Fed, ECB, and BoJ – have massively intervened in the global economy in an unprecedented way, masking the structural unsustainability of the debt fueled financial capitalism that caused 2008 in the first place. To use an analogy, it’s like 2008 was a cliff that we walked off while blindfolded and the central banks have created a rickety bridge in empty space in front of every footstep over the void. But the central banks are starting to believe that the empty void is actually solid ground, and they are about to stop building the bridge while we continue to walk onwards.

The Great Recession was sparked by a complex network of financial products linked to the US housing and debt bubble that popped late in the summer of 2007. Essentially, a bubble is when financial markets inflate prices far above the actual value of something. But what supercharges bubbles is when debt is created to invest in the bubble in the mistaken belief that it cannot pop. When the housing asset bubble popped, it took the credit bubble with it because the massive amount of debt invested in the housing market was now enormously overvalued compared to the fundamental value of real estate that was backing it as collateral. When creditors have to write huge sums of money off their balance sheets, financial panic is born and a financial crisis starts. A financial crisis is really a crisis of liquidity, as nearly everyone is unwilling to lend, spend, or invest money because they either don’t have it or they’re trying to protect whatever they have left.

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Barzani’s Failed Kurdistan Project: A Deathblow To The Partition Of Iraq And Syria

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Oct 19, 2017 4:14 AM

Submitted by Elijah Magnier, Middle East based chief international war correspondent for Al Rai Media

The project to divide Iraq was dealt a deathblow by a decision of the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi to send the Army and the security forces to recover all Iraqi territories controlled by the Kurds of Massoud Barzani. The Kurdish leader was riding the horse of Iraqi partition (in fact, a lame horse) to establish a Kurdish state in the northern part of the country. Following the failure of Barzani’s project in taking advantage of the fight against ISIS and therefore declaring his “state”, every country in the Middle East is abandoning him because no one likes to be associated with failure.

Barzani sent envoys (I personally met some) around the globe who returned with apparently promising results: “over 80 countries promised to recognise the new State of Kurdistan”. These promises turned out to be false (“no friends but the mountains”), other (existing) political alliances turned out to be stronger and Barzani was left alone with his empty promises and unreliable advisers.

Countries of the region – France, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates to start with – are now establishing a clear and unambiguous relationship with Baghdad’s government. Abadi, following an authorization of parliament, used a fist of iron to fragment the partition project – not only of Iraq – but of the entire region, that was supposed to be sparked off by the Kurds in Iraq and in Syria and via the regime change attempt in the Levant.

In less than 48 hours, the Iraqi army, with all its security services (army, popular mobilization units, Counter-Terrorism, Federal Police), extended its control over Kirkuk, Khanaqin (Diyala), Bashiqa, Makhmour (Nineveh) and Sinjar – the city that leads to the borders with Syria. All territories that were established for Baghdad’s control under the US administrator Paul Bremer in 2003-2004 (with the limits of Kurdistan) are back now in place.

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Under The Thumb Of The Banks – Craig Hemke

sprottmoney.com / By Craig Hemke / October 18, 2017

The price of Comex Digital Gold continues to be held hostage by the major Bullion Banks which operate on the Comex in New York. Though some “improvement” in their collective position was noted in the latest bank Participation Report, it is very important to note that The Banks are still as heavily net short as they were at the price peak in the summer of 2016.

We wrote about this recent surge in Bank shorting last month and the article can be found here:https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8554/guard-aga…

In the article, we wrote that the 24 Bank short position in Comex gold had nearly doubled in just two months from 104,788 contracts net short to 213,746 contracts net short. The significance and speed of this rise rivaled what was observed in the first half of 2016 and we all know what followed in the second half of 2016. Namely, a smash in price that flushed the Spec longs back out of the Comex paper gold market and allowed these Banks to buy back and cover many of their short positions.

Specifically, the 24 Bank position, as divulged through the CFTC-generated Bank Participation Report, rose from just 45,259 contracts net short on 1/5/16 to a high of 195,262 contracts net short on 5/3/16. After falling back in June of 2016, this position again hit 191,834 contracts net short on 7/5/16.

From there, as price fell from $1375 to $1175, the 24 Bank position contracted back to just 73,722 contracts net short on 1/3/17.

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