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Revolver Maps

Keep Calm & Carry On

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 17, 2017 5:00 AM

Authored by 720Global’s Michael Liebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

“Before long, we will all begin to find out the extent to which Brexit is a gentle stroll along a smooth path to a land of cake and consumption.” – Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor.

In 1939, the British Government, through the Ministry of Information, produced a series of morale-boosting posters which were hung in public places throughout the British Isles. Faced with German air raids and the imminent threat of invasion, the slogans were aimed at helping the British public brave the testing times that lay ahead. The most enduring of these slogans simply read:

  “Keep Calm and Carry On.”

Ironically, it was the only one of the series that was never actually displayed in public as it was reserved for a German invasion that never transpired. Today, the British Government may wish to summon a fresh propaganda strategy to address a new threat on the horizon, that of the eventuality of Brexit.

The Kingdom Divided

The United Kingdom (UK) is in the process of negotiating out of all policies that, since 1972, formally tied it to the economic dynamics of the broader western European community. Since the unthinkable Brexit vote passage in June 2016, the unthinkable has now become the undoable. The negotiations, policy discussions, logistical considerations and legal wrangling are becoming increasingly problematic as they affect every industry in the UK from trade and finance to hazardous materials, produce, air travel and even Formula 1 racing.

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The Demise of Dissent: Why the Web Is Becoming Homogenized

charles hugh smith

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2017

In other words, we’ll be left with officially generated and sanctioned fake news and “approved” dissent.

We’ve all heard that the problem with the web is fake news, i.e. unsubstantiated or erroneous content that’s designed to mislead or sow confusion.

The problem isn’t just fake news–it’s the homogenization of the web, that is, the elimination or marginalization of independent voices of skepticism and dissent.

There are four drivers of this homogenization:

1. The suppression of dissent under the guise of ridding the web of propaganda and fake news–in other words, dissent is labeled fake news as a cover for silencing critics and skeptics.

2. The sharp decline of advertising revenues flowing to web publishers, both major outlets and small independent publishers like Of Two Minds.

3. The majority of advert revenues now flow into the coffers of the quasi-monopolies Facebook and Google.

4. Publishers are increasingly dependent on these quasi-monopolies for readers and visibility: any publisher who runs afoul of Facebook and Google and is sent to Digital Siberia effectively vanishes.

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Rigging Of The Bond Market Has Now Hit A Fever Pitch, See It In Real Time.

Gregory MannarinoPublished on Nov 17, 2017

Bill Blain: “Stock Markets Don’t Matter; The Great Crash Of 2018 Will Start In The Bond Market”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 17, 2017 8:12 AM

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

The Great Crash of 2018? Look to the bond markets to trigger Mayhem!

I had the impression the markets had pretty much battened down for rest of 2017 – keen to protect this year’s gains. Wrong again. It seems there is another up-step. After the People’s Bank of China dropped $47 bln of money into its financial system (where bond yields have risen dramatically amid growing signs of wobble), the game’s afoot once more. The result is global stocks bound upwards. Again. It suggest Central Banks have little to worry about in 2018 – if markets get fraxious, just bung a load of money at them.

Personally, I’m not convinced how the tau of monetary market distortion is a good thing? Markets have become like Pavlov’s dog: ring the easy money bell, and markets salivate to the upside.

Of course, stock markets don’t matter.

The truth is in bond markets. And that’s where I’m looking for the dam to break. The great crash of 2018 is going to start in the deeper, darker depths of the Credit Market.

I’ve already expressed my doubts about the long-term stability of certain sectors – like how covenants have been compromised in high-yield even as spreads have compressed to record tights over Treasuries, about busted European regions trying to pass themselves off as Sovereign States (no I don’t mean the Catalans, I mean Italy!), and how the bond market became increasingly less discerning on risk in its insatiable hunt for yield. Chuck all of these in a mixing bowl and the result is a massive Kerrang as the gears of finance explode!

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GSR Interviews LOUIS NAVELLIER – Nov 14, 2017 Nugget

GoldSeek.com RadioPublished on Nov 17, 2017

“Economic Development” Is a Corporate Welfare Scheme

corrupt.PNG

mises.org /  / Nov 17, 2017

The Beacon Center, a libertarian think tank based in Nashville, has released a new film highlighting and describing the impact of corporate welfare in Tennessee. Starring University of Tennessee professor Glenn Reynolds, Rigged tells the story of small business owners in Memphis who were harmed by the massive tax breaks which the Shelby County government bestowed upon the furniture giant Ikea for opening a location in the Memphis area. The film has sparked a renewed focus on cronyism across the state.

Just recently, the four largest media firms in the state published the results of a ten month investigation into Tennessee’s subsidy and incentive programs. They found that the volunteer state’s corporate welfare programs amount to $2.5 billion annually. The Times Free Press reports that the Department of Economic and Community Development, whose raison d’être is to dole out state privileges, has increased its spending by 80 percent since Bill Haslam became Governor.

The investigation also lamented the lack of oversight and accountability. The Times Free Press concludes that it is impossible to conclude if these corporate welfare programs have succeeded even on their own metric, creating jobs. Some officials didn’t even have records of the size of their handouts. However, one does not need to have numbers to prove that cronyism is inherently detrimental to an economy.

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Mueller Subpoena Spooks Dollar, Sends European Stocks, US Futures Lower

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 17, 2017 7:04 AM

Yesterday’s torrid, broad-based rally looked set to continue overnight until early in the Japanese session, when the USD tumbled and dragged down with it the USDJPY, Nikkei, and US futures following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena to more than a dozen top Trump administration officials in mid October.

And as traders sit at their desks on Friday, U.S. index futures point to a lower open as European stocks fall, struggling to follow Asian equities higher as the euro strengthened at the end of a tumultuous week. Chinese stocks dropped while Indian shares and the rupee gain on Moody’s upgrade. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.1% on the day, but was heading for a 0.1% fall on the week. The dollar declined against most major peers, while Treasury yields dropped and oil rose.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated before turning lower as much as 0.3% in brisk volumes, dropping towards the 200-DMA, although about 1% above Wednesday’s intraday low; weakness was observed in retail, mining, utilities sectors. In the past two weeks, the basic resources sector index is down 6%, oil & gas down 5.8%, autos down 4.9%, retail down 3.4%; while real estate is the only sector in green, up 0.1%. The Stoxx 600 is on track to record a weekly loss of 1.3%, adding to last week’s sell-off amid sharp rebound in euro, global equity pullback. The Euro climbed for the first time in three days after ECB President Mario Draghi said he was optimistic for wage growth in the region, although stressed the need for patience, speaking in Frankfurt. European bonds were mixed. The pound pared some of its earlier gains after comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis signaling a continued stand-off in negotiations with the European Union.

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to the WSJ report that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting ‘aggressive’ work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2% as the yen jumped to the strongest in four-weeks. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.5% as the PBoC’s reversel in liquidity injections (overnight net drain of 10bn yuan) did little to boost risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. Indian stocks and the currency advanced after Moody’s Investors Service raised the nation’s credit rating.

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President Trump’s Biggest Blunder

thecommonsenseshow.com / By Dave Hodges / November 17th, 2017

AG Sessions has announced that he is refusing to prosecute Wasserman Schultz and Lois Lerner despite overwhelming evidence against them.

Didn’t President Trump promise to drain the swamp? Then, why is the swamp still growing?

America is outraged and here is the story.

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Cowboys, Truckers and Us

ericpetersautos.com / Eric Peters / November 17, 2017

Being a trucker – especially an owner-operator – used to be a lot like being a cowboy was back in the 1800s.

On your own timetable, beholden to none – so long as the cows (or the cargo) got where they needed to be on time. Independent, free.

Which, naturally, is why both avocations had to be stomped.

Cowboys became ranch hands, no longer free to roam.But at least they aren’t subject to 24-7 recording of their doings  – as truckers soon will be. It will be done via something called an Electronic Logging Device (ELD) which is basically a mobile, in-truck Panopticon – a rig for the rig that sees all and knows all – and narcs all, to the Appropriate Authorities.

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After Slamming Bitcoin As A Money Laundering Tool, JPMorgan Busted For Money Laundering

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 17, 2017

Score one for the poetic irony pages.

Two months after JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon lashed out at bitcoin, calling it a “fraud” which is “worse than tulip bulbs, warning it won’t end well”, will “blow up” and “someone is going to get killed” and threatened that “any trader trading bitcoin” will be “fired for being stupid” as it was merely a tool for money-laundering, today Swiss daily Handelszeitung reported that the Swiss subsidiary of JPMorgan was sanctioned by the Swiss regulator, FINMA, over money laundering and “seriously violating supervision laws.”

As the newspaper adds, the Swiss sanctions relate to breaches of due diligence in connection with money laundering standards. In other words, JPMorgan was actively aiding and abeting criminal money laundering.

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Huge Crude Stakes

wallstreetexaminer.com / by  • 

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Alhambra Investments. To view original, click hereReposted with permission.

There is a titanic struggle going on right now in the oil market. On the one side of the futures market are the usual pace setters, the money managers. Last week, the latest COT data available, they went the most net long since March. If it continues, it will close in on the most positive futures position since the record long they established back in February.

Normally that would be insanely bullish for oil prices. But just as in February/March another part of the futures market has intervened on the other side. Back then it was the oil producers who rising inventory forced into a larger and larger offsetting net short (hedge).

This time, however, it is the swap dealers who are short for reasons that aren’t really clear. The weekly COT report for the last week in October showed a record net short for dealers, just beating their most extreme position from the middle of 2013 at -424k contracts. In the first week and November, they blew away that record at -470k.

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Draghi Speech: Everything Is Awesome In Europe, No Signs Of Systemic Risks

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 17, 2017 7:18 AM

Mario Draghi gave the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress this morning in which he focused on the strong outlook for the Eurozone economy and how his monetary policy is playing a vital role. The speech was peppered with upbeat phrases and adjectives like solid, robust, unabated, endogenous propagation, resilient, remarkable and ongoing. According to Draghi.

The euro area is in the midst of a solid economic expansion. GDP has risen for 18 straight quarters, with the latest data and surveys pointing to unabated growth momentum in the period ahead. From the ECB’s perspective, we have increasing confidence that the recovery is robust and that this momentum will continue going forward.

Draghi is confident that future growth will be unabated for three reasons.

  • Previous headwinds have dissipated;
  • Drivers of growth are increasingly endogenous rather than exogenous; and
  • The Eurozone economy is more resilient to new shocks.

In terms of previous headwinds, Draghi notes that global growth and trade have recovered, while the eurozone has de-leveraged.

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Reality On So-Called ‘Tax Cuts’

market-ticker.org / by Karl Denninger / 2017-11-17

Let’s cut the crap, shall we?

Tax cuts have never resulted in any sort of material improvement in the living standard of the ordinary America — which I define as everyone other than the top 1% of earners.

It has simply never happened.

The last time the tax code was “reorganized” you got more buy-backs and stock options issued to executives.

The same thing happened with all the other tax cut packages since.

Further, when we had the so-called “Reagan Tax Reform” Tipper promised to cut spending in order to make them deficit neutral.  He did not do so; no reduction in spending was ever delivered.

This will be no different.  In fact, unlike the Reagan-era game nobody is even claiming to intend to reduce spending.

The chimera of “tax cuts” being “good for business” is nonsense as well.  Almost no corporation actually pays the tax rate claimed, especially large firms.  They all cheat — Apple has been caught in the “Paradise Papers” and others have as well.  The claim of “repatriation” leading to some sort of boom in investment and wages is nonsense as well.

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Keiser Report: Business of #Russiagate (E1150)

RT, Published on Nov 16, 2017

Rob From The Middle Class Economics

deviantinvestor.com / by  / 

Much of our financial world functions as a “Rob from the Middle Class” economy. The system robs from the middle class and poor via “money printing” and inflation of the currency supply!

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Little benefit comes from complaining about the process or fighting it. Understand the process, work around it, and use it constructively.

Explaining Our Rob from the Middle Class Economy:

Governments, individuals, pension funds and corporations are increasingly financialized and dependent upon debt, central bank interventions and currency devaluations. Wages are less relevant in a financialized economy because wages rise slowly while debt, currency in circulation, and paper financial assets increase rapidly.

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NATO: A Dangerous Paper Tiger

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 17, 2017

The Chinese have a genius for pithy expressions and few are more packed with meaning, while immediately understandable, than “paper tiger”. NATO is one, but paper tigers that overestimate their powers can be dangerous.

***

Some Russians are concerned that there are today more hostile troops at the Russian border than at any time since 1941. While this is true, it is not, at the moment, very significant. The Germans invaded the USSR with nearly 150 divisions in 1941. Which, as it turned out, were not enough.

Today NATO has – or claims to have – a battle group in each of the three Baltic countries and one in Poland: pompously titled Enhanced Forward Presence. The USA has a brigade and talks of another. A certain amount of heavy weaponry has been moved to Europe. These constitute the bulk of the land forces at the border. They amount to, at the most optimistic assessment, assuming everything is there and ready to go, one division. Or, actually, one division equivalent (a very different thing) from 16 (!) countries with different languages, military practices and equipment sets and their soldiers ever rotating through. And, in a war, the three in the Baltics would be bypassed and become either a new Dunkirk or a new Cannae. All for the purpose, we are solemnly told, of sending “a clear message that an attack on one Ally would be met by troops from across the Alliance“. But who’s the “message” for? Moscow already has a copy of the NATO treaty and knows what Article V says.

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Business Cycles and Inflation – Part I

acting-man.com /  / November 17, 2017

Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q4 2017 –  Special Guest Ben Hunt, Author and Editor of Epsilon Theory

The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board took place on October 10 and we had the great pleasure to be joined by special guest Ben Hunt this time, who is probably known to many of our readers as the main author and editor of Epsilon Theory. He is also chief risk officer at investment management firm Salient Partners. As always, a transcript of the discussion is available for download below.

As usual, we will add a few words here to expand a little on the discussion. A wide range of issues relevant to the markets was debated at the conference call, but we want to focus on just one particular point here that we only briefly mentioned in the discussion. In fact, as you will see we are about to go off on quite a tangent  (note: Part II will be posted shortly as well).

Among the things Ben Hunt specializes in are the narratives accompanying economic and financial trends, and not to forget, economic and monetary policy, which inform the “Common Knowledge Game” (in his introductory remarks, Ronald Stoeferle provides this brief definition: “It’s not what the crowd believes that’s important; it’s what the crowd believes that the crowd believes”). This reminded us of something George Soros first mentioned in a speech he delivered in the early 1990s:

Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited.

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An Unexplained Light Flash Over Phoenix Was Captured On Security Cameras

shtfplan.com / Mac Slavo / November 16th, 2017

A bright flash ripped across Phoenix, Arizona’s night sky last night, terrifying residents. The mysterious flash was caught on security cameras as concerned onlookers watched.

The remarkable bright object was spotted by numerous people in the area, with reports streaming in from Arizona and the surrounding states, including California, Nevada, Utah, and New Mexico.  

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A Europe We Can Believe In

zerohedge.com / Via Oriental Review / Nov 17, 2017

In early October a group of European intellectuals published a conservative manifesto with 36 tenets defending ‘old Europe’ and its values, which we are republishing today in full:

***

1. Europe is our home.

Europe belongs to us, and we belong to Europe. These lands are our home; we have no other. The reasons we hold Europe dear exceed our ability to explain or justify our loyalty. It is a matter of shared histories, hopes and loves. It is a matter of accustomed ways, of moments of pathos and pain. It is a matter of inspiring experiences of reconciliation and the promise of a shared future. Ordinary landscapes and events are charged with special meaning—for us, but not for others. Home is a place where things are familiar, and where we are recognized, however far we have wandered. This is the real Europe, our precious and irreplaceable civilization.

2. A false Europe threatens us.

Europe, in all its richness and greatness, is threatened by a false understanding of itself. This false Europe imagines itself as a fulfilment of our civilization, but in truth it will confiscate our home. It appeals to exaggerations and distortions of Europe’s authentic virtues while remaining blind to its own vices. Complacently trading in one-sided caricatures of our history, this false Europe is invincibly prejudiced against the past. Its proponents are orphans by choice, and they presume that to be an orphan—to be homeless—is a noble achievement. In this way, the false Europe praises itself as the forerunner of a universal community that is neither universal nor a community.

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Yield Curve to Completely Flatten in 2018: But How?

themaven.net / by Mike Mish Shedlock / November 17, 2017

The T. Rowe Price Group expects the yield curve to completely flatten in 2018. This is not a surprise as I have been commenting the same way for quite some time. The more important question is how? By yields converging up, down, or a mix?

***

Just how much further can the relentless flattening of the U.S. yield curve go? All the way to zero, according to T. Rowe Price Group.

“The peak yield on the 10-year Treasury should roughly approximate where the final level of fed funds settles out, so that to us implies a flat yield curve if we assume the Fed will do two or three hikes in 2018,” Mark Vaselkiv, chief investment officer of fixed income at T. Rowe Price, said at a press briefing. In his eyes, the Fed will likely stay the course, and the difference between short- and long-term debt could reach zero as soon as the second half of next year.

Expectations are beginning to build for the Fed to step up its pace of rate hikes as inflation shows signs of stabilizing and with the lowest unemployment rate since 2000. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among those forecasting that the Federal Open Market Committee next year will likely tighten four times, rather than the three implied in policy makers’ projections.

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The Metals Market Is A Mess And Will Likely Continue To Frustrate You

news.goldseek.com / By Avi Gilburt / Friday, 17 November 2017

First published on Sunday Nov 12 for members:  When I sat down to review how I can update the analysis I provided to our members in my mid-week update, I realized that there is not much more technical analysis I am able to add to what I wrote to our membership in my mid-week analysis, so I am going to repeat it here, with some additional general thoughts below:

While I strive to provide deep insight into the markets I track for you, I am somewhat at a loss in this region with the metals, especially with the various charts presenting quite differently.  

For those that have followed me for years, you know when I am bullish and you know when I am bearish.  And, for the great majority of the time, my bullishness and bearishness have been appropriate to prepare for impending price action.  However, we are now in a region of uncertainty, and I don’t think I can classify it any better than that at this point in time.

In starting with silver, we had a wonderful i-ii set up in the (c) wave of the b-wave higher, as I had been presenting over the last week.  However, the action we have seen this week has stalled and overlapped enough to make this potential much more cloudy now.  While we may still move higher within an ending diagonal, the overall structure has become much more messy.  And, as long as we remain over 16.30, I can still maintain this count, even if we see a more protracted (b) wave.

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Pepe Escobar Live From Baghdad: The Secret Of Iraq’s Renaissance

zerohedge.com / by Pepe Escobar of The Asia Times, via RT.com / Nov 16, 2017

BAGHDAD – On a sandstorm-swept morning in Baghdad earlier last week, Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes, the legendary deputy leader of Hashd al-Shaabi, a.k.a. People Mobilization Units (PMUs) and the actual mastermind of numerous ground battles against ISIS/Daesh, met a small number of independent foreign journalists and analysts.

***

This was a game-changing moment in more ways than one. It was the first detailed interview granted by Mohandes since the fatwa issued by Grand Ayatollah Sistani – the immensely respected marja (source of emulation) and top clerical authority in Iraq – in June 2014, when Daesh stormed across the border from Syria. The fatwa, loosely translated, reads, “It is upon every Iraqi capable of carrying guns to volunteer with the Iraqi Armed Forces to defend the sanctities of the nation.”

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Is New Fed Chief A “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?

goldcore.com / By janskoyles / November 17, 2017

– Is the New Fed Chief Jeremy Powell a “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?
– Trump surrounding himself with elites disconnected from everyday society
– Realities of America’s difficulties not recognised by US power makers
– Powell will likely continue to protect Wall Street over Main Street
– Savers should diversify to protect themselves from Fed’s ponzi policies

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

***

Just like many of his other campaign promises, Trump isn’t doing a great job of draining the swamp. His nominee for Fed Chair is Jerome Powell.

Powell is a ‘swamp critter extraordinaire’ so declared by Bill Bonner last week. We’re inclined to agree. Name-calling is poor sportsmanship when it comes to politics, but hey, Trump started it.

When Trump traveled around the United States campaigning for the most privileged position in the country he lashed out at the seemingly abstract promise to ‘Drain the Swamp’ at every opportunity. He used it to criticise anything he didn’t like about the status-quo.

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Truth is a Pain In YouTube’s Ass

TruthNeverTold, Published on Nov 17, 2017

Satellite Images Reveal North Korea “Aggressively” Working On Ballistic Missile Submarine

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / Nov 16, 2017 

According to the latest analysis of satellite imagery taken at North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard on November 5 conducted by the 38 North website, Pyongyang is pursuing an “aggressive schedule” to build its first operational ballistic missile submarine.

Continued movement of parts and components into and out of the parts yards adjacent to the construction halls indicates an ongoing shipbuilding program, the analysts concluded. “The presence of what appear to be sections of a submarine’s pressure hull in the yards suggests construction of a new submarine, possibly the SINPO-C ballistic missile submarine (SSB)- the follow-on to the current SINPO-class experimental ballistic missile submarine,” 38 North said in the report published today.

***

Additionally, Imagery from November 5 shows two larger circular objects that may be sections of a submarine’s pressure hull: “The diameter of the first object was approximately 7.1 meters, while the diameter of the second starts at approximately 7.1 meters and reduces to approximately 6.1 meters. The larger object has what appears to be two internal cross members that could be used to support decks or internal equipment.”

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